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Gold-futures

Gold Gains Almost 8 Points Resuming It's Bullish TrendGold continued to move higher today, closing at 1243.1, a gain of 7.9 points for the precious metal. The US Dollar Index $DXY fell today which helped fuel Gold's rise. As I pointed out yesterday, the dollar had closed under the midpoint on the BollingerBand after having tried to break through that line of resistance and I thought that it would move lower today. It did and Gold was the beneficiary, continuing it bullish trend. What we want to see now is Gold to keep hugging the outer BollingerBand, rising steadily between the BollingerBands and the rising 6 day moving average. You may want to use the 8 day moving average as a good place to put your stops. You can have confidence in the bull trend as long as price stays close to the outer Bollinger Bands and above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. You can also use the Heikin-Ashi as a great way to monitor the trend. Look at the chart below. Following the colors is a great way to stay confident in your position. Green is Up and Red is Down. It doesn't get any easier than that. :-) My final comment here is that you can see that price is trading in the middle of a low volume area. Price may pause here and try to fill in that area before making it's next move.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Pauses and Closes Down Slightly on the DayAfter the big move up yesterday, Gold took a pause and closed down slightly to end the day at 1235.5. The low of the day touched the 1.5 Std Dev Bollinger Band at which point buyers stepped in and bought in anticipation of the next move. On a day where the dollar strengthened, Gold maintaining it's position can be seen as bullish. On the chart below, I've added 2 volume profiles. The one on the far left is for the time range from Dec, 2015 through today. Notice how the Point of Control (cyan line) is almost exactly at 1273, which is the measured move from the first wave in this bull run. The current price at 1235 is at a rather elongated peak in the profile. If price can get past that peak, the hitting the POC should be a no brainer.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Breaks Through Resistance on Strong Up DayGold broke out of the 1220 resistance level today and pushed up to a daily high of 1237.5. This was the breakout that I had been waiting for. Gold clearly wants to go higher. The first target is the .618 extension of the move from January @ 1241.7. A more likely target is 1278.6 which would be the measured move of the (A) wave. I have put the probably extensions on the daily chart. It's interesting to note that there is a lot of options speculation at the 1267 level which is the .88 fib extension. A number of harmonic patterns use the .88 fib level so I am expecting to see some resistance there although only price action will tell how strong the resistance will actually be. If the theory that last year was the start of a new bull market for the precious metal, then this is indeed an exciting time to be a gold bull! I've highlighted the cyan BB at 1228.9 as a pullback area if you are looking to add to an existing position. The Heikin-Ashi chart shows a strong bull trend. Personally I will not be taking any profits until the first red candle. :-) This final chart is the weekly view with the fib extension from the low on Nov. 30, 2015 @ 1045. This shows the measured move @ 1457.9.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Ends the Week touching the 1221 Resistance LevelGold rose higher today after shaking off a selling spree after the NFP numbers were released. Prices fell right to the 6 day moving average before buyers stepped in and gold prices rallied. Prices continued to move higher right up to the closing bell and the action stopped @ 1221.6. Let's see what happens next week but if price can finally break through the 1221 and close above it (yes, I know, I've said that before :) ), the first target would be 1241, the .618 fib extension of the (A) wave. However, if this is truely going to be an ABC pattern, then price will hit 1278.6, the full 1.0 measured move. Here's the simplified Heikin-Ashi chart. Although we are in a solid green uptrend, today's candle was an inside candle which suggests that it might take price a couple more days to blast through the resistance. Here's the weekly chart. Notice that price on the weekly is now right at the midline of the BB. That's equal to a 20 day ma. If price moves above here, the odds are good that it will move to at least the blue BB at 1284. The final chart I want to look at is a monthly Heikin-Ashi chart. January ended as a red inside bar and so far, the February action has been all green. If price continues to rise, February could be a great month for the bulls. Have a great weekend!
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Breaches 1220 but Ends the Day BelowGold pushed up past the 1220 resistance level for the 3rd time since the start of the year, only to be met with strong resistance and falling back under 1220 to be within the range from 1182 - 1220. While I am still long, the upper wick on today's candle is not the most encouraging for the bulls. On the bullish side, price is still above the 6, 8 and 21 day moving averages and sandwiched between the 1.0 and 1.5 Bollinger Bands (blue and cyan respectively). The Heikin-Ashi chart below is a little more encouraging with the 3 previous days showing solid green candles without bottom wicks. Tomorrow is NFP at 8:30 am EST. Let's see if that can push price past 1220 once and for all and get this bull moving!
