Gold-trading
GOLD breakout.Heading into the debt ceiling disaster and fiscal drama, the treasury almost out of cash, the stock market at all time highs, and more military and at home spending (ironically) there will be plenty of momentum to move gold up. I do NOT believe the market is headed for a crash at this moment but a nice correction should propel gold up. Add to that the technicals here and we're looking pretty good. Consolidation about to break a major downtrend resistence, a 100 dma about to cross the 200 dma, and a reverse head and shoulders to boot. This is going to be a pass or fail event for the short to medium term. Either way will be longer term bullish on gold; any severe breakdown would be an excellent time to begin to aggressively accumulate.
Gold - Make up your mind
At the moment Gold is in my highlighted blue area.
Monthly Support as been broken but candlestick hasn't closed below the 200 SMA on the daily & Weekly Time frame.
Looking to on the sidelines with this one. Till we get a break out.
Gold needs to close above $1264.50$1254 is the confluence of 23.6% fib retracement of Dec low - April high & 50% fib retracement of Apr high - May low.
Two consecutive daily close above $1264.50 (61.8% fib retracement of Apr high - May low) would open doors for a rally to $1300 levels
Im short Gold but waiting for a retracementWe've seen it break the trend line and now we want to take advantage of the downwards move.
Gold retreats, but outlook remains bullishGold’s exhaustion near $1300 levels followed by a retreat to $1277 levels today suggests a temp top has been made at $1295 (Apr 17 high), but reckon the support at $1264 (Feb 27 high) would hold, given the 5-DMA and 10-DMA are still sloping upwards.
Only a daily close below $1264 would signal trend reversal. On the higher side, break above $1295-1300 would open up upside towards
Gold's longterm update.Channel,elliott and Fibonacci levels.Technical analysis is a powerful tool for creating a better sense of the market and making some predictions based on price actions but it's useless or it has minor importance when a big news with catalystic role appear.
XAU/USD seemed unable and weak to break and mostly established the 1263$ level resistance being in a shakeout area for 20 days more or less.
First it was the US descision to launch cruise missiles on a Syrian base that helped XAU/USD reach the 1271$ level intraday but then the selling power sent back the price back at 1253$ level,once again bears confirmed their dominance at these levels.
Two days later president Trump decided to provoke North Korea through twitter,as it's logical with war possibility rising at the background XAU/USD finally took this extra push it was needed to break and established the 1260$ area for good.
XAU/USD now is at 1287$ and try to break that resistance that it holds since 2016/11 to reach the highs of 1315-1320 area.
As i mention before at my articles published at 26 January of 2017 and 26 march of 2017(SEE RELATED IDEAS BELOW) we had a 5 Elliott waves structure and now we wait the ABC correction waves before making new highs.
Remember that these violent rallies may favor the short-term trader but the same way the went up they can come down due to absence of supports,so be careful with your trades at these moments of extreme volatility due to geopolitical reasons.
I believe we might reach the 1315$ area where we have the 23,6%FIB level and a strong reistance and then i expect a pullback as i show at the chart until 1240$ levels near lows of wave 4.
TECHNICALLY
We can see at the chart the 5 Elliott waves and the corrective waves ABC.
We can also noticed the ascending channel of XAU/USD.
Fibonacci levels well repsected.
LEVELS TO WATCH:
BULLISH SCENARIO: 1290$ GOOD RESISTANCE
1315$ GOOD RESISTANCE AND 23,6% FIB LEVEL
1370$ PREVIOUS HIGHS
BEARISH SCENARIO:
1278$ GOOD SUPPORT AND 38,2% FIB LEVEL
1263$ VERY STRONG SUPPORT
1253$ VERY STRONG SUPPORT AND 50%FIB LEVEL
1233$ SUPPORT
1222$ VERY GOOD SUPPORT AND 61,8% FIB LEVEL
1200$ GOOD SUPPORT PSYCOLOGICAL LEVEL
1185$ YEARS LOWS
HAPPY TRADING GUYS!
Gold eyes support at $1239Gold’s fourth failure to hold above 200-DMA in two weeks, despite US-Syria tensions coupled with the fact that Friday’s daily close was below 200-DMA suggests the prices could be heading lower to support at $1239.
