gold day trading gone for a sell this morning expecting bullish moves later
tp 1796-1790
killed it yesterday ill attach the gold posts
GOLD-SILVER
US 10-year yields to fall further?As the US 10-year yield has retested the 200-MA acting as a resistance, it is now highly likely to continue to move downward. Indeed, despite inflation fears, the current US deficits wouldn't allow significantly higher yields. Therefore, bonds holder are likely to get negative real yields for a long time. In such a setup, owning long-duration bonds seems to be quite risky, while precious metals should benefit from this situation.
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweet (Update 3)Hi guys,
After a well-deserved holiday, a week of acclimatising at home and adapting to current market dynamics, it's time to make some serious bucks from the market. First things first, I want to thank all my followers for following my trading adventure for over a year now.
Now onto the meat and potatoes. What is happening in the market? It seems the market is losing it and all correlations that have been in place for months (if not years) are thrown out of the window. Silver up/gold down and vice versa, dollar up/gold up, US10Y down/dollar up. Totally irrational behaviour and when this happens, you know shit is about to hit the fan. This should not surprise anyone, because everything looks like a big bubble that is about to burst. The housing market, commodity prices, equities and other asset classes are trading at extremely high levels which have not seen before.
Many respected analysts such as Jeremy Grantham (who has a proven trackrecord on bubble recognition) have voiced their deepest concerns about current market conditions and dynamics. With annualized monthly inflation running as high as 11%, real growth and the jobmarket not looking to improve, the stagflation ghost of the 1970-1980's is just around the corner. Stagflation is the magic word that will make gold propel to higher grounds and it is only since a week or two that analysts dare to pronounce the word in the respected media outlets.
But before we see strong bullish PA on gold, we still have some time to kill. FOMC is planned on Wednesday and this is a key risk event for the market and gold in particular. After the big sell-off of June, where gold tumled more than $150, Powell turned dovish in front of the Senate and reiterated that it is too soon to raise interest rates and start tapering. I do not expect Powell to turn away from the script or give a timeline next Wednesday on tapering, but I do expect we will see a $20-$30 sell-off towards $1780-$1785, providing gold bulls with a fresh new entry for $1900+.
August will be a hot summer month for precious metals in the lead-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium that is planned in the last week of August, and I am expecting NFP being the trigger for the bull rally. It is yet to be seen what will happen in Q4, but I am expecting some profit taking towards the yearly Christmas rally in December where I expect gold to make new all time highs in Q1 2022.
I can not repeat enough that current market conditions and dynamics are extremely bullish for gold and buying on dips is the way to go, don't get noised out by the small bearish candles you see. You do not want to be on the wrong side when gold starts another $200 bull rally. COT-report is bullish and large speculators are losing their shorts and adding buys for 4 weeks in a row.
Good luck and may the blue pips be on your side.
Love and hugs,
Cesaro
GOLD (XAUUSD) Two Scenarios For Next Week Explained 🥇
Hey traders,
Analyzing a price action on Gold I see two potential scenarios for next week.
Bearish
The price formed a head and shoulders pattern on 12h chart.
1790 - 1795 is its neckline.
In case if the price breaks that and closes below, bearish continuation will be expected.
Next support will be 1756
Bullish
Do not forget that the price is still trading in a local bullish trend .
For now, the price is trading above the last higher low level so technically speaking we are still bullish .
The price formed a falling wedge pattern on 4H chart.
In case of its bullish breakout,
bullish continuation will be expected to retest a current structure high.
Goal - 1831
Wait for the trigger and follow the market.
Are you bullish or bearish on Gold?
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Global Gold picture 🔥🚀What do we have on the gold chart? Let's look at the global picture!
Gold updated the high of 2011, then corrected and found support at 1677$.
It is now closed in the range of 1677$-1918$ and while the gold is in this range, we should just wait for a clean pattern to enter the position. In addition, we can see that the gold is now near the trend line, which also acts as strong support.
What to do and when to buy?
It is best to wait for the price to break out of this range. If the gold breaks the upper resistance level and tests it as support, it will be a good opportunity to buy with a target above the ATH.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
need to push through the purple line$DXY weekly deeper dive on momentum: we have a new rising channel since September last year. Bulls need to bust through purple strongly to negate a double top and FBO of the LONG descending channel from May 2018.
