Even as the Fed ramps up adjustments, gold still risesGold Talking Points:
I went over gold in-intensity in yesterday`s webinar, and this morning updates given the metal`s persevered charge motion with bulls pushing as much as some other ATH simply interior of the 2790 degree.
The contemporary pullback feels just like the earlier episode, whilst gold stalled in advance of a check of the 2700 mental degree. In that iteration, expenses then constructed a bull flag formation as 3 weeks of sideways grind regarded earlier than consumers had been in the end capable of pressure a push up and thru the subsequent large discern at 2700.
The banner 12 months for gold has persevered and this morning delivered but some other sparkling all-time-excessive into the mix. At this point, charge held highs simply about $10 interior of the subsequent important mental degree of 2800 and this resembles closing month`s episode whilst gold bulls shied farfar from 2700, at the least initially. The excessive then held at 2685 and a bearish channel advanced thereafter, which, whilst all for the earlier bullish fashion made for a bull flag formation.
Given the resistance that has been in region so far, simply across the 2800 degree, I assume this is the subsequent degree that wishes to be accepted. And we formerly had reputation on the 2750 degree after guide confirmed there, which is clear at the two-hour chart below. So, ideally, any corresponding retracement will stay above the preceding better low to hold the door open for bullish momentum setups.
Gold-trading
Gold futures prices have reached a new all-time highThe first factor that draws interest at the every day chart is the breakout above the top border of the pink consolidation (…)
What does this suggest for gold futures?
The capacity bullish situation should take the rate to the $2,800 barrier or maybe around $2,825, wherein the dimensions of the rally could correspond to the pinnacle of the cited pink consolidation.
From the cutting-edge factor of view, we see that the scenario evolves in keeping with the above situation and the shoppers have done the primary goal cited in advance today.
Thanks to this rate movement, gold futures fees additionally reached a brand new document excessive of $2,801.65.
However, given the breakouts cited above throughout all 3 formations, we should see a upward push to around $2,786, wherein the dimensions of the rally could correspond to the peak of the consolidation brown (2d upside goal). At this factor, it's far really well worth noting that during this place there may be additionally the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level (primarily based totally at the October 23 excessive and low), which serves as technical resistance. Therefore, it's far really well worth looking the conduct of the bulls on this place - mainly whilst we keep in mind the closeness to the formerly damaged decrease border of the very brief grey uptrend channel term (presently at around $2,787.30), which can entice dealers to the exchange.
World gold prices increased again, towards 2,800 USDSince the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased more than 34%, due to the conflict in the Middle East, the US Presidential election and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates. Investors are currently waiting for a series of US economic data to be released this week, including the employment report and the personal expenditure price index (PCE) - the Fed's favorite inflation measure. These data may impact the Fed's interest rate decision at its meeting on November 7.
Markets currently place the probability of a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points (0.25%) next month at 98%. "Gold prices will still tend to increase, possibly even to 2,800 USD in the next few days, because the US election is still putting pressure on the market and the possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates is almost certain," Han Tan - market strategist at Exinity Group said.
🔥 XAUUSD Sell now 2778 - 2780🔥
✔️ TP1: 2760
✔️ TP2: 2750
✔️ TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2786
Gold price forecastWorld gold prices increase when the USD index decreases. Recorded at 9:00 a.m. on October 30, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 104,114 points (down 0.02%).
According to Kitco, world gold prices increased sharply, breaking the threshold of 2,780 USD/ounce when receiving many supporting factors. In one week, Americans will officially go to the polls to elect a new Congress and president. Information surrounding the election fueled instability in financial markets, causing investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset.
Increased safe-haven demand for gold has helped push gold prices toward all-time highs.
Today, several economic data could affect gold prices, including ADP employment data, third quarter GDP and US pending home sales. Monetary policy decisions of the Bank of Japan.
Economic data to watch this week include core PCE, personal income and spending and US weekly jobless claims on Thursday and US nonfarm payrolls and PMI measures manufacturing sector's economic performance on Friday.
🔥 OANDA:XAUUSD Sell now 2778 - 2780🔥
✔️ TP1: 2760
✔️ TP2: 2750
✔️ TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2786
Gold prices are influenced by inflation risks and political.World gold prices decreased slightly when the USD index increased. Recorded at 9:15 a.m. on October 28, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 104,357 points (up 0.22%).
