Time to buy SILVER?Please LIKE, COMMENT, or SHARE for your SUPPORT.
For those that know me, I've been looking at gold and silver very closely over the years. I last purchased them during the crash of 2020 with an average cost of $17 an ounce of silver and $1450 an ounce of Gold. I used the dollar cost average method to build my positions. I then sold the gold at $2050 an ounce and silver at $25.50 an ounce. This was a 50% profit move for silver and a $40% profit for gold.
All we can do as traders are enter and exit a position where it is statistically accurate based on the trend that we're in. We use indicators, other technical tools and news to spot changes in the trend early on and then build our positions when the market meets our criteria. Since then I have waited for Gold and Silver to look more attractive.
Over the last year, the velocity of currency was quickly on the rise. In other words, people were coming out of their homes and spending all their hoarded money. By creating more dollars, the supply of the total dollars rose in comparison to all the GOODS/SERVICES and ASSETS in the world. This is important since those are the true wealth of an economy. This wealth is not inflatable like the dollar. Yes, it could be inflated by the dollar causing its price in dollars to rise but you cannot create more of this type of wealth with a click of a button.
The Fed at the time was regarding inflation as "transitory," and there was still no end in sight to bond purchasing and artificially inflating the market. In simpler terms, there was no end to the money printer. The better bet seemed to be in real estate, stocks, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. I jumped ship until the Fed announced rate hikes and a smaller balance sheet. Why? Because investors were willing to in a sense "bet on the Fed." There needed to be a reduction in printing. It's begun but still not enough to fully combat the monster of inflation that is coming and what's already here.
Between the COVID impact, people not working, and being supported by the government through STIMULUS checks and other government funding programs, inflation was due to kick in at some point. This is because nothing is free. This is true even if the governments give us "free money." That money did not exist before it showed up in our accounts. Essentially, they are opening a new credit line for each person they give a check. This was not just happening in America but all over the world. The world did not gain more resources but the means to purchase those resources has been growing rapidly.
With 7.89 billion people in the world plus some who have already died and received a check, imagine what that would do when unleashed back into the world economy. America is currently flashing the yellow light to slow down the money printing while every other nation is still on the green light. This can be reflected in the US Dollar index which is a measure of a hand full of currencies vs. the dollar. Today, as these things are going on, the index shows the dollar strengthening. This is not because it can purchase more things but because the values of other currencies are going down.
Traditional markets like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and the S&P500 are not looking good. This is usually when some look for a way to hedge their positions since we don't know which way the market will go in the short term. Traditionally one way that is done is with precious metals like GOLD and SILVER. Right now, gold priced in silver is becoming more expensive. As the Gold/Silver ratio rises, it is often more desirable to hold more silver than gold and vice versa in hopes of stabilization of this ratio.
In a world of high inflation, storing one's wealth in fiat currencies is like storing your money in the S&P 500 but in reverse. Inflation is skyrocketing all over the world. Even Russia, because of the money printing, oil hikes, and the stress of war, suffered double-digit inflation. It seems like it won't be long before inflation in the US enters the double digits as well.
Enter every trade at your own risk. A trade can be short-term to long-term. Have a strategy set with rules for both short and long-term trades. Stick to it based on the fundamentals if you're looking at something to invest in for the long term. For a short to medium trade, look for a good setup and expect a shorter timeframe in which you hold your position. As you can see, the three different ways to trade are short-term, mid-term, and long-term and each requires a different approach. Even if you hedge your position in dollars, don’t forget that its purchasing power is evaporating through inflation.
None of this is investment advice.
LIKE, COMMENT and SHARE if you’d like more content like this and share your thoughts. I’d love to connect with you.
Gold-hedge
Gold is a buy, or a wait-and-buy for manyI think as a hedge against inflation Gold (or metal products) will increasingly become popular. Cryptos may be the future, and Equities may love inflation, but when fear strikes, even the most aggressive speculator may want to lay their foundation in the one thing that has historically spanned centuries as a hedge against turbulent times. Gold is old, but it's not going away anytime soon.
