GOLD is going to start getting much cheaper in SILVER terms.Gold has been on an absolute tear lately as the de facto U.S. corporate government has been printing and spending FRNs (Federal Reserve Notes) into oblivion. As a result, real money is gaining value against the Federal Reserve's monopoly money. Naturally, those who saw the money devaluation coming have been buying gold to preserve their purchasing power, but silver has been lagging behind, even though it has also been appreciating. Although the price of precious metals is, and will continue to be, on the rise, the price of gold is about to get much cheaper in terms of silver. Instead of buying gold, I believe the best move right now is to buy silver, hold it, and once the exchange rate drops to the 35/45 to 1 area, then exchange your silver for gold.
I believe that in the next year to a year and a half, we will see the price of gold cut in half in silver terms, which means it will take half the silver to buy the same amount of gold, effectively doubling the purchasing power of silver versus gold.
Good luck!
GOLD-SILVER
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Sept 10 : Consolidation CarryoverToday will likely be similar to yesterday - but slightly more consolidated overall.
I belive the markets are struggling into a dual Excess Phase Peak Flag (Step #2) and the SPY/QQQ show this very clearly.
This dual Excess Phase Peak pattern will result in either a breakdown in price (starting after Sept 20th or so) or a continued rally phase breaching the Unique & Ultimate Fibonacci High price levels.
Ultimately, I believe the breakdown potential is higher at this point than the continued rally phase. That is why I'm asking traders to prepare for a top near Sept 20-25 and to move assets into CASH as we melt upward over the next 5+ days.
If my research is correct, the second Excess Phase Peak pattern will prompt a breakdown in price - resulting in an attempt to find support above recent (60-90 day) lows. And that will reflect a -9-14% drawdown in price.
If I'm wrong and we don't see this breakdown in price, then we'll see price struggle to move higher and eventually break the recent ATH levels.
Watch this video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak patterns setup.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for Sept 9 : GapUp-Higher Counter TrendPay special attention to this video and prepare for what I believe will be a type of Flash-Crash event starting near Sept 20-24.
Now is the time to start moving more capital into CASH. Prepare for this potential downside price move of -9-14% by protecting your capital.
Yes. There will be bigger opportunities near the bottom of this moderate Flash-crash event.
No, you don't want to watch your assets fall 10-15% over the next 60 days.
The solution is to move into a more protective allocation mode (70~80% CASH) over the next 5 to 7 days and then ride it out.
Remember, I'm here to try to help you become a better trader. I tell you want I see and I live or die by my output.
I'm not always 100% accurate. But I do believe the markets are going to move into a type fo Flash-Crash event over the next 45+ days and I believe the best way to prepare for this event is to load up on dry powder, trade smaller amounts for now, then look for opportunities near the bottom.
Get some.
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XAUUSD potential Buy trade after the breakout of the channelXAUUSD has bounced off a support level and reached the key price level of 2500. On the daily timeframe, two long-tailed bars have formed, indicating a strong double rejection of the support. If upcoming news does not negatively impact gold, the market could be positioned to test its all-time highs. On the 1H chart, the price action has broken and closed above the downward channel, suggesting that the recent movement was a pullback and signalling a possible end to it. The market may retest the swap zone before pushing to higher levels. The target is the resistance at 2527
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 9-13th: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 9 - 13th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Gold possible up correctionXAUUSD continues its downward movement, closing below the 2500 level and confirming a break out of the consolidation zone. With this momentum, the market is likely to head to lower levels. Although the major trend remains bullish, this correction might find support around the 2450 level. If the market retests this area and shows rejection signs, like a bullish long-tailed bar, it could offer a good buying opportunity. A strong rebound from the 2450 support could pave the way for a continuation of the bullish trend toward the all-time highs. The target is the resistance zone at 2505
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-4 : CRUSH Blends Into Rev-RallyYesterday's price move was clearly a CRUSH pattern I expected on Monday. Because of the holiday trading schedule this week, I believe the CRUSH pattern blended into Tuesday's trading - resulting in today's pattern being a blend of the Rev-Rally pattern on Tuesday and the Up-Down-Up pattern for Wednesday.
Overall, I believe the CRUSH pattern removed a lot of downward price pressure and set the markets up for a bigger upward move starting on September 9-11.
At this point, I believe the US markets will attempt to find a base/support and transition into the end of this week by "looking for support—then rallying away from support."
So, I expect the US markets to find a critical support level today or tomorrow, then begin to form a base and rally away from that support level.