Nine analysts participated in Kitco News' gold survey. Last week's near-bullish consensus has narrowed. 5 experts expect gold prices to increase this week, while another 2 experts expect the price of this precious metal to decrease. The remaining two analysts remain neutral on gold's short-term prospects.
Meanwhile, 213 votes were cast in Kitco's online poll. The majority of Main Street investors believe that gold has an upward trend. 126 traders expect gold prices to increase this week. There are 47 people who expect precious metals to decrease. The remaining 40 investors said that prices will tend to move sideways this week.
🔥 XAUUSD Buy limit 2714 - 2712 🔥
✔️TP1: 2730
✔️TP2: 2750
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2706
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
🔥 XAUUSD Sell limit 2740 - 2738 🔥
✔️ TP1: 2725
✔️ TP2: 2720
✔️ TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2748
It is predicted that the price will continue to rise above 2,750Last week, gold prices fluctuated strongly, reaching a record high, but also encountered many difficulties in maintaining the upward momentum, causing experts to have mixed opinions on this week's price trend.
According to a survey by Kitco News, the optimism of experts and investors has decreased significantly compared to last week, when only about 56% of experts forecast that gold prices will increase, 22% said that prices will decrease, and the remaining 22% hold a neutral opinion.
Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Global Forex believes that gold prices may adjust in the short term. He said that current risks are tilted to the downside, especially if gold breaks the threshold of 2,700 USD/ounce, which could lead to strong selling pressure. Sharing the same opinion, Colin Cieszynski from SIA Wealth Management also forecasts that gold prices may decrease next week because there is no positive news from the BRICS conference for the precious metals market. He said that gold is facing a correction after previously increasing strongly.
🔥 XAUUSD Buy limit 2714 - 2712 🔥
✔️TP1: 2730
✔️TP2: 2750
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2706
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
🔥 XAUUSD Sell limit 2732 - 2734 🔥
✔️ TP1: 2725
✔️ TP2: 2720
✔️ TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2742
Xauusd price is likely to be $3,000World gold prices increased in the context of the USD index falling. Recorded at 9:20 a.m. on October 21, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 103,749 points (down 0.08%).
Over the past year, gold bars - a commodity considered a hedge against political and economic instability - have increased more than 31%, breaking many records. The US Federal Reserve's (FED) interest rate cuts combined with safe haven demand have created a perfect storm for gold.
According to senior market strategist Daniel Pavilonis of RJO Futures, developments ahead of the US election and geopolitical developments in the Middle East are supporting precious metals.
President of Phoenix Futures and Options - forecasts that interest rates will decrease and gold is ready to conquer new milestones. He believes that gold prices will reach $3,000/ounce in the first quarter of next year.
In the coming time, gold prices will still be affected by the FED's interest rate management. According to CME's FedWatch tool, US inflation has been contained, the market is expecting a 92.2% chance that the FED will cut 25 basis points and a 7.8% chance of keeping current interest rates unchanged. meeting on November 7.
💎 XAUUSD sell 2734 - 2738💎
✔️TP1: 2730
✔️TP2: 2720
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2744
Gold prices increased about 2.4% during the weekGold costs surpassed $2,seven-hundred an oz for the primary time as worries approximately escalating warfare withinside the Middle East and a traumatic US election race precipitated traders to hurry to safety.
Bullion rose as a lot as 1% to $2,720.17 an oz, surpassing an all-time excessive set withinside the preceding session. The bullish sentiment unfold to the wider treasured metals complex, with silver growing as a lot as 5.5% to its maximum considering 2012. BlackRock Inc.`s iShares Silver Trust, the most important exchange-traded product monitoring The metal, has visible a massive growth in name alternatives as traders guess on better costs.
The marketplace specializes in an increasing number of traumatic geopolitical traits after Israel introduced it had killed Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, the person in the back of the Palestinian group's assault on southern Israel, inflicting a extended war. 12 months lengthy in Gaza.