The June CPI, South Africa, And Another Trial In Precious MetalsGold was sitting around the $1825 on Friday, July 16. Silver was over $26, platinum was near the $1140 level, and palladium was around $2700 per ounce. All four of the precious metals that trade on the COMEX and NYMEX divisions of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have been trending higher over the past years. Gold and palladium reached all-time highs over the past year.
The June CPI comes in on fire
The inflation data is not a validation of “transitory”
Passing a bullish baton from one sector to the next
South Africa is on fire- Precious metals supplies could decline- Another trial begins this week
The next leg up for gold, silver, platinum, palladium and other PGMs could be on the horizon
Precious metals tend to rise in inflationary environments as the economic condition erodes money’s purchasing power. The tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus has increased the money supply exponentially over the past year. Rising money supply weighs on fiat currency values. While all four of the precious metals are below their highs for 2021 and over the past years, the path of least resistance for prices on a long-term basis remains higher.
When it comes to gold, every substantial price dip has been a buying opportunity over the past two decades. The current environment suggests that it will continue. Moreover, the recent events in South Africa, a leading gold and platinum group metals producer, could put additional upward pressure on prices.
The June CPI comes in on fire
The June Consumer Price Index rose for the third consecutive month posting a 5.4% increase in June. Excluding food and energy, it was 4.5% higher, the most substantial gain since September 1991. While the Fed and other analysts blamed one-third of the rise on used car and truck prices, any consumer knows prices are rapidly rising. The Fed continues to view the data as “transitory.”
The market’s reaction continues to be another indication that the central bank will roll out plans to taper quantitative easing and schedule liftoff from the zero percent short-term Fed Funds rate. However, one factor may make any move by the central bank moot.
The inflation data is not a validation of “transitory”
The Fed Chairman and the Secretary of the Treasury believe that inflationary pressures are “transitory,” blaming the data on pandemic-inspired bottlenecks in the supply chain. However, with Congress discussing another $3.5 trillion in spending, even if the Fed tightens credit, the government’s stimulus tsunami continues to flood the financial system.
The CPI data and rising retail prices are the price tag for the stimulus and tidal wave of central bank liquidity that began over one year ago.
Passing a bullish baton from one sector to the next
We have seen inflationary pressures rise in markets across all asset classes. The economic condition erodes money’s purchasing power. The stock market has risen to all-time highs. We witnessed parabolic moves in cryptocurrencies earlier this year. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other cryptos halved in value from the April and May highs, they remain far higher than at the end of 2020 and many times the price levels at the 2020 lows. In commodities, gold rose to a record high in August 2020. While the yellow metal corrected, it continues to consolidate at above the $1800 per ounce level at the end of last week. Silver rose to its highest level since 2013 when it probed above the $30 level in February before correcting. Platinum rose to its highest price since 2014 before moving lower. In May, palladium, along with lumber and copper, reached all-time highs. Rhodium, a platinum group metal that only trades in the physical market, reached almost $30,000 per ounce this year.
Grain prices rose to eight-year highs earlier this year. Sugar and coffee reached multi-year peaks. The latest sector to move to the highest level in years was energy as the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures contract traded at $76.98 per barrel on July 6, the highest price since 2014. Natural gas moved to $3.822 per MMBtu on July 6, the highest price since late 2018, with ethanol at an over seven-year high and coal prices at the highest price in a decade.
The raw materials asset class has been passing the bullish baton from sector to sector in an inflationary relay race over the past year. Bull markets rarely move in a straight line, but the trends remain bullish, reflecting the rising inflationary pressures.
South Africa is on fire- Precious metals supplies could decline- Another trial begins this week
After another attempt at a rally, precious metals sold off at the end of last week. The prospects for higher interest rates push the US dollar higher, which tends to be bearish for the precious metals. However, gold remained above $1800 per ounce, silver is over the $25.50 level, platinum was at $1100, palladium was around $2.640, and rhodium was at a midpoint of $19,100.
At the March 2020 lows, gold found a bottom at $1450.90, silver fell to $11.74, platinum reached $562, and palladium fell to $1449.90 per ounce. Rhodium declined to $2000 per ounce.