Let's play what is in front of us on the charts and Get Some.
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SILVER'S TIME to TAKE BREATHER Fundamentals:
Bricks buying and geopolitical tensions have kept Gold price elevated pulling up the silver price with it. I believe the Bricks meeting this Sept to be a selling event given that all of the purchase goals (for now) will be met by the meeting. Gold is the stronger of the two metals. I am leaning short Gold but I think silver has more downside potential given recessionary woes (industrial applications).
Seasonal and Election: Looking back Sept-Oct are typically down months for metals.
Technicals: The price is now up against heavy supply zone and major $30 psychological level.
There is a head and shoulders pattern (4r) forming inside of a much larger head and shoulders pattern (2day) (See previous post). At the moment the price has failed to pop back up above the 4hr MA. It may recover. However, I will be selling into strength inside of the the supply zone with a stop on a 2day close above the $30.50 level.
Fed Thoughts: The market has all but priced in a rate cut at this point. Every movement this year has been predicated on them (despite never materializing). I am of the belief that the cut itself will be a selling event regardless of whether or not we get a short lived rally.
Expression: Given that I am skeptical on equities and bearish Silver I will be shorting SILJ given that it has a history of outperforming to the downside on Silver draw downs. In addition, the upside/risk is limited (as much as it can be haha). Major funds are not investing in juniors. They have and will put capital into majors like GOLD and NEM if metals continue to push higher. In addition, miners are not experiencing the upward pressure that Gold and Silver have because central banks and foreign buyers (the reason for the rally in metals) are NOT buying miners, they are buying physical metal. PAAS is also a strong short candidate. It is a basket case (major earnings miss) and will outperform to the downside.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-30 : Carryover In Counter TrendToday's SPY Cycle Pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to trend moderately strongly to the upside (if my research is correct).
The counter-trend mode of the carryover pattern suggests the price trend will be opposite of the last 2-3 bars - so a potential upward price trend today.
The carryover pattern suggests that price will behave very similarly to what we've seen over the past 2-3 days—moderately trending.
So, I expect the SPY to attempt to rally the 563-564 level and hold above recent lows.
The QQQ should be similar—attempting to break away from the downward price channel, then consolidating into early/mid-next week before attempting to move higher again.
Gold is within my breakout range (over the next 2~5 days), and I believe the 2564 level needs to be broken (upward) for the 2593 level to become the next target. We are still seeing active support near 2511.
Bitcoin should move back to the upside, trying to target the $62.8k level over the next 5+ days. The Flag formation in BTCUSD is holding up well.
Happy Friday everyone.
Let's make today a great day and prepare for next week.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-29 - Breakaway in Carryover ModeToday's pattern should play out as a reversion to yesterday's selling pressure.
I did not expect to see the markets sell downward as hard as they did yesterday, but my systems were able to catch the downward trend well.
As a trader and a researcher, I try to base my expectations on what I believe to be the highest probable outcome. Yet, sometimes I'm wrong.
I've mentioned this before, and I'll probably say it again and again...
Traders must be capable of adapting to the charts. Play what is in front of you. My SPY Cycle Patterns offer assistance in what may happen based on Fibonacci/Gann price characteristics. Yet, news items (or positioning ahead of NVDA earnings) can drive market trends in unique directions.
We must understand that big news events/earnings/data can alter price trends away from the SPY Cycle Pattern triggers, and we have to be able to play the chart in front of us.
So we adapt to what the chart is telling us - always.
Remember, Fibonacci Price Theory was very clear yesterday after the first breakdown in price - this trend is BEARISH.
Watch this video. Gold is getting ready to make a move up to 2593+ and Silver wants to follow up to about $31. But Silver will lag Gold a bit - so position yourself correctly.
Bitcoin will stay range-bound over the next 5-7+ trading days - trying to run out time on the Flag Apex. Then, it should make a bigger move to the upside.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST AUG 26 - 30th: S&P NASDAQ GOLD SILVER OILThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast AUG 26-30th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Gold Wash-out Low after Flag Apex. Need To See $2540+ On Close.Watch this video if you are trading gold. With a perfect Flag formation and a deep washout-low rotation, we need to see Gold rally back up to near $2540 to reach the Apex level again.
Any continued price weakness will show Gold may be attempting a deeper pullback after reaching $2570.
I believe Gold will settle very well into the end of the day. Possibly even reaching $2550+.
