2020 VS now ''And the groundhog says hello every day''.
The rate hikes and the Dollar strength has hit gold and silver prices hard. The dollar has now fallen back slightly.
But I don't think that will be the end.
GOLD-SILVER
GOLD & SILVER | BIGGER PICTURE
GOLD - The Yellow Metal
The precious metal has broken the all important support of $1680 after more than 2 years. On the bigger picture, we have seen forming a cup & handle pattern and was predicting a breakout above Covid high will bring it to $4000 to $5000.
However, the pattern failed badly and yellow metal formed a double top at $2070 instead.
Trendwise, the metal is trading below the 100EMA meaning the trend is downward.
Current Scenario;
As long as Gold trades below the neckline of double top ($1680); the possible target seems to be at $1350 - $1300.
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SILVER - Lustrous White Metal
The white shinning metal is also trading below the all important support of $21 which it breaks after more than 2 years time. Silver is also trading below the 100EMA making it in a bearish trend. The downside target remains open at $15 and will remain intact as long as price remains belows $21.
Let us know what do you think of the idea?
GBPUSD 15min SHORT setup We can see clear and classic formation supply/demand zone on 15 min where we can take clear short possition targeting two Take Profit points.
Which is shinier: Bitcoin or Gold? Okay plebs, listen up.
This is the chart I've been using to trade between precious metals and bitcoin, ethereum, and other cryptos. It is a custom chart, adding gold and silver with a modern ratio, doing the same with BTC and ETH, and pitting them against each other. What you get? A smooth chart that obeys technical analysis quite nicely.
And here we have a compression triangle. I drew those dotted lines of the triangle before it pinged them the last 2 times upward and downward, so I know it's legit. And what happens with a compression triangle? When it gets to that last bit like it is now, it breaks out in one direction or the other. The direction is yet undecided, but it FAVORS the direction it was going before the triangle started forming. That is, it is more than likely to break out strongly in the upward direction, favoring precious metals.
This has been building for quite some time, and indicates that the smart money has been rotating from the crypto sector to the PM sector REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU PERSONALLY FEEL ABOUT GOLD. I know, it can be a hard pill to swallow, but hey, the charts don't lie and I'd rather give it to you straight.
Makes sense, afterall, we're in crypto winter atm. At the same time, global economies are unstable, which historically favors gold.
While I believe one day digital gold will shine again, that day is probably a few years off at least. For now, real gold is what shines. Peace yall
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Want to know how I trade directly between cryptos and allocated physical precious metals? You'll have to ask me.
Analysis xauusd : 📅 09.23.2022Global Gold Analysis:
After not being able to break the strong 1656 price range, the price jumped up
It is expected that according to the strength of the buyers, the price will grow up to the range of 1696 .
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price:1671.50
sl:1663.50
tp:1696
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👤 Alireza hajighasem : @alirezahajighasem
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📅 09.23.2022
Round 2 for Bitcoin? A Rally to $25k, then possibly $35k?I'm starting to think capital will aggressively move into speculative safe-haven assets (gold/silver/platinum/bitcoin) over the next 4+ months as the global markets address Fed, stock market, credit/debt risks.
If this is the case, then the $18,975 level becomes a critical line of support.
Not that the Fed has fired off its round (rate increase), will capital move away from certain sectors and start rallying into safe-haven assets?
Time will tell...
shorting gold and silver.I missed an entry when gold and silver were going up and providing setups for a long and the only reason I did it was that I concentrate on enrty with GBP/USD. All day this pair was not giving you anything I guess because of Putin's speech and the upcoming FED interest rate. I planning to go short on GBP/USD.
Let see.
Metals Copper idea (20/09/2022)Copper futures
The rise of the metal depends on the support point 3.3625. We expect the correction in wave 2 to end at 3.4315 and the beginning of the rise in wave 3.
Copper HG - Is It Finally Time?I have witnessed much consternation on Twitter over the last months and weeks about how Copper, a critical industrial element, continues to decline in price. All the while, like most other metals, the exchange vaults are being raided of thousands of tons of physical spot, which futures markets need to back short positions.
One would think this would result in a price increase, and yet, metals have remained exceedingly bearish.
Whether Copper can constitute a commodity in a price action cycle that can be considered bullish, rather than bearish, boils down to whether or not you believe that the $5 all time high set during the 2021-2022 bull run is either the ultimate top or the medium and short term top.
Looking at the monthly, the situation is more clear:
This pattern stands in sharp contrast to say, Soybeans, which has a very similar pattern of price action, but is less bearish over the last 3 months and also failed to set a new all time high during the early 2022 supercycle test run.
Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to Go
And is somewhat more like Wheat, which did take out the previous long term high, albeit only on a short term sweep.
Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a Can
The contrast is that copper ran the old high three times already. So you really have to consider that the ultimate top may be in.
More information on Copper HG can be discerned from the weekly, which shows notable gaps above $4, a healthy V-Bottom following the July dumps, and a close, albeit not-too-close, range bottom to the key Sept' 20 pivot:
Breaking it down into the daily, we can see that July month end and August open plinked out a dump high, followed by August being characterized by a slow grind upwards before finally selling off at the end of the month:
September, thus far, has opened very bearish, taking out the August pivot (twice, now), yet retaining the overall market structure, and showing an indication that it wants to trade higher.
September is not likely to finish in a straight line down.
What I like about this call is that while I have mixed feelings that copper will ever see $5 again, despite all the fundamentals saying it really ought to trade for a lot more, the reality is that I believe if it were to turn around and dump to new lows in the low $3s or mid-high $2s, it certainly does this, more likely than not, after raiding the $4 level first, based on how price action has developed.
Currently, we're still young in the month and copper has so far traded bearishly, although it's showing a lot of promise in its price action that higher prices, rather than lower prices, are sought for now.
The situation in this world is very strange at present. Energy shortages and food shortages are looming, hard, especially if you are in Europe. Recession, aka "Depression" is looming everywhere, and yet the U.S. equities market is still trading pretty high and for a lot of us life is just normal, albeit not as pleasant as before.
The dollar index is mooning and many critical currencies from other countries, including ones as strong and crucial as Japan, are being slaughtered, and yet, no matter how siren-sounding Twitter is, price action does not reflect a degree of panic really anywhere.
Even WTI Crude Oil, which I called would trade towards the $81 mark at the beginning of August, is trading in such a fashion that despite losing 30% of its value, there is still no fear, no shock and awe.
WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning
And even so far as Natural Gas NG has already lost more than 10%, somehow despite all the fundamentals saying otherwise, nobody is batting an eyelid.
Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull?
Right now, everything, everywhere, is just business as usual, and another dip to buy.
But for how much longer?
A 72 VIX print is looming in the cards, and the lack of fear will truly have such a move catch many off guard.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
The hardest thing in trading is not determining the direction or the targets. Instead, the hardest thing is gauging and predicting _when_ the move will happen and how it will unfold, since time is weaponized, and not very many things go up or down in a straight line all that often.
Frankly, reason stands that the reality is that we will see Copper trade for prices like $10 in the relatively close future, and if so, then this price action we're sitting at is truly the place where the abyss will start to rage from.
But to go long for that day... when does it really unfold? More likely than not, if you want to aim for numbers over $5, you're looking at a date in 2023, and it's very hard to trade options and futures that far out.
And never forget, the world's greatest "black swan" looming is the coming collapse of the Chinese Communist Party .
When that day really unfolds, most of the world's population will be bamboozled and caught off guard, which is why I call it a "black swan." But in reality, it is a development that is so, so easy to see.
If you can't see it, maybe renounce your faith in communism, socialism, Marxist-Leninist stuff, and have better thoughts. Position yourself with the mentality that saw the world defeat Hitler in World War 2. The CCP has killed more than 100 million of its own people during its sanguine 100-year reign, including the 23-year-long organ harvesting persecution against Falun Gong meditation.
How much longer can a group of rogues squatting in Shanghai last, soaked in sins like that?
Rationality is simply too critical, and the level of one's rationality is connected directly to the level of their morality.
How long will friends support US Dollar as Reserve Currency? DXYSomething we've spoken on MANY TIMES
Eventually, even friends, will get tired of US #Dollar as reserve #currency
AGAIN, NOT STRONG Dollar but ALL #currencies weak They need to print that much more for trade!
Look @ #BRICS & friends trading in other fiat
#GOLD #Silver #BTC #DXY
#GBPUSD lowest level since 1985! Britain to suffer in the2020's Shown is just a simple chart for the British Pound.
For most of this charts life the #POUND has traded above the violet shaded S&R zone until the #BREXIT vote which led to the breaking of major support.
As you can see after breaking below the brown shaded S&R zone it has reversed its role to now resistance from below.
#GBPUSD has been forming the blue rectangle which has now made a new all time low in the history of this currency.
I believe it will enter a new trading zone over the next few years...
with a possibility of continuing on to its ultimate target of 0.71
meaning less than 3/4 of a dollar will buy 1 Great British POUND
Even though #BITCOIN, #GOLD, #SILVER are coming under pressure
At some point British citizens would be advised to seek shelter in alternate forms of money.
stock market update: energy and bonds dragging stocks down Market feels like a risk off and even small panic. Bonds, energy, and crypto selling off at the same time. Sentiment is red red red. Will it continue? $spy $uso $gld $slv $qqq
Gold/Silver Ratio Statistically! Something gonna be repeated ?!
