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GOLD-SILVER

Gold GC1 - A New ATH is Simply a Fantasy. But, a Big Trade Brewsis this thing that has traded like a boat anchor, as much of a boat anchor as Bitcoin . More or less not moving at all. Yet, as with all things, consolidation periods only last for so long before the volatility picks up again to draw in new attention. This chart is a huge amount of time and very wide ranges and so it's very hard to stuff the important info into the part associated with this call. You'll have to read my wall of text for it to all make sense. Many have wondered, myself included, how Gold could have failed to make a new high during its post-Russian Federation invasion of Ukraine pump to $2078. I myself traded this during that time and had months worth of longs established at $1,600, $1,700, $1,800 and missed the chance to get out at a profit, waiting for it to set a new high. I was very confused. Over the months, I have upgraded myself significantly and I now understand why. It's simple: Market makers were simply attacking the area above the '11 $1,923 ATH. The fact that no new high was made indicates that MMs are heavy on the sell. Unfortunately for goldbugs, this means that a new all time high is literally a fantasy. It will happen, but not until significant downside conditions are met. The total range equilibrium between the $1,069 low in '16 and the post-COVID ATH is roughly $1,550. Until gold trades below this area and there are indications longs are accumulating, there will not be a move towards an ATH again. This can be seen with a study of the monthly: And the Weekly: This is reality. Just get in line with reality and you'll be able to: a) Save losses b) Book gains Gold has traded, since September, underneath a key low, and has not followed its counterpart Silver in taking significant north-side runs. Today during FOMC madness, the one time that gold really ought to have gone up to draw in buyers based on the notion of inflation hedging, it instead ran into resistance at that $1,670 level. This mostly assures that gold is headed to new lows. In my opinion, there are two scenarios, the first is much more likely than the second, and bodes well for bulls: 1) Gold trades to the low $1,500s for a discount versus the COVID-hysteria lows for the first time in almost two years. Should it show signs of life here, Gold should reverse and head back into the $1,850-$1,900 area. But be warned this type of trading pattern will not amount to a run towards a new all time high, although it will feel like it, and all the "gurus" will assure you it will be. This type of trading pattern will constitute more selling, because a longer term move downwards is happening. 2) Gold loses all life and heads towards the $1,350 area. This will be long term bullish because, after what is likely to be at least a year of accumulation, it means that a new all time high is inbound. I believe gold will drop as equities rally more. I think that when equities start to dump, this time gold will go up, because it will drag in goldbugs and ancap types who think the dollar is on the way out and the gold standard is coming back. After you buy their bags at $1,900, gold will be crushed and you'll buy high and sell back low. Note that in terms of Commitments of Traders , although commercials are their most long they've been in three years, they're still not net long. You won't see them be net long until the $1,300s. But before then, we should see Gold mimic the patterns of silver , because more selling is in store. A final word: The biggest market risk right now is not the Federal Reserve , or a recession. Neither is it Credit Suisse collapsing. A lot of things are going to go up, and may even go up a lot (Don't believe it? Take a look at what the Dow Jones just did. Some components made a new all time high in the middle of your "Hawkish Federal Reserve" and your "recession."). The greatest market risk is that the Chinese Communist Party will either collapse internally or be thrown away by "Emperor" Xi Jinping as he, and the nation of China, struggle to survive what is happening. When that day happens, 20% days down on the indexes are going to come and there won't be any bounces. Wall Street won't be in such a mood to market make anymore, because all their collusion with the Chinese Communist Party and their implicit passive and active support of the organ harvesting persecution of Falun Gong will have many of their members scuttle into hiding. Just wait and see. Nobody thought the USSR would ever fall, and yet, it did. Overnight. Tl; dr Gold --> $1,500 with little upside in between. This is a bear trap. Then big bounce to $1,850. But the big bounce is a bull trap.
