GOLD 11/8/2022GOLD
GOLD has provided a great chart to review the different stages of the market.
The past 10 years, GOLD has showed us all 4 stages of the market: Distribution, Accumulation, Downtrend, & Uptrend.
Daily Chart Analysis
Gold went crazy December ‘79. A parabolic move took price from about 400.00 to about 870.00
That was the last move of an uptrend that lasted about 9 years starting ‘71.
To start 1980, Gold crumbled and crashed. By June of ’82, the price of gold had tumbled down to 300 from 870.
The crash reached bottom in 1999 but it wasn’t until 2003 that it entered its next uptrend.
The GOLD crash lasted about 22 years.
1) The Uptrend
GOLD entered uptrend in’03 at 325.00.
The uptrend continued and in Jan.’08, price finally reached the highs of ‘79. That’s 29 years of holding the bag to finally get back to even!
Price continued to make all-time highs reaching up to 1990.00 by 2011.
2) The Distribution
After all-time highs of 1990, price started to move sideways between Resistance at 1790 and Support at 1543
By April ’13, price broke down from sideways market. The sideways market was then deemed a “Distribution stage”.
Price to enter downtrend.
3) The Downtrend.
In 2013, price fell below 200ema and entered downtrend.
Price lost support of 200ema and closed below it for the 1st time since ‘02. That’s a 1st in 12 years.
Price continued to make a series of lower highs and lower lows creating a downtrend channel.
In April 2016, price finally broke out of downtrend channel. This signals the possible end of the downtrend that’s lasted about 3 years.
4) The Accumulation Stage
After breaking out from downtrend channel, price started to move sideways finding resistance at 1370.00
Price also started to make higher lows into the resistance of 1370.00.
The market was no longer trending and had formed an Ascending Triangle.
On June ’19, price broke out of Ascending triangle and thru resistance at 1370.00. It also bounced back above the 200ema.
The breakout then confirmed the sideways market to be an Accumulation Stage. Gold will look to enter uptrend once again!
5) Resuming the Uptrend.
It took about 6 years but GOLD resumed its uptrend in 2019.
Price stayed above 200ema and the uptrend took price to all-time highs of 2070 in Aug.’20
After finding resistance at 2000.00, price has been moving sideways between 2000.00 and 1680.00.
6) ???? – Possible Accumulation stage
Price has now been moving sideways between 2000.00 and 1680.00.
It recently broke down from support at 1680 and 200ema
The breakdown was short lived as price bounced back above both. We now have a price rejection of lower prices and false breakdown.
We also have a bounce back above from Oversold Stochastic reading.
There is a lot to like here.
GOLD has been moving sideways since continuing its Uptrend and reaching All-time highs.
The all-time highs show the gold market is “hot” and the buyers the higher prices up.
We’re also seeing the buyers quickly buy up the breakdown of support. The buyers are buying up the lower prices and establishing higher support levels.
We’re in an uptrend and pulled back to a support level. The oversold stochastic reading signals a possible entry
Uptrend + pullback to support + Oversold Stochastic = Long entry.
Price will look to make a swing move to 2000 then I expect price to make All-time highs and continue uptrend north of 2800
Entry: 1710
Stop loss: 1600, -6.43%
Target #1: 1990, +16.37%, 2.55 RR ratio
Target #2: 2850, +66.67%, 10.36 RR ratio
