Gold-futures
Gold ThoughtsI believe we will hit the top of a downward channel by the end of the month.
1D chart RSI is very close to being overbought, one more price rally in the upward direction will result in the RSI achieving overbought status.
1D chart MACD's last movement failed to break the value of the previous macd wave. However price wise the second surge up was greater than the first surge. implying momentum is just about to come to a halt.
-Long; until the end of the month
-Short; as we enter 2019
Trading levels for 10/23/2018Slow day in the markets, there is some consolidation, hopefully, tomorrow volatility will pick up again, in the meantime, we have YH as a good place to start some shorts, especially if it aligns with the descending trendline, in the other hand S2 looks good to take some longs.
Please keep in mind that these are not trading signals, use your own analysis before taking any trades.
PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN
K.R.S.
Trading levels for 10/16/2018If you are a daytrader, you are loving these intraday swings, the NQ looks like a roller coaster today, there was a lot of buying but also a lot of selling, 7160 was a level that bears defended really well, and we will keep an eye in the future, in the other hand swingtraders are having a hard time trying to identify the short term of the market. For tomorrow i like R2 to start some shorts, and if i have to take a long it would definitely be from S1.
Please keep in mind that these are not trading signals, use your own analysis before taking any trades.
PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN
K.R.S.
Scalping August Gold To The Long From Just Above 1200.0After a miserable first half of 2018, many traders and investors are wondering when bullion will begin making a comeback. Values have consistently fallen in August gold futures, bringing the psychological level of 1200.0 into view.
In the short-run, things can get worse for gold. The U.S. FED is due out with their policy statements and interest rate decision during tomorrow’s session. While chances are slim that a rate hike will take place, the markets will be watching the commentary of FED Chair Jerome Powell very closely.
If we do see heightened bearish volatility facing August gold, a short-term buy from just above 1200.0 is a positive way to play the action. Here is the trade:
1)Entry: Buy from 1201.1
2)Stop Loss: 1199.9
3)Profit Target: 1202.3
4) Risk vs Reward Ratio: 1/1
Gold/Silver Ratio - Silver about to appreciate significantlyVery interessting stuff.
It look like silver is about to continue wave C down as it is completing wave 2 in a 5 wave down-move. Both commodities are declining of late, although silver would appear to be closer to its support (my published TA gold has the potential to decline to ~$5 to 600 over the next few years) while gold may have only retraced partially from ts 2011 highs.
The wedge formation in silver is likely an ending fifth wave diagonal that has broken downwards, after the impulse move down (either possibly already complete or maybe one more wave down to $14.60 to come (it depends on which source you look at)) silver looks set to then form the basis of an impulse wave up. In the scenario outlined in the chart (simple ABC correction with a 1:1 extension), purchasing silver would improve your gold purchasing power by 20%. If however, wave C down extends to 1.618 (like it did in 2011) this would increase your gold purchasing power by 45% in comparison to today.
Personally, if gold enters a 2-4 year bear market, I wouldn't really want to buy it until this period has ended or neared its end. I find this interesting more because I am bullish on silver and this is just another piece to the puzzle.
Happy trading. This is 100% technical Analysis (Elliot Wave with some fibonacci) and no fundamental analysis has been conducted. This analysis is published solely to further my own education.
Gold Futures Bullish vs Bearish outlooksAfter reading an analyst's conclusion that there was no bearish scenario for gold (after a trend-line bounce on the 3rd of July) I thought it may be worthwhile to have a look myself. My belief is that there is always a bearish and a bulish view, certainty has little place in markets. Here it is for whatever it is worth - solely an exercise in technical analysis.
I am not an industry professional etc etc.
Gold Futures, Daily Chart Analysis 5/17Implications and Outlook
1. Price action is continually confirming the value of the intermediate-term bearish sentiment of Key Support $1291 and Gold Dip to $1283.