Editors' picks
COMEX:GC1!
by LordWrymouth
13
GOLD TRADING IDEA 21 NOVEMBER Trade idea gold 21 November. - Optimistic numbers of retail sales pushed dollar higher with further hawkish remarks from Fed speakers did not let dollar to break below weekly support and demand zone at 106, keeping it stable for now, This week over some PMI focus and economic overall US data, there is Fed meeting minutes that will give us better indication on whether they are still keeping their tone hawkish or dovish. 50 BPS point is being priced in, -Chicago Fed National activity index today looking for the same number as previous. After a strong impulsive upside move, buyers were in control till price reached 1780 where is present a lot of sell orders waiting to be activated. Buyers started to fade out, and more sellers jump back in to provide that exit liquidity and now currently on its way to revisit 1730. We’ll be looking to play a continuation of the bearish structure. Trade set-ups for today. Pullback 1756 - 54 sell Deeper pullback to 1763-64 is sell zone Break and back test below 1747 is sell zone Buy breakout only above 1172-73. Sell at previous buyer's exhaustion zone 1784-1785.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
2
GOLD TRADING IDEA.Yesterday we had pretty mixed data with bettter than expected unemployment claims indicating solid labor market and really bad Philadelphia data, but the labor market hold much weight alongside some hawkish Fed speakers This week overall we had slower slower volume and volatility after break of 1730 we saw shift in market structure. Overall we are still bullish bias in higher time frame, but this week we can see exhaustion by buyers and not enough fundamental catalyst to move gold upside and continuous rejection from key level 1783-1785. We wouldn't prefer to jump in higher time frame gold buy unless we are breaking above 1774. Trade setup for today. Back test to 1755-56 will be a buy opportunity. deeper pullback to 1747 is another buy opportunity, break above 1766 key level is buy, Safe buy above 1771. on sellers side a deeper pullback to 1782-1784 level forming double top is a sell opportunity, Any move below 1744 is sell opportunity after confirmation in lower time frame.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
Gold will stall/revert to near $1708 before moving higherI know many of you are very interested in Gold/Silver, but you need to understand the dynamics of price, expectation, and the unwinding of risk. The current move higher puts Gold/Silver into new Fibonacci Bullish Trending. This is what we've all been waiting for. But, the move upward from these levels is going to be staggered/legged by bullish and bearish price waves - just like price always advances or declines. The peak for this current move is very near the current highs ($1780). I'm here to tell you I expect Gold to retrace to levels near $1705~1709 where it will establish a base for the next advancing price trend (targeting $1920~1935). Get ready. Everything I've been sharing with you over the past 2+ years related to broad market cycles is taking place. The US Fed has inadvertently trapped foreign markets and speculative cryptos in a blackhole that may pull many into oblivion. I believe this inadvertent move will result in a "new normal" that may reflect a massive debt destruction phase. Right now, it is too early to tell how this will all play out. But I do believe Gold/Silver are the global base of REAL VALUE going forward (as they have always been). Follow my research.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
Waiting for confirm $DJI, plus other positions, 50% cash nowNO GAP $DJI UP so what now? Looks like there's still momentum, it's early in day Yesterdays HANGING MAN is warning sign, NOT a reason to go short, let's see how day fares Waiting for CONFIRMATION $ATVI is our largest position, rolled 1/2 $TWTR $ there $BHP #GOLD #SILVER Bought $VZ last week Own $INTC @ 28 $AMC last week Still have trailer $LEU Still hodl $CLX $MPLX $KHC Cash in major account is 50% In others it's bit less No "day trading/aggressive" $ used
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin and cryptos - time to bail? too late? safe haven?This custom chart that I post periodically continues to have excellent TA. Right now it's reflecting the volatility from recent crypto events, and less obviously but more importantly, that gold has bottomed. The spike upwards is showing us where things are headed - bullish for precious metals compared to cryptos. BTC *may* have found it's bottom (for now, though I see it headed lower still in 2023), regardless gold and especially silver will be bringing this ratio much much higher in the coming weeks, months, and years. So if you really want to maximize your crypto gains (this is not financial advice), it might be prudent (and for some, counterintuitive) to pull out of crypto (no, it's not "too late") and dip in to something that CANNOT go to zero: precious metals. But how you ask? There is a platform that does this reliably that I have done my own due diligence around (please do your own DD too), however trading view does not like me to tell you about it here. (Maybe check the comments ;) Good luck out there everyone!
