GOLD(Monthly) Decision Time
Everyone is Busy with Daily and Hourly charts,So I have stepped back and trying to shed some light on Monthly as it is at a very Crucial Decision point.
Falling Trend line from all time Highs we hit in 2011 is here to decide the faith of Gold ;)
Short Term Correction at least to $1200 is expected in coming month or two, it may not come in light of some Big Global Risk event.
Big Supply zone at $1500 - $1600 which is also a important Fib level.
Best Demand Zone from a Decade perspective is lying at $980 - $890 which again is a important fib level.
Medium Term Traders Look to Buy around $1200 levels and look for break of the falling trend line.
Long Term Investors should Buy around the marked Demand Zone as it will offer them best risk to reward ratio.
I hope i have not disappointed anyone neither Bulls Nor Bears :) I have something for everyone ;)
Take Care
Gold-trading
GOLD(Monthly) Decision Time
Everyone is Busy with Daily and Hourly charts,So I have stepped back and trying to shed some light on Monthly as it is at a very Crucial Decision point.
Falling Trend line from all time Highs we hit in 2011 is here to decide the faith of Gold ;)
Short Term Correction at least to $1200 is expected in coming month or two, it may not come in light of some Big Global Risk event.
Big Supply zone at $1500 - $1600 which is also a important Fib level.
Best Demand Zone from a Decade perspective is lying at $980 - $890 which again is a important fib level.
Medium Term Traders Look to Buy around $1200 levels and look for break of the falling trend line.
Long Term Investors should Buy around the marked Demand Zone as it will offer them best risk to reward ratio.
I hope i have not disappointed anyone neither Bulls Nor Bears :) I have something for everyone ;)
Take Care
Gold – rebound from rising trend lineGold’s rebound from rising trend line (drawn from June 6 low and June 24 low) amid post Fed sell-off in USD suggest prices could have formed a short-term bottom at $1370.71 (July 21 low), but reckon the weak momentum in Asia and early Europe would lead to choppy trading.
Further gains are seen following a quick drop to $1333.62 (23.6% Fibo) followed by a rebound above $1342 would open doors for $1358 (June 24 high).
On the other hand, a break below $1333.62 could yield a re-test of rising trend line level of $1325/Oz levels.
Gold - Head and Shoulder on hourlyPattern – Head and Shoulders: Neckline support around $1311/Oz
Rising trend line support around $1317…could extend up to $1319 over next few hours
A bearish break is seen happening if the Fed statement is hawkish. Knee jerk reaction could take prices down to $1284. As long as the hourly closing is below neckline levels, a drop to $1240 over next few days looks possible.
On the other hand, outright dovish statement could yield a move higher to $1340 - $1358 by weekend.
Gold – Rising trend line support at rescueGold’s rebound from rising trend line support on daily seen around $1313 levels if followed by a break above falling trend line hurdle of $1130 on 4-hour chart would suggest a short-term bottom is in place and could yield a re-test of post Brexit day high of $1358.10/Oz levels.
On the lower side, a daily closing below $1300 would suggest a retreat to $1284.41 (March 11 high).
Gold – Re-test of yesterday’s low likely
Despite gold’s rise on Thursday on the back of strong volumes, a subsequent failure to extend gains beyond expanding triangle resistance on daily followed by a rejection at 10-DMA in early Asia suggests a fresh sell-off to previous day’s low of $1310 is likely.
A violation there would expose rising daily trend line level of $1307.
On the higher side, only a daily closing above $1337 would signal bearish invalidation.
Gold – Losses below $1320Gold’s repeated failure to get sustain above head and shoulder neckline level if followed by a break below $1320 today would suggest a retreat to $1300 levels (rising trend line). Only a break below rising trend line support seen around $1300 would signal long-term bullish invalidation.
On the higher side, only a day end closing above $1336 would suggest the retreat from the high of $1375 has ended and could yield sideways to positive action.
