WC: 23.59 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100K: Waves of MomentumYes I still believe the 20 week cycle theory is still valid...lets get that out the way
Volatile stocks like GME are driven by two things mainly: SENTIMENT and the OPTIONS CHAIN
So what I plan to focus on from here on out is MOMENTUM
What I have been focused on behind the scenes is a better way to determine WHEN momentum is picking up so that I can strategically layer in and out with the goal of growing my position over time
I've developed a system that I will be using on GME and all stocks from this point on
Every chart for me starts with understanding the general macro Elliott Wave structure which includes drawing a main macro fib
That main macro fib gives me main longer term targets for the trade..remember each fib is a target for me but im primarily focused on the 0.618, 1.00 and 1.618 fib extensions..so focusing on the chart since the move from last year the next MAJOR FIB TARGET for me is the 0.618 at appox the 56 level
Institutional Trading houses are forward looking and develop a trading thesis for the year that they execute and manage...this process resets every year
So with that in mind I want to understand 2 things each trading year: Whats the VWAP for the year? and what level is everyone at in relation to where they were (aka whats the Volume Point of Control (VPOC))?
Why? Because those tell us where EVERYONE is in relation to VWAP...the direction price moves away from VWAP tells us what the major players intentions are..and i want to FOLLOW THE MONEY
But in order for price to move away from VWAP..MOMENTUM has to BUILD and SUSTAIN
There are many ways to measure momentum on a chart but the way that works best for me is to focus on the RATE OF CHANGE (ROC) of PRICE & VOLUME
As mentioned last week Ive developed and tuned a custom indicator to help me intimately understand ROC
Im focusing on four time frames: Yearly, 3 Month, 3 Week and 3 Day
Alignment= same timeframe color and position in relation to zero line
Alignment = Strength= look to BUY
Not in alignment= Weakness= look to SELL
NOTE: This view is what you will primarily see posted going forward as this is what im using on ALL stocks to trade in and out
Cant wait to see how this chart looks by year end :)
GOOD TRADING TO YOU ALL!!!
Gme20weekcycle
WC: 23.46 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100K: Cycles & MomentumLet me start by saying that I still do not think the 20 Week Cycle Theory has been invalidated
We are only a couple weeks in on what is again a 20 WEEK CYCLE
With that in mind based on the cycle view displayed, at this point, I have to assume this cycle will be similar to the last cycles in that the price appreciation should take place aligned with the GREEN vertical lines...which corresponds with the end of July/ beginning of Aug timeframe
The question is what does the price action look like in the meantime?
A lot of that depends on what the broader market looks like and what levels hold on GME
I do not have a crystal ball
For what its worth I have additional buys set to trigger at 21.50 and 22 with a tight stop loss in case of any moves lower
Ok now lets talk momentum
GME is obviously vary volatile and extremely beholden to the options market
I have been working for months behind the scenes on fine tuning my custom indicators to provide a stable view of increases/ decreases in momentum..and have now reached that point
On the below indicator view , generally speaking, if all 3 Histograms are GREEN and ABOVE the ZERO LINE then price is showing HIGH BULLISH MOMENTUM...and vice versa for Selling Momentum
So with that said as you see GME is still showing a lot of weakness and until we see the bullishness conditions mentioned above I expect price action to be somewhat muted
GOOD TRADING TO YOU ALL
WC: 22.14 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100K: What Now?As I said in the end of day update yesterday the WEEK OF 06/09 was a doozy.
As part of my #GME20WeekCycle theory that week is significant as it is one of the few dates The Cat specifically "gave us" in his tweets...and serves as significant "line in the sand" from which we should look for significant price improvement (covered in the last 3 video updates) (at least thats my theory)
I expected positive price improvement of course this week...but we got the opposite because of the Convertible offering
Along with that we also got TONS OF VOLATILITY AND VOLUME..which I also expected
So what does the mean as far as the cycle theory goes?
This doesnt change anything for me because I never thought or said that we HAVE to get price improvement during that week..its just what I expected because I anticipated BUY VOLUME to come in
I also was CLEAR in the videos that its not just about the day or week of...its about the WHOLE CYCLE
I specifically talked in last video and in the LIVE on 06/09 about adjusting my expectations and to stop "looking for it all" to happen at one time or any given time..