South Africa remains a leading producer of platinum group metals. 72% of annual platinum supplies come from South Africa, along with 36% of palladium, 82% of rhodium, 81% of ruthenium, and 87% of iridium. Ruthenium and iridium are other platinum group metals that trade in the physical market. While South African gold production has declined over the past year, the country still produced around 99.2 metric tons of gold in 2020.
South Africa is currently facing the worst political violence since apartheid ended 27 years ago. Violent riots and looting in the aftermath of the jailing of former President Jacob Zuma are gripping the country. Persistent poverty and the global pandemic’s toll have only exacerbated political violence and upheaval. As South Africa faces the potential for a civil war, precious metals production could suffer over the coming months and perhaps years, creating the PGM shortages and limiting gold output from the mineral-rich nation.
Meanwhile, the greener path for energy policy only supports the demand for platinum group metals. As supplies from South Africa may decline, the demand will continue to grow, putting upward pressure on prices. Rising inflation and the South African political landscape support all precious metals prices.
Meanwhile, this week, two traders accused of felony-level crimes in the precious metal markets go on trial in Chicago. Federal District Court Judge John Z. Lee will preside over the trial of John Pacillo and Edward Bases. The pair last traded for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Mr. Bases had traded precious metals for Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch since the 1990s, while Mr. Pacillo has an equally long resume. A jury at the most recent Chicago trials of two Deutsche Bank traders, John Vorley and Cedric Chanu, returned guilty verdicts. Both were sentenced to one year in prison. Bases and Pacillo pleaded not guilty to the charges. A jury of their peers will decide their fate this week. More traders, including three from JP Morgan Chase, await their days in court.
While the trials and sentences will not impact precious metals prices, trader’s behavior will change as a prison cell, and lifelong branding as a felon is a far cry from the comforts of a trading room. I ran one of the leading precious metals dealing desks in the 1980s and 1990s and know some of those charged, including Mr. Bases. I will save any comments for after the accused have their days in court.
The next leg up for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and other PGMs could be on the horizon
Platinum group metals suffer from illiquidity on the futures exchange. The lack of visible stockpiles and the supply versus demand equations in the PGMs does not allow for robust futures or forward markets. Less liquid commodities tend to experience far higher volatility levels. Lumber is one of the least liquid futures markets. The price of wood from the $251.50 level in April 2020 to $1711.20 one year later in May 2021. At the end of last week, the price was below $550. Traders call markets like lumber roach motels as market participants can get into long or short risk positions but getting out when the market moves in the opposite directions can be more than a challenge. Platinum and palladium futures quality as roach motels.
Meanwhile, increasing demand for PGMs because of the rise of environmentally friendly energy policy supports their prices. The upheaval in South Africa may only exacerbate upside price action if supplies decline. When it comes to gold, every dip over the past two decades has been a buying opportunity.
The quarterly chart highlights the bullish price action in gold and the pattern of higher lows and higher highs that began in 1999 at $252.50 per ounce. Gold may have corrected from the August 2020 $2063 high, but the price action remains in bullish mode from a long-term perspective.
Silver is a highly speculative metal that attracts herd behavior when the price begins to trend. In 2020, silver traded in an $18.175 range from low to high. So far in 2021, the trading band has been only $6.61, with silver making a marginally higher high and higher low. When precious metals embark on the next leg to the upside, silver is likely to have a magnetic pull for a herd of buyers.
Rising inflation and the political landscape in South Africa are bullish for precious metals. While the US Federal Reserve may pivot to a more hawkish monetary policy stance, government stimulus shows no sign of slowing. It may only be a matter of time before the precious metals sector takes the bullish baton in the inflationary relay race that has been underway since the 2020 bottoms.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
GOLD (XAUUSD) is Within a HUGE DEMAND ZONE!!! Your Plan: 🥇
Hey traders,
Gold is retesting a recently broke major supply cluster.
With a structure swap, it turned into a demand zone.
On Monday pay close attention to 4h/1h intraday price action.
I will look for a confirmation (reversal pattern formation within the zone) to buy the market.
My goals will be: 1832/1844
In case of a bearish violation of the zone, though, the setup will be invalid.
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10 Year yield directionIf the 10 Year doesn't hold this technical support then expect it to go a lot lower.
