Gold – Potential bullish divergence on hourly chartOn the left hand side is the hourly chart, while the daily chart is on the right hand side.
Gold’s retreat from $1353 followed by a day end close below 50-DMA on Thursday suggests prices could retreat further to $13330 levels, although support of 10-DMA at $1327 would hold due to oversold nature of the hourly RSI.
Moreover, a rebound from $1330-1327 levels would result in a bullish price RSI divergence. The subsequent move higher could run into resistance around $1350-1353 levels.
Gold-trading
Gold – Trades below monthly 50-MAGold ended August below monthly 50-MA after having failed to take out long-term falling trend line resistance.
Prices currently trade below monthly 50-MA and monthly 5-MA seen at $1312 and $1300 levels.
Congestion is likely as investors are seen sitting on the sidelines ahead of the August non-farm payrolls data due for release tomorrow.
Gold – Descending trend line remains intact, What's next?“Everything that happens once can never happen again. But everything that happens twice will surely happen a third time.” ― Paulo Coelho, the Alchemist
To a greater extent, the same logic is applicable in markets as well.
The falling trend line was established at the end of October 2012 and was put to test last month. Prices failed to take out the same last month and an attempt this month was thwarted as well.
So the price has already failed twice to take out falling trend line resistance… does that mean the third attempt will fail as well?
The stage looks set for another failure as –
A re-test of falling trend line could happen on Friday or next week if the non-farm payrolls and wage growth figure in the US is horribly weak.
However, August figures are usually weak and are revised higher in the subsequent months, hence markets are unlikely to read take them seriously. Thus, another failure at falling trend line hurdle looks likely.
Gold – Flag and Pole formation on monthly chartPrices failed to hold above Flag resistance and now appear on track to test monthly 50-MA level of $1318 levels.
Also note; the monthly 50-MA has topped out and is now moving lower…towards monthly 100-MA. Losses this month and in the next month could result in a bearish monthly 50-MA and 100-MA crossover. The bullish crossover must have happened in 2002.
Only a month end closing above flag resistance (bullish break) would signal continuation of the long term rally.
Gold – Bearish move could gather paceGold prices retreated in Asia as treasury yields rose, leading to broad based USD strength on hopes Fed’s Yellen could come out hawkish during her speech at Jackson Hole event on Wednesday.
On the daily chart, we have a bearish break from symmetrical triangle, with prices now within touching distance from 50-DMA support of $1329/Oz.
The daily RSI also shows a head and shoulder formation and a breach of neckline would signal further losses in gold prices.
To the downside, a break below 50-DMA could yield $1311 (July 21 low).
On the higher side, a break above $1358 (Aug 16 high) would signal bearish invalidation.
Gold – Daily chart is a mess!Gold’s daily chart is a mess as we have an expanding channel formation, whose upper end is still acting as a support/resistance.
We have a rising trend line that was breached on August 8 and since then multiple attempts to get back above the same on daily closing basis have failed.
And now we also have a symmetrical triangle formation.
Amid all this the money flow index is dropping, which goes down well for the bears when viewed in light of multiple failed attempts to retake rising trend line.
Selling is seen gathering pace once $1337 is breached (symmetrical triangle support). The metal could target $1300 in this case
On the higher side, bulls are advised to wait for a convincing close above $1363.
Gold daily outlookGold’s retreat from the high of $1356 on Friday despite strong US retail sales data marked a rejection at the rising trend line level.
The long upper shadow of Friday’s candle along with a bearish daily close suggests the metal could break below $1333.50 and open doors for a drop to $1310 (July 21 low).
On the higher side, only a day end close above $1358 (Friday’s high) would signal bearish invalidation and expose $1375-1380 levels.
Gold – Awaits breakout from symmetrical triangle
We have symmetrical triangle formation on the daily price chart as well on the RSI chart.
We await the breakout, although the odds of a bearish break are high given the failure to sustain above the rising trend line.
A day end close below $1333 (23.6% of May 30 low – July high) would also trigger a bearish break from symmetrical triangle on RSI and open doors for $1300 levels.
On the higher side, a break above expanding triangle resistance could yield a test of symmetrical triangle resistance.
Gold – sideways action likelyGold’s sharp decline on Friday and a breach of the daily rising trend line suggests the rally from $1312 (trend line support then) has topped out for now at $1367 levels, however, a loss of momentum could restrict gold in the range of $1330-1342.
Bulls may make a comeback only if prices see an day end close above $1342 (expanding channel hurdle).
Gold – Poised to test July highsGold’s rebound from daily rising trend line on July 26 followed by a dip and recovery above $1356 (July 29 high) amid bullish daily MACD and bullish daily RSI suggests prices are likely to test July highs around $1375. We may extend gains to $1380 (38.2% of 2011 high – 2015 low).
On the lower side, only a daily closing below rising trend line support currently seen at $1333 (also 23.6% of May 30 low – July 11 high) would suggest bullish invalidation.
Gold – Multiple Inv. Head and Shoulder breakout on weeklyGold weekly chart shows a bullish break from two inverse head and shoulder formations after Brexit vote followed by a rise to $1375 and a drop to inverse head and shoulder neckline support followed by a rebound of the same and a break above $1358 (61.8% Fibo extension).
The entire price action suggests we are heading towards $1400 handle by next month or so.
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The bullish view goes down well with the fact that August is usually a bad month for risk asset.
GOLD(Monthly) Decision Time
Everyone is Busy with Daily and Hourly charts,So I have stepped back and trying to shed some light on Monthly as it is at a very Crucial Decision point.
