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Gold-futures

Fed Raises Rates and Gold Rises in TurnThe Fed today announced an increase in the Fed rate. This was not a surprise. What was surprising is the Gold rally that followed. In fact, Gold blasted through all resistance levels, including the 6 and 8 day moving averages, the 50 day moving average and the 21 weekly moving average. The Heikin-Ashi chart also shows a dramatic change of direction (see below) Now the question is where is Gold going. First, when price breaks the 6 day moving average, statistically speaking, there is a high probability will price will hit the 21 day moving average. Right now, that's at ~1230. My next target would be the top Bollinger Band. That's currently at 1265. This is what I call a coast to coast trade. After that, well, we'll evaluate that in the days to come. The last chart tonight is the Volume Profile chart. Notice that the short and intermediate term POC is at 1230. This will act like a magnet to price and makes another good target. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold moves sideways in Prelude to Fed MeetingAs the United States and the rest of the world wait to hear if the Fed will raise interest rates tomorrow at 2:00 pm EST, Gold continued moving sideways right at the 1200 price level. Price did remain under the 6 day moving average and under all other significant moving averages as I have been pointing out this last week. In addition, we have now finished our 10th red Heikin-Ashi candle in a row. So while the bear run is still intact, anything can happen tomorrow. On the volume profile, we are still waiting to see if price will go back and fill in the area at the low volume node around 1190. Volatility will probably return tomorrow and move the needle on Gold to set up the next run. Stay tuned and good luck trading. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Moves Sideways in Light TradingAs the Fed meeting is scheduled for this coming Wednesday, trading was very light today for the precious metal. Price hovered just above the 1200 mark after hitting a high of 1210.9. That price level coincided with the 6 day moving average as well as the 21 weekly moving average. You can see those levels on the chart as the purple cross and gold dot respectively. Until price closes above the 6 day moving average, I will maintain my short positions. Note that Monday was the 9th red Heikin-Ashi candle. As I had written about last Thursday, there's a low volume node on the volume profile at 1190 and that's where Gold had traded to on Friday. That's still a level of interest. Watch how much support it provides if and when price gets back down to that level. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Keeps Falling, Breaks Below 1200Gold slowly consolidated today after selling off 5 points at the start of the overnight session. Then at the end of the day, price fell through the magical 1200 level (magical only because it's a nice round number :-) ). We now await the non-farm payroll numbers tomorrow at 8:30 am EST. If the ADP numbers yesterday are an indication, this number may beat the 200k forecasted. There are now 6 consecutive Heikin-Ashi candles (see my indicator at bottom of chart) and price has solidly moved past all moving averages and the Ichimoku Cloud. There are 2 key support levels coming up. The first is at 1190 which is a low volume node on the Volue Profile chart (see below). The second is @ 1177.5, which is the 23% fib retracement from the election night high. This also corresponds to another low volume node at 1170 on the volume profile. Disclaimer: This post is for information purposes only. All trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Support Levels Fail to Contain Gold's DeclineGold closed the day at 1208.1, down 7.5 points. As I called out in last night's post, there were 4 levels of support today that could have stopped Gold's decline. However, as a continued sign that the bear move is well underway, none of those levels held. To remind you, those levels were: Gold Support Levels Lower Bollinger Band - 1214.70 21 Week Moving Average - 1212.80 50 Day Moving Average - 1210.70 38% Fib from Election Day High - 1209.30 With the Fed meeting a week away, it looks like "Sell the rumor, Buy the news" is in full swing. Notice that on last Wednesday and Friday there was strong buying off the lows to end both of days at the top of the daily range and that each day was followed by strong selling days that closed at the low of the day. Now, for the last 2 days, there hasn't been any pretense from buyers that they are trying to buy up the market. On the Volume Profile chart, it definitely looks like price is heading to the low volume node at 1190. As I mentioned in my post this morning, my first profit target at 1209 was hit and I closed some of my current position. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Continues Moving Lower and Peaks through Bottom of CloudGold closed down 9.8 points today and poked through the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. There is a lot of support at this level though so we need to see if price will hold here or will the bear move continue. Of note is that Wednesday opens with the 6th consecutive day of red Heikin-Ashi candles. Support Levels Lower Bollinger Band - 1214.70 50 Day Moving Average - 1210.70 21 Week Moving Average - 1212.80 38% Fib from Election Day High - 1209.30 While its too early to predict where the bottom of this move might be, let's keep our eyes on the .272 fib extension off the Election Night high to the December low. The volume profile is showing a low volume node at 1190. That would be a good short term target if price continues to move lower. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