According to Uptrend regression line (long) the ratio would oscillate around base line,
the rate of xau-usd descent is more.
How much should Silver be worth: compared to DEBT, GDP, M2, GOLDLets take a look at the historical charts to compare silver to other mountains of money to gauge value. Is silver cheap or is it expensive? how would we know. Lets investigate and form an opinion. SILVER SLV GOLD GLD CEF
Is still the Energy a Good Bet in perspective of recessionEnergy sector it’s the best performing market sector in 2022 instead of the latest evolution of Oil. Evolution of energy sector its close correlated with war between Russia & Ukraine. But we need to recap last week’s events.
Russia shut down its Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline last week for “maintenance” and will thereby provide Europe with a preview of how will looks winter this year. Instead of opening terminal in Estonia from Norway and new delivery from Spain, or imports from Canada & Qatar Europe can’t replace completely Russian energy and Europeans will have higher bills for energy-related products. Its expected price caps but this will result in more shortage of Gas & Oil.
There is a growing possibility in the case of a regime change in Russia that could disrupt the crude oil and natural gas markets. We support this idea because of latest development of war, Ukrainian soldiers regain 6000 KM2. Also, six of Putin’s allies have been shot or blown up, so Putin’s inner circle is becoming increasingly isolated. “Special operation” support is lowering because of Europe sanctions from 85% to 68% according to Levada.ru press agency.
In the event that there is a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, post-Putin, the stock market could explode 40% to the upside. However, as long as Putin remains in power, the Ukrainian war is expected to persist in a long, and we will have high price of energy. We reduce our profitable positions this week in anticipation of pervious scenario.
After last days of Ukrainian Army advance we can see already a turning point of conflict.
We closed some energy positions like Alvopetro (Alvof) and Petroleo Brasil (PBA) +30% opened in March because we had important gains from price appreciation and large dividends, with higher risk of president Jair Bolsonaro intervention in companies’ administration.
We anticipate Corporate Earnings to decline except Energy. We remain skeptical that a new Iranian nuclear deal will be announced in the upcoming weeks because this will affect Bidden administration and relationship between USA and Israel.
What About US Inflation
U.S. inflation may have peaked, but at high levels thus forcing the Fed to remain restrictive. Strong dollar, high mortgage rates, lower commodity prices, lower demand, and reduced supply chain pressures are likely to help reduce inflation over the next year. The U.S. dollar should stabilize over the medium-term amid hawkishness from other central banks and slowing economic data this is positive for growth stocks in short term. Right now, CPI was published and is above expected values but market overreacted this bad news. Today’s CPI report wasn’t a game changer. A “better balance” in the labor market would be a game changer for CPI next months because higher vacancies-to-unemployment ratio fuels inflation.
Just read Societe Generale opinion below:
Societe Generale Research discusses the USD outlook and sees the currency rally close to its peak. "Aggressive fiscal reaction to higher energy prices encourages our belief that while the euro and pound won’t stage significant rallies until the we’re closer to the end of the energy crisis (and the end of the war in Ukraine), the dollar’s peak isn’t very far away," SocGen notes. "A period of EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading in low ranges is more likely than fresh 10% fall from here and it’s much more likely the next 10% move in USD/JPY is down, rather than up, too," SocGen adds.
We can see at the end of the year decline in USD and we acquired new positions on Gold, Silver and Banks European Index (EXX1), also new positions in Citi (C) Societe Generale Bank (GLE).
Right now, we have a late cycle development and we prefer equities instead of fixed income like bonds. Not all equities are good to own right now, we select just strong companies with large cash flow from sectors like Healthcare, Consumer Samples and Utilities, Renewable Energy. We favor commodity and companies that mine uranium and lithium for Green Energy Industry.
Good green Companies:
ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc.
SEDG SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.
VWS Vestas Wind Systems A/S
PLUG Plug Power Inc.
FSLR First Solar, Inc.
ED Consolidated Edison, Inc.
ORSTED Orsted
RUN Sunrun Inc.
EDP-Energias de Portugal SA
968 Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd.
541450 Adani Green Energy Limited
9502 Chubu Electric Power Company,Incorporated
BE Bloom Energy Corporation Class A
SGRE Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A.
DQ Daqo New Energy Corp Sponsored ADR
Best Lithium Producers
Albemarle Corporation (NYSE:ALB:US)
Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:GNENF,SZSE:002460)
Lithium America Corp (LAC)
Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. (NYSE:SQM:US)
Allkem (ASX:AKE, OTC Pink:OROCF)
Some of the problems that markets will have to face in the near future:
Increased food and energy prices are causing acute trade imbalances and civil disorder in the most vulnerable countries. Europe will enter to recession.
China, COVID pandemic continues, massively affecting its economy. Simultaneously, the Chinese property complex – key to Chinese economic growth – is now under dire stress.
Greatest fiscal tightening in history as governments withdraw COVID stimulus will impact companies’ margins and profitability.
Population decline will pose threats to economic growths. No single G7 country’s is producing new born at replacement rate.
Climate problems, higher temperatures, on all continents will have a major impact for agriculture next years.
We see now all vectors for an epic super-bubble because all of the assets, stocks, bonds, houses are overvalued. Right now we experience first stages with inflation and interest’s rates surge but will have sooner than later lower corporate margins and unemployment.
Market update: megacaps stay down, metals hold up $qqq $slvMega caps make large percentages in the indices now a days. So if mega caps sell off, you better be certain the rest of the market is going with it. this 5% ish drop in nasdaq and tech related stocks places some of the megacap at significant levels. I hope they can hold their support, or else bad things happen.
And doesnt it make sense that if inflation theme is sticking around, that the precious metals do their job and keep up with inflation? I mean what a battle between interest rates rising and overall money supply, am i right :D Come one people, silver for example is in the same price range it was 2008 and still is below all time highs from the 70s and 80s. Precious metals havent done anything in a decade. Either precious metals dont work as inflation hedges, or the party is just getting started. Ill have the answer in a decade, cuz thats how long it takes historically to find out, (not a joke).
META SLV PLTM AAPL QQQ
$AERC back in after selling the top 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
My team entered interior air space purification company Aeroclean Technologies $AERC today at $10.60 per share. Last time we entered we didn't intend for it be a tradingview trade, but we ended up walking away with a 20.9% gain before it fell to its current share price. If $AERC starts running, we do not intend to hold it for very long. We would like to be out before Thursday.
OUR ENTRY: $10.60
STOP LOSS: $10
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Called it Perfectly. August 27 till now - LOVE IT. Were you following my research? On August 27, 2022, I predicted Bitcoin would fall to below $18,800 near a critical inflection point (9-6~9-8), then form a quick base and begin an incredible new rally phase up to $35k to $30k.
Watching Bitcoin move downward and struggle near the $18,800 level was incredible. I posted a comment that we should see Bitcoin begin a new rally phase very quickly on Wednesday (9-7).
Waking up today to see Bitcoin +$1700 and seeing the size of this rally phase confirmed my analysis was SPOT ON.
All of this was done with my ADL predictive modeling system. It can be an incredible resource when interpreted accurately.
Stay tuned; more to come - and keep an eye out for the $30k+ range/top for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin should be very close to a major bottom right nowMy analysis suggests Bitcoin needed to move below the $18.9k level in order to setup a new momentum base - then launch to levels above $25k (possibly targeting $30k or higher).
I suggest Bitcoin traders start to look for a base/bottom setup below $18.8 (if possible) as I expect a very big rush to safety taking place over the next 60+ days. I believe this flight to safety will be the result of some geopolitical event - not a Fed event. Possibly China/Russia or somewhere else.
My research suggests the second half of 2022 is highly likely to include a major cycle inflection trigger. Watch OIL, GOLD, SILVER, US Dollar and other major indexes.
Something very big is going to hit between now and the end of September 2022.
Bitcoin should start to bottom and then move above $23k fairly quickly - possibly within 10+ days.
Gold UPTREND!Hi, do you want to find out that through mathematical operation you can determine the high and low with a maximum price drop of up to 10 pips?
Write to me via TradingView and I will be happy to share this knowledge with you;)
No trend lines , patterns etc. needed.
The market is controlled by an algorithm, mathematics.
I learned this algorithm myself;)
It's Time For Gold/Silver To Make A Big Move Higher (FEAR)We've all been watching Gold/Silver - waiting for the next big move. I think we've hit the bottom RIGHT NOW.
FEAR is going to build over the end of the year as global market concerns continue to elevate. Gold & Silver should continue to rally higher off this Quintuple-Bottom level - or break downward if the Fed is able to navigate a soft landing.
Either way, it's not or never for Gold/Silver.
GOLDHELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT GOLD is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the Seller from this area will be defend this SHORT position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong SELLER will be push down the market again..
DOWNTREND + Support from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
UKOil (Brent) 4H TA : 09.01.22 In this chart, we can see the possible price trends of Brent oil! 2 scenarios are specified on the chart based on the probability of each occurrence!
Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 09.01.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