💎 XAUUSD Buy limit 2715 - 2713💎
✔️TP1: 2731
✔️TP2: 2651
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2705
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
💎XAUUSD Sell limit 2751 - 2749💎
✔️TP1: 2730
✔️TP2: 2620
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2758
Xauusd Technical Analysis | October 21, 2024Gold fees hold the bullish motion and print new document highs that's expected. The fee will hold the bullish motion and investors will await a bearish correction. Whenever the fee begins offevolved a bearish correction, investors should wait close to the guide degree to feature greater lengthy positions. As lengthy because the fee maintains printing new better highs and better lows, the fashion will hold bullish.
Today’s critical levels to watch:
Support: $2,685, $2,600
Resistance: $2,750, $2,800, $2,841
💎 XAUUSD Buy limit 2714 - 2712💎
✔️TP1: 2730
✔️TP2: 2650
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2705
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
💎XAUUSD Sell limit 2750 - 2748💎
✔️TP1: 2730
✔️TP2: 2620
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2758
World gold prices reached record levelsWorld gold prices hit record levels as uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East sent investors looking for safe haven assets. Along with that, the loose monetary policy environment continues to keep gold prices at high levels.
Gold has seen gains of more than 30% this year, surpassing record levels, boosted by expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further after a 0.5% cut. % points interest rates last month and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
USD-Index - a measure of the strength of the greenback with a basket of major currencies - currently reaches 103.7 points, down 0.05% compared to before.
💎 TVC:GOLD sell 2710 - 2712💎
✔️TP1: 2690
✔️TP2: 2680
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2720
💎 TVC:GOLD buy 2690 - 2692💎
✔️TP1: 2710
✔️TP2: 2720
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2683
Gold and Dollar both increased dramaticallyGoldman`s Chloe Garber instructed customers nowadays that Polymarket is priced at 60/forty, there's ~1.5% upside to 65/35 odds, and 4% disadvantage to 50/50 odds.
"I suppose there's a opportunity this pair should visit the July highs earlier than the election, however it might require a few horrible polls for Kamala Harris, while a variety of paintings has been done.
Clients are making a bet this route due to the fact a 60/forty marketplace going to a hundred delta continues to be an engaging proposition while a coin turn is simply hard."
Importantly, she introduced that this nearby Trump fashion hasn't been pushed through income revisions...revisions were barely terrible because the quit of July, so if 3Q incomes season matters, those shares should get affected.
Small Caps underperformed nowadays (for a change), however all of the majors ended properly off their highs of the day. The S&P ended unchanged and Nasdaq marginally better as The Dow hit any other document last high....
💎 XAUUSD sell 2710 - 2712💎
✔️TP1: 2690
✔️TP2: 2680
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2720
Gold price surges and sets new ATHThe European Central Bank (ECB) reduce hobby quotes extensively via way of means of 25 foundation points, in keeping with economists` expectancies.
The ECB stated falling inflationary pressures are developing situations to loosen economic coverage: "Inflation statistics suggests that the deflation technique is at the proper track."
similarly ECB easing withinside the first 1/2 of of 2025. "It basically stays that the ECB will supply a similarly 25-factor reduce at its December meeting, accompanied via way of means of comparable cuts in early 2025 till whilst deposit quotes reached a impartial stage of round 2% withinside the summer.
Gold charges are receiving robust help from secure haven call for and issues approximately escalating geopolitical tensions. In addition, expectancies that americaA Federal Reserve (FED) will hold to loosen economic coverage after reducing hobby quotes via way of means of 1/2 of a percentage closing month are increasing.
💎 OANDA:XAUUSD sell 2710 - 2712💎
✔️TP1: 2690
✔️TP2: 2680
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2720
World gold prices increased despite the high USD index.World gold fees improved regardless of the excessive USD index. Recorded at 8:30 a.m. on October 16, americaA Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the dollar with 6 principal currencies changed into at 103,half points.
Gold rose amid falling US Treasury yields, even as buyers carefully awaited greater statistics for sparkling clues approximately americaA Federal Reserve`s (FED) economic easing cycle. ).
From the start of 2024 till now, gold fees have improved approximately 28% and outperformed US shares and bonds. Experts say that important banks' sturdy purchases of gold have contributed to the above increase. They appearance to this valuable metallic to defend country wide property in opposition to geopolitical and financial instability.
According to Mr. Terrence Keeley - former senior supervisor of economic institution BlackRock and presently CEO of marketplace studies employer Impact Evaluation Lab, on common 15% of forex reserves of important banks is in valuable metals consistent with marketplace valuation.