Silver - An opportunity of a lifetime? Hello All,
If you saw my last post about the bullish potential of Gold then Silver should pique your interest. Silver has not had a new All-time high since 1980 / 2011. Gold and Silver have a tendency to move together and act in tandem. Silver also has many use cases for technology that I will not get into here but a simple Google search can reveal that.
A large break out in Gold could push Silver much high and offer a larger percent return to the holder if this plays out. It would be good to keep your eye on these key levels over the next few months/years. This could be an opportunity of a lifetime.
This is a play that would require much patience but the time may be coming near.
Correlated assets, Great impact. Here ladies and gentleman we have the US dollar and GLD futures.
In DXY we are currently in a nice little wedge and already breaking to the downside.
Below are 2 highlighted supports that I'm seeing that could potentially be reversal points since the dollar has been in the upside since May.
We all know what this means for equities:)
In gold we are looking at a bearish descending triangle with a little bit more push to the upside of about 3% or so before resuming to the downside.
Personally I think for the dollar to reverse to support 2 that gold would go higher and push out to the upside of the triangle.
time will tell,
That's all folks
Ridethemacro |XAU/USD Trade of the week (Elections) Tarde Analsysis absed on Price action and fundamnetals:
WIth Risk Management you will never loss.
Thank you
Gold Testing Short-Term Support, Hedge Against FOMOWhile the rest of the market ran bullish at the end of the previous week, Gold dipped negative, crossing below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages. Prices are currently trading horizontally in the short term with $16 being a support level that has not been broken, despite several tests since mid April.
Low MACD amplitude swings also correlate to a near-term horizontal move as opposed to any breakthroughs, contrary to many other bullish equities. Further, the volume at the latter half of last week did not see a significantly large increase, also contrary to the FOMO activities of the rest of the market. These realities may correlate to investors of Gold being more interested in a longer term safe haven as opposed to short term swing trading.
Go long at the current support level either as a hedge against a potential market correction or purchase medium term call options as a bet on a steady average rise in Gold prices.
GOLD Projected analysis. SELL IN THE RED BUY IN THE GREENTVC:GOLD Seeing GOLD increasing. Bullish. SELL IN THE RED BUY IN THE GREEN
BTCUSD seeing trading sideways? *UPDATE*BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Outlook has not changed. Projection shows small negative return for the next month. Proving to not be a safe haven like GOLD
Silver. Will it Break or Reverse?!Silver has been on the move recently!! Its no secret that silvers price moves relative to gold, but the question I have is... Where would you go next? We are approaching resistance around the 21/22 range and I could see this going one of two ways. Price could either break higher or we could see a reversal which imo would lead to a possible triple bottom. Keep in mind that uncertainty in the market leads to a surge in speculative buying. That mixed with the relatively low price of silver, I wouldn't be surprised at a possible move to the 28 range
Gold Bulls Await A Sustained Move Beyond $1288/1295 supply zone Fundamental View :
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1. The precious metal lacked any firm directional bias on Tuesday, albeit continued showing some resilience below 200-hour SMA amid the prevailing risk-off environment.
2. Oscillators on hourly charts have been gaining positive traction and also recovered from the negative territory on the daily chart, supporting prospects for additional gains.
3. However, traders are more likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the $1287-88 supply zone before positioning for a move towards the key $1300 psychological mark.
4. Meanwhile, a decisive break below the mentioned support, around the $1280 region, might negate the constructive set-up and trigger some aggressive technical selling.
China increased its gold holdings for the fifth consecutive month in April, the People's Bank of China said on Tuesday, according to Xinhua News Agency.
Gold reserves rose by 480,000 ounces month on month to 61.1 million ounces in April. Despite the uptick, gold reserves still make up a small percentage of China's massive reserves of more than three trillion US Dollars.
The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,287 per Oz, the highest level since May 1.
And other side May 9th USD Important news is PPI and Fed Chair Powell Speaks . So dollar can be a bit stronger. 1300 is strong resistance area in Gold So Gold can be dropped by this level test.