TVC:GOLDLong
by greenvention
1
Gold could skyrocket higher in NovemberGold and Silver could move dramatically higher after the US Fed comments and the shift in how capital seeks safety. Precious metals have been consolidating downward for months. Now, it appears the Feds comments have shifted how traders/investors view precious metals. It is very likely this shift may prompt a very big upside price move. As traders suddenly realize the undervalued metals prices have not adjusted to the global risk factors associate with a US 5% FFR (creating global economic concerns), I believe precious metals may move sharply higher (very quickly). The Fed is on a mission and may prompt a massive global contraction as excesses and risks continue to elevate. Just like in 2004~08, precious metals drifted higher until the crisis event in 2008-09. Then, after a brief contraction, metals skyrocketed more than 85% higher over 2.5 years. We may be at the start of a 150% rally in gold (or more). Stay tuned. Follow my research
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
Euro Crashed Against The Dollar, Continuing its Bearish trend?Hello Fellow Global Forex Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook on EURUSD! Technical Analysis EUR/USD is clearly moving in a bearish continuation trend. The price also created a breakout on a rising wedge pattern, indicating a potential bearish bias ahead. The MACD indicator starts creating a death cross, confirming the possible downward movement ahead. All other explanations are presented on the chart. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/ resistance area. "Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the EURUSD" Support the channel by giving us a thumbs up and sharing your opinions in the comment below!
Short
by financialfreedomgoals101
10
Are Precious Metals Finally Reacting To Fed Fear?Myself, like many others, continue to believe Precious Metals (#gold & #silver) are about to enter a very explosive price phase. The past 12+ months have seen Gold rally after COVID, then enter an extended decline phase as the speculative bubble distracted everyone from core value. Now that the Fed and GCBs are dancing around rate increases, higher inflation, and consumer demands, will Precious Metals shift direction and start a new up trend? Time will tell, but this recent Double-Bottom in Gold certainly looks promising. I'm still cautiously optimistic the past 10+ years of extremely easy money policies will setup a huge rally phase in Metals. Near Dec 2019, my main cycle system moved into a Depreciation cycle phase. That means we have until 2029+ for this cycle to continue to unwind. Remember that is still 6~7+ years from now. The unwinding phase will be very similar to the 2000~2009 Depreciation phase - sideways trends with extreme volatility. I expect a slow melt upward over the next 3+ years, eventually extending into a parabolic upward price trend (increasing in speed and volatility as we near 2028~29). This recent BASE ($1690) will probably turn into a very strong decades-long base/support. We've never been anywhere close to what is happening in the US/Global markets before. But I'm here to tell you the real fun start after 2026~27. Until then, the global markets are shifting in structure, attempting to find support - just like what happened near 1997~2001. Get ready for another 5+ years of big volatility and trends. Follow my research. Don't miss these huge trends.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
ATLX PARABOLIC GROWTH CURVE IN PLAY TARGET $36 ATLX formerly known as BMIX is in this parabolic growth curve. Volume has been increasing steadily over the past year or so, lots of buying happening from what I see. I think this stock has a lot of potential. This is a great cheap entry point in my opinion. Also ATLX has acquired some land right next to Sigma Lithium Corp. which stock is valued at almost $40. This is not trading or financial advice this is just my opinion. Thank you and if you appreciate this content please give me a boost and follow for more updates.
