XAU Inside barGold has formed an inside bar from Thursday rally, Monday has the potential to cause XAU to return to a price in which Xau has previously experienced high levels of transactions.
GOLD-SILVER
Daily Futures Volatility Forecast 23 May 22 Gold, Silver, OilGOLD 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 1.06% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 1845 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 1845 + 20 -> aprox 1865
BOT 1845 - 20 -> aprox 1825
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 1.55%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 1845 + 28 -> aprox 1873
BOT 1845 - 28 -> aprox 1817
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SILVER 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 1.86% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 21.73 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 21.73 + 0.4 -> aprox 22.13
BOT 21.73 - 0.4 -> aprox 21.32
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 2.92%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 21.73 + 0.64 -> aprox 22.36
BOT 21.73 - 0.64 -> aprox 21.09
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Crude Oil 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 3.19% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 110.5 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 110.5 + 3.55 -> aprox 114
BOT 110.5 - 3.55 -> aprox 107
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 5.1%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 110.5 + 5.66 -> aprox 116
BOT 110.5 - 5.66 -> aprox 105
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Weekly Volatility Forecast 23-29 May 2022 Gold & SilverGOLD 23-29 May 2022
We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 3.66%
This is translated into 68$ from the current point.
So lets imagine that GOLD is going open Monday candle around 1845
With that in mind, with close to 86% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have:
TOP 1845 + 68 -> aprox 1913
BOT 1845 - 68 -> aprox 1777
If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 76% probability.
In this case the volatility would be around 2.75% => 50$
TOP 1845 + 50 -> aprox 1895
BOT 1845 - 50 -> aprox 1795
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SILVER 23-29 May 2022
We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 6.93%
This is translated into 1.5$ from the current point.
So lets imagine that SILVER is going open Monday candle around 21.7
With that in mind, with close to 86% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have:
TOP 21.7 + 1.5 -> aprox 23.2
BOT 21.7 - 1.5 -> aprox 20.2
If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 76% probability.
In this case the volatility would be around 5.2% => 1.1$
TOP 21.7 + 1.1 -> aprox 22.8
BOT 21.7 - 1.1 -> aprox 20.6
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Volatility 19 May 22 Metal Commodities Copper, Gold, SilverHG/ Cooper Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.45%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.82%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.077
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 82% probability for today are going to be
TOP 4.231
BOT 4.08
GOLD/ GC Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.88%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.1%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 19.86
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1835
BOT 1795
SILVER /SL Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5630 candles our expected volatility for today is around 1.68%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 2.1%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.45
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 84% probability for today are going to be
TOP 21.88
BOT 20.98
XAUUSD LONG TO 2140Market structure is offering us a beautiful opportunity to long the Gold markets towards 2140, a new all time high! After Wave 3 hit a peak of 2060, we saw a strong and deep pullback towards 1790 which would be considered Wave 4. We are now ready for the next bullish leg up towards 2140-2160.
I will be catching this move on behalf of myself and my Account Management investors. Drop a like if you agree or let me know what you think. Feel free to drop a follow if you want to keep up with all the latest analysis!
Silver and Gold have outperformed the SPY - and it will continueThis chart shows how Silver and Gold continue to outperform the SPY in 2022. I expect this trend to continue as I expect both Silver and Gold to recover to new All-Time Highs very quickly.
This deep selling in the US and global markets is an indication that a contagion event may be building. I strongly suggest China/Asia may be the source of this event (including Emerging Markets).
Debt levels in these areas are excessive and the unwinding of the speculative consumer cycle could last 15+ years (based on my expectations).
This puts Gold and Silver on a target to rally well into 2031-32 - possibly longer.
Are you following my research yet?
XAUGold will rally higher if we see a continuation of the bearish pressure from friday, if we see DXY to keep falling then expect strong rallies in Gold next week.
⭐️GOLD: forecast for May 16-May 20➡️ Precious metals are under strong pressure from sellers, at the moment, the bearish trend in the market continues to strength in Gold. Thus, the US dollar will continue to be the focus of market participants in terms of risk aversion.
It is assumed that this bearish trend will persist for some time, after which it will begin to recover. Growth under 3000 and 4000 looms very, very unlikely. This scenario is unlikely, and transnational companies will not be interested in such prices. The products and services of these organizations will simply have a gigantic price tag that no one can afford.
At the moment, we can consider a long from the level of 1780. The target of growth is the level of 1850. So far, it is very risky to set goals higher, since the liquidation of longs will continue with a high degree of probability.
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👍 Thanks for your comments and likes 👍
👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
Gold - Bullish circle With the attack on the Ukarine, gold prices hit the old peak from Corona August.
After the last interest rate hike was announced, there was a series of consolidations on the commodity markets. Including the gold and silver prices.
Unlike the gold prices, the silver prices have hit an important support line, which I will also provide an update on.
Nonetheless, gold prices have taken an interesting chart-technical shape over the years. The mix of geopolitical and fiscal events has caused gold prices to slowly but surely adopt a bullish formation. We have impulses from several areas:
- rising inflation
- geopolitical problems
- higher US debt (another topic in the next silver article)
- Weakening of the crypto market and with it a restructuring of the liquidity inflows
Gold as a safe haven investment will definitely be an interesting topic. Also because this is considered a good headger for economic inflation.
How do you feel about gold? Do you own physical ?
Do you think gold prices will dominate in the long run? Are we then talking about worse economic data in the future?
If I forgot something or you want to add something, write your opinion in the comments.
XAGUSD (SILVER) LONG Hellooooo traders...another one!! Silver has taken out equal lows (Liquidity) and seems ready for a move up. Gold is also showing a sign of an up move. My TP is set at the order block $25.643. Trade with care...BLESSED WEEK AHEAD.
Copper Falls - An OpportunityIn May 2021, the nearby COMEX copper futures contract reached a record $4.8985 per pound. After a correction to just below the $4 level in August 2021, the red nonferrous metal made higher lows and higher highs, leading to another all-time peak at $5.01 per pound in early March 2022.
Range trading gives way to a downside break
Goldman Sachs believes higher highs are on the horizon
Copper is a green metal with the demand outstripping supplies
It will take a decade to bring new production online
Buying copper scale-down on the dip could be the optimal approach
The new record high on March 7 led to a period of consolidation where copper traded between $4.60 and $4.60 per pound. On April 25, the leader of the nonferrous metals fell below the bottom end of its trading range to the $4.40 level. The decline in copper could be the perfect opportunity to load up on the metal that Goldman Sachs calls “the new crude oil” because of its requirements for green energy technology.
Range trading gives way to a downside break
On May 7, the continuous COMEX copper futures reached a new all-time high at over $5 per pound.
The chart highlights the rally that took COMEX copper futures above the May 2021 $4.8985 peak to $5.01 per pound in early March. Copper rallied on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the highest inflation readings in over four decades.
The chart illustrates July copper futures traded in a range from $4.4710 to $4.7660 per pound from mid-March through April 22. On April 25, the price dropped below the bottom of the range on the back of the prospects for higher US interest rates and the rising value of the US dollar against other world reserve currencies.
Higher rates increase the cost of carrying raw material inventories, and a strong dollar tends to be bearish for commodity prices as they rise in other currency terms. However, 2022 is anything but an ordinary year as inflation will keep real interest rates in negative territory, and all currencies, including the US dollar, are losing purchasing power.
July copper futures traded to the most recent low on May 2 at $4.2040 per pound, the lowest price in 2022, and since December 15, 2021, when it found a bottom at $4.1105. The short-term technical trend is bearish, but the longer-term path of least resistance remains bullish. Moreover, supply and demand fundamentals tell us that the current dip in the nonferrous metal is a buying opportunity.
Goldman Sachs believes higher highs are on the horizon
In 2021, as copper was on its way to the May $4.8985 high, Goldman Sachs’ analysts called copper the “new oil” because of its role in green energy technology. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other alternative energy initiatives require ever-increasing copper supplies. Goldman pointed out that decarbonization does not occur without copper.
The leading financial firm expects copper prices to rise to $15,000 per ton by 2025. At that level, COMEX futures will eclipse $6.80 per pound, nearly 60% above last week’s closing level at $4.2670. Other analysts expect even higher copper prices. Meanwhile, markets tend to move to prices on the up and downside that defy logic and reasonable and rational analysis. It is impossible to identify tops for bottoms in significant bull and bear market periods. The latest example was crude oil, which fell to below negative $40 per barrel in April 2020. No analyst saw that price coming.
Copper is a green metal with the demand outstripping supplies
Copper demand is set to rise over the coming years, but supplies to meet requirements will be a challenge for at least three reasons:
Addressing climate change - ironically, copper demand will rise because of green initiatives, but net-zero carbon emission pledges by mining companies will weigh on production. Copper production is energy-intensive, requiring hydrocarbons.
Rising production costs - Inflationary pressures have caused labor, financing, energy, equipment, and all mining input costs to rise, putting upward pressure on prices and downward pressure on output.
Supply chain and political issues - Global supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause problems in transporting all commodities from production sites to consumers. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape is creating price distortions. The war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, Russian retaliation, and the “no-limits” support between China and Russia create an ideological bifurcation with the US and Europe. China is the world’s dominant copper consumer. The tensions distort all raw material prices, and copper is no exception.
The prospects for a growing deficit in the copper market are high in 2022.
The five-year trend in LME copper warehouse inventories has made lower highs and lower lows, indicating that robust demand is outpacing supplies.
It will take a decade to bring new production online
The cure for high prices in commodities is always the high price level as producers step up output to take advantage and earn more profits. In copper, it takes eight to ten years to bring a new mine into production, meaning the high prices in 2022 will only yield new and higher output in 2030. Moreover, the leading mining companies are scouring the world for new proven and probable reserves. BHP, a leading mining company, is even exploring the potential for a copper project in the challenging political climate of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. BHP calls the area a “tougher jurisdiction” because of the DRC’s long history of corruption and political instability.
The bottom line is production will struggle to keep up with copper’s growing demand.
Buying copper scale-down on the dip could be the optimal approach- A similar pattern to the May through August price behavior
The latest price action in the copper futures market looks very similar to the move from the May 2021 high to the August 2021 bottom.
The chart shows the decline from $4.8985 in May 2021 to a low of $3.98 in August 2021, an 18.8% correction in five months. Copper futures only traded below the $4 level for one day in August 2021.
The most recent correction took the red metal from $5.01 to $4.1900 per pound or 16.4%. If copper holds above the $3.98 level, it will make another in a long series of higher lows since the March 2020 bottom at just over $2 per pound.
I favor buying copper on a scale-down basis as supply and demand fundamentals and the long-term technical trend remain bullish. The short-term trend is bearish, but that could be an opportunity for those looking to accumulate the nonferrous metal that is a critical component in climate change initiatives. I expect higher highs in copper over the coming years.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
THREAD #3 : Commodities Update ‼️I know it took time to get this thread update, I'm sorry for that, but here it is !
▶️ How it works ?
Ask me in comment my chart analysis of the asset you want if it didn't have already done under. If I find something intersting to say and show, I will update the idea with it. A comment of each asset expose will be post under, come react about it or debate.
▶️ Before to start I want to remind that we are in a period of conflict and news can emerge at any moment with strong effect and reaction on market. So invest carefully on this hard times and reduce your loss exposition on market when you can. Don't forget to take profit too.
CRUDE OIL ✅
One of my perspectives in the last update was to see price going to the A line before to fall back rapidly, we falled but we can see we stopped just before the resistance. Precision of the market is remarquable so I keep this target in mind to get reach it in the future. For the moment we can expect a return on the 2b line, constructing a channel, even if the exact channel would be to target 3b but it can be an exageration of the market. Like each commodities update, I remind that it's a highly manipulated asset so, or stay away of it, or be very careful of your loss exposure.
GOLD ✅
"The chart don't have change since the commodities update of the 20th of January. We are coming to the end of the bull scenario. I invit to take profits on the conjoncture of the resistance area and the (2c) resistance. There is no interest to sell a refuge asset like gold, even more in this time of conflict. So if there is selling signals take it like an opportunity to buy it lower. Especially here, we will wait for buying signals on the (1b) or (1a) support and the best case would be the support area of $1,700 - $1,675 but far from now."
This was my exact words two months ago, I think there is nothing to add because it's exactly what is happenning. We've seen a buying pressure on (1b) but without buying volume, so no reason to buy, now we are going for the next area : the (1a) support. Wait signals, if there isn't on (1a), wait the support.
SILVER ✅
Like for the gold : "I don't expect a breakout of (1b) and the resistance area, so for me we will see the construction of a range between them around $27 and $29. The biggest probability for me is a bull outcome of the range to target the (1c) resistance (scenario A) and probably more after. If we reject the resistance strongly after lateralization I expect price to go deeply retest the (1a) support around $20."
Very close again from the reality, in fact, we ranged (2$ lower from my expectations). Unfortunetly we didn't got the bull outcome and strongly rejected on supply. Like expected a deep retest to the supports. Speaking of now, the close of tonight is really important cause we broke the 2b support and reacted with buying pressure on support area. If we close tonight back inside the channel (upper of (2b)), we could expect a reintegration and so with buying volume tomorrow, a confirmation of it. Else we could expect a simple pullback on the broken support (which mean short opportunities on lower timeframe) to go back lower to the expected bear scenario of 2 month ago, the $20 area. Furthermore we can see a stop hunt pattern taking place on support, nice setup to see climax.
COPPER ✅
Copper have been one of the assets that I most spoke. Because of the Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern we had, and which brought signals and targets. The last update was the failed SOS, closing the long position because of the expectation to see a pullback to the support. In fact we are going for it, we are always in between so expectations didn't changed. We will see on support if we have long signals to exploit. Maybe we could build a bigger Wyckoff pattern (reaccumulation or distribution), in this case it would be really interesting because we could exploit as long and short signals around, respectively, support and resistance.
PLATINUM ✅
Very similar as silver we can observe the sames patterns, sames signals. So no much things to add, if we reintegrate we can exploit pullback on (2b), else we wait opportunity given by stop hunt to take a deeper position around $840 or $760.