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Pushes Up Against a Potential Triple TopGold started the day with a big selloff but then recovered after the FOMC and Janet Yellen announced that they would not be raising interest rates at this time. Gold is now attempting to break out of a potential triple top at $1220. If Gold can break through, then the first target would be 1241.7, the .618 fib extention from the bull run that started at the end of last year. With jobless claims tomorrow at 8:30 am EST and Non Farm Payroll on Friday at 8:30 am EST, there can be some potential big moves coming up for the precious metal. The main chart today is complete with all the indicators that I use. The first chart below is the same but with Japanese Candlesticks, called Heiken Ashi. They are really good for showing trends. As you can see, we are now into day 3 of this uptrend. On this next chart, I've removed most of the chart objects to show only the basic Bollinger Band and Moving Averages. It's clear to see that price has separated from the 6 and 8 day moving averages and has ridden the mid line of the Bollinger Band higher. Feel free to ask any questions or leave comments. I am always interested in having thoughtful discussions on price action to improve all our trading.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Breaks Out to Upside - BarelyGold rose ~15 points today and broke through the 6 and 8 day moving average. It also broke through the trend line starting back on election night, Nov 8. Price also failed to break below the mid line of the Bollinger Band. The next resistance level is at 1220 so let's see if Gold can move up and past it. Look at the Heikin Ashi chart below. 2 days ago there was a red doji. Doji's on Heikin Ashi charts are good signals for either continuations or reversals. We now have 2 strong green candles after the doji. The final chart tonight is below. It looks like we are entering the C leg. Also 4 days ago price firmly rejected the range below.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold StallsGold stalled today and ended the day just above the BB Midpoint. Today's hammer is a bullish candlestick so while price is still under the 6 and 8 day MAs and the stoch RSI is moving down, I want to see confirmation on Monday as to the direction of Gold's next move. Also note that the hammer shows rejection of the range below as shown on this chart: This is also not very bearish. Due to these mixed signals, and the fact that today was contract rollover for Gold Futures, I closed my positions, banking a nice 18 point per contract profit.
COMEX:GCG2017
by GoldBands
XAUUSD idea for the next yearAB-CD pattern on the weekly, details on chart. Although the 1172 level was breached the past week, the weekly candle managed to close above it, which is a good sign for bulls. This week's candle was also a doji, citing indecision and lower selling volume. Historically, there has been support/resistance around this level as well, shown in the blue boxes and the Stoch RSI is also turning up. Last, weekly RSI has bounced off 30 several times, which is where we are at now. However, the AB-CD pattern states that B-C retracement can go to .786, aka $1116. I don't think this is likely though. Maybe that'll happen at Fed hike. Further, if a weekly candle closes below $1116, then this idea is not valid and we should be going back to square one (A) at $1045, where we were almost exactly a year ago in dec of 2015. Going forward, we should watch $1212, which is the 0.5 level of AB. If we break it, should head to 1251 and up. Fib extension at point D far away. I am still holding a big position in a PM that I like. Despite the drop from 1300s to where we are now, GDX has held steadily. For example, when gold dropped $15 from 1180 to 1165 ish, my miner only dropped 2-3%, while a rise in gold of $5-10 led to a pop of over 5%! Good luck and trade well :) *** not investment advice, just a perspective if gold bottomed here ***
FX:XAUUSD
by CaffeinatedCryptoo
1
Gold Continues its Bullish AscentGood Evening Traders! Today was another positive move up for Gold as the precious metal closed the day at 1269.9, up 6 points from the opening. Great news for our long Gold trade, for sure! Equally encouraging is that the Stoch RSI has finally broken above the 20 line, confirming the upward trend. The midline on the BB is now at 1284.5 and it would appear that Gold will hit that level before the end of the week. Of course, I am looking beyond the midline for this next bullish wave. With the 1300 level right at the 23% fib level, that is and remains my first target to take profits. Let's take a quick look at the weekly chart to get a longer term perspective on this move up. As you can see below, the bullish cycle is not yet confirmed by the Stoch RSI because the green signal line has yet to cross over the magenta price line. Until it does, we do not have confirmation that a longer term bullish trend is in play. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on it! The GoldBands strategy works on many other markets besides Gold. Here is the daily chart for Natural Gas, NYMEX:NG1! . As you can see, Natural Gas is clearly cycling down. I entered a short trade 2 days ago. My target is for price to descend to the lower Bollinger Bands for what I call a coast to coast trade. You can see that the last 2 down cycles were stopped at the midline before moving back up so I am looking for a deeper correction this time. Until next time, Safe Trading and Protect your Profits!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by GoldBands