💎 OANDA:XAUUSD sell 2669 - 2671💎
✔️TP1: 2650
✔️TP2: 2645
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2678
Gold prices are testing resistance levels.Ames Stanley - senior marketplace strategist at the Forex market stated that traders took income after US financial reviews together with CPI and USD elevated sharply. The promoting circulate of traders won't be over yet. Gold costs are trying out resistance levels.
Economic occasions this week that effect gold costs encompass US retail income statistics and the European Central Bank`s economic coverage choice on Thursday.
The marketplace is likewise inquisitive about the Empire State production survey, weekly unemployment claims, housing begins offevolved and US constructing permits.
Besides, buyers and traders are listening to the Chinese marketplace. The u . s . a . plans to announce an financial stimulus package deal from authorities bonds, really well worth 283 billion USD.
🔥 XAUUSD buy 2632 - 2630 🔥
✔️TP1: 2642
✔️TP2: 2655
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2622
🔥 XAUUSD sel 2652 - 2654 🔥
✔️TP1: 2642
✔️TP2: 2632
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2662
World gold prices tend to increaseWith RSI (14) additionally breaking the downtrend, it appears that evidently the relatively pessimistic photo of the beyond month is turning into brighter for buyers, giving investors a caution of a retest of document highs. transaction. MACD has now no longer but showed the signal, even though it is displaying symptoms and symptoms of bottoming.
We noticed a small pullback all through early Monday buying and selling in Asia, as fees retested the small uptrend from mid-September, which had furnished guide till broken. broke early closing week.
If the charge holds above this level, keep in mind shopping for above with a good forestall underneath to defend the goal push to a document excessive of $2,685.7. If it breaks, investors can search for a push to $2700.
Bannockburn Global the Forex market CEO Marc Chandler predicts gold fees will fall this week. Although gold jumped to 2,650 USD/ounce after PPI data, he stated that this valuable steel can also additionally retest the extent of 2,six hundred USD/ounce, or maybe 2,580 USD/ounce this week. Haven call for because of fears of tensions withinside the Middle East is helping gold, however better yields and a sturdy greenback should placed strain at the valuable steel, Chandler explained.
Gold breaks the downtrend With RSI (14) additionally breaking the downtrend, evidently the fairly pessimistic image of the beyond month is turning into brighter for buyers, giving investors a caution of a retest of report highs. transaction. MACD has now no longer but showed the signal, even though it is displaying symptoms and symptoms of bottoming.
We noticed a small pullback throughout early Monday buying and selling in Asia, as costs retested the small uptrend from mid-September, which had furnished aid till broken. broke early closing week.
If the charge holds above this level, keep in mind shopping for above with a good forestall underneath to defend the goal push to a report excessive of $2,685.7. If it breaks, investors can search for a push to $2700.
💎 XAUUSD sell 2652-2654💎
✔️TP1: 2645
✔️TP2: 2640
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2660
💎 XAUUSD buy 2642 - 2640💎
✔️TP1: 2652
✔️TP2: 2665
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2633
Better Buy Levels SoonTVC:GOLD
Based on my analysis, I believe Gold TVC:GOLD is currently at a good selling level. There is potential for the price to drop down to the 0.71 Fibonacci retracement level, which could present a great buying opportunity.
Stop Loss: Set just above the recent order blocks, as compared across different time frames.
While there may be better selling points ahead, the current support built above the current price level provides confidence in a sell position at this moment.
However, if this support level is broken, we should reconsider the selling strategy and potentially look for long opportunities instead.
Economic data more supportive of 25 basis point cutThe market is still waiting for data to be more certain about the next move of the US Federal Reserve (FED). Analyst Giovanni Staunovo of UBS said that since the payroll data was released last week, the market has been discussing whether the world's leading economy is in a soft landing scenario. Staunovo added that the upcoming inflation data will partly answer that question.
This morning, gold prices continued to decline after the FED released the minutes of the September 17-18 meeting, in which it noted that the pace of future cuts will not be determined by the initial cut (the FED just cut interest rates by 0.5% last month).