Gold – Bears exhausted, risk of reboundGold’s sharp rebound on Friday from the low of $1322 followed by a close above expanding channel resistance suggests the bears may have run out of steam and a sideways to positive action could be seen in the short-run.
Thus, a similar rebound from near $1322 levels if followed by a move above the daily high of $1337 would add credence to Friday’s bullish action and open doors for $135-1358.10 levels.
On the lower side, only a day end closing back inside expanding channel formation followed by a break below $1320 would suggest a retreat to $1300 levels.
Gold - Bears appear in controlGold's retreat from 5-DMA in Asia coupled with bearish 5-DMA and 10-DMA crossover if followed by a day end closing inside the expanding channel formation would strengthen bears and open doors for a slide to $1300 levels over the next week.
On the higher side, failure to dip below upper end of the expanding channel could yield a re-test of 5-DMA of $1345, however, caution is advised since upticks are likely to be met with fresh offers.
Gold- Eyes 5-DMA hurdleGold’s recovery from the session low of $1327.45 followed by a move back above expanding channel resistance following a two-day losing streak indicates the metal could be heading back to 5-DMA level of $1350/Oz levels, but reckon the resistance would stay intact.
On the lower side, a day end closing back inside expanding channel would add credence to the retreat from the resistance zone of $1375-1380 (also point C of the potential Cypher set ups) and open doors for a drop to $1300 levels.
Gold - Strong resistance at $1375-1378As we can see, we have two Cypher patterns; in both the cases point C coincides around $1378-$1375 levels.
Gold's sharp rebound from Friday's low followed by a failure at $1375 and a daily closing at $1355 indicates prices could be heading to $1335.40 levels (neckline support), but reckon the support could remain intact.
Gold – double top on hourly
Gold’s retreat from the high of $1375 despite bullish break from the falling channel amid overbought daily RSI indicates prices could have formed a double top formation and are heading towards $1335 levels (Friday’s low and neckline support).
On the higher side, only a day end closing above $1380 (38.2% of 2011 high – 2015 low) would suggest continuation of the rising trend from Dec lows and could yield rise to $1400-1430 levels.
Gold – Awaits breakout from falling channel likely
Dollar’s failure to latch on to post NFP gains led to a sharp recovery in gold from intraday low of $1334.90 to $1370.
Gold’s sharp recovery from $1334.90 if followed by a bullish break from hourly falling channel (on hourly closing basis) would suggest the minor corrective rally has ended and could yield a test of $1380 (38.2% of 2011 high-2015 low) in the coming week.
On the lower side, it would take a day end closing below $1329 to signal end of the rising trend.
Gold – Prices could test 38.2% Fibo hurdle on weak US dataResistance - $1363, $1370, $1380
Support - $1357, $1350, $1340
Gold is moving in a minor falling channel on the hourly chart.
Despite gold’s retreat from the recent high of $1375 to $1350 yesterday, the overall bullish outlook remains intact; hence a bullish break from the falling channel could yield $1380 (38.2% of 2011 high – 2015 low).
On the other hand, failure to take out falling channel resistance followed by a break below previous day’s low of $1350 would open doors for a slide to $1343-1340 (falling channel support).
Only a bearish break from falling channel would suggest a short-term top is made at $1375 and could yield a drop to $1300 in days ahead.
Note – Weak US data (non-farm payrolls and/or wage growth figures) could push gold higher to $1380. A daily closing above the same would expose $1400-1433 levels.
Gold – losses below daily low
Gold’s retreat from yesterday’s high of $1375 in the wake of an overbought daily RSI followed by a failure to re-test the same despite bullish tone in Asia today indicates bulls may be dealing with exhaustion.
Thus, a break below the Asian session low of $1362.52 would open doors for a corrective move to $1355-1336 levels.
On the other hand, a break above previous day’s high would expose $1378-$1380 levels.
