XAUUSD Potential push for 2600This week, XAUUSD surged to an all-time high, driven by expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. The price jumped over 3%, marking its strongest weekly gain since August. Inflation concerns and global uncertainty have fueled speculation that the Fed may cut rates to stimulate the economy. Now, the market is in a new range between 2550 and 2600.
Next week’s key event is the Fed's decision, with high-impact news expected, especially Wednesday. The market could consolidate, forming a continuation pattern, though Monday may start with a short-term pullback due to a 1-2-3 price movement, typically signaling a correction.
Despite this potential pullback, the overall outlook remains bullish. A rate cut could drive prices toward 2600 or higher, supported by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty
GOLD-SILVER
What To Expect After The Fed rate Cut: 9-18-2024 (Fed Day)This video is really designed to teach you some basics about Fibonacci Price Theory (FPT) Analysis. I wanted to show you how I see the charts using FPT and why, sometimes, I might be seeing things differently than you do on the charts.
In my world, there are simple constructs that are evident on every chart. Supply & Demand zones, trending/flagging, and most importantly Fibonacci Price Theory constructs.
Fibonacci Price Theory is the basis of all my analysis. It is the ground-level structure I look for in price on all charts. Then, I move to more advanced indicators and other analysis types to develop a Success/Failure outcome (trend/trade expectation).
What I do is not hard to understand - it just takes practice.
Fibonacci & Gann techniques are infinitely adaptable to any type of price action. I use another technique I call the Tesla Price Amplitude Arcs which often help me identify where/when price events may happen - but that is for another video (maybe).
Ultimately, it comes down to understanding the structure and intent of price action (either success or failure) and how to position your trades for that success or failure of any price event.
There are really two types of traders: trend traders and counter-trend traders.
Trend traders try to catch the explosive price moves as trend events.
Counter-trend traders try to catch major reversal levels in price and try to profit from counter-trend price moves (reversals/reversions).
Using FPT, you can learn to execute both type of trading styles and improve your ability to see the market trends/setups more clearly.
I hope this video helps you learn to become a better trader and helps you understand my Plan Your Trade videos more clearly. At least you'll be able to understand how I see charts and what drives much of my thinking related to chart.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-18 : Gap Potential & Fed DayThis video pretty much covers everything I've been telling all of you over the past 5+ days.
Yes, I'm planning on waiting out the consolidation/early trading today and waiting through the Fed decision. There is no reason to jump in front of a moving train attempting to change its direction or speed. You just get run over and beat up.
So, I'm going to take a break this morning, watching the markets and waiting for the Fed rate decision.
While I did look at some data points this morning, the one thing that caught my attention was the Mortgage Refinance Index. That index has jumped more than 45% over the past 12-16+ months while mortgage rates are still above 6%.
I believe this is an indication that ARM borrowers are under some pressure now (after roughly 36 months) to refinance and are dealing with higher rates. 2024-3 = 2021.
Those hot to buy anything after the COVID pandemic may have signed into ARM loans with a 3-year rate guarantee - which may now be rolling into fully adjustable rate loans. That would push the refinance index higher as these homeowners attempt to wiggle their way into something more realistic than the 6.5 to 7.5% rates on their ARMs now.
In my opinion, this is the only thing that may prompt the Fed to lower rates a bit - the pressure on a small segment of home owners in ARM loans that need some relief.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens today.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17 : Wednesday is CriticalIf you were paying attention to my SPY Cycle Patterns today - boy, a beautiful "top" pattern setup today. Just like my SPY Cycle Patterns predicted more than 3 years ago.
If you've been following my research, you already know I've identified dual excess Phase Peak patterns that should resolve into a rollover topping pattern, sending the SPY/QQQ moving downward towards the end of this week (Sept 19-20). If the current Ultimate High price level continues to act as resistance, there is a real potential for the SPY/QQQ to move into a downward momentum breakdown the following week (Sept 23-30).
But, the one thing that throws the whole topping pattern into a mess is that the RSP has already broken to new ATHs and appears to be attempting to hold above the previous high-price fractals. Thus, we are seeing the equal-weighted S&P already moving into a broad value-based rally phase.
