Global-Review / May 29th : Early breakouts. Still speculativeHope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Gold-trading
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 21-25Gold finally broke the trading range it had been into from many weeks on the downside as it slid past $1300 comfortably and posted a nearly $20 weekly loss. This kind of movement was getting over-due and a fatigue was kind of setting in when the price action was taken into account. Fundamentally the events did not favor the rising prices thus allowing it to breach the crucial $1300 mark on the way down. Gold might find its feet soon as big downside even after the range expansion is not on the cards given the global factors which might keep the prices buoyed.
On the chart –
Gold’s breakdown suggests temporarily the bulls have gone in for a pause again. Support levels were taken out without much of a hassle though gold found support at lower and old support areas. Going back above $1300 might take some extra push from the bulls. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold tested it support at $1285 and bounced back, if this is held it may try to peg back towards $1295. If this is crossed it can go higher till $1308. If this is also crossed it can rally till $1317. Though long trades are not the favorites as range has broken on the downside.
2. Gold’s closing below the $1300 and its support level indicates more pain. This offers good opportunity for short trades which went missing from past many weeks. If $1295 is held it can fall lower to $1281. If this is breached it can have a dash towards the channel support at $1265.
Bullish view – There is some hope for the bulls as the prices bounced off from the 38.2 Fib level which also may act as a strong support going forward. If this is held then a rally back towards $1300 and higher cannot be ruled out. But in order to turn bullish prices need to conquer $1300 back or need to take support at channel lows or Fib retracement levels.
Bearish view – Bears were very ferocious this time as they eroded the critical $1300 mark by a good margin and that too on the closing basis. Such a close denotes more downside as key supports were breached. For bears, its a their time now after weeks of range bound activity as price action clearly favors them. For bears to continue pilling up the pressure they must not allow $1300 to be crossed.
On the larger terms, Gold has broken the range on the downside and more negativity is on the cards.
Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1298 for the targets of $1308 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1290.
Gold can be sold under $1288 for the targets of $1281 and $1265.
GOLD - long term - SPECIFIC SETUP!www.tradingview.com
This ascending right may have bullish implications and could take us to $1.600 or higher!
Patience is key here, this is not for right now but you might want to keep your eyes on it!
To be profitable over the long term you need to trade like a sniper: be patient, cool and collected and wait for your chance!
I hope this was helpful to you! Follow for future TA and like if you want to!
Take care!
GOLD SELLConsidering the dxy analysis i have posted prior to this post. If the dxy used that zone as a support (refer to the dxy setup) we should see gold drop to around the o.618 level , where there is a preious strong resistance. ideal area to also go long if we see good rejection around the 0.618 fib level.
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Keep it simple pals !!!!-trend lines
-1year Fib levels
-RSI 14
-Support and Resistance
RSI14 divergence on H4 suggest that the uptrend is losing momentum as you can see in past examples highlighted on the chart....
Scenario 1: break below 1338 would confirm this analysis so: enter trade at 1337 with SL at 1343-44 and TP 1329-28 (1h-4h time frame)
Scenario 2: break above 1347 would invalidate this analysis so: enter trade at 1348 with SL at 1343-44 and TP at 1356-1358 (1h-4h time frame)
Scenario 3: break above 1347 in order to test 1356 o.00% Fib 1 year level so after closing trade of scenario 2, enter again short with SL above 1360 and TP around 1337-1340 support. (1D time frame)
No news to watch, only price action, good trading to all of you !!
Bitcoin vs Gold – No Bubbles COINBASE:BTCUSD NASDAQ:GOLD
Bitcoin and Gold are more and more often compared with each other. And for crypto currency this is another reason to appreciate, as it means investors take it seriously.
Lately, Goldman Sachs' analysts Jeffrey Currie and Michael Hinds said that gold was better than crypto currency. They pointed that the riskier the market environment, the higher the demand on the metal.
They compared Gold and Bitcoin by several criteria, and discovered that by longevity, intrinsic value and stability the former is better than the latter.
However, the only notion that the long established asset like Gold is compared with recently emerged currency may Bitcoin even more attractive.
And judging by the history of Gold, Bitcoin has huge potential in store. Some years ago gold ran from $250 to $1900, and every investor or analyst used every opportunity to claim it a bubble., but it’s still trading above $1,000. Bitcoin has run from $800 to $5,500 since the year start and it’s already called a bubble. But is it the end?
