XAUUSD | Trade idea- **Gold Price:** Gold is holding above $2,500 ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll data, having reached a high of $2,523 yesterday and currently trading around $2,517.
- **US Economy Expectations:**
- August Non-Farm Payroll is expected to increase by 164,000, up from 114,000 in the previous month.
- Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.5%, from 6.4%.
- **Rate Cut Probability:** The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has decreased to 57% from 70% a week ago (CME Fed Watch Tool).
- **US Dollar Index:**
- Bullish outlook with minor support around 101.20/100.50.
- Near-term resistance at 102/102.80.
- **Gold Price Drivers:**
- **Global Stock Market:** Bearish, which is positive for gold.
- **US Dollar Index:** Bullish, which is negative for gold.
- **US 10-Year Bond Yield:** Bearish, positive for gold.
- **Technical Analysis:**
- **Support:** Near-term support at $2,470; a break below targets $2,449/$2,430.
- **Resistance:** Minor resistance at $2,520; a break above could lead to $2,525/$2,530.
Gold-stocks
Million dollar stock.Berkshire Hathaway breaking out versus Gold*Note #BRK does own Barrick Gold #ABX
Very interesting chart pattern
25 years in the making
The close of September should mark a confirmed breakout, of Warren Buffet's famous holding company, against Gold on a quarterly basis.
More evidence of a Melt Up in paper assets? And the continuation of the Bull market in the "roaring 20's"
If this is a continuation structure the amplitude suggests that one Berkshire Share, could be converted into well over 530 ounces of Gold.
At current prices that would equate to over a million dollars per share!
AUDUSD:Could fall with bearish metals and stocks!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD For a selling opportunity around 0.65900 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.65900 support and resistance area.
We would also consider the current bearish momentum on Gold and indices since AUDUSD have a positive correlation with Metals and stocks that should put forwards pressure on AUDUSD to downsides.
Trade safe, Joe.
Wheaton (WPM): Further Downward MovementWheaton (WPM) : NYSE:WPM
Due to growing interest in the gold market, we've decided to include a mining stock in our analysis, specifically Wheaton Precious Metals Corporation, a Canadian company that focuses primarily on gold mines. We start with the weekly chart to examine this company. It's important to note we're dealing with Canadian dollars, not to be confused. We've completed the first 5-wave cycle, although not the most aesthetically pleasing, at 76 Canadian dollars.
Since then, we believe there should be further downward movement to complete Wave C and simultaneously the overarching Wave II. We expect to enter the range of 50 to 61.8% retracement, approximately at the level of Wave (A) as we can see more clearly on the daily chart. The subordinate wave structure also clearly shows that we're in a Flat structure. Based on this, we expect to see a 5-wave downward structure.
Should the rising gold prices cause an increase instead, we would invalidate the bearish scenario once we surpass the levels of 64.42 Canadian dollars and then 71.4 Canadian dollars. If this does not happen, we continue to expect to see Wave 3, 4 & 5. Incidentally, we've also precisely completed Wave 2 at the 78.6% level. Therefore, we are very confident there should be further decline before we consider long-term entries in the mining stock of Wheaton.
Xau/Usd (Gold)Hello traders!
The xau/usd (gold) pair is in a triangle pattern. In my opinion, there are two scenarios. Scenario number 1: The pair should test the level of 1975.00 and then take a buy move at the level of 1992.0 and continue a buy move towards the level of 2009.33. Scenario number 2: The pair should test the level of 1975.00 and then take a buy move at the level 1992.0 without breaking the line to go to the level of 1941.00. Wait to enter the trade! Be careful!
Don`t forget to look at the economic calendar!
MAKE MONEY AND ENJOY LIFE 💰
THANK YOU!
GOOD LUCK!
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
Why Is Gold Outpacing the Stock Market?Looking back to 1928, when the time series for the S&P 500 began, U.S. equities have had an average annual price return of 5.9%. But gold isn’t far behind with an average yearly gain of 4.9%.
It can be instructive to reprice equities in gold terms by dividing the S&P 500 index by the dollar price of gold.
The S&P 500 to gold ratio has been through broad swings over the past century, with stocks falling by 86% in gold terms between 1929 and 1942; rising by 1165% versus gold from 1942 to 1967; falling by 95% versus gold from 1967 to 1980; soaring 4000% versus gold between 1980 and 2000; and then falling by 89% between 2000 and 2011.
More recently, the S&P 500 rose by 350% versus gold between 2011 and 2021 but has since dropped back by around 15%.
Gold tends to outperform stocks during periods of fiscal and monetary expansion, price instability, and periods of geopolitical conflict and uncertainty. As such, one might wonder if gold might be the outperformer for the remainder of the 2020s.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Eur/Usd Hello traders!
My opinion is that the pair is in the channel scheme. The price has reached the zone of consolidation, which means it has brought a confirmation for sell at the level (1.0440). Key level (1.0440)! If the bears keep the move, we have a possible scenario and a test of the level (1.02870), but if the bulls reverse the move, we can have a retest of the level (1.05555). Be careful with the positions! War is unpredictable!
Wait to enter the trade! Be careful!
Don`t forget to look at the economic calendar!
MAKE MONEY AND ENJOY LIFE 💰
THANK YOU!
GOOD LUCK!
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
Eur/UsdHello traders!
If the price breaks the neckline, then there is a movement at the level (1.0790). But be careful! A movement occurs if the price breaks the level (1.0450) for a discount to the level (1.0320).
Wait to enter the trade! Be careful!
Don`t forget to look at the economic calendar!