Gold - prices nearing Leg C of CypherGold clocked a high of $1371 levels in Asia and continue to trade near $1370/Oz levels, which is few points short of $1378 (point C of Cypher). The 38.2% Fibo retracement of the move from 2011 high - 2015 low stands at $1380.
Failure to take out $1378 - 1380 could trigger profit taking. A break higher on day end closing basis would open doors for a sustained move above $1400/Oz.
Gold – Bullish break on daily chartResistance - $1358, $1378-1380, $1400
Support - $1344, $1335, $1328
Pattern – Bullish break from expanding channel
Gold’s bullish break from expanding channel formation on Friday has left the doors wide open for the continuation of the rising trend from December low and a possible test of Leg D of Cypher pattern seen at $1378 levels.
However, prices failed to cut through $1358 (June 24 high) and retreated to $1350. The daily RSI is still away from the overbought region which means another attempt at $1358 could be made.
A break above the same would expose $1370-1378 levels.
On the downside, only a day end closing back inside channel would signal bullish invalidation.
Gold – Re-test of channel resistance likelyResistance - $1320.67, $1328, $1335.53
Support - $1310, $1303, $1297.52
Daily chart pattern – Expanding channel formation
Gold’s recovery from the yesterday’s low of $1310.10 if followed by a break above 5-DMA of $1318 could be an indication of the rally towards channel resistance at $1328 levels.
A day end closing above the same would signal a continuation of the rise from Dec lows.
On the other hand, failure to take out 5-DMA followed by a break below $1310 would expose support at $1297.52 (38.2% of May low-June high).
Gold – stuck at 23.6% Fibo, losses seen below daily lowResistance - $1320.67, $1327.68, $1335.33
Support - $1310.10, $1303, $1297.52
Gold’s repeated failure to take out expanding channel on the day end closing basis followed by a daily closing below $1320.67 (23.6% of May low-June high) if followed by a rejection at $1320.67 and a break below $1310.10 (daily low) would open doors for a drop to $1297.52 (38.2% of May low-June high).
On the higher side, expanding channel hurdle of $1327 needs to be taken out if the prices are to test $1335.33 (June 27 high).
Gold – increased risk of drop to 38.2% FiboResistance - $1320, $1327, $335
Support - $1313.60, $1303, $1297.52
Gold’s failure to sustain above expanding channel resistance for two consecutive session followed by a break below $1320.67 (23.6% of May low-June high) today indicates prices could drop to $1303-1297.52 (38.2% of May low-June high).
On the other hand, only a day end closing above expanding channel resistance would signal continuation of the larger rally from Dec lows.
Gold jumps as Britain files for divorce from EUUK has filed for the divorce from EU and it remains to be seen if the courts (UK parliament) approve it.
But for now shockwaves are being felt across the globe and thus gold is trading higher. Prices hit a high of $1358.41 before trimming gains to trade around $1317 levels.
The Brexit shock could stay for a while and hence prices could remain above $1300/Oz levels. Any worsening of the situation - political turmoil in UK, referendum in other parts of Europe would do well for Gold. Note that such events also take Fed away from the next rate hike.
Consequently, prices could rise to $1376 (point C of the cipher pattern). Note the level is very close to $1280 (38.2% of record high – Dec 2015 low). If prices fail to take out the same and head lower, we could see Cypher Leg D unfold, although as of now a drop to Leg D = 78.6 appears unlikely.
Gold - Sharp losses if hourly closing below $1260Resistance - $1270, $1276, $1285
Support - $1263, $1253, $1246
Pattern – Head and shoulder breakout, Cypher
Hourly closing below $1260 (Point C should not close below 1.414 as per Cypher rules) would open doors for a drop to head and shoulder target of $1246.
On the other hand, rebound from $1260 coupled with a move in hourly RSI above 30.00 would signal bullish price RSI divergence and open doors for a re-test of head and shoulder target of $1276, which if breached would add credence to the possibility of prices moving higher to point D.