But, this is news-driven. This move is related to the geopolitical events taking place in Taiwan and other areas of the world.
Buckle up. Gold wants to move above $2602 - but it will be a struggle from now on.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-19 : Gap Potential (Consolidation)This short video shows you why I believe the US markets will move into a consolidation phase over the next 5-7 days. This phase will likely represent moderate volatility with a Bozu Trending bar on Tuesday (8-20).
That Bozu Trending bar may be very explosive in price range.
Sit back, wait for the lows to setup over the next 5+ days and position your trades for the bigger Vortex rally phase setting up in about 7+ days.
If my research is correct, by 8-26 or so, we should be moving back into the Vortex Rally phase again.
Gold, Bitcoin, Silver, SPY, QQQ and others will likely consolidate this week unless there is big news.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold Ripper Rally Set For 8-16 into 8-20 Targeting $2575-$2650Have you been following my research on GOLD?
This next move will likely be a very strong Ripper-Rally where Gold will break through the dual Flag Apex and move dramatically higher over the next 5-10+ days.
I will let this video tell you all you need to know.
Remember, watch my Gold Dual-Leg Rally video too.
I wonder what the "driver" of this rally in Gold will be?
US-Dollar?
Foreign Markets?
Some political or geo-political news?
Something will send Gold upward $75-$100+ over the next 5+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-14 : Today Is A RALLY DayToday is a RALLY day on my SPY Cycle Patterns.
After the recent base/bottom in the SPY and the subsequent reversion to the upside - I expect today's rally to be somewhat muted in size. I'm not expecting a large range rally bar to form today - although it could happen.
The reason I'm not expecting a huge rally bar today is because we've already seen a very strong upward price move - particularly yesterday's Breakaway pattern.
I see the markets right now: they've already moved substantially higher (more than 61% of the recent downtrend) and are likely to stall out a bit before attempting to move higher.
Price never moves in a straight upward or downward trend. There are always pauses, pullbacks, or countertrends along the broader price trend, and traders need to expect them as the broader trend plays out.
Today, I'm expecting the price to attempt to melt upward but, at the same time, reflect a "pause" in the rally phase—essentially, slow down the rally phase a bit.
I do believe the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) may offer traders a great opportunity. The undervalued sectors have been weaker than the main US Indexes. The Russell may trend broadly higher today in an attempt to play "catch-up" with the other indexes.
Gold may be making another big move higher - possibly starting the second leg upward.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST AUG 12-16th: USD INDICES GOLD SILVER OILThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast AUG 12-16th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
BTCUSD Will Rally In Multi-Leg Phase Targeting $104kMy longer-term research suggests BTCUSD will rally through multiple trending-flagging stages and attempt to reach the $104 area before the end of 2025.
My broader market research suggests a unique underlying market phenomenon is taking place, and a Vortex Rally will initiate throughout the end of 2024.
This Vortex Rally phase is a "decoupling" event between the US economy and other global economies. It will most likely be seen in Asian economies.
Because of this, I believe hedge assets will see a fantastic benefit over the next 16 to 48 months. Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin will all increase over the next 16+ months as global traders attempt to hedge against this Vortex Rally and weaker currency rates.
Of course, this move in Bitcoin will happen in stages (phases or legs). The price does not go straight up. It always moves through trending/flagging phases.
Get ready. Defending this $57k level is critical for the next move up to $70.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
GOLD Plan Your Trade For 8-7 : Huge Dual-Leg Rally Setup $2550+Gold is setting up a unique dual-leg rally phase, and traders need to be aware of this before the move is complete.
The recent panic setoff by the BOJ unsettled the markets - including Gold.
The Yen Carry-trade unwound over the past 5+ days - resulting in a very consolidated downward price trend in Gold.
I believe Gold is about to make two very big moves to the upside.
The first move will be quick. Probably lasting only 2 or 3 days.
The second move may be a bit longer, but it has the ability to rally well above $2550 as Gold reverts higher.
Please pay attention to this video if you follow Gold. Gold as a hedge is one thing. This move is related to the reversion pressure and the protection of currency devaluation after the past 3+ weeks of global decoupling.
I believe this next rally in gold will be explosive (min upside target $2550 or higher).
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Developing Success With PineScript : Building Trigger MechanismsIn my ongoing quest to build better tools for traders, I continue to develop new quantitative trigger logic to improve the working versions I have already created.
Trigger logic is complicated for most people because they fail to take the time to "focus on failure."