So again I got 2 out the 3 things I was looking for this week: I got Volume and Volatility..just no Positive Price improvement...YET :)
Looking forward I expect the same thing to transpire as the last Convertible offering: Significant Positive Price Improvement
Last time we saw a 72% run from April low to May high
This time I expect 100% move before we see a significant retracement BUT we do need to watch the 38 LEVEL carefully as its a PRIME AREA for retracement due to the presence of overlapping 1.00 extensions....yeah definitely need to watch that area
And yes we are still in a MASSIVE diagonal pattern so look for the ABCs and continue to expect DEEP RETRACEMENTS of ANY significant moves up
GME DECODED
Expanded View of Cycles
Fib Focused Chart. Yellow Vertical lines are FUTURE POTENTIAL PRICE PIVOTS (I absolutely believe these to be powerful)
Above EACH horizontal white line is a Zone of Low Liquidity. There is nothing above 32 but there is also NOW NOTHING ABOVE 22. Once price gets going higher this becomes a VERY REAL PROBLEM FOR SHORTS i.e. why we are getting EPIC SHORTING between 32-34
Next Week. Short Term levels im watching
GOOD TRADING TO YOU ALL!!!
WC: 29.58 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100K: Week Of 06/09Ok this is my last video on Gamestop
You will see less frequent posts going forward and they will be at the MACRO level and focused almost exclusively on the daily charts
Its been a ride covering this over the past year or so
True to my posting intention (I'm only here to help people trade better) this video is educational in nature
Its not hopium fueled at all...this is me, one last time...TEACHING YOU HOW TO FISH
First half of the video is setting your charts up for the squeeze
Second half of the video is showing you some new stuff around the 20 Week Cycle that you havent seen before
But yeah..no hype...just TA and some rambling..because as my Tagline on my X profile says i'm:
"Just a guy who likes to draw Elliott Waves on stock charts and ramble on about markets."
GOOD TRADING TO YOU ALL...SEE YOU ON THE OTHER SIDE!
WC: 29.80 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100K: Time to FOCUSAs I reminded everyone in the youtube video earlier this week we are dealing with a large Diagonal structure in GME
There is nothing unusual AT ALL about the decline we saw this week
That is the nature of diagonals
Now we seem to be bottoming again around 30 which if that continues should see price rise to the 38 level then ultimately the 45 region
I also gave you 2 days to watch leading up to and during the week of 06/09:
06/05 and 06/11
Expecting to again see strong volume after those dates
I have no idea obviously but I would also expect The Cat to make an appearance around 06/09..probably on 06/08 if his Sunday posting pattern continues..but who really knows
At the end of the day im just watching FIBS, VOLUME and Indicator Confluence/Divergence
I'll leave the hopium to someone else...i'm strictly business from here out
GOOD TRADING TO YOU ALL
WC: 33.03 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100K: TICK TOCKIt would be easy to be really hyperbolic with my tone and words right based on the latest price action...but I'm NOT going to be
I am a TRADER and in order to extract profit consistently over time its important to manage the PSYCHOLOGICAL aspect of trading well i.e. your emotions
That's why I going to focus on only the TECHNICALS because THAT, for me, is what's going to ensure that I see as much PROFIT as possible from this trade:
WC: 27.54 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100K: #GME20WeekCycleLast weeks post, Gamestop Decoded, laid bare everything that I'm fully confident on related to the timing of settlement cycles and The Cats plays
To summarize, GME moves on a 20 week settlement cycle that in its current iteration kicked off the week of Nov 27, 2023
The Cat seems to be amplifying price improvement thru strategic options/ share buying during Low IV periods within the settlement periods
I'll talk about some other interesting aspects of this in my next video on, 05/17
Whats Next?
As explained in the Gamestop Decoded video, from the WEEK ( not day ) of 05/12 thru the WEEK of 06/02 I anticipate volume to pick up significantly due to The Cat starting to receive his ORIGINALS which are WHATS IN THE BOX
That will lead to the WEEK of 06/09 which equates to the EXPLOSION EMOJI in the EMOJI Timeline
P.S. I will be GOING LIVE on my YT channel on 06/09 if you care to hear me ramble about whatever price action we see lol
GOOD TRADING TO YOU ALL!!!