PALLADIUM ✅
"We made an SOS which has also failed. So technically, the biggest probability is to see it go down on the (2b) line in a first time (scenario A) maybe more with (1a) before to retest the resistance (1b)."
Nothing more to add again, the plan continue to go in the right way. We are ranging around (2b), no signal for the moment so we can expect a continuation to (1a) (SCENARIO A) but it's important to stay aware about the possibility to see a Wyckoff acummulation here (SCENARIO B), no signal of it for the moment.
WHEAT & CORN ✅
The master word on the last update on wheat was to take profit on ATH because of the expectation of a strong selling pressure like oil, in fact it happened. We already made half of the job to go back to the last resistance being broke. Wait signals around here to target a retest of ATH. Else each broken resistance become a nice spot to target entry. Corn is similar to it. For both, with the macroeconomic context we can expect retests of ATH. In all case stay careful, it stay heavily influenced by the macroeconomic dynamics so from news also.
SUGAR ✅
A nice way to finish is to speak from the plan we had in the last update and which succeed ! We had a Wyckoff Reaccumulation Pattern, it was EXACTLY the same setup as the one on the copper which also succeed. The spot to survey was the pullback on the creek, entry signal was perfect on H4 timeframe. Target on 2:1 ratio, then second target on resistance level, then exit because of the failed SOS. It was a nice setup shared it and I'm happy of that.
Let's speak of future expectation now, it's really close to the copper analysis. We will see if we could build a bigger pattern, in this case everything is exploitable ON SIGNALS always!
Furthermore we stay in a monthly interest area where as Wyckoff Reaccumulation and Wyckoff Distrubution pattern could bring to a big movement. So it will be an asset to look closely on in the future.
🛑"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"🛑
👉 Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue !
*Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
GOLD - Follow The Yellow Brick RoadAll you need to know is Gold just reached levels near the lower range of the Yellow Brick Road (YBR). The price channel Gold has continued to stay within should drive prices back higher if it is not broken by some external market event (think global collapse). Even then, if it is broken, Gold will recover and continue higher after a deeper pullback.
Right now, I see these lows as a fantastic opportunity to BUY THE DIP. Same thing with Silver.
These lower ranges present very solid opportunities for skilled traders. The next few weeks could see a solid rally back above $2100 - then targeting $2600 or higher.
Here we go. Get ready for a solid move higher over the next 5+ weeks.
US30Y: Rising Yield as the expectation of Rising Interest Rate?U.S. Inflation has surged significantly to 8.5% in March 2022, It hits a new forty-year high. As the Inflation keeps increasing month over month, The Federal Reserve is committed to tackling inflation by Rising Interest Rate, potentially 0.50% in May 2022. The rising interest rate will cause bond prices to fall. Consequently, The Bond yield will be increased.
Chart Perspective:
US 30 Years Government Bond Yield (US30Y) has broken out of the falling wedge pattern. US30Y is also accompanied by a golden cross on the MACD indicator.
We conclude from the macro and chart perspective, That is a potential bullish outlook for US 30 Years Treasury Yield.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area.
*Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*
GOLD: FALLING WEDGE, NEW LONG OPPORTUNITY?Hello Fellow Gold Bugs!
From a technical perspective, Gold is forming the falling wedge pattern. The trend analysis also indicates a bullish movement. Therefore, We expect Gold will move upward to the target area.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area.
*Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*
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gold is near to very strong support and demandeverything is clear on chart price is near to very strong support level just like silver
Silver vs GoldSilver vs gold seems to be a killer trend trade. Silver has been very strong lately but gold could make some interesting moves as well.
Good luck and hedge your bets!
PALLADIUM - BULLISH ACCUMULATION ARCHello :)
We have 9H bullish accumulation chart of Palladium.
Targets on the move up are $2957.50 & $3433.
TA on 5h chart also gives us bullish signs
Keep it simple guys!
Until the next one
GOLD SILVER5.1.22 Gold and Silver at support: looking got buyers and a move higher.................................
What if I told you the SPX would rally to above 5800What if I told you the SPX would find support and rally to levels above $5800 over the next 4+ years? Would you believe me?
I doubt it, but my research suggests this current downtrend may be very short-lived.
Follow my research. Learn how my research can help you protect and grow your wealth.
Gold has bottomed. $1887 likely new support baseFollow my research. Gold looks very solid as a bottom here and I believe the next move higher will be to levels above $2133.
My custom index shows the precious metals sector has reached a 3.5 year BASE. The next 3.5 years should be almost STRAIGHT UP.
Get ready, this could be very explosive.
92e Uranium. Looking for a move higher$92e.ax
-Weekly candle holding the breakout.
-EMA's about to cross.
-Push past 0.62-0.630 supply and its away imo.