Everyone builds trading systems focused on where the triggers work perfectly (trust me - I've seen/built a few hundred of them).
But the most important thing to focus on is where it fails to generate a decent trigger and how you are going to filter it out or protect capital when that failed trigger hits.
In this example, I highlight my new "Gun-Slinger" triggers and how my continued development is creating more advanced trading tools for skilled traders.
I hope you enjoy it.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-5 : The Shot Across The Bow.Watch this video.
I'm going to try to keep this short and sweet.
I've gotten a lot of comments about how my SPY Cycle Patterns have NOT been working out over the past 10+ days and I want to address that.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are built on Gann & Fibonacci price structures/patterns. They reflect "Normal market psychology" and attempt to provide a guide as to what to expect within normal market rotation/trends.
Nothing has been "normal" over the past 3+ weeks.
It all started when Biden dropped out of the race for POTUS. Then, the real shot across the bow was the Bank Of Japan warning the rest of the world "hey, you may need to start aggressively defending your currencies against devaluation risks".
If you really understand what that means, you'll understand the panic process that is playing out right now.
But, I urge all of you to think about "what changed over the past 3 weeks". That is the question I keep asking myself.
What changed is uncertainty (the Kamala-Crush) and the BOJ signaling foreign markets to prepare to defend the value of your currency against the US-Dollar.
And I believe the panic-mode will subside very quickly as global asset prices drop. Falling prices mean stocks move into undervalued price territory. That also means smart traders BUY INTO this weakness for the longer-term ROI potential.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
GOLD Plan Your Trade 7-31 - Gold Reaches Upper Flag ChannelPrepare for Gold to move into a consolidation phase lasting 5 to 10 days before moving higher again.
The next upper target area is $2560++.
Watch this video and consider what I see as a structural Flag formation.
Gold will continue to attempt to move higher - but it will do so in structural price waves.
If you are holding any open long positions, be prepared to protect those positions as I see Gold flagging sideways (attempting to contract downward) in about 2~3 days.
The current upward price move appears to be over.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
A Recession Is Coming - Brace for Impact First things first
What is a Recession?
A recession is a period when the economy isn't doing well. It means businesses are selling less, people are losing jobs or not getting raises, and overall, there's less money being spent. It's like a slowdown in the economy where things are not growing, and sometimes they shrink. This period of economic decline usually lasts for a few months or longer. Usually, when we have two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) we say that we are in a recession.
Now, let's look at previous recessions to see if we can find some patterns that help us predict the coming one. 😊
This is how you can navigate through the chart:
- past recessions are highlighted with orange colored boxes based on the data from "FRED economic data".
- The purple line chart shows the US inflation rate.
- The US GDP is shown in a green step-line chart.
- The US interest rate is shown with an orange line.
- The Yellow line chart shows the unemployment rate in the US.
- The most important line chart here is the blue one that shows the spread between the 10-year bond yield and the 3-month bond yield (Yes we could also use 2-year instead of 3-month).
This blue line, the yield curve, is important to us because it's a reliable indicator that almost every time gave us a heads up for a recession (if you were looking at it of course 😁). When it falls below zero, we call it the inverted yield curve and we hit a recession almost every time it gets back up after spending some time below zero.
An inverted yield curve tells us that the market participants are concerned about future economic growth It can lead to tighter financial conditions, reduced lending, and lower consumer and business spending, which can contribute to a downturn in the economy.
With that said, take a look at the chart and you can easily spot the repetitive pattern of interest rate hikes/cuts, unemployment rate, and the inverted yield curve just before each recession.
With the strong possibility of having the first rate cut in September, and the patterns you see on the chart, can you say that we are going to have a hard landing and a recession? I would say yes.
If you say we are not going into a recession and your counter argument is backed by a low unemployment rate and a positive GDP and a declining inflation rate, this chart does not support the idea.
I know there are other factors that might support the soft landing scenario, and I would like to have your point of view on this. So, please share your thoughts in comments section if you are reading this post through Tradingview. 😊
For further research, you can pull up the charts of indices like S&P500 or commodities of your choice to see how they moved during each recession. This will help you find some patterns that might assist you in your future investments.
Gold/Silver/Metals Cycle Patterns - Rally - Rally - RallyThis short update highlights what I call the "Kamala Shakeout" - which is uncertainty and fear driving market trends over the past 48+ hours.
Be prepared for a sudden and aggressive move to the inside in metals as uncertainty fades.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