On a larger scheme of things, the outlook would turn bearish only after a daily close below $1239.
Gold looks heavy, expecting a sell-offFailure to breach the falling trend line adds credence to the bearish break from the rising channel seen earlier this week. This coupled with the head and shoulder pattern on the RSI suggests the metal is more likely than not to take out support around $1247 and test demand around $1240 levels ahead of the weekend.
Gold intraday outlook – sell-off seen below $1247Repeated failure to retake the rising channel as seen now, if followed by a break below $1247 in the wake of a head and shoulder pattern on the 4-hour RSI would open doors for a quick fire sell-off to $1240 levels.
Only a break above $1260 would revive bullishness
Oro: possibile balzo del toro?Il Macd segnala un incrocio interessante, insieme ad una possibile rottura della media mobile semplice a 20 periodi. La rottura della prossima resistenza in area 1233.90 potrebbe dare spunto ad un ingresso long fino all'area 1251, dove incrocia la resistenza diagonale di lungo periodo (in arancione).
GOLD Should recover a bit from this mornings news. An inverted hammer has been formed on the 1H chart. TP is the .618% fib
Continuation Pattern for EURUSDAfter some indecision, last week a doji candle was formed in weekly major support level. We can now se on the daily chart some head and shoulders pattern indicating long for EU in the short term.
We are expecting it to reach the 61.8 fib retracement on the green line, and then a possible downside breakout.
This will probably stop at the -27% extension to then retest major levels, and continue to move to the downside.
This is a long term trade, which on it's way, will leave a lot of intraday opportunities.
THE OVERALL SENTIMENT IS SHORT FOR THE LONG TERM.
Gold – minor correction likelyGold’s drop to a low of $1181.70 yesterday pushed the daily RSI into the oversold territory. The daily MACD shows loss of bearish momentum despite prices dropping to fresh multi-month low.
Hence, a corrective move to $1200 is likely.
On the downside, a strong support is seen directly at $1171.85 (61.8% of Nov 2015 low – Jul 2016 high).
GOLD IDEAS --- ***IF IT DOESN'T BREAK 1305 I WOULD RECOMMEND ENTERING SHORT HERE.
IF IT BREAKS ABOVE, IT WILL GET TO NEW HIGH AND WE MIGHT CONSIDER LONG
Gold chart suggests Clinton victory…but, The monthly chart above clearly shows repeated failure at the falling trend line resistance coupled with the monthly 50-MA topping out.
Prices failed to hold above $1301.35 (50% Fib of 2008 low - 2011 high).
The chart thus suggests a corrective move is more likely, which means Clinton victory.
However, charts could lie as markets have been reacting to Polls which are unreliable as proved by Brexit referendum earlier this year.
Trump victory could easily lead to a bullish break above the falling trend line.
Gold – stuck at confluenc e of weekly 5-MA & weekly 200-MADespite Gold’s bullish close on Tuesday above 200-DMA, caution is advised as the pair is having a tough time breaching the confluence of weekly 5-MA and weekly 200-MA noted around $1274 levels.
Also note that Weekly 5-MA is sloping downwards, hence area between the moving average and resistance at $1290 could be dominated by sellers.
On the lower side, breach of support at $1260 would open doors for a revisit to $1241 (Oct 7 low).
Gold – Re-test of Thursday’s high Despite the retreat from the previous day’s high of $1274.60, the subsequent rebound from weekly classic R1 level of $1261 in the wake of a bullish 5-DMA and 10-DMA crossover and a bullish break from symmetrical triangle suggest prices could revisit $1274.60 and may breach the same for $1280 levels.
Only a daily close below $1253 (23.6% Fib retracement of move from 2011 high to 2015 low) would signal bullish invalidation.
Gold – Close below $1311 would be bearishThe falling top formation as shown by the three monthly candles and a retreat from the monthly high of $1352 if followed by a close today below monthly 50-MA level of $1311 would open doors for drop below $1300 levels next week.
Below $1300, a major support is seen around $1284-1260 levels.
On the higher side, only a daily close above $1350 would signal continuation of the rally from December lows.