Inflation Is Real and Commodities Are Showing ThisInflation fears are getting real yet there appears to be no sign of the money printing ending as a +3 trillion dollar budget agreement has been reached this week in the US, and the unbelievable rally in commodities since March of 2020 is a manifestation of this.
Its been higher higher after higher high and it appears to be attempting to put in another lower high after consecutive lower highs the last 16 months as well.
Should the upward sloping green trend line serve as support once more, look for a retest of the PDBC's all time high at roughly 2% from where we are currently to the upside.
If the ETF can find support above that level, a 10% move to the top of the channel could be instore.
If the trend breaks, look for support at $19.35. Ultimately, the bears would want to see this thing break out below $18.91 to confirm a bearish reversal of commodities.. a feat that appears to be a tall task given the current state of affairs with the macros.
Vox Royalty - GDX,FNV,RGLD & WPMComparing 3 large precious metals royalty companies and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners UCITS ETF (GDX), shows how the Gold miners and large-cap royalty firms have a similar relationship within the market.
Recently the price action in Vox Royalty has started to find that it too can benefit from a rising market and good news flow. In the past VOX Royalty has been a more volatile ride but steady progress towards their goal of building a portfolio and bringing value to their shareholders.
A few months ago news of Letters of Intent and Public Offerings was announced. The raising of capital was to purchase royalties and assuming completion of the transactions under LOI and a midpoint of 25 royalties acquired, the Company’s portfolio will consist of seven producing assets (an increase of 75% compared to its four producing or construction-stage assets in 2020). In addition, six of the royalty assets subject to LOIs are currently in a development stage and the remaining 16 royalty assets are in the exploration stage (based on an assumed acquisition of 25 royalties). Assuming 25 of the royalties under LOI are purchased, the Company projects that the underlying royalties are expected to generate between C$3 million and C$7 million of incremental revenue in 2023.
GOLD head and shoulders pattern if you follow me your know i had sell limits friday 1808-1812 , we saw 1813 then shot down to 1808
im still in this sell if price action plays out we could break back bellow 1800 test 1750 maybe even go bellow
ive had a bias that it'll go bellow 1750 since we saw that price a couple of weeks back
give me a follow for gold day trading ideas check out last weeks we killed it ill attach some to this post 🔥
trade what you see i could be wrong
if you have any thoughts on gold please comment your ideas
THE GOLDEN PLACE TO BUY THE GOLD - TA TREND Hello trading friends,
I hope you have a great time, this is an update for GOLD with a Trend study for buying GOLD.
We expecting depending on the last data if Gold breaks above 1834+ include confirmtion line this would be a great option to enter a new uptrend into gold.
After we hit this target of 1834, we should have good risk management and SL below the trend in case the trend return back.
This update will start only from the target 1834+ before this trend there is no trade ON for uptrend.
If you like the content give it a like and follow for more updates.
Thank you
Our goal to hold or increase our ratio 78% of winning trades.
Have good times, and nice coffee time!
PALLADIUM - Wait For The Trigger!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
PA1! is sitting around the round number 2900 so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
on M30: PA1! formed a valid trendline in red but it is not ready to go yet.
Before we sell, we want the sellers to prove that they are taking over again.
You don't want to sell a bullish market right?
Trigger => Waiting for a momentum candle close below the last swing low (in gray) to sell.
Until the sell is activated, PA1! would be overall bullish and can still trade higher till the 3000
and of course, as it approaches the lower green support 2500, we will be looking for trend-following buy setups.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
just an ideafind it interesting, this is the sum of all commodities divided by the money supply.
probably doesn't mean anything, anyway interesting.
Looking at the parabolic route of m2 and the commodities basket divided by it didn't move as expected because of it's rally the rally. lot's of money still in the markets.
give me your perspective and ideas
GOLD/SILVER ratio. Is Gold about to outperform Silver again?The Gold/ Silver ratio seems to be trading inside a Channel Up since the 2008/2009 subprime mortgage crisis. The recent COVID crisis and sell-off in March 2020 served as an excellent catalyst for the pair to make a Higher High within the Channel. In February it appears that the new Higher Low was priced and looking at the CCI, we have a similar bottom sequence as in early 2011.
On the short-term I see a quick jump if the 1W MA50 breaks (blue trend-line) towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). On the (very) long-term I appears that the ratio will again enter a decade long steady rise to a new Higher High until the next crisis/ catalyst, so we can expect Gold (XAUUSD) to start outperforming Silver (XAGUSD).