2. The violation of the intermediate-term Gold Dip will undoubtedly bring serious of the bearish implications, having downside targets to next Gold Dip $1269, while Mean Resistance is just above of $1303
3. Current bearish/bullish bias is 60/40
4. For many of you who might be disappointed with the activity in the Gold market, keep in mind that bull markets are designed to get rid of weak players through this form of trading action. Continue to be strong and keep on amassing real Gold and Silver along with the high-quality companies which mine these precious metals.
Spot Gold Prepares for Lower PricesWith recent dollar strength and treasury weakness, commodities are taking the hit. Here we have a classic bear flag in Gold A longer-term chart shows Gold in a large rectangular consolidation inside an ascending triangle (triangle on the weekly chart). A break of the bear flag should take price to the boundary of the larger rectangular consolidation, where price may proceed (probably after a partial rise) to fall to the boundary of the triangle, where I would expect it to reverse upwards, however, continuation of the downwards action is always possible.
Good trading and good luck!
Is the crash the beginning of the safety haven?It is considered a relative drop in gold caused by the rise in the dollar.
The increase in the Dow Jones index and Spx500 has resulted in relatively low demand for safe haven.
Let's look at the chart!
First, the market made a strong break through the black clouds. Right now, the gold market is in its bottom line, and the market is expected to be resisted by the small cloud, which is a sub-trends after a slight rebound.
It is a long time to sell right now. Wait for the market to rebound.
When forming a new down-wave, it would be better to safely sell at high points to maximize profits.
Don't forget that too hasty chase and trade results in a loss!
If you helped me with this information,
More information is available at www.allaboutforex.net
Gold is facing 1.300 againAfter a clear rally, Gold finally reached the support again. Almost every gold trader has the level of 1,300 on the screen and in this area, there is an enormous number of orders, on the one hand stops for all traders that are already long positioned, but also pending orders for long trades. In addition, the level of 1,300 hits the 38 Fibonacci level. Every healthy and strong trend corrects very often to this level.
If the level of 1,300 breaks, it could go down with strong momentum. More likely in the current environment is a bounce at this price level and a rising gold price afterward.
GC (Gold) short downtrend continued by strong uptrend.Classic gold when breaking down in a bearish channel. We'll see a nice slide downwards in to the heavy "demand" zone continued with an absorption and then expect a bullish channel formation with a nice move upwards. Rinse and repeat with gold. Of course there is always the chance these support levels dont hold (paired with bearish news) and we get a nasty breakdown. Watch key levels marked on the chart for buy areas.
Gold is Range BoundHi all, I've just gotten back from my extended vacation. The precious metal is range bound and looks like it wants to move down before completing a move up to tag the upper Bollinger Band. The weakness is appearing in the haDelta indicator at the bottom of the chart. A magenta dot just printed which means that the smoothed delta SMA is crossing over the non-smoothed delta. And since this is the second magenta dot in the latest upswing, it does suggest the price will either consolidate or move down.
The Heikin Ashi chart below is also showing a slowing of the uptrend. Let's see if we get some clarity over the next few days.
In case you're wondering about the new yellow Bollinger Band, I was watching a video that John Bollinger had posted on YouTube and it that video he mentioned that one should try using Bollinger Bands of different periods. So I've added a new Bollinger Band (the yellow one) and set the period to 50. This creates some interesting technical levels with the 21 and 50 BBs crossing and interacting with each other.
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Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Closes Lower, Dollar Strengthens on FOMC AnnoucementGold closed down almost 20 points today as the FOMC announced it would not raise the Fed interest rate in May but left a rate hike on the table for June. But regardless of that news, let's look at the technical aspects of the precious metal's chart.
First, the tag of the lower Bollinger Band was what I've been discussing during this bear selloff began in Mid April. This is what I call the 'Coast to Coast' trade, moving from one end of the Bollinger Band to the other.
Second, the haDelta indicator printed a magenta dot on Tuesday when the Delta crossed down under the smoother Delta average. This was a bearish signal and combined with the proximity of the lower Bollinger Band, gave statistical weight to holding onto a short position.
Third, the Heikin-Ashi candles are in a long red downward trajectory. Although last week ended with 2 weak HA candles, the candles have become stronger the last 2 days which indicates a possible resumption of the sell-off.
Now that the lower Bollinger Band has been hit, what is next? We need to watch price action over the next couple of days. If Gold is in an oversold state, then expect a correction to take place. This may result in some sideways action or in a sharp buying spurt. Or, there may be continued sell-off over the next couple of days. Watch the Heikin Ashi candles. If the trend is about to reverse, you will see Dojis and color changes. Also watch for a cross back over the 0 line of both the haDelta Indicator and Elliot Wave Oscillators.
I will be out on vacation for the next couple of weeks so I wish all of you good luck trading and protect your profits!
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Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Closed Slightly Lower after Tagging SupportGold closed slightly lower on Tuesday, down .4 points. In early morning trading, Gold had moved down and touched the lower cyan Bollinger Band, which is 1.5 Std Deviations from the 21 day mid point moving average. The rest of the day was subdued, as we await the next move. The haDelta indicator did print a new magenta dot which indicates that more downside movement is likely. This reverses the yellow, bullish, dot that was printed on Monday. In addition, the Heikin-Ashi candles remain red and the Elliot Wave Oscillator is also solid red. At this point, it is statistically probably that gold will continue moving down at least until it hits the lower red Bollinger Band.
Tuesday's Heikin-Ashi candle was a good, strong red candle which was a very nice recovery from Monday's mixed candle that had wicks at both ends.
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Gold Remains Under PressureDespite rumors of a Gold rally that permeated the ideashpere over the weekend, the precious metal continued to sell off today, closing near the bottom of the day and down 14 points. Last Friday's candle, while an up candle, still closed the day, and the week, under both the 7 and 21 day moving average. It was also a red Heikin-Ashi candle. In fact, all the indicators are also red. Finally, I want to point out the if price is trading under both 7 and 21 day moving averages, it is statistically probably that price will hit the lower Bollinger Bands. While nothing is 100% in trading, the odds are definitely in favor of touching the lower Bollinger Band. The haDelta indicator has printed a new magenta dot which signals that the smoothed moving average has turned down below the raw price delta.
I do want to call out that Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle did have an upper wick, which is not usually present in a strong trending situation. Let's treat this as a warning only and watch what happens when price does hit the lower Bollinger Band.
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Gold Rallies at End of Day. Will it Continue?Gold fell to a new 2 week low during Wednesday's trading. That is, until the end of the day when the administration's tax plan was released and Gold rallied higher to close the trading session. However, Gold met resistance at the 21 day moving average and if you look at the Heikin-Ashi chart below, today's trading ended in a strong red Heikin-Ashi candle. That begs the question of whether or not the spike was an anomaly or not. The haDelta indicator is still red. I am still bearish and holding onto my short positions.
As I mentioned last night, there is a strong trading range from 1245 - 1265. I've now outlined that area with a green rectangle. I've also added 2 volume profiles to the chart (you can see them in their entirety on the very bottom chart). The long term Volume Profile dates from the beginning of 2016 to today. What's interesting is that the Point of Control is smack in the middle of that trading range. And that also coincides with the 23% fib retracement of the current year's rally.
The Point of Control on the short term Volume Profile is nearly at the same level as the 38% retracement. If price does drop in the coming days, these would be the areas of interest.
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Gold Short TargetsI want to follow up on my earlier post on potential downside targets for Gold. There are 2 immediate targets.
There is a 23% fib retracement at 1256.5. This fib is based on the yearly high and low. You can see a strong line of support there.
A trendline that extended from the last 2 pivot lows has a strong confluence with the same fib's 38% retracement level. It's also in the general price are of the lower Bollinger Band.
To recap, 2 strong support levels at 1256 and 1231.
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