The recent slide for me looks a good opportunity to buy Bitcoin with the nearest target at $5,800.
GOLD breakout.Heading into the debt ceiling disaster and fiscal drama, the treasury almost out of cash, the stock market at all time highs, and more military and at home spending (ironically) there will be plenty of momentum to move gold up. I do NOT believe the market is headed for a crash at this moment but a nice correction should propel gold up. Add to that the technicals here and we're looking pretty good. Consolidation about to break a major downtrend resistence, a 100 dma about to cross the 200 dma, and a reverse head and shoulders to boot. This is going to be a pass or fail event for the short to medium term. Either way will be longer term bullish on gold; any severe breakdown would be an excellent time to begin to aggressively accumulate.
Gold retreats, but outlook remains bullishGold’s exhaustion near $1300 levels followed by a retreat to $1277 levels today suggests a temp top has been made at $1295 (Apr 17 high), but reckon the support at $1264 (Feb 27 high) would hold, given the 5-DMA and 10-DMA are still sloping upwards.
Only a daily close below $1264 would signal trend reversal. On the higher side, break above $1295-1300 would open up upside towards
Gold's longterm update.Channel,elliott and Fibonacci levels.Technical analysis is a powerful tool for creating a better sense of the market and making some predictions based on price actions but it's useless or it has minor importance when a big news with catalystic role appear.
XAU/USD seemed unable and weak to break and mostly established the 1263$ level resistance being in a shakeout area for 20 days more or less.
First it was the US descision to launch cruise missiles on a Syrian base that helped XAU/USD reach the 1271$ level intraday but then the selling power sent back the price back at 1253$ level,once again bears confirmed their dominance at these levels.
Two days later president Trump decided to provoke North Korea through twitter,as it's logical with war possibility rising at the background XAU/USD finally took this extra push it was needed to break and established the 1260$ area for good.
XAU/USD now is at 1287$ and try to break that resistance that it holds since 2016/11 to reach the highs of 1315-1320 area.
As i mention before at my articles published at 26 January of 2017 and 26 march of 2017(SEE RELATED IDEAS BELOW) we had a 5 Elliott waves structure and now we wait the ABC correction waves before making new highs.
Remember that these violent rallies may favor the short-term trader but the same way the went up they can come down due to absence of supports,so be careful with your trades at these moments of extreme volatility due to geopolitical reasons.
I believe we might reach the 1315$ area where we have the 23,6%FIB level and a strong reistance and then i expect a pullback as i show at the chart until 1240$ levels near lows of wave 4.
TECHNICALLY
We can see at the chart the 5 Elliott waves and the corrective waves ABC.
We can also noticed the ascending channel of XAU/USD.
Fibonacci levels well repsected.
LEVELS TO WATCH:
BULLISH SCENARIO: 1290$ GOOD RESISTANCE
1315$ GOOD RESISTANCE AND 23,6% FIB LEVEL
1370$ PREVIOUS HIGHS
BEARISH SCENARIO:
1278$ GOOD SUPPORT AND 38,2% FIB LEVEL
1263$ VERY STRONG SUPPORT
1253$ VERY STRONG SUPPORT AND 50%FIB LEVEL
1233$ SUPPORT
1222$ VERY GOOD SUPPORT AND 61,8% FIB LEVEL
1200$ GOOD SUPPORT PSYCOLOGICAL LEVEL
1185$ YEARS LOWS
HAPPY TRADING GUYS!
Gold eyes support at $1239Gold’s fourth failure to hold above 200-DMA in two weeks, despite US-Syria tensions coupled with the fact that Friday’s daily close was below 200-DMA suggests the prices could be heading lower to support at $1239.
On a larger scheme of things, the outlook would turn bearish only after a daily close below $1239.
Gold looks heavy, expecting a sell-offFailure to breach the falling trend line adds credence to the bearish break from the rising channel seen earlier this week. This coupled with the head and shoulder pattern on the RSI suggests the metal is more likely than not to take out support around $1247 and test demand around $1240 levels ahead of the weekend.
Gold intraday outlook – sell-off seen below $1247Repeated failure to retake the rising channel as seen now, if followed by a break below $1247 in the wake of a head and shoulder pattern on the 4-hour RSI would open doors for a quick fire sell-off to $1240 levels.
Only a break above $1260 would revive bullishness