Watch this video to understand why I continue to suggest traders avoid engaging in any big trades or get greedy, thinking they are going to WIN BIG on their trades. Yes, I'm sure some people will hit their targets over the next 3-7+ days, but others will get run over (hard).
Unless you really like taking the risk of getting run over by the markets or market makers, I suggest sitting back and reading a good book while the markets or traders struggle to find their exits.
One thing is certain: the markets will move into a trend by the end of September—either into a breakaway rally phase or into a rollover topping phase.
You'll have lots of time to position for these trends because my research shows the next cycle phase is October 7-10 (nearly two+ weeks away).
So, why stress out about tomorrow's Fed Rate decision? Just sit back and wait for the markets to give you a clearer understanding of what's next.
I'll create another morning video tomorrow morning.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17: Excess Phase Peak BreakThis short video explains why it is so important to often wait for the markets to show you what it really wants to do - not trying to force a trade when the markets are undecided.
Many traders are likely short right now - expecting a top to setup in the markets ahead of the Fed rate decision. My research suggests a top would likely form because of the dual Excess Phase Peak patterns on the charts as well.
But, the RSP rally to new ATHs over the past 3+ days gave me reason to PAUSE and really consider the potential that price may rally and break away from the Excess Phase Peak setups.
Well, today we have a new ATH in the SPY. We need to wait till the end of the day to see if price gets rejected at these new ATH levels - but this is a BREAK of the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Over the past 10+ days, I've continued to share why these Excess Phase Peak patterns are one of the core constructs of price action. They happen all the time (probably 60% of all trading through any year is an Excess Phase Peak pattern).
There are five constructs to the pattern. They can be Bullish or Bearish in structure.
At any time after the initial PEAK/TROUGH is set, they can INVALIDATE. So, we have to stay keenly aware of when/how they can invalidate.
This video will show you multiple examples of Excess Phase Peak patterns and how to use them.
Get ready, we may be at the start of a moderate melt-up for the SPY targeting 585-595 or higher.
Get some.
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SPY/QQ Plan Your Trade For 9-17 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the markets will melt upward in early trading, finding resistance, then rolling over into a moderate downtrend.
A top pattern is very similar to a reversal pattern. Where price moves higher, finds a key resistance area, tops, and then rolls downward away from the resistance area.
In today's video, I take a quick look at RSP, the equal-weighted S&P500 ETF, where price levels have already moved to new ATHs. And this may be very important for all traders to consider.
If the equal-weighted S&P ETF is moving to new all-time highs right now, while the QQQ and SPY struggle within the Excess Phase Peak patterns, it may be just a matter of time before the SPY invalidates the Excess Phase Peak pattern and moves to new ATHs as well.
The QQQ may be a different story as that chart still shows quite a bit of upper price range before invalidating any of the Excess Phase Peak patterns.
Therefore, I suggest traders stay very cautious today and tomorrow as we see how things play out. Right now, I would suggest the topping/peak pattern has about a 60% probability of playing out successfully today. Those ATHs in the RSP are more indicative of a moderate melt upward instead of a rolling top pattern - at least right now.
Gold and Silver will pause a bit ahead of the Fed rate decision. All markets are in a "wait and see mode" ahead of the Fed. This is another reason why you should not be overly aggressive in your trading right now.
Bitcoin is attempting to FLAG again - moving into a tighter, more consolidated price range just below $60k. I still believe an explosive upward price trend is building for BTCUSD.
I believe we will see an explosive upward price trend setting up just before the elections across the SPY/QQQ and other markets as well - we have to get through the next 45 days of consolidation and uncertainty ahead of the elections.
Get some.
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VOLATILITY EXPANSION = GOLD - $2800MACRO
- Gold is not only benefiting from the prospect of rate cuts but the added uncertainty of lingering inflation concerns given the latest CPI/PPI numbers. If FOMC's rate cut looks anything like ECB's Gold will outperform in the week(s) ahead.
TECHNICAL
Gold has broken out of a tightening range and volatility is expanding. This trade set up will be valid as long as Gold continues to hold above the Daily Bollinger Band and Close above its previous days low. I will look for a 9 candle count move here for an ultimate target around the $2700-$2800 level. That being said, I will look to take partial profits on any major impulses during FOMC meeting/rate cut.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-16 : Gap Reversal PatternMy honest opinion related to the next 2~3 trading days is - go take a few days off and wait out the markets for the next 48+ hours.
I don't believe there will be much in terms of opportunity over the next 48-72 hours as price is likely to chop around near the top of the current FLAG. The real opportunity comes late Wednesday and into Thursday/Friday as price should attempt to break downward (if my analysis is correct) and move into a solid 5-7+ days of downward price momentum.
What I see happening over the next 48-72 hours is Sideways Chop. Not fun for the average trader and really not something you can make a lot of money trading unless you are very skilled at catching short-term price rotation with options.
Overall, the next 48+ hours should be about observation - watching price attempt to stall, break away from this FLAG, and setting up for the bigger move near the 19th & 20th of September.
I'm not telling you how or what to trade. I'm just saying I believe the next 48-72 hours will be very difficult for average traders.
OK. Happy Monday.
Get some.
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The ART of sitting ON YOUR HANDSI was not always a bear... but my arms are tired of holding these Silver Bags for over a decade. I am still bullish! In the long long term ( ;
I am still holding a longterm SILJ short position ( see previous post ) but the immediate future is not clear. Will we get an explosive rally leading up to... during... or after the FOMC? I would not bet on it. The truth is however that nobody knows. As Ray Dalio says, "He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass"
The next few weeks will provide a challenge for market timers and speculators. I expect plenty of whipsaw and broken hearts before a trend is established (bullish or bearish).
I am waiting for a break of 29.83 to become a Bull and enter Long
I am waiting for a break of 26.67 to become a Bear (a big one) and enter Short
I strongly recommend waiting for a daily close over these levels before getting to comfortable unless you are prepared to keep a tight stop and run for the hills if either of these breaks turn out to be a trap.
Until then this range (in between the two levels will provide plenty of juicy scalping opportunities for cowboys like myself. I am using the .382 Fib level 28.10 (derived from the Oct 23 Low to the High in May 24) as my guiding light and BABB (Bullish above Bearish below) in the interim with TPs at my key break levels. They will be formidable resistance/support zones until broken and proven otherwise. Happy trading!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-13 : Rally DayPlease take a minute to watch this video, and possibly some of my earlier videos from this week, as we continue to see the SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin continue to move through an Excess Phase Peak pattern.
It is very important for traders to understand the eventual A/B outcome of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. For the SPY/QQQ, we are still flagging into what is very likely to be a rolling top pattern - setting up a broad downward price trend in the near future. The only thing that can stop that rollover top is a rally to new ATHs (which can happen to invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern).
Because of these pattern setups, it is important to see were the SPY ends this current rally phase and if the SPY can rally above the recent ATH levels or not.
Gold is moving into a temporary topping pattern above $2600. I would think the 2613 level would be the ideal topping level for Gold - but I would expect Gold to struggle to move up to the 2613 level at this point.
Bitcoin is showing an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. I go into detail about this pattern and what we need to look for over the next few weeks.
Ultimately, I believe the markets are moving into a transitional price rollover ahead of the election.
Plan, prepare, and Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : GOLD Breakout WINNERGetting through my morning with phone calls and coding - I took a break to check on the markets and what did I see? A huge breakout rally in GOLD.
This huge move higher (+$40) is a massive win for those who followed my Plan You Trade Videos.
I've been saying any price move above $2565-$2575 would be a gift and traders should attempt to BOOK PROFITS as Gold moves above these levels. I warned not to hold positions above $2585-2593.
In fact, I'm expecting a bit of a metals flash-crash event to take place near mid-October.
But, today is a winner day for gold traders. A HUGE WINNER day.
I'm so happy to hear from all of you about your success with my Plan Your Trade videos.
This is what it is all about - help you become a more skilled trader.
Get some.
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XAUUSD possible breakout soonXAUUSD is currently trending upward, making higher highs as it approaches the top of its established range. This resistance zone is crucial; a breakout above it could pave the way for higher levels, potentially up to 2550. With the CPI news release expected today, there's a possibility that the price may bounce off this range top and continue sideways in the short term. However, the price action at this key level could also signal an impending breakout to the upside, especially if the news is favourable. A breakout would suggest a shift in bullish momentum, while a rejection would likely confirm continued range-bound trading. The target is resistance at 2540
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-12 : BreakAway PatternMuch like yesterday's pattern, today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY.
I believe today's price move will be more muted than yesterday's big rally off the 540 lows.
Combining the 830 jobs data with price expectations is difficult. I believe jobs data will be relatively soft, and traders will interpret that as the Fed may decrease rates before the end of this year. But I believe traders will be wrong, and the markets will flatten out this afternoon (after some morning volatility).
Ultimately, the Fed is very confident that it will leave rates where they are unless something breaks. And because of that, I believe traders are trying to WISH the Fed into making a move.
Because of this dynamic, I believe hedge assets will continue to melt upward and we will move into a fairly consolidated price period between now and the Nov 5 election.
Overall, I believe most of today's price action will take place before Noon ET. Buckle up and prepare to take the afternoon off if my research is correct.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-11 : Inside BreakawayToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open within yesterday's price range and attempt to "break away" from yesterday's range.
I still believe we are moving into a secondary Excess Phase Peak pattern (flagging higher), which will prompt the SPY to attempt to rally to near 560. Because of this, I'm expecting a continued upward push toward the 558-560 area before it stalls and tops out.
I suggest traders prepare for a lot of morning volatility today in early trading, followed by a strong push into higher price trending (upward) as today's BreakAway plays out.
Gold and Silver are making a decent move higher - as I suggested. Remember, Gold and Silver will peak out within the next 4~5 days and will likely reach a sudden peak/top after Sept 20th, resulting in a quick, deep-V type collapse.
I expect metals to move into that Deep-V base/bottom before October 11~14 (roughly).
The US markets and Metals will suddenly flash-crash as we move closer to the US elections. This move will likely be news or event-related. But I feel it is inevitable at this point.
Bitcoin will likely follow gold/silver and move into a moderate flash crash mode nearly simultaneously as metals.
Get ready. This flash crash trend should be a great opportunity for skilled traders.
Get some.
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GOLD is going to start getting much cheaper in SILVER terms.Gold has been on an absolute tear lately as the de facto U.S. corporate government has been printing and spending FRNs (Federal Reserve Notes) into oblivion. As a result, real money is gaining value against the Federal Reserve's monopoly money. Naturally, those who saw the money devaluation coming have been buying gold to preserve their purchasing power, but silver has been lagging behind, even though it has also been appreciating. Although the price of precious metals is, and will continue to be, on the rise, the price of gold is about to get much cheaper in terms of silver. Instead of buying gold, I believe the best move right now is to buy silver, hold it, and once the exchange rate drops to the 35/45 to 1 area, then exchange your silver for gold.
I believe that in the next year to a year and a half, we will see the price of gold cut in half in silver terms, which means it will take half the silver to buy the same amount of gold, effectively doubling the purchasing power of silver versus gold.
Good luck!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Sept 10 : Consolidation CarryoverToday will likely be similar to yesterday - but slightly more consolidated overall.
I belive the markets are struggling into a dual Excess Phase Peak Flag (Step #2) and the SPY/QQQ show this very clearly.
This dual Excess Phase Peak pattern will result in either a breakdown in price (starting after Sept 20th or so) or a continued rally phase breaching the Unique & Ultimate Fibonacci High price levels.
Ultimately, I believe the breakdown potential is higher at this point than the continued rally phase. That is why I'm asking traders to prepare for a top near Sept 20-25 and to move assets into CASH as we melt upward over the next 5+ days.
If my research is correct, the second Excess Phase Peak pattern will prompt a breakdown in price - resulting in an attempt to find support above recent (60-90 day) lows. And that will reflect a -9-14% drawdown in price.
If I'm wrong and we don't see this breakdown in price, then we'll see price struggle to move higher and eventually break the recent ATH levels.
Watch this video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak patterns setup.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for Sept 9 : GapUp-Higher Counter TrendPay special attention to this video and prepare for what I believe will be a type of Flash-Crash event starting near Sept 20-24.
Now is the time to start moving more capital into CASH. Prepare for this potential downside price move of -9-14% by protecting your capital.
Yes. There will be bigger opportunities near the bottom of this moderate Flash-crash event.
No, you don't want to watch your assets fall 10-15% over the next 60 days.
The solution is to move into a more protective allocation mode (70~80% CASH) over the next 5 to 7 days and then ride it out.
Remember, I'm here to try to help you become a better trader. I tell you want I see and I live or die by my output.
I'm not always 100% accurate. But I do believe the markets are going to move into a type fo Flash-Crash event over the next 45+ days and I believe the best way to prepare for this event is to load up on dry powder, trade smaller amounts for now, then look for opportunities near the bottom.
Get some.
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XAUUSD potential Buy trade after the breakout of the channelXAUUSD has bounced off a support level and reached the key price level of 2500. On the daily timeframe, two long-tailed bars have formed, indicating a strong double rejection of the support. If upcoming news does not negatively impact gold, the market could be positioned to test its all-time highs. On the 1H chart, the price action has broken and closed above the downward channel, suggesting that the recent movement was a pullback and signalling a possible end to it. The market may retest the swap zone before pushing to higher levels. The target is the resistance at 2527
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 9-13th: S&P NAS GOLD SILVER US&UK OILThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast SEPT 9 - 13th.
In this video, we will cover:
S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Gold possible up correctionXAUUSD continues its downward movement, closing below the 2500 level and confirming a break out of the consolidation zone. With this momentum, the market is likely to head to lower levels. Although the major trend remains bullish, this correction might find support around the 2450 level. If the market retests this area and shows rejection signs, like a bullish long-tailed bar, it could offer a good buying opportunity. A strong rebound from the 2450 support could pave the way for a continuation of the bullish trend toward the all-time highs. The target is the resistance zone at 2505
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-4 : CRUSH Blends Into Rev-RallyYesterday's price move was clearly a CRUSH pattern I expected on Monday. Because of the holiday trading schedule this week, I believe the CRUSH pattern blended into Tuesday's trading - resulting in today's pattern being a blend of the Rev-Rally pattern on Tuesday and the Up-Down-Up pattern for Wednesday.
Overall, I believe the CRUSH pattern removed a lot of downward price pressure and set the markets up for a bigger upward move starting on September 9-11.
At this point, I believe the US markets will attempt to find a base/support and transition into the end of this week by "looking for support—then rallying away from support."
So, I expect the US markets to find a critical support level today or tomorrow, then begin to form a base and rally away from that support level.
Let's play what is in front of us on the charts and Get Some.
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SILVER'S TIME to TAKE BREATHER Fundamentals:
Bricks buying and geopolitical tensions have kept Gold price elevated pulling up the silver price with it. I believe the Bricks meeting this Sept to be a selling event given that all of the purchase goals (for now) will be met by the meeting. Gold is the stronger of the two metals. I am leaning short Gold but I think silver has more downside potential given recessionary woes (industrial applications).
Seasonal and Election: Looking back Sept-Oct are typically down months for metals.
Technicals: The price is now up against heavy supply zone and major $30 psychological level.
There is a head and shoulders pattern (4r) forming inside of a much larger head and shoulders pattern (2day) (See previous post). At the moment the price has failed to pop back up above the 4hr MA. It may recover. However, I will be selling into strength inside of the the supply zone with a stop on a 2day close above the $30.50 level.
Fed Thoughts: The market has all but priced in a rate cut at this point. Every movement this year has been predicated on them (despite never materializing). I am of the belief that the cut itself will be a selling event regardless of whether or not we get a short lived rally.
Expression: Given that I am skeptical on equities and bearish Silver I will be shorting SILJ given that it has a history of outperforming to the downside on Silver draw downs. In addition, the upside/risk is limited (as much as it can be haha). Major funds are not investing in juniors. They have and will put capital into majors like GOLD and NEM if metals continue to push higher. In addition, miners are not experiencing the upward pressure that Gold and Silver have because central banks and foreign buyers (the reason for the rally in metals) are NOT buying miners, they are buying physical metal. PAAS is also a strong short candidate. It is a basket case (major earnings miss) and will outperform to the downside.