Falling Trend line from all time Highs we hit in 2011 is here to decide the faith of Gold ;)
Short Term Correction at least to $1200 is expected in coming month or two, it may not come in light of some Big Global Risk event.
Big Supply zone at $1500 - $1600 which is also a important Fib level.
Best Demand Zone from a Decade perspective is lying at $980 - $890 which again is a important fib level.
Medium Term Traders Look to Buy around $1200 levels and look for break of the falling trend line.
Long Term Investors should Buy around the marked Demand Zone as it will offer them best risk to reward ratio.
I hope i have not disappointed anyone neither Bulls Nor Bears :) I have something for everyone ;)
Take Care
GOLD(Monthly) Decision Time
Everyone is Busy with Daily and Hourly charts,So I have stepped back and trying to shed some light on Monthly as it is at a very Crucial Decision point.
Falling Trend line from all time Highs we hit in 2011 is here to decide the faith of Gold ;)
Short Term Correction at least to $1200 is expected in coming month or two, it may not come in light of some Big Global Risk event.
Big Supply zone at $1500 - $1600 which is also a important Fib level.
Best Demand Zone from a Decade perspective is lying at $980 - $890 which again is a important fib level.
Medium Term Traders Look to Buy around $1200 levels and look for break of the falling trend line.
Long Term Investors should Buy around the marked Demand Zone as it will offer them best risk to reward ratio.
I hope i have not disappointed anyone neither Bulls Nor Bears :) I have something for everyone ;)
Take Care
Gold – rebound from rising trend lineGold’s rebound from rising trend line (drawn from June 6 low and June 24 low) amid post Fed sell-off in USD suggest prices could have formed a short-term bottom at $1370.71 (July 21 low), but reckon the weak momentum in Asia and early Europe would lead to choppy trading.
Further gains are seen following a quick drop to $1333.62 (23.6% Fibo) followed by a rebound above $1342 would open doors for $1358 (June 24 high).
On the other hand, a break below $1333.62 could yield a re-test of rising trend line level of $1325/Oz levels.
Gold - Head and Shoulder on hourlyPattern – Head and Shoulders: Neckline support around $1311/Oz
Rising trend line support around $1317…could extend up to $1319 over next few hours
A bearish break is seen happening if the Fed statement is hawkish. Knee jerk reaction could take prices down to $1284. As long as the hourly closing is below neckline levels, a drop to $1240 over next few days looks possible.
On the other hand, outright dovish statement could yield a move higher to $1340 - $1358 by weekend.
Gold – Rising trend line support at rescueGold’s rebound from rising trend line support on daily seen around $1313 levels if followed by a break above falling trend line hurdle of $1130 on 4-hour chart would suggest a short-term bottom is in place and could yield a re-test of post Brexit day high of $1358.10/Oz levels.
On the lower side, a daily closing below $1300 would suggest a retreat to $1284.41 (March 11 high).
Gold – Re-test of yesterday’s low likely
Despite gold’s rise on Thursday on the back of strong volumes, a subsequent failure to extend gains beyond expanding triangle resistance on daily followed by a rejection at 10-DMA in early Asia suggests a fresh sell-off to previous day’s low of $1310 is likely.
A violation there would expose rising daily trend line level of $1307.
On the higher side, only a daily closing above $1337 would signal bearish invalidation.
Gold – Losses below $1320Gold’s repeated failure to get sustain above head and shoulder neckline level if followed by a break below $1320 today would suggest a retreat to $1300 levels (rising trend line). Only a break below rising trend line support seen around $1300 would signal long-term bullish invalidation.
On the higher side, only a day end closing above $1336 would suggest the retreat from the high of $1375 has ended and could yield sideways to positive action.
Gold – Bears exhausted, risk of reboundGold’s sharp rebound on Friday from the low of $1322 followed by a close above expanding channel resistance suggests the bears may have run out of steam and a sideways to positive action could be seen in the short-run.
Thus, a similar rebound from near $1322 levels if followed by a move above the daily high of $1337 would add credence to Friday’s bullish action and open doors for $135-1358.10 levels.
On the lower side, only a day end closing back inside expanding channel formation followed by a break below $1320 would suggest a retreat to $1300 levels.
Gold - Bears appear in controlGold's retreat from 5-DMA in Asia coupled with bearish 5-DMA and 10-DMA crossover if followed by a day end closing inside the expanding channel formation would strengthen bears and open doors for a slide to $1300 levels over the next week.
On the higher side, failure to dip below upper end of the expanding channel could yield a re-test of 5-DMA of $1345, however, caution is advised since upticks are likely to be met with fresh offers.
Gold- Eyes 5-DMA hurdleGold’s recovery from the session low of $1327.45 followed by a move back above expanding channel resistance following a two-day losing streak indicates the metal could be heading back to 5-DMA level of $1350/Oz levels, but reckon the resistance would stay intact.
On the lower side, a day end closing back inside expanding channel would add credence to the retreat from the resistance zone of $1375-1380 (also point C of the potential Cypher set ups) and open doors for a drop to $1300 levels.
Gold - Strong resistance at $1375-1378As we can see, we have two Cypher patterns; in both the cases point C coincides around $1378-$1375 levels.
Gold's sharp rebound from Friday's low followed by a failure at $1375 and a daily closing at $1355 indicates prices could be heading to $1335.40 levels (neckline support), but reckon the support could remain intact.