MAKE MONEY AND ENJOY LIFE 💰
THANK YOU!
GOOD LUCK!
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
You're too young to understand, and youre not taught on purposeStocks to gold ratio. Gold is accepted everywhere and in all time periods.
Dollars transform as the quantity changes.
You think russia or china wants to save dollars in this geo political climate?
inflation is a tax, an invisible one.
your energy is sapped, and your not supposed to know why.
education is wealth.
best wishes.
$DXY stagnant & other investments do the same, for most part$DXY sideways
Will likely move after #FED meet
Tomorrow will give BEST idea of direction it's going
$BTC has also been stagnant lately @ 24k
#GOLD not as much but #silver stuck in range
#OIL fighting not break down, small uptrend
#DXY #Crypto #BTC #Bitcoin #dollar #currency
XAUUSD, H1 PROJECTIONPAIR: XAUUSD
TIMEFRAME: 1H
It is important to note that the instrument, GOLD is classified as "stock" and does not necessarily behave like the regular currencies.
One may think price would retrace; correction after the impulse move but from experience, price would keep rallying up until trendline -X which marks a channel.
But like always, the pair is full of surprises so one must be careful in picking an entry point.
Lower TFs are best bets for this.
Using FOMC as trade confluence!TECHNICAL REASON:
Price was within the zone of interest and the 4H candle has no lower wick which means everyone is priced one way; could see some profit taking ahead of FOMC
FUNDAMENTAL REASON:
It is worth noting that to the Fed, to gage inflation and how sticky it is or isn't, they are looking at jobs (more than CPI, PPI etc). Since the job market isn't cracking, it's a little premature to think that tomorrow they're going to come in as dovish as the market is expecting. Powell doesn't even have to necessarily come in Hawkish tomorrow for these moves to reverse. As long as he is less dovish than the average joe on Wall Street is expecting, USD is likely to have a strong reversal upward.
Short idea proved to be valid on the back of inflation print, which I believe is not that relevant. The Fed is focused on Jobs more than CPI, PPI etc. If price stabilizes today (likely will), expecting the market to offer 1825 again as a wick hunt and then for XAU to roll over.
HOW TO TRADE FOMC
I've taken partial profits in anticipation of getting "wicked out" and if this occurs, I will re-enter short around 1825
CROSS ASSET:
Everyone seems to be booking profits right now (see chart). The question is whether they will add once they're doing taking profits, open shorts or wait for tomorrow to make up their mind. The next 2.5 hrs are very important.
1. USD is stabilizing within lower boundary of wedge pattern
2. Bond yields haven't broken the low and are holding
3. NASDAQ (most forward looking index) is pulling back from the highs
Gold's Shorts (XD)Gold could possibly be in a WXY correction.
This could be a potential short at the 61.8% retracement of wave a of Wave Y. Once the market comes at that level I will be looking for price action confirmation. If price action rejects nicely and we dont see break of market structure to the upside. I will be looking to sell.
#ElliotWaveTheoryRocks
Gold will shine in 2022. Stocks in freefall. In this video, we take a look at the Dow Jones priced in Gold. This ratio can help break up the trends you see on a typical line graph for an individual stock or index. Sometimes you see that the nominal price of a stock is rising and you think the market is doing well. Then you compare it to something real and you realize it's actually crashing. A great comparison is the Venezuela stock market priced in their currency. It looks like it's the fastest-growing stock market in the world but they are having hyperinflation so the currency value of the stock doesn't really mean anything anymore.
As we look at the ratio we can see back in the great depression the down gold ratio hit around 1.8 on a weekly chart but it really 1 on a daily chart. That means it took 1-ounce of gold to buy the dow jones. Back in 1980, we see the same thing as gold went to the moon relative to stock prices again reaching a ratio of 1 ounce of gold to buy the DOW. I believe we are heading back to a similar ratio at some point in the next 10 years. If we look simply at the 2008 crisis we see it fell to a ratio of 6. Even if we take that same number then today's price of gold would have to rise to $5,000/ ounce if the DOW is at 33,615. If the down fell 20% from its high, which is on its way there right now, that would bring it to the $29,000 range, and gold still at $5,000 hits 5.8 or so. This tells me either the DOW has to fall to $12,000 which I find to be more unlikely after all this inflation, gold has to rise to $5,600 and the DOW stay still which is possible but again unlikely. Or, it is something in between where the DOW falls and Gold rises. I believe $5,000 gold is actually coming and one of my plays is gold miners using EPGFX because Adrian Day is the analyst involved and he's amazing in that industry. Another that can be played is GDX and GDXJ or a few individual miners but buyer beware.
I don't think these are great long-term plays as they are volatile but when they move up it's going to be fast at bitcoin-like numbers. There will come a time to sell and rotate into other assets like stocks of companies that have good dividends and low PE ratios. Hyperinflation is still on the table along with potential WW3 so keep that in mind as commodities are more likely to be the thing that is held in that time.
GOLD - All the way up!-First, let's start with the technical side of this matter, and highlight the fact that there is a cup and handle structure formed upon GOLD.
-Second, let's talk about how Russia is thinking about buying more gold, simple logic, demand-supply!
-Third, Fear! It is high and it is deteriorating the market while appreciating the value of gold.
-Fourth, uncertainty, war is here, it will be here for a while, stocks are uncertain, they fail to rise, so what else to buy other than GOLD.
-Oh yeah, BTC is rising as Russians are blocked or have their assets frozen, of course, BTC will go up guess what all these oligarchs and Russian politicians are using right now. But it is more of a temporary catalyst rather than a long-term. Gold still stands more stable.