Gold At Potential BreakOut LevelGood Evening Traders, It's always nice to have a solid move after an inside bar and that's exactly what we got today with Gold. Gold closed the day up 6.3 points to close out at 1262.9. After trading sideways for 7 days, including that inside day yesterday, the precious metal was able to finally push up past the inner Bolling Band. In addition, the Stoch RSI is at the cusp of breaking above the 20 line, which would be a significant harbinger of the start of a new cycle to the upside. There is now significant room to above for Gold to make it's way to the BB midline @ 1290.90. And while that level may show some resistance, I think it would be more likely that price would continue on to the 23% fib retracement level @ 1300. Let's see what tomorrow brings and if we do have another up day, I will be moving my protective stop up as well. Safe Trading and Protect your Profits!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by GoldBands
An Inside Day for GoldGood Evening Traders! Another lackluster day for Gold, that's for sure! Gold traded up to a high of 1258.2 but that was not enough to break last Friday's high, showing that Gold remains extremely range bound. On the positive side, the Stoch RSI continued to make its way toward the 20 line, giving the bulls hope that a breakout is due in the next couple of days. After hours trading on Monday night has been bullish with Gold finally breaking Friday's high but struggling to stay above the 1260 mark. With GBP Consumer Price Index reports at 1:30 am PST, let's see if that can move the needle here. US Consumer Price Index is due out at 5:30 am PST. I've drawn 3 major areas of support and resistance on the chart. It's interesting how they coincide with the 23, 28 and 50 percent retracements on the yearly move up. Let's watch the areas for sure. I am long at 1258 with a stop at 1240. With a first profit target at 1305, that's a slightly better than 2:1 risk reward on the trade. Safe Trading and Protect your Profits!
COMEX:GCZ2016Long
by GoldBands
Gold Holding at the 38% FibHello Traders! Gold prices have maintained a steady state at the 38% fib retracement level. That fib is drawn from the low of 12/15/2015 @ 1056 to the high of the year at 1383. Steaming from the big selloff two weeks ago, the Stoch RSI has had time to stabilize and may be ready to move above the 20 line. Could this be the beginning of the next cycle up? We definitely need to be patient and wait for confirmation, especially as the Stoch RSI is still moving down on the weekly chart (see pic below). It's interesting to note that last week was extremely bullish for the US Dollar. Even though the dollar was moving strongly to the upside, Gold was able to hold it's position and did not sell off in response. This could mean that Gold has a lot of underlying strength. Gold will usually decline in the face of a strong dollar. I've added a chart below that shows the relationship between Gold and the US Dollar. Let's watch for confirmation to the upside. Hopefully we'll have a clearer picture in the next few days. Safe Trading and Protect your Profits! Weekly Gold Chart: Gold vs. US Dollar:
COMEX:GCZ2016
by GoldBands
NFP - How Will Gold React to Non Farm Payroll?Good Evening Traders! Well, here we are again, Gold trading just above the 1250 mark. Today was a solid day down, with Gold trading 16.7 points off the opening to close at 1253. We have come right to the top of this support area that was last seen on June 24, the day the British approved Brexit, and the day when Gold rallied 108 points in 1 day!. It's amazing isn't it how these cycles play out; 3 and a half months later and we are on the verge of another volatile day, but this time its Non Farm Payroll Friday. As you can see in the chart, we have been riding the extreme edge of the Bollinger Bands. And as we know, this is not a sustainable situation as price will almost always pull back from such extremes. You can also see on the Stoch RSI that the green signal line has final crossed over the magenta line. While this doesn't necessarily mean that the down cycle is over and that price will reverse, it does give us a clue that it might happen soon. And given Non Farm Payroll day, the safest play might be to go to cash and protect your profits. To recap, the 3 main factors to thinking that the pullback might be over are: Price has spent 3 days on the outside edge of the outer Bollinger Band Price is right at the upper edge of a major support zone Stoch RSI signal line has started to cross above the magenta line Following my own advise, I am closing all of my current short position except for 1 contract which will be a runner. With the stop at set at break even, it's a very safe play. Safe Trading and Protect those Profits!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
Today's Doji after Yesterday's Extreme Move Down.Good Evening Traders! Well, after yesterday's explosive move down, it's not surprising that Gold took a pause today. With a total range of 15.3 points, the net down move today was 1.9 points. I did take a new short position early in the morning and I'll get to that later in this post. I'm expecting volatility to come back into the market tomorrow and Friday as there are a couple of big news events. Tomorrow at 4:30 am PST is the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. With Brexit on everyone's mind, this will be an interesting event to say the least. This is followed an hour later by the US Initial Jobless Claims report at 5:30 am PST. And then on Friday is our friend, Nonfarm Payrolls, at 5:30 am PST. These events are almost guaranteed to get the markets moving again, perhaps finishing off the downward cycle in Gold. Now on to my trade. As I mentioned yesterday, I was waiting for a good pullback in Gold so I could re-enter and catch another wave to the downside. Using the hourly chart, at 5 am, price came up, penetrated the upper BB and then the next hourly candle failed to take out the high. Also, the Stoch RSI was in overbought territory. While not a picture perfect pullback, with a tight stop, the risk was containable. For my profit target, I am using a weekly chart and the lower BB which is at 1243.50. Hopefully, we'll end the week with some good movement to the downside. Safe Trading and Protect Your Profits. Hourly Chart Weekly Chart
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
Gold Blasts Through All Major Support LinesGood Evening Traders! I've been calling for the bottom of the current cycle and last night I pointed out that there was major support below my current Gold short @ 1305. There was the upward trend line dating back from January, the channel bottom from July 1, and the bottom BB Band (2.0 Std Dev), all sitting right at 1305. This was also confirmed by a Stoch RSI that was about to break below 20, signalling the possible end of this latest downward cycle. I went to bed last night confident that my final profit target of 1305 would be hit in the morning, ending my latest short that started at 1331. Well, boy did I have a surprise when I woke up in the morning! I mean, price didn't even hesitate at the 1305 level. It blasted right through 1305, 1300 and there was no stopping it. If you look at any shorter time frame, you will see that this move down was dramatic and without any real pause or pullback. In my post last night, I stated that the Stoch RSI is not a binary indicator. This means that just because it is oversold or overbought, doesn't mean that the cycle is over. The indicator can stay in these oversold/bought conditions for quite a some time. Look at the chart below. I've called out the period in late August when the Stoch RSI stayed oversold for over a week while price continued to move down. If you're thinking of going long, I'd recommend waiting for the Stoch RSI green line to break above the 20 level and cross over the magenta line. If you want to go short, you can wait for a pullback. The bottom BB is at 1283. That could be a good entry point. That is, if price retraces that much. Trade Safe and Protect Your Profits!
COMEX:GC1!
by GoldBands
Gold Continues to Move Down and Closer to Major SupportHello Traders! Friday's price action was very favorable for our existing short position and price moved off the long standing support trendline (magenta line) and further away from the BB midline. If you remember what I said earlier last week, the downward cycle as shown by the Stoch RSI still needed more time to complete and I thought that presented another few days of downward price action. As the Stoch RSI has not yet completed it's cycle down, I think that Gold will continue to be under setting pressure for another few days. I will say that this is in no way a done deal as price is moving into an area filled with multiple levels of strong support. The first is the dotted magenta line which is the bottom of this wedge pattern. Notice how it is right at the same level as the second BB which is the 1.5 Std. Dev. You also have the bottom of this very old channel that has been in place since July 1. That's the cyan line. And then of course is the lower BB, the 2.0 Std. Dev. @ 1306.6. Finally, there is this long support line @ 1305 which I have drawn in dotted green. You can scroll back in time and see that this has been a critical area of support and resistance dating back to March 2014, and more recently has acted as support 3 times since July. Can it hold up a fourth time? It might but also remember that today's support is tomorrow's resistance! Eventually, all S&R levels do break down. I am not saying this level won't hold, one way or another. Instead, let's see how the price action unfolds if, and when, price gets to that level. Until then, safe trading and protect your profits!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
Gold Breaks Support Line but Ends Day Back Above ItGood Evening Traders! Early morning trading saw Gold break through the long acting support trend line from January, 2016 but then pop back up to end the day above it. The move down was enough though to hit my first profit target @ 1320 where I took off half my position for a nice profit of 11+ points. It is interesting to note that price touched the BB midline at the high of the day and also touched the inner most BB (1.0 Std. Dev) at the low of the day. With this kind of price action, it's hard to read which direction gold wants to go. My only clue right now is that the Stoch RSI still has more downside potential before I would conclusively say that the downward cycle is over. In a purely protective measure, I've moved my stop to 1309, break even on my remaining position. Safe trading and protect those profits!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
Gold Hitting Support - Will it Bounce or Break Through?Good Evening Traders! Our Gold short trade made progress today. Unfortunately, it ran into the long running upward support line (the solid magenta line) at the low of the day @ 1321.1. Price then rebounded right up to the BB midline in early evening trading. It has since come back down as I write this. If price can break through that magenta support line, we could see further price erosion to the 1.0 BB @ 1318.30. Below that is the outer wedge (dashed magenta line) which is at the same level as the 1.5 BB @ 1312.40. So those are the short side price targets as I see it. The Stoch RSI appears to have a couple of days of downside left before cycling back up. Let's see where we are by the time the market opens in the morning. Safe trading and lock in those profits!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands