Euro Crashed Against The Dollar, Continuing its Bearish trend?Hello Fellow Global Forex Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook on EURUSD!
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is clearly moving in a bearish continuation trend. The price also created a breakout on a rising wedge pattern, indicating a potential bearish bias ahead. The MACD indicator starts creating a death cross, confirming the possible downward movement ahead.
All other explanations are presented on the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/ resistance area.
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the EURUSD"
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GOLD-SILVER
Are Precious Metals Finally Reacting To Fed Fear?Myself, like many others, continue to believe Precious Metals (#gold & #silver) are about to enter a very explosive price phase. The past 12+ months have seen Gold rally after COVID, then enter an extended decline phase as the speculative bubble distracted everyone from core value. Now that the Fed and GCBs are dancing around rate increases, higher inflation, and consumer demands, will Precious Metals shift direction and start a new up trend?
Time will tell, but this recent Double-Bottom in Gold certainly looks promising.
I'm still cautiously optimistic the past 10+ years of extremely easy money policies will setup a huge rally phase in Metals. Near Dec 2019, my main cycle system moved into a Depreciation cycle phase. That means we have until 2029+ for this cycle to continue to unwind. Remember that is still 6~7+ years from now.
The unwinding phase will be very similar to the 2000~2009 Depreciation phase - sideways trends with extreme volatility.
I expect a slow melt upward over the next 3+ years, eventually extending into a parabolic upward price trend (increasing in speed and volatility as we near 2028~29).
This recent BASE ($1690) will probably turn into a very strong decades-long base/support.
We've never been anywhere close to what is happening in the US/Global markets before. But I'm here to tell you the real fun start after 2026~27. Until then, the global markets are shifting in structure, attempting to find support - just like what happened near 1997~2001.
Get ready for another 5+ years of big volatility and trends.
Follow my research. Don't miss these huge trends.
ATLX PARABOLIC GROWTH CURVE IN PLAY TARGET $36 ATLX formerly known as BMIX is in this parabolic growth curve. Volume has been increasing steadily over the past year or so, lots of buying happening from what I see. I think this stock has a lot of potential. This is a great cheap entry point in my opinion. Also ATLX has acquired some land right next to Sigma Lithium Corp. which stock is valued at almost $40. This is not trading or financial advice this is just my opinion. Thank you and if you appreciate this content please give me a boost and follow for more updates.
SILVER buy longAsking about silver investment it would be the safest investment in the next few years were talking about next 5 years almost to know that silver will perform better then others metals since its been a long time that silver was being a sleeping giante and next years we will see silver at lvls we never saw before . invest your dollars in silver and thank me later
Stronger U.S Dollar Weaken Other Currencies, Long USD/CAD?Hello Fellow Global Forex Trader/Investor, Here's a Technical outlook on USDCAD!
Support the channel by giving us a thumbs up and sharing your opinions in the comment below!
Chart Perspective
USDCAD has rebounded in the Classic support area. Simultaneously, The USDCAD is broken out of the bullish continuation pattern ( Falling Wedge ). Furthermore, The MACD Indicator starts making a golden cross, it signifies the potential bullish movement ahead to the target area.
All other explanations are presented on the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area.
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the U.S. Dollar"
Silver & Gold. Long? Short?Remain neutral/bearish on gold & silver until the US10Y, DXY, & Fed Funds Rates tops.
This is the first time since the de-pegging of USD/Gold (in 1975) that interest rates & the USD have been rising.
This creates an extremely tough environment for gold & silver to significantly rally being under pressure from high dollar & rising interest rates.
Despite strong headwinds, there are many tailwinds as well that will lead many commodities prices higher such as, the clean transition, & the dollar (usd) devaluing.
Chart:
FED FUNDS Rate = Blue Line
Gold, Silver & Expensive StocksThis is a monthly chart of the DJI / Gold, going back as far as possible. It shows how many ounces of gold it takes to buy 1 "share" of the Dow Jones Index. I chose Gold instead of Silver because it's easier to conceptualize since the numbers are smaller.
For indicators, I've included the following:
- Shiller P/E
- US Interest Rates - data going back to 1980
- Gold/Silver ratio
The yellow declining lines on the graph indicate preiods where the stock market dropped in comparison to Gold (it takes fewer ounces of gold to buy 1 "share" of the DJI). In these times, you'd have hopefully sold stocks at the peak of the yellow line and exchanged all stocks for gold. When the yellow line bottomed on the chart, you'd ideally sell your gold for stocks. The "reasons" underlying these moments in time are in the indicators below - tied to either high Shiller P/E (1929, 2000) or rising interest rates (1980).
The purpose of this chart is to show a few things:
- Stocks have been expensive for a while due to easy monetary policy with QE (Shiller P/E bottomed in the 2008 crash). And we're still historically high (even despite coming down from the 2021 craze).
- Silver is cheap relative to Gold (Gold / Silver ratio of 90:1) and Gold is "historically" cheap relative to the DJI, making silver one of my favorite investments right now.
Thesis: While this is by no means is a prediction, I anticipate rates will stay elevated but not higher than 5% in the next several years. I think we'll see some more rotation out of stocks with unwinding of easy monetary policy. Inflation is still high and we could see stagflation come in. Ultimately, it's possible this is the start of another Gold/Silver supercycle (similar to 2000-2011). In short, no assets look truly attractive and we could be looking at a sidways market over the next 5 years. Personally, I like Gold and Silver over the alternatives for now.
One thing is for sure, get your popcorn ready.
Good luck everyone.
- C
$GOLD $SILVER $GOLDSILVER $DJI $SPY
This is not financial advice.
Commodities ALUMINIUM Short Trade Thirty Minutes Time Frame30MTF
Short
Indicatrors: Bollinger bands , 200EMA , RSI
Bollinger bands 20Moving average rejection
Price closed below 200EMA
RSI Below 40
Dear traders, I have identified chart levels based on my analysis, major support & resistance levels.
Information shared by me here for educational purpose only. Please don’t trust me or anyone for trading/investment
purpose as it may lead to financial losses. Focus on learning, how to fish, trust on your own trading skills and please do consult your
financial advisor before trading.
Please do review, analyse and share your comments as well. Let us work and win together. Wish you a very happy, healthy & profitable trading day ahead!
Disclaimer: I have analysed the data based on my limited knowledge.
GOLD Phase 3 Failure - Time for LIFTOFFIf you understand price patterns, one of the most important is what I call the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
You see this pattern in up trends and at the peak/start of breakdowns in price. One thing that is very critical to understand about this pattern is the failure of Phase-3 usually prompts another wave higher. At this point, Gold has stalled out near dual support and may start a very aggressive upward price trend as we near the APEX of the Pennant/Flag formation.
My research suggests an upward move (above $1870) is very likely to confirm the upper flag channel. Then price will likely stall before attempting a bigger breakout trend.
What this means is..
Just like in 2003-05, gold began a "melt up" phase after the DOT COM bubble and the early US economic recovery.
That melt-up phase culminated in a breakdown event (GFC 2008-09). Afterward, Gold skyrocketed higher (2011)
My interpretation is that Gold is acting just like the 2004~2007 MELT UP rally phase and will likely increase another 85% from current levels - yup $3800+ Gold is on the way.
Then, we enter the BIG RALLY PHASE after 2025 or so.
Follow my research.
Palladium - Ascending Triangle CompletedThe dominant chart construction in Platinum is the completed 160-days ascending triangle bottom on the weekly and daily graphs with an implied profit target of 2880.
WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind BullsWhen crude was trading at $120 a few months ago, all you would hear on Twitter from people like Javier Blas from Bloomberg and other propaganda pundits is about how the fundamentals of oil are so bullish, because OPEC production is maxed out, the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, domestic demand because summer, the government donating the strategic reserves to Chinese Communist Party firms on the cheap , etc, etc.
There was all that chatter about Europe putting a price cap on Russian oil, and that causing the price to surge overnight to $350 in some kind of dystopian nightmare.
At the time, everyone wanted to get long. Everyone would only get long. I remember one day in July oil returned to $91 on like a 10% daily drop and one Twitter pundit thanked the market makers for their "delta squeezing put options" before expiry and that he was happy that he got to buy calls that cheap because it was never going to happen again.
This is the way bull runs are. They tend to end when the narrative flips entirely to "who would ever short this?!"
And that ending is easier for bulls when something gaps down and breaks the momentum than it is with the price pattern being employed by the WTI MMs where everything all the way up and all the way down is trading in an efficient pattern that seeks-and-destroys both ways on the shorter timeframe.
In terms of specific price action, as I pointed out in my early August call that oil was on its way to far lower double digit numbers:
WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning
That the August price action with a quiet sweep of the July ~$86 lows, followed by a bounce, followed by a quadruple bottom, was simply too naive to think would be support.
Now, we're at $81, and it once again sounds like a dip to buy. And while we're probably going to see a run back to $86~, this market is no longer in a dip to buy position.
A lot of things make sense when you look at the monthly:
All of this price action we just experienced in early 2021 was, ultimately, a clean up of the unfinished business from the 2008 bubble pop, which was never addressed during the 2010-2014 ranging.
And really, after oil hit... -$38 during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria, you really have to call that the bottom.
If you can't call -$38 the bottom, what would a bottom ever be?
Now, for those who guffaw at the prospect of oil going back to $50, this is totally fair enough. As always, it sounds impossible, until it unfolds. Humans are only able to believe in what they see. Having even a modicum of faith is a real stretch for almost everyone.
But I would like to point out that there is a precedental fractal left behind in the run up to the 2008 bubble pop, which you can see on the left hand side of the monthly chart above.
Oil more or less traded in a miniature of this exact same 2022 pattern. When it broke its pivots before finally rocketing to $140, it amounted to a total 35% $28 downturn, which was an enormous number in those trading ranges.
Everything is highly inflated and much more volatile and interesting today.
The weekly chart shows just how dangerous the situation is for bulls.
The reality is, the only inefficiency during this current market structure is in this $81 range, which we are sitting in. It's not showing a lot of interest in bouncing, and it would have to get back into the $100s to really count as a reversal.
So if $80 isn't the target to make a bottom at, what is?
Well, looking at the daily we can see more clearly that there's something of a plan B in the $69 range that can count as maintaining market structure if a reversal occurs within it.
And there's also a chance to maintain the trendline at $66.
But in reality, there's a fat double bottom to blow away formed from the September and December 2021 lows.
And based on the weekly, there are inefficiencies left behind that were never readdressed at the unfortunate numbers around $50, and specifically right under the psychological $50 level.
In my opinion, before oil turns around and rips North to levels that will make living in this world nearly impossible for everyone who isn't a billionaire, the MMs will seek and destroy these levels. And they may stop being so polite about it.
It may start to come faster and faster.
At some point in the near term future, dumps may come with a quick and significant gap down, and this time, they won't fill.
Pundits, analysts, and all sorts of charlatans will all be stunned and bewildered by how it could happen under the macro conditions. And then they will all say "oh, of course, look at these data points. It was only natural that $120 was an inflated number."
The answer, they will say, is undoubtedly "something something mainland China 'Zero-COVID' economic demand," not understanding the real state of disaster being wrought in that country as Wuhan Pneumonia goes on a tear and the Chinese Communist Party is starting to be unable to cover it up for much longer.
But $125~ was not a top for WTI crude, and neither was $140. A much more painful number like $180 or $200 is coming, and it's not going to take years to get there.
I believe that natural gas, likewise, has a lot of downside left to go:
Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull?
A lot of things are probably going to bounce for a bit longer and then start to very aggressively dump. You should be prepared for this.
Stop listening to talking heads, propaganda, and charlatans, and be rational. None of them want to help you survive financially and none of them want you to be rich. Most of them don't even trade. Trading is hard. Everyone who has ever traded with live funds knows how hard it is to get in at the right time, in the right direction, and hold through all the chaos and pain until something bears fruit.
Fronting and flexing on the Internet to a flock of 50 Cent Party bots and collecting a 6 figure salary from Bloomberg or a 6 figure donation from YouTube's profit sharing program, on the other hand, is just so, so easy.
Talk is cheap, and yet, mastery is not.
Rationality is, ultimately, linked to your level of morality and your values.
GOLD🥇 channel breakoutHi folks! Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free.
GOLD made new all-time high back in 2020 and then pulled back to 1676 which set the trading range for next year and a half. During that period there was a break of violet downtrendline which was subsequently backtested and provided support several times. Now just recently price tried to break down out of the range but the breakout failed as there was no real follow through and actually after few days GOLD bounced strongly and got back inside the range (above range low). Currently price is just trying to break the yellow downward channel in which price was "locked" from last march. IF it really breaks up, then we could see move to the upper range (2000ish) in next weeks/months.
See my silver analysis which supports this gold thesis:
See my Gold/Silver ratio analysis which supports this gold thesis:
Check my other stuff in related ideas.
Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺!
⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
GOLD & SILVER | BIGGER PICTURE
GOLD - The Yellow Metal
The precious metal has broken the all important support of $1680 after more than 2 years. On the bigger picture, we have seen forming a cup & handle pattern and was predicting a breakout above Covid high will bring it to $4000 to $5000.
However, the pattern failed badly and yellow metal formed a double top at $2070 instead.
Trendwise, the metal is trading below the 100EMA meaning the trend is downward.
Current Scenario;
As long as Gold trades below the neckline of double top ($1680); the possible target seems to be at $1350 - $1300.
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SILVER - Lustrous White Metal
The white shinning metal is also trading below the all important support of $21 which it breaks after more than 2 years time. Silver is also trading below the 100EMA making it in a bearish trend. The downside target remains open at $15 and will remain intact as long as price remains belows $21.
Let us know what do you think of the idea?
Which is shinier: Bitcoin or Gold? Okay plebs, listen up.
This is the chart I've been using to trade between precious metals and bitcoin, ethereum, and other cryptos. It is a custom chart, adding gold and silver with a modern ratio, doing the same with BTC and ETH, and pitting them against each other. What you get? A smooth chart that obeys technical analysis quite nicely.
And here we have a compression triangle. I drew those dotted lines of the triangle before it pinged them the last 2 times upward and downward, so I know it's legit. And what happens with a compression triangle? When it gets to that last bit like it is now, it breaks out in one direction or the other. The direction is yet undecided, but it FAVORS the direction it was going before the triangle started forming. That is, it is more than likely to break out strongly in the upward direction, favoring precious metals.
This has been building for quite some time, and indicates that the smart money has been rotating from the crypto sector to the PM sector REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU PERSONALLY FEEL ABOUT GOLD. I know, it can be a hard pill to swallow, but hey, the charts don't lie and I'd rather give it to you straight.
Makes sense, afterall, we're in crypto winter atm. At the same time, global economies are unstable, which historically favors gold.
While I believe one day digital gold will shine again, that day is probably a few years off at least. For now, real gold is what shines. Peace yall
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Want to know how I trade directly between cryptos and allocated physical precious metals? You'll have to ask me.
Analysis xauusd : 📅 09.23.2022Global Gold Analysis:
After not being able to break the strong 1656 price range, the price jumped up
It is expected that according to the strength of the buyers, the price will grow up to the range of 1696 .
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price:1671.50
sl:1663.50
tp:1696
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👤 Alireza hajighasem : @alirezahajighasem
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📅 09.23.2022
Round 2 for Bitcoin? A Rally to $25k, then possibly $35k?I'm starting to think capital will aggressively move into speculative safe-haven assets (gold/silver/platinum/bitcoin) over the next 4+ months as the global markets address Fed, stock market, credit/debt risks.
If this is the case, then the $18,975 level becomes a critical line of support.
Not that the Fed has fired off its round (rate increase), will capital move away from certain sectors and start rallying into safe-haven assets?
Time will tell...
shorting gold and silver.I missed an entry when gold and silver were going up and providing setups for a long and the only reason I did it was that I concentrate on enrty with GBP/USD. All day this pair was not giving you anything I guess because of Putin's speech and the upcoming FED interest rate. I planning to go short on GBP/USD.
Let see.
Copper HG - Is It Finally Time?I have witnessed much consternation on Twitter over the last months and weeks about how Copper, a critical industrial element, continues to decline in price. All the while, like most other metals, the exchange vaults are being raided of thousands of tons of physical spot, which futures markets need to back short positions.
One would think this would result in a price increase, and yet, metals have remained exceedingly bearish.
Whether Copper can constitute a commodity in a price action cycle that can be considered bullish, rather than bearish, boils down to whether or not you believe that the $5 all time high set during the 2021-2022 bull run is either the ultimate top or the medium and short term top.
Looking at the monthly, the situation is more clear:
This pattern stands in sharp contrast to say, Soybeans, which has a very similar pattern of price action, but is less bearish over the last 3 months and also failed to set a new all time high during the early 2022 supercycle test run.
Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to Go
And is somewhat more like Wheat, which did take out the previous long term high, albeit only on a short term sweep.
Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a Can
The contrast is that copper ran the old high three times already. So you really have to consider that the ultimate top may be in.