The bullion is yet to cross $1288/90 resistance area comprising 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of March – April drop and highs marked since mid-April.
Meanwhile, an upside clearance of $1290 can trigger the prices increase to $1300 with $1297 being an intermediate halt.
Also, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $1302 and April month top near $1311 could become buyers’ favorites beyond $1300.
Technical View:
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Daily SMA100 1294.3
Daily SMA200 1253.94
Previous Weekly High 1288
Previous Weekly Low 1266.35
Previous Monthly High 1310.7
Previous Monthly Low 1265.6
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1280.44
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1282.51
Is it time to hedge stock holdings with an investment in gold?
Lagging and volatile global stocks, a strengthening US dollar, and prospects of slowed interest rate hikes combine to create a potentially bullish outlook for gold prices.
From its value of USD$2,925.51 on October 3rd, 2018, the S&P 500 has fallen 10.01% to USD$2,632.56/share. Over that same time period, the price of gold has appreciated 1.69% to USD$1,223.38/ounce. A continued downturn in US stocks coupled with a downturn in global stocks will work to potentially drive further appreciation of gold prices.
Current high levels of inflation, as indicated by growth in the US consumer price index and producer price index in 2018, should also work to create a favorable environment for gold prices. The United States has seen consumer price index and producer price index growth above 2% for every month of 2018 -- the last time these indicators observed growth in excess of 2% over 10 consecutive months was from June 2011 through April 2012, when the price of gold appreciated by 7.84%, and from May 2011 through March 2012, when the price of gold appreciated by 7.42% respectively.
Strength in the US dollar also supports a bullish environment for gold prices. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index’s current value of 96.9920 is at the highest level seen since June 2017. Historically, gold prices diverge from the value of the US dollar amid a downturn in the latter.
Prospects for deaccelerated interest rate hikes in 2019 by the US Federal Reserve also bolsters a long-term bull case for gold prices. A slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed will likely spark higher inflation of the US dollar, which may cause investors to increase gold holdings to hedge against inflation.
While indicators like a strengthening US dollar, volatile global stocks, and high inflation combine to form a bullish environment for gold, supply and demand levels for the precious metal tell a different story. According to GoldHub, supply levels of gold have held steady since 2010 while real demand for gold (by the technology and jewelry industry) has trailed off. Although the current macroeconomic environment appears favorable for an investment in gold, gold supply and demand levels actually work against this thesis. Investors seeking to hedge their stock holdings with an investment in gold should tread cautiously and plan for at least a 1-year holding period.
What do you all think about a potential investment in gold? Leave your comments below! We would love to engage in discussion and hear what everyone has to think.
Market down: Synchronicity and the power of numbersClear VIX pattern emerging :
- Volatility has been forming regular waves between every spike or market correction;
- Average duration of a wave over the past 3 years has been 107 days + or - 19 days;
- Significant spikes between waves;
- Current wave duration has been 119 days, suggesting a correction is imminent;
- Volatility spike has properly started this week.
In addition :
- My solidly trending trades have been stopped over the past week;
- Gold seems to have found a bottom and is showing renewed signs of life;
- SPX has been foppish and rebounding against a significant resistance (see post below).
Conclusion :
- Time to take money off the table and to hedge against the downside
BUY VXX (have been building < $30)
BUY GOLD (am long GG)
Gold to Break Higher - watch these levelsThe chart shows where major support and resistance is, and is there to indicate the trend. On smaller time frames you'll notice that Gold has over the past week firmly stayed at 1275, rather than dipping lower. The fact that this is happening near a turning point in a major downtrend may indicate that this an early signal to get long. If Gold moves above 1300, this would have broken the pattern of 'lower highs' over the last 12 months.
The technical i.e. price action, always drives my core view. But we could support this view with a few factors:
1. Trump has responded to N Korea's aggression with an announcement that almost certainly spells military action
2. With 9 consecutive record high closes on the Dow, and coming off levels of all-time low US equity volatility, investors may be more inclined to rotate into Gold
3. August to September is a seasonally weak time for most equity sectors
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