The End of the Gold RallyGold sold off sharply today, dropping 15.5 points and closing under all 3 moving averages on the chart, the 6 day, the 8 day and the 21 day moving averages. Gold now seems determined to head south. The first target should now be the lower red bollinger band. Chart update: now that the bull run is over, I've removed the intermediate and short term waves from the chart. In it's place, I've added a fib retracement that spans the date range from election night, 11/8/2016 through the present. It's very clear that Gold was not able to break through the .618 retracement level and is now trading at the .50 level. Gold is now knocking on the door of the Ichimoku cloud. With 2 strong red Heikin-Ashi candles, odds are that price will now move in to the cloud. The conservative trader will want to wait for price to emerge on the downside of the cloud before going short. More aggressive traders will want to go short now, placing stops at the 6 day moving average. The Volume Profile chart shows that the long term and short term POCs have move down and it is at this level the price closed today. This is more confirmation that the bull move is over.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Falls and then Rallies Off the 21 Day Moving AverageGold sold off in the overnight session to tag the 21 day moving average. The precious metal then reversed as the New York markets opened up and rallied to close between the 6 and 8 day moving averages. On the whole, gold rose a modest 1.5 points today. Today's doji shows that once again gold seems to be in a holding pattern and moving sideways. Although since this wave started at the end of January, all selloffs have been met with enthusiastic, if not aggressive, buying. The Heikin-Ashi chart is more bullish and shows that price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and that the Chikou Span (lagging line) is also trading above price and the cloud. While overall bullish, it's important to observe that today's Heikin-Ashi candle was a red candle. This followed a Heikin-Ashi doji candle the day before. All adds up to some level of uncertainty. The volume profile chart is also bullish. Notice that the short and long term POCs are right at the same price as the 21 day moving average. That acted as a magnet for price today but then repelled price upward. This is very bullish suggesting that there is a pool of buyers camped out at the POC.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Retreats Prior to President's Speech before CongressThe bull run of Gold paused today as gold sold off, hit the 6 day moving average and then closed at the middle of the range. Today's doji is the second in a row. Unfortunately for the bulls, as the Asian session opens up, the precious metal is now trading below those moving averages. However, you can expect extra volatility tonight as the US president addresses a joint session of Congress. The Heikin-Ashi chart shows price right at the 8 day moving average. The doji today, while green, is signaling indecision. This makes sense as the world awaits Trump's speech. The somewhat elongated node in the long term Volume Profile on the left is acting as temporary resistance at 1256.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Pauses and Hits Resistance Gold traded higher in the first part of the day on Monday and then sold off in the afternoon to close at 1258.8. The day ended with a doji candle that had penetrated the upper BollingerBand but then sold off and closed between the 2 upper BBs. Remember the red BB is set to 2 Standard Deviations and the cyan BB is set to 1.5 Standard Deviations. Gold is also trading above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. All this supports a continued bullish outlook. This is also confirmed by the 3rd strong green Heikin-Ashi candle that you can see on the chart below. Until at least one of these changes, I will be maintaining my long positions. Finally, if you look at the long term volume profile on the chart below, I've put a rectangle around the area on the left where it looks like price is trying to fill in. There's a low volume node at 1280 that could act as a magnet and then resistance for price. Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposed only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
A Gold Trade Gone Well*WE'VE ACCIDENTALLY BEEN PUBLISHING PRIVATE IDEAS* The fundamentals for Gold is looking bullish, and our trade we made back in the beginning of February has performed well using our first draft of the FriendlyTrend Signal. Our initial 5x contract entry at 1221 is not at an above-breakeven stop loss, and the spike up w/ a close allowed for a 4x contract entry with a fill at 1249. We'll trim off some profits at the 1280 mark if prices rice to that height. Otherwise, the stop loss is currently trailed to the 1222 mark and onward. Check out our site on our Tradingview profile for more of our trades.
COMEX:GCG2017Long
by EdgeAnalytics
Gold Continues to Move HigherOn Friday, Gold continued the rally started on Thursday and closed @ 1258, up 7.4 points on the day. This confirms that move up to the target zone of 1277, which would be the 1:1 target of the Major and Minor A waves (see chart). I have also marked a few higher targets if strong buying comes into the market. The 1.272 fib extension is very common and that has nice confluence with the round number of 1300. There are now 2 very strong Heikin-Ashi candles confirming the resumption of the bull move up. The weekly Hiekin-Ashi chart shows 8 weeks of strong upward movement. However, it's clear that price is moving into the middle of the Ichimoku cloud. Let's see if price can break through this week, If it's rejected here, then we'll have to re-think our wave counts and re-assess our long positions. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Breaks Out of Range to Close a New Yearly HighGold rose 12.4 points to to close at a new yearly high of 1250.7. This puts the C wave firmly back in play with an expected target of 1277.7. Price on the Volume Profile charts has now extended past both the short term and intermediate term value areas which suggests that price will now move higher, attempting to fill in the profile at the higher end. The 3 days starting from election day have very large candles which means that not alot of volume was accumulated at that time. These illiquid trading days tend to get re-visited and filled out. Finally, on the Heikin-Ashi chart, we now have 2 strong, consecutive green candles. The way that price is now moving away from the 6/8 day moving averages is a classical beginning of a new wave. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Closes Up 30 Cents and Stays Above Moving AveragesGold closed up 30 cents on the day to maintain it's position above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. It is also still above the extended closing price line (cyan). All in all, while Gold has been trading sideways for 2 weeks, it is still leaning to the bullish side. The Heikin-Ashi chart for the day shows a red doji for Tuesday's trading day. This could be a warning that signals the next move will be down. The volume profile chart clearly shows that Gold is trading under the upper value area on both short term and intermediate timeframes. Finally, I want to call out the sideways price action that has occurred after price penetrated the upper Bollinger Band. This is usually an indication that the next move will be towards the opposite Bollinger Band. This is what I call a Coast to Coast trade. While the first couple of charts show Gold as leaning to the Bullish side, the red doji and the Volume Profile and the BollingerBands seem to suggest that Gold as leaning to the Bearish side. Overall, I'm maintaining a neutral outlook. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as advice on trading. All risk is your own.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Moves Up but Can't Break Resistance on Light Trading DayGold rose 2.1 points on Monday in very light trading as the US markets were closed in honor of President's Day. Gold penetrated the 6 and 8 day moving averages at the low of the day but closed above them. The precious metal is trading sideways for now. This sideways trading is even more pronounced on the Heikin-Ashi daily chart with 6 of the last 8 candles being Dojis. I've also added Ichimoku clouds to the chart. All the indicators are bullish, for now but I've seen Gold stay in these tight ranges for weeks at a time. The final chart tonight is the Volume Profile view. You can see that price has tried to poke out of the upper value area on the short term profile (on the right) but has so far failed in those attempts. It's also interesting that the upper value area on the intermediate term volume profile is just on top of this so there seems to be a lot of pressure containing Gold's upward movement. Disclaimer: This commentary is for educational purposes only and is not to be taken as trading advice.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Trades Higher but Runs into ResistanceGold traded higher today, closing at 1240.1, up 5.8 points on the day. While the move was great for the bulls, the precious metal ran into strong resistant @1243.7, the highs from last week. If Gold continues to move up tomorrow, that will mark the 3rd consecutive week up and the 7th out of the last 8 weeks. Here's the weekly chart: On the main chart above, I've labelled the short term and intermediate waves for this bull run that started on the 23rd of December last year. The measured move of that (A) wave would put price at 1274.3. That's the intermediate wave. The measured move of the short term wave, the minor (a) that started on January 27, would put price at 1283. I've labeled those waves on the chart and put a rectangle at the projected area. The Heikin-Ashi chart shows a strong green candle for today, with a nice wick at the top and no wick on the bottom. That's about as strong a HA candle as you can get. The volume profile chart shows that today we moved out of the short term value area but are meeting resistance at the top of the intermediate term value area. If price can push higher, there's a low volume area at the 1248 area that could provide some resistance. Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Bounces Sharply Off the 21 Day MAGold sold off in the overnight session and tagged the 21 day MA at 1217.5 and then sharply rebounded to close just above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. I have been calling for a tag of that 21 day MA since Monday when price broke through the ice and closed below those moving averages. But now, price is trading above them and the future direction seems like it may be for Gold to rise and resume the C wave which would put the next target at 1276. Let's take a look at the Heikin-Ashi chart. There have been 4 doji candles in the last 5 days. That's a good indication of sideways price motion so we may need another day or 2 before the next direction is established. The volume profile chart shows a very elongated high volume node at 1226. I am watching to see if price will rotate back down and tag it and will it then continue to tag the POC? Or, is there enough strength to break past the short and intermediate term value areas? Again, we are in a waiting pattern. Disclaimer: comments here are for education purposes only and should not be taken as trade advice. All trading decisions are your own.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Continues Moving SidewaysGold closed up 3.1 points on Tuesday but that was basically a move sideways. There was some volatility in the morning when Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen began her testominy. But while the DXY dollar index had a strong move up, Gold stayed basically flat. However, it is clear on the chart that Gold is still trading under the 6 and 8 day moving average so my bias is still to the downside, expecting Gold to hit the 21 day moving average. At some point. Tonight I've combined the Heikin-Ashi chart with the Volume Profile chart. Today's candle was a Doji which signals either a reversal or continuation of the trend. If Gold does continue this downward trend, then I am still expecting price to hit the 21 day moving average or the gold line at the midpoint of the Bollinger Band. The final chart tonight is a Volume Profile chart with each profile representing a day's trading. The white line is the closing price for each 30 minutes. Notice how the POC acts like a magnet? Well, the 21 Day moving average (gold line) is also a magnet. Let's see if it can attract price tomorrow or at least by the end of the week. Disclaimer: this chart is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Breaks Through and Closes Below the 8 Day Moving AverageGold dropped 8.1 points on the day to close below the 8 day moving average. As the dollar rose, gold sold off and finally cracked the 8 day ma. It also closed below the forward adjusted closing price line represented as the cyan line. There is now a high probability that gold will touch the 20 day moving average which is the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands. The Heikin Ashi chart shows that we are now in red territory, with 2 red candles in a row. If you look back a few days at the last green Heikin Ashi candle, you can see that it is a doji. Doji Heikin Ashi candles signify either a change or continuation of direction. Since that green doji has been followed by 2 red candles, it appears to have signaled a change of direction. The volume profiles are still showing confluence of the POCs from the intermediate and short terms. Whether or not we will see a resumption of the C wave and Gold moving higher in the near future is uncertain. For now though, it looks like there is more room to go on the downside.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands