Get started

GOLD-SILVER

The Commodity SUPER CYCLE is upon us!Hello All! This is a macro view of Commodities (Metal, Energy, Livestock & Meat and Agriculture). As you can see we have broken out of the falling wedge formation and we are pushing towards 4 main resistance levels. Commodities have not hit a new all time high since 2011 which was during the low of the housing market crash. These levels will be key economic indicators moving forwards into 2022 and beyond. Right now the upward trend has not broken, the levels to watch are posted on the chart. 1. Metals are forming long-term bullish patterns & recent high increase in inflation 2. Meat & Livestock prices have been rising (you can see this in the grocery store) due to Covid & other factors. 3. Gas & Coal have been rising bringing Electric higher. Energy crunch. 4. Energy & Fertilizer prices are increasing which in turn increases agriculture costs. Economic factors have been driving these prices higher across the board. This in-turn will increase the cost of living.
SP:SPGSCI
by GenesisGo
Precious Metals on a very important inflection pointYesterday, Gold has broken above a very important level, 1830, a level that acted as resistance since July last year, and at this moment we may wonder, is this just a spike, or Gold has resumed its long-term uptrend? Looking at the posted weekly chart we can see that after the strong reversal that followed August's low, the yellow metal has put in higher lows on our chart in September and in December (also this low is confirming a strong support zone at 1750-1760). Last week Gold has reversed again, this time from under 1800 and, as I said, yesterday it has broken above horizontal resistance. At this moment XauUsd is facing an important figure, both psychological and technical, 1850. A break above this level would put bulls in a very good position and could lead to further gains towards the 1875 last high's resistance. Also, a break is extremely important, putting a stop to the sequence of lower highs started back in August 2020. Platinum: Unlike Gold, the recent high for Platinum happened in February 2021, and since then XptUsd corrected more than 30% to 900 zone, a zone that acted as support for more than 5 years. At this moment the price is back above 1k and just under a very important technical confluence resistance provided by the falling trend line and the horizontal level. A break here is also very important, signaling resumption for the uptrend started back in March 2020 and giving scope for big gains for Platinum in 2022 (even to 1500) Silver: XagUsd's was more clear and technical than Gold's, with the price stoping and reversing for 5 times from 21.50-22.00 zone and confirming this old resistance as strong support At this moment here also the price is facing an important zone and once Silver gets above, considering its violence and volatility I wouldn't be surprised to see the price at 50usd and a doubling in value.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
9
XAUUSD UpdateOk, so at this moment in time, the count on the chart suggests that gold should sell-off. Alternatively, we may continue rallying to form a red wxy. All that is not consistent with a likely bounce in stocks. I have 0 positions in stocks and heavy shorts in gold , therefore I am biased and can be a victim of confirmation bias. So either gold decouples from stocks and fall when stocks rally (can happen and did happen in the past foretelling a coming decline in stocks) or my outlook is wrong in either instrument (more likely ))) I would hate to think that we are in an even more bullish scenario which I previously indicated in orange. That is a lot of ElliottWave counts to waste.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Fomenka
13
Gold/silver ratio implies outperformance for silverI was chatting to a techie friend of mine (Thomas Anthonj) last week and he told me to have a look at the gold/silver ratio as he suspected that it has completed the 5th wave of an Elliott wave count, so this morning I took a closer look and yes, I think he is right. In addition, the market has remained capped on the topside by its 200-week ma at 82.10 and we also note the divergence of the weekly RSI. This is a measure of momentum and divergence normally indicates a loss of upside momentum. Given that we both think the gold/silver ratio has topped, this would suggest that gold will under perform silver. So is silver the better bet for an up move? I took a look at this on both the daily and weekly charts and was reasonably uninspired but when I got to the monthly chart this was looking a whole lot more interesting! The market has spent months consolidating just above the 21.17 long term pivot and looks to be base building longer term. So, we suggest that silver is a market that needs to go on the radar we suspect as this should see a decent recovery off such solid support. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:SILVERLong
by The_STA
DeGRAM| SILVER strong support On Friday, the sellers were able to bring the price back under the resistance line, which stopped the price from moving up. However, this upward movement is expected to continue next week. There is a strong support near the level 22.65690, which the sellers will hardly be able to overcome. Thus, near the specified level, you can look for entry points to buy next week. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with Like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by DeGRAM
5
$US30 1/13 chart analysis *This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* The volatility in the markets as of late has gotten boresome. Up and down, side to side, and left to right. It's insane. I'm sure a lot of day traders have been taking great advantage of this and profiting; however, the markets are finally appearing more decisive. Let's go over recent late events that will support that claim. 1.) Russian/Ukraine: It has become obviously clear that Russia will invade Ukraine. Putin believes firmly that Ukraine joining NATO will be horrific to Russia. War in order to stop Ukraine from joining NATO isn't a decision in Putin's eyes...it's an ultimatum. 2.) Russian troops leaving Kazakhstan after restoring order. (Conflict Resolved) 3.) Covid-19 continues to surge, but it's clear that Bidens only response is testing, vaccinations, and masks. It's been made clear that despite Omicron's spread surging to record highs the possibility of another lockdown is close to zero. This administration knows that it cannot afford to go through another lockdown without there being financial ruin. Return to normal as soon as possible is their only aim in sight. 4.) Russia will without a doubt sever ties with the U.S once sanctions are imposed for invading Ukraine. How this will impact $DXY is unknown, but my team is speculating that this event would cause it to drop. 5.) The Feds accurately predicting that inflation would hold at 7% is a good look. It makes it look like they have things in control. We are also still in QE phase. Raised rates will start no earlier than March, and this gives the market ample time to break all-time highs once again. In addition, we most likely have a strong retail sales report coming out tomorrow that can give $SPY the boost it needs to get things rolling. If everything that we have laid out does come to fruition, then we see $SPY futures going up along with commodities such as Oil, Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver Our odds: Target A: 79% chance of playing out Target B: 58% chance of playing out If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
ULong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Gold and Silver have been Outperforming Cryptos since Nov 9thIn this custom precious metals (Gold and Silver) versus top cryptos (BTC and ETH) you can see the last lowest low was November 9th in what appears to be a bottoming formation. Price ratios continued in an upward channel (shown in yellow) and have just confirmed a breakout upwards from that channel. Suffice it to say, PMs have been outperforming major cryptos since early November 2021. This is not financial advice. The trend is your friend, so it may be time to rotate crypto holdings into #gold or #silver or a ratio of both. Luckily there is a platform that allows you to do this directly called Kinesis. Kinesis also allows the storage AND delivery at any time of your precious metals, and in a specifically allocated account (no unallocated pools). They also offer 5 ways to partake in their fee-sharing program including the holder yield - which means it's not just free storage, but you get paid to store with them. Check out their informative videos to find out more or sign up kms.kinesis.money
TVC:GOLDLong
by greenvention
2021 Letter to SubscribersWhat’s up traders! As we close out 2021 I wanted to write a letter to my subscribers to recap the year of 2021 and put forth my ideas for 2022. I hope everyone had a great year and wish everyone a Happy New Year! I would first like to thank everyone reading this. Via Tradingview, Discord, or Youtube you have found this humble trader that just wants to share ideas and experience in hopes that other traders’ journeys will be successful. I appreciate everyone that has joined the conversation to share ideas. I set out to create a trading community free of scams and full of actionable ideas. In the little under a year since I started the Discord it has grown incrementally and comfortably (rather than exponentially and chaotically). I would count this as a chief success of 2021 and once again thanks to all that made it possible! 2021 Portfolio Performance (yours and mine) 2021 was a bullish year for literally “All The Things.” I came out of the year positive and my hope is that everyone else did as well. Just as the New Year is a time for making fitness resolutions… make your trading plan resolutions. Don’t compare yourself to a benchmark. Measure your progress in terms of how you followed rules, controlled emotions, and sought opportunity. Believe it or not, if you are a new trader and came out positive net of commissions you have achieved the first milestone on the path to consistent success. Your next step is to widen that gap of profitability. Go back and look at all of your trades or at least your biggest winners and biggest losers. Figure out what you are doing right and wrong. Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t. It can actually be just that simple. If you did not come out profitable then wtf did you do? Before you jump into 2022 it behooves you to go back through your trades (or at least your biggest losses) and figure out what went wrong. Create an IRON rule for 2022, phrased in a single sentence, and post it with tape to your trading computer monitor. Cryptocurrencies 2021 was a great year in cryptocurrencies. Many expected Bitcoin to reach six figures, Ethereum to be over 9000, and Shiba to hit 1 cent before EOY. These price anchors did not pan out for them. That does not mean that hope has been dashed for all budding crypto billionaires. Twitter abounds with bullish projections and Stock-to-Flow Model revisions that assure readers this is a brief pause. There is still plenty of hopium being smoked. My analysis is much more simple and has remained in effect since mid November. Price should have broken out Q4 with strength and momentum to go higher. It did not. My position remains net short following the failed breakout. This means I am overhedged to the downside on the primary coins I like; Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. If these break their all time highs with a good solid Weekly close then I am wrong. If I am correct that the top for this crypto cycle is in and a bearish trend has begun then 2022 is going to be a painful year for HODLers. I will expect the bearish trend to go on through 2022 and possibly into 2024 with a long term target of $17k Bitcoin which represents a conservative -75% drawdown from the All Time High. This would be the 5th such move in Bitcoin’s history. Crypto as an asset class is highly correlated and I would expect nearly every coin to have a similar trajectory but Bitcoin to actually be the least volatile. Historically it has proven to be the “safe haven” cryptocurrency asset of bearish cycles. I would expect there to be bullish rallies throughout the trend but none recapturing the All Time High in 2022. Psychologically to get someone to buy Bitcoin at $69k they need to promise themselves they will see far higher than $100k. That is why anchors are a fallacy of trading. You also need a whole fresh set of investors lacking all hesitation and memory of drawdowns to continue the move. Through 2020 and 2021 everyone, their aunt, and their grandmother knew about cryptocurrency. Who is left? Latin American countries I am told. Is it such a good idea to tell citizens already in some of the poorest of circumstances to put what meager wealth they have into an asset with a history of no less than 4 drawdowns of over -80%? Rhetorical. When Bitcoin is once again (for the upteenth time) called dead, when it is no longer seen as “the future of money”, when everyone and their grandmother is frustrated they only lost money, and when optimism has completely given way to disgust… then Bitcoin can bottom. I’ve seen it time and time again. Stock Market Fun fact: 2021 is the first and only year in history for the SPX (S&P 500 Index) to post a new ATH every month. (1995, 2014, and 2017 missed with only 11 ATH months). I did the check myself in a spreadsheet this week to write my letter before it was published by any FinNews sources. Asked by a friend in December 2020 if I thought 2021 the stock market would go up in 2021 I said, “I am betting that 2021 will close higher than 2020.” My friend seemed dumbfounded by the audacity of this claim but I simply cited statistics in favor of this view. It was highly unlikely that we would see a bear market in 2021. Statistics Human nature has a tendency to overweight recent events in decision making so I do not fault the untrained observer for assuming a “double crash” was going to happen. The COVID crash was a once-per-decade crash of greater than -30%. Just because the “reason” was a global pandemic does not make it an outlier. Such an event was actually 2 years overdue post 2008. What that means is that statistically we should not see such a crash happen again for many years. Another statistic had to do with politics. 2021 would be a post-election year where the President and both houses of Congress were unified. When this has happened in history it was strongly bullish for the stock market. 2021 reminded me of the trading year of 2017. Both had price action up-and-to-the-right with statistically expected average of 3 -5% corrections through the year. That is what ended up happening. A statistic that was wrong in 2021 was the “January Barometer” which I posted about when the first month of the year closed negative. This is statistically bearish for the following year but in 2021’s case it fell outside the higher probability. Statistics are just probabilities. There are no guarantees but they are useful to filter out the useless unsubstantiated FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) that is published by the financial media on a daily basis. FUD I have been extremely critical of social media personalities that draw a huge following feeding into FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt). Early in the year I counseled someone against liquidating their portfolio based on the recommendations of a religious leader that forecasted total economic collapse. Opportunities to help guide people away from bad ideas such as that are the raison d'etre for my public speaking. That being said, now that we have had a record-breaking year, cyclicality favors 2022 having some significant event. Trading strategies and systems come and go. How people get used to trading the market changes. When traders do not adapt to new market conditions and continue trading in the same way they often give back all their gains and more. What I think is most likely is a strong beginning of the year. At some point the 50% chance of a -10% to -20% event will catch up to the market. From my gut feeling and experience (non statistical reasoning) I would speculate this event may occur in January/February or August/September. That event would kill the elated optimism which will trigger a range bound year. I think that 2022 will still close higher than 2021 but it will be less fun for trend traders. Meme/Theme Stocks I was able to catch wind of the “most shorted squeeze” as it was happening and profit from the calamity in January. I did not trade GME and AMC directly but saw another example of the adage “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain insolvent.” I coined my own interpretation of the WallStreetBets effect, “never underestimate profitzied autism.” During this period I tried hard to find ways to short the hype. Shorting shares was what got hedge funds into the mess. Buying Puts did not make money because IV was too inflated. I never centered on a strategy I liked to profit from the highly predictable crash. The money is made on the upside if you can engage your “risk on” behavior early enough. Every year has its meme. “Most shorted” was 2021’s meme and it came early. 2020 had EV stocks. In 2018 was “Blockchain.” Before that was marijuana stocks. Be aware of the themes and memes going on because there will be a lot of money to be made on the hype. 2022 will likely have its own theme. Try to identify it as early as possible. Unfortunately that means being aware of social media buzz and occasionally reading the highly emotional WallStreetBets. Just remember, “if you gaze into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.” Oil Back in April 2021 the price of Oil “went negative” in the futures market. At the time this trade seemed obvious. Oil is energy and nowhere in nature is energy free much less is one paid to take it. I had to be long. That’s not to say the trade was without doubt. I used USO as a vehicle to express this trade. During the chaos of the futures market going negative it was widely reported that USO as an ETF may collapse and stop trading. I remember for a week being inundated with negative news articles about how retail investors using it as a vehicle were stupid. My broker even called me prior to the reverse split to encourage me to close out my options before they would be converted to non-standard options. It was almost as if external forces were testing my resolve. I could take no other action but to hold my trade. It was one of my big wins of the year. It also taught me a lesson about holding conviction. I am bullish neutral on the price of oil for 2022. Oil is a forward looking commodity that is sensitive to economic speculation. If the economy is strong it needs more and more energy to run. The price of oil is pricing in a good future economy. Some efforts are being made by governments to go Green but we are not going to become a full zero-fossil fuel world economy in 2022 or 2023 so demand will continue to increase. The price now is well above breakeven for most of the world’s producers so supply will keep up. Real Estate Back in 2020 as I sat around a cookout with a group of lockdown defying friends many of them shared the desire to “finally pick up cheap houses.” Many people saw this economic event as the catalyst everyone had been waiting for since 2008 to buy houses at a discount. At the time I told them, “the fact that you are eager to buy houses means that there is demand. A true crash is definitely the lack of demand.” There was no crash and still has not been one. People are still waiting. People are still “short term renting.” There is still a lot of pent up demand. I expect any significant correction in real estate to be bought up by desperate home buyers that could have been waiting years to own their home. I am still seeking investment properties in 2022. I tried to pick up a Zillow held house recently but found despite their corporate losses and write downs they are still well capitalized enough to refuse low ball offers. The institutional money that has been investing in houses is well aware of historic real estate trends. If you can buy and service your debt long enough (even if it takes a decade) your real estate value will come back. It would behoove everyone hesitant to buy at “these prices” to remember this. Inflation, The Dollar, and The Fed I find it funny when people opine, “so much time has passed!” Time passing is literally one of the most predictable things in the universe. Inflation is another predictable thing. Inflation is a known known but the rate of it is a known unknown. I can understand people being afraid of hyperinflation but early in 2021 the thesis “The Dollar is going to zero” was and is extreme. It was more of a rallying cry to put dollars into cryptocurrency than a well founded investment thesis. If you want to see some ultra-modern hyperinflation, bring up a chart of USDTRY (the Turkish Lira) which lost half its value during the last quarter of 2021. That is a very bad modern example for a currency of a moderately developed country. To see how the dollar is actually faring look at the DXY (the Dollar Index) and you’ll see that in 2021 it hit a support and rose. What that tells me is despite all the fears of hyperinflation other countries around the world still value and want the Dollar and it has not broken into a hyperinflationary trend. A lot of traders are busy speculating what the Fed is going to do about bond purchases and interest rates. Many expect 2022 to be a year of tapering and rate hikes. Fundamentally I think these are good things. Like it in principle or not the Fed has the power to lift the economy with the tools at its disposal. The “easy money” time we