More information on Copper HG can be discerned from the weekly, which shows notable gaps above $4, a healthy V-Bottom following the July dumps, and a close, albeit not-too-close, range bottom to the key Sept' 20 pivot:
Breaking it down into the daily, we can see that July month end and August open plinked out a dump high, followed by August being characterized by a slow grind upwards before finally selling off at the end of the month:
September, thus far, has opened very bearish, taking out the August pivot (twice, now), yet retaining the overall market structure, and showing an indication that it wants to trade higher.
September is not likely to finish in a straight line down.
What I like about this call is that while I have mixed feelings that copper will ever see $5 again, despite all the fundamentals saying it really ought to trade for a lot more, the reality is that I believe if it were to turn around and dump to new lows in the low $3s or mid-high $2s, it certainly does this, more likely than not, after raiding the $4 level first, based on how price action has developed.
Currently, we're still young in the month and copper has so far traded bearishly, although it's showing a lot of promise in its price action that higher prices, rather than lower prices, are sought for now.
The situation in this world is very strange at present. Energy shortages and food shortages are looming, hard, especially if you are in Europe. Recession, aka "Depression" is looming everywhere, and yet the U.S. equities market is still trading pretty high and for a lot of us life is just normal, albeit not as pleasant as before.
The dollar index is mooning and many critical currencies from other countries, including ones as strong and crucial as Japan, are being slaughtered, and yet, no matter how siren-sounding Twitter is, price action does not reflect a degree of panic really anywhere.
Even WTI Crude Oil, which I called would trade towards the $81 mark at the beginning of August, is trading in such a fashion that despite losing 30% of its value, there is still no fear, no shock and awe.
WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning
And even so far as Natural Gas NG has already lost more than 10%, somehow despite all the fundamentals saying otherwise, nobody is batting an eyelid.
Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull?
Right now, everything, everywhere, is just business as usual, and another dip to buy.
But for how much longer?
A 72 VIX print is looming in the cards, and the lack of fear will truly have such a move catch many off guard.
VIX - 9x8 = 72
The hardest thing in trading is not determining the direction or the targets. Instead, the hardest thing is gauging and predicting _when_ the move will happen and how it will unfold, since time is weaponized, and not very many things go up or down in a straight line all that often.
Frankly, reason stands that the reality is that we will see Copper trade for prices like $10 in the relatively close future, and if so, then this price action we're sitting at is truly the place where the abyss will start to rage from.
But to go long for that day... when does it really unfold? More likely than not, if you want to aim for numbers over $5, you're looking at a date in 2023, and it's very hard to trade options and futures that far out.
And never forget, the world's greatest "black swan" looming is the coming collapse of the Chinese Communist Party .
When that day really unfolds, most of the world's population will be bamboozled and caught off guard, which is why I call it a "black swan." But in reality, it is a development that is so, so easy to see.
If you can't see it, maybe renounce your faith in communism, socialism, Marxist-Leninist stuff, and have better thoughts. Position yourself with the mentality that saw the world defeat Hitler in World War 2. The CCP has killed more than 100 million of its own people during its sanguine 100-year reign, including the 23-year-long organ harvesting persecution against Falun Gong meditation.
How much longer can a group of rogues squatting in Shanghai last, soaked in sins like that?
Rationality is simply too critical, and the level of one's rationality is connected directly to the level of their morality.
How long will friends support US Dollar as Reserve Currency? DXYSomething we've spoken on MANY TIMES
Eventually, even friends, will get tired of US #Dollar as reserve #currency
AGAIN, NOT STRONG Dollar but ALL #currencies weak They need to print that much more for trade!
Look @ #BRICS & friends trading in other fiat
#GOLD #Silver #BTC #DXY
#GBPUSD lowest level since 1985! Britain to suffer in the2020's Shown is just a simple chart for the British Pound.
For most of this charts life the #POUND has traded above the violet shaded S&R zone until the #BREXIT vote which led to the breaking of major support.
As you can see after breaking below the brown shaded S&R zone it has reversed its role to now resistance from below.
#GBPUSD has been forming the blue rectangle which has now made a new all time low in the history of this currency.
I believe it will enter a new trading zone over the next few years...
with a possibility of continuing on to its ultimate target of 0.71
meaning less than 3/4 of a dollar will buy 1 Great British POUND
Even though #BITCOIN, #GOLD, #SILVER are coming under pressure
At some point British citizens would be advised to seek shelter in alternate forms of money.