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MMTC - Mid and Long Term ProjectionPure Price Action . Entry after 71.15 . Fundamentally strong company with poor records as of Corona . Technically bullish if breakout happens .
Technical analysis update: FMV (23rd June 2021)FMV has been trading within rectangle pattern for some time now. Currently, FMV has neutral trend and it oscillates between its support at 12.34 EUR and its resistance at 15.445 EUR. Neutral trend is reflected in low ADX value. Stochastics and MACD are bearish. However, RSI shows first signs of reversing to the upside. We think that mining stocks within precious metals sector are currently very cheap and attractive. We expect FMV to rise above its resistance and continue up as it coincides with our bullish forecast for gold. Because of that we would like to set medium term price target for FMV to 15.50 EUR.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Tweets on Charts - VOX stoch divergenceJust adding a new chart to show how Twitter and Tradingview are now working well together
GOLD Going bullish after reached confluence levelsGOLD Going bullish after reached confluence levels.
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Nickel short tradeThanks for viewing,
I am not sure how widespread interest in Nickel is, my interest in Nickel is;
- It is a valuable metal that is in demand as the world turns towards electrification (Nickel currently has a low proportion of its demand ~3% from batteries and ~70% from steel-making but EVS. Vehicle manufacturers are turning towards much higher proportion of vehicles being EVS and battery manufacturers are turning to higher efficiency batteries with a higher proportion of nickel,
- There are therefore, strong fundamental reasons to expect strong long-term demand,
- It is possible to buy large volume physical metal and store it in secure locations (you can even take out a low interest loan on a %age of the market value of the metal collateral) like silverbullion.com.sg.
- I would like to add physical Nickel into my "all weather portfolio" (so that commodity positions comprise 7.5% of the portfolio - a la Ray Dalio) I am looking for an entry point to buy.
If you trade, I put my entry point on a break below the swing low for a 1:1 extension of the previous drop. If my view is correct this would allow wave (B) to complete without making a lower low (than was set in Feb 2016). This would set the scene for a new bull move towards all-time highs. That short trade (stop placed arbitrarily above nearby resistance) could net -27% closing out at $180.93. Actually, I may look into a platform that offers a short contract. If the Feb 2016 low is exceeded, my bullish scenario is off the table.
Reasons for a bearish view:
- MACD histogram strong down trend,
- MACD moving averages looking like crossing over to the downside,
- If a wave (B) unfolds to an expected 1:1 extension that will mean an 44% price decline,
- Lower buy volume for Iron ore over the past 18 months and signs of exhaustion in the Iron Ore rally - and as so much of nickel demand is from steel-making this would also drag down Nickel,
- Nagging suspicions about a generalised property bubble that is in the process of deflating in the west (commercial property down 20-30% in the US in 2020) if it gets underway (massive manipulation will be required to stop the implosion of a huge speculative bubble in residential and commercial property) in China - there could be a huge reduction in steel demand for construction.
At the moment I'm not trading, but looking to enter long around the $180 (below $8000/ton) mark. At the moment silverbullion.com.sg is offering just under 4% over spot and similar buy-sell spread. Storage fee are around 1.5% per year at current prices (more as a % basis for smaller 250kg / 550lb amounts). They have 2000kg bags of 99.8% pure Nickel at USD14,986/ton. I would be looking to enter below USD8000/ton and am hoping for a ~40% price drop overall before the next bull market. Of course, I could be wrong, or right but too early, or I may miss the buy-zone for some reason (like lack of funds) even if it unfolds exactly as I have charted it.
I am not an affiliate and the link posted isn't an affiliate link. It is just something I discovered in my search for gold and silver bullion non-bank vaults. If anyone knows of a better offering elsewhere - please let me know (I am also interested in low premium / spread bulk copper - not small ingots or coins).
Lately, I have been finding Elliot Wave principles very helpful in determining entry-points into commodity, gold and silver, and equity positions. When pessimism prevails people and organisations sell or get liquidated and the bottom normally isn't right at the point that fundamental factors switch from 'sell' to 'buy'. I find EW is helpful for setting entry and exit points - especially in lieu of more concrete information.
Protect those funds