are in right now has created a lot of wealth in asset prices (paper or realized) no matter if you own stocks, real estate, or crypto. Employment is so good that we are seeing what is called “The Great Resignation” of people quitting jobs they hate and service industry employers struggling to find workers. The Fed at some point has to scale back the tools so that they are available when we invariably hit another economic downturn. Otherwise the Fed would invent new tools as it did during the COVID crash since interest rates were low and it was already buying bonds. Not many people noticed the significance but what the Fed did then was entirely new. The Fed began buying corporate bond debt. By a derivative the Fed propped up the price of stocks by buying publicly traded company corporate bonds. What that signaled is a new mandate of the Fed to support the stock market. I don’t agree with it in principle but it is the new reality. One of my favorite memes of the last few years was the NPC saying “The market is RIGGED but the Fed!” to which he is asked, “So you’re long the market, right?” It’s a funny meme because it’s apt. Jerome Powell is not going to give me a personal call to tell me when and by how much he is changing policy. So I am not going to worry. If and when the Fed talks action I will expect the market to throw a fit in the short term and probably stop out some long trades that week but the overall trend of the stock market to continue. The Fed will act to prevent a major stock market crash. Let’s hope for our portfolio’s sake it works the next time. Gold and Silver On precious metals my theory is that despite all the awareness and concern about inflation the lack of performance on precious metals is due to a whole generation of younger investors being less keen on owning metal things and more keen on owning digital things. Ultimately gold and silver, like all assets, are worth what people are willing to pay. If people do not want an asset there is less demand. I would expect gold and silver to appreciate at just the rate of inflation over the next year. The next crash? Talking heads have been citing inflation as the catalyst for the next crash all year. The nature of crashes, Black Swans, is that they come from where no one is looking. That everyone is aware of and hedged against inflation and Fed policy makes it the least likely vector for a crash in my estimation. The nature of a crash is that panic comes out of some unexpected vector. "No one saw coming" the two formative crashes in my lifetime: 2008 and 2020. They came from major external world events that threatened the very economy we all live in and rely on. As a trader you just need to be constantly ready for what the market is telling you and react. There will be plenty of opportunities for trading on the way down and investing on the way back up. Volatility will explode and the stock market will become a playground for options traders. I should be more precise and say that a “correction” is more likely in 2022 which is defined as something between -10% and -20%. There likely will not be a “reason” except what the financial media generates as believable content ex post facto. Keep “dry powder” in your account, ignore the opinions of the media, and keep your emotions in check. Methods and Opportunities Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t. I will continue looking for themes throughout the year and technical setups every day. Opportunity can come at any time and from any market. I will continue to hone my technical analysis tools; Ichimoku, 50% Retracements, and Spikes and share what I find is valuable to the community. These have served me well and profitably in the past and I see no reason for the tendency of price action to cease respecting these methods. Not every trade will be a win but I will continue to improve my trade selection and share my experience on Tradingview and Discord for actionable opportunities. I encourage everyone to find methods that give them confidence in decision making and hone their skill through consistent application. I look forward to doing this letter again next year to see what I got wrong and what I got right :D TL;DR Everything will probably be OK in 2022. The SPY will close 2022 higher than 2021 but has a high probability of a -10% to -20% correction. Avoid being YOLO long at all points during the year and keep some dry powder ready. Cryptocurrency has entered the bearish phase of its cycle. 2022 may present trading opportunities but not yet optimal investment entries. I don’t really care what The Fed, whales, Michael Saylor, or Cathie Wood are doing. I am focused on my trading, finding opportunities, and helping other traders in 2022.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by norok
31
AUDJPY: BULLISH CHANNELING, POTENTIAL BUY OPPORTUNITY?Hello Enthusiast Forex Traders! Here's short-term outlook for AUDJPY, Please give us the thumbs up and support the channel by Smashing the FOLLOW button :) a) AUDJPY is moving above the exponential moving average 200 b) Breakout of bullish Channeling pattern could indicate a continuation of bullish trend c) MACD indicator has crossed above the zero level area, sign of potential stronger momentum going upward The roadmap will be invalid after exceeding the support/target level *DISCLAIMER: This isn't a recommendation to buy or sell forex pairs,only an Outlook from technical perspective.
Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
2