ALong
by Bitgolder
6
Stronger U.S Dollar Weaken Other Currencies, Long USD/CAD?Hello Fellow Global Forex Trader/Investor, Here's a Technical outlook on USDCAD! Support the channel by giving us a thumbs up and sharing your opinions in the comment below! Chart Perspective USDCAD has rebounded in the Classic support area. Simultaneously, The USDCAD is broken out of the bullish continuation pattern ( Falling Wedge ). Furthermore, The MACD Indicator starts making a golden cross, it signifies the potential bullish movement ahead to the target area. All other explanations are presented on the chart. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area. "Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the U.S. Dollar"
Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
Silver & Gold. Long? Short?Remain neutral/bearish on gold & silver until the US10Y, DXY, & Fed Funds Rates tops. This is the first time since the de-pegging of USD/Gold (in 1975) that interest rates & the USD have been rising. This creates an extremely tough environment for gold & silver to significantly rally being under pressure from high dollar & rising interest rates. Despite strong headwinds, there are many tailwinds as well that will lead many commodities prices higher such as, the clean transition, & the dollar (usd) devaluing. Chart: FED FUNDS Rate = Blue Line
TVC:SILVER
by brandonmattis
Gold, Silver & Expensive StocksThis is a monthly chart of the DJI / Gold, going back as far as possible. It shows how many ounces of gold it takes to buy 1 "share" of the Dow Jones Index. I chose Gold instead of Silver because it's easier to conceptualize since the numbers are smaller. For indicators, I've included the following: - Shiller P/E - US Interest Rates - data going back to 1980 - Gold/Silver ratio The yellow declining lines on the graph indicate preiods where the stock market dropped in comparison to Gold (it takes fewer ounces of gold to buy 1 "share" of the DJI). In these times, you'd have hopefully sold stocks at the peak of the yellow line and exchanged all stocks for gold. When the yellow line bottomed on the chart, you'd ideally sell your gold for stocks. The "reasons" underlying these moments in time are in the indicators below - tied to either high Shiller P/E (1929, 2000) or rising interest rates (1980). The purpose of this chart is to show a few things: - Stocks have been expensive for a while due to easy monetary policy with QE (Shiller P/E bottomed in the 2008 crash). And we're still historically high (even despite coming down from the 2021 craze). - Silver is cheap relative to Gold (Gold / Silver ratio of 90:1) and Gold is "historically" cheap relative to the DJI, making silver one of my favorite investments right now. Thesis: While this is by no means is a prediction, I anticipate rates will stay elevated but not higher than 5% in the next several years. I think we'll see some more rotation out of stocks with unwinding of easy monetary policy. Inflation is still high and we could see stagflation come in. Ultimately, it's possible this is the start of another Gold/Silver supercycle (similar to 2000-2011). In short, no assets look truly attractive and we could be looking at a sidways market over the next 5 years. Personally, I like Gold and Silver over the alternatives for now. One thing is for sure, get your popcorn ready. Good luck everyone. - C $GOLD $SILVER $GOLDSILVER $DJI $SPY This is not financial advice.
TVC:DJILong
by Midnight_Trades
Commodities ALUMINIUM Short Trade Thirty Minutes Time Frame30MTF Short Indicatrors: Bollinger bands , 200EMA , RSI Bollinger bands 20Moving average rejection Price closed below 200EMA RSI Below 40 Dear traders, I have identified chart levels based on my analysis, major support & resistance levels. Information shared by me here for educational purpose only. Please don’t trust me or anyone for trading/investment purpose as it may lead to financial losses. Focus on learning, how to fish, trust on your own trading skills and please do consult your financial advisor before trading. Please do review, analyse and share your comments as well. Let us work and win together. Wish you a very happy, healthy & profitable trading day ahead! Disclaimer: I have analysed the data based on my limited knowledge.
MCX:ALUMINIUM1!Short
by mdferoz111903
GOLD Phase 3 Failure - Time for LIFTOFFIf you understand price patterns, one of the most important is what I call the Excess Phase Peak pattern. You see this pattern in up trends and at the peak/start of breakdowns in price. One thing that is very critical to understand about this pattern is the failure of Phase-3 usually prompts another wave higher. At this point, Gold has stalled out near dual support and may start a very aggressive upward price trend as we near the APEX of the Pennant/Flag formation. My research suggests an upward move (above $1870) is very likely to confirm the upper flag channel. Then price will likely stall before attempting a bigger breakout trend. What this means is.. Just like in 2003-05, gold began a "melt up" phase after the DOT COM bubble and the early US economic recovery. That melt-up phase culminated in a breakdown event (GFC 2008-09). Afterward, Gold skyrocketed higher (2011) My interpretation is that Gold is acting just like the 2004~2007 MELT UP rally phase and will likely increase another 85% from current levels - yup $3800+ Gold is on the way. Then, we enter the BIG RALLY PHASE after 2025 or so. Follow my research.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind BullsWhen crude was trading at $120 a few months ago, all you would hear on Twitter from people like Javier Blas from Bloomberg and other propaganda pundits is about how the fundamentals of oil are so bullish, because OPEC production is maxed out, the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, domestic demand because summer, the government donating the strategic reserves to Chinese Communist Party firms on the cheap , etc, etc. There was all that chatter about Europe putting a price cap on Russian oil, and that causing the price to surge overnight to $350 in some kind of dystopian nightmare. At the time, everyone wanted to get long. Everyone would only get long. I remember one day in July oil returned to $91 on like a 10% daily drop and one Twitter pundit thanked the market makers for their "delta squeezing put options" before expiry and that he was happy that he got to buy calls that cheap because it was never going to happen again. This is the way bull runs are. They tend to end when the narrative flips entirely to "who would ever short this?!" And that ending is easier for bulls when something gaps down and breaks the momentum than it is with the price pattern being employed by the WTI MMs where everything all the way up and all the way down is trading in an efficient pattern that seeks-and-destroys both ways on the shorter timeframe. In terms of specific price action, as I pointed out in my early August call that oil was on its way to far lower double digit numbers: WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning That the August price action with a quiet sweep of the July ~$86 lows, followed by a bounce, followed by a quadruple bottom, was simply too naive to think would be support. Now, we're at $81, and it once again sounds like a dip to buy. And while we're probably going to see a run back to $86~, this market is no longer in a dip to buy position. A lot of things make sense when you look at the monthly: All of this price action we just experienced in early 2021 was, ultimately, a clean up of the unfinished business from the 2008 bubble pop, which was never addressed during the 2010-2014 ranging. And really, after oil hit... -$38 during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria, you really have to call that the bottom. If you can't call -$38 the bottom, what would a bottom ever be? Now, for those who guffaw at the prospect of oil going back to $50, this is totally fair enough. As always, it sounds impossible, until it unfolds. Humans are only able to believe in what they see. Having even a modicum of faith is a real stretch for almost everyone. But I would like to point out that there is a precedental fractal left behind in the run up to the 2008 bubble pop, which you can see on the left hand side of the monthly chart above. Oil more or less traded in a miniature of this exact same 2022 pattern. When it broke its pivots before finally rocketing to $140, it amounted to a total 35% $28 downturn, which was an enormous number in those trading ranges. Everything is highly inflated and much more volatile and interesting today. The weekly chart shows just how dangerous the situation is for bulls. The reality is, the only inefficiency during this current market structure is in this $81 range, which we are sitting in. It's not showing a lot of interest in bouncing, and it would have to get back into the $100s to really count as a reversal. So if $80 isn't the target to make a bottom at, what is? Well, looking at the daily we can see more clearly that there's something of a plan B in the $69 range that can count as maintaining market structure if a reversal occurs within it. And there's also a chance to maintain the trendline at $66. But in reality, there's a fat double bottom to blow away formed from the September and December 2021 lows. And based on the weekly, there are inefficiencies left behind that were never readdressed at the unfortunate numbers around $50, and specifically right under the psychological $50 level. In my opinion, before oil turns around and rips North to levels that will make living in this world nearly impossible for everyone who isn't a billionaire, the MMs will seek and destroy these levels. And they may stop being so polite about it. It may start to come faster and faster. At some point in the near term future, dumps may come with a quick and significant gap down, and this time, they won't fill. Pundits, analysts, and all sorts of charlatans will all be stunned and bewildered by how it could happen under the macro conditions. And then they will all say "oh, of course, look at these data points. It was only natural that $120 was an inflated number." The answer, they will say, is undoubtedly "something something mainland China 'Zero-COVID' economic demand," not understanding the real state of disaster being wrought in that country as Wuhan Pneumonia goes on a tear and the Chinese Communist Party is starting to be unable to cover it up for much longer. But $125~ was not a top for WTI crude, and neither was $140. A much more painful number like $180 or $200 is coming, and it's not going to take years to get there. I believe that natural gas, likewise, has a lot of downside left to go: Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? A lot of things are probably going to bounce for a bit longer and then start to very aggressively dump. You should be prepared for this. Stop listening to talking heads, propaganda, and charlatans, and be rational. None of them want to help you survive financially and none of them want you to be rich. Most of them don't even trade. Trading is hard. Everyone who has ever traded with live funds knows how hard it is to get in at the right time, in the right direction, and hold through all the chaos and pain until something bears fruit. Fronting and flexing on the Internet to a flock of 50 Cent Party bots and collecting a 6 figure salary from Bloomberg or a 6 figure donation from YouTube's profit sharing program, on the other hand, is just so, so easy. Talk is cheap, and yet, mastery is not. Rationality is, ultimately, linked to your level of morality and your values.
NYMEX:CL1!
by LordWrymouth
4