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she wanted smaller cuts in the near term, due to the remaining inflation risks and significant uncertainties about the economic outlook.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks around the world have slowed their gold purchases in 2024 compared to 2023, but still maintained higher purchases than before 2022. This is partly due to the People's Bank of China stopping gold purchases since May until now...
💎 XAUUSD Buy limit 2606 - 2608💎
✔️TP1: 2615
✔️TP2: 2625
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2597
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
💎XAUUSD Sell limit 2632 - 2634💎
✔️TP1: 2624
✔️TP2: 2614
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2642
(CPI) in September 2024 expected to increase 2.3%The median estimate (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted) for the client rate index (CPI) for the month of September 2024 is 2.3%.
If 2.3% is the real yr-over-yr growth withinside the CPI, it'll mark the smallest growth withinside the quantity because February 2021 (1.7%).
The August 2024 client rate index expanded through 2.five% (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted), in comparison to the median estimate of 2.6%. Over the beyond 12 months, the growth withinside the CPI has passed the median estimate in five months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen quick of the median estimate in five months. It is thrilling to notice that real CPI quantity has been under the estimate over the last 4 months (May 2024 via August 2024). Over the beyond five years (60 months), the growth withinside the CPI has passed the median estimate 52% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen quick of the median estimate 33% of the time.
The median estimate of 2.3% is primarily based totally on 17 estimates gathered through FactSet. These CPI estimates variety from a low of 2.20% to a excessive of 2.40%, for a variety of 20 bps. This unfold is smaller than the trailing 12-month common unfold among the low and excessive estimate of 27 bps and smaller than the five-yr (60 month) common unfold among the low and excessive estimate forty nine bps.
The median estimate (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted) for the client rate index apart from food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.2%.
Tomorrow (October 10) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will launch the CPI and Core CPI numbers for September.
💎 XAUUSD Buy limit 2604 - 2607💎
✔️TP1: 2617
✔️TP2: 2627
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2595
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
💎XAUUSD Sell limit 2637 - 2635💎
✔️TP1: 2627
✔️TP2: 2617
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2653
Fears of rising disputes reduce confidence in goldOn the opposite hand, there may be a danger of inflation, the Boston Fed president stated
Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated Tuesday that the U.S. economic system is at danger now no longer simplest from the chronic race however additionally from a recession.
Collins stated there may be nonetheless a risk the hard work marketplace might be robust whilst the taper is complete, however "it`s all at danger."
"There's plenty to preserve song of. I suppose humility is continually essential and we have got discovered that there may be surprises alongside the way," Collins stated.
On the only hand, the Federal Reserve's push to elevate hobby prices to lessen emissions has made the economic system "extra liable to negative shocks," in keeping with Collins.
"My self belief in displaying development has increased - however so has the danger of the economic system slowing once more to the diploma had to repair charge stability," she stated.
💎 XAUUSD buy 2617- 2615💎
✔️TP1: 2625
✔️TP2: 2635
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2609
💎 XAUUSD sell 2637- 2635💎
✔️TP1: 2625
✔️TP2: 2615
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2643
World gold prices decreased despite the decline in the USD index
💎 Middle East situation: If a military conflict occurs, it is likely that Russia and China will intervene, because they have declared their side to protect Iran. This could push gold prices up sharply due to safe haven demand.
📈 Technically, after yesterday's breakout session, gold's upward momentum has returned, so the main trend of gold price in the near future is still going up.
⚡️ Trading strategy:
Buy Limit orders around two areas 262x and 264x.
Take profit (TP): around the first zone 2645, the second zone at 2665-2670 or higher depending on developments.
Stop loss (SL): below 6 price level for each pending order.
⚠️ Note: Need to closely monitor reactions from the NONFARM report and the geopolitical situation, especially if any tensions escalate in the Middle East, which could cause major fluctuations in gold prices.
World gold prices did not change much when the USD index strengtAdvisors are also monitoring the Institute of Applied Management (ISM) service numbers and initial unemployment claims expected to be announced later in the day, along with data on the situation. Wages in the US non-agricultural sector are expected to be announced on October 4.
In a recent interview with Kitco, Chris Mancini - Associate Portfolio Manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund (GOLDX), shared his optimistic view on gold. He noted that even if gold prices stabilize around $2,650 an ounce, gold miners will still make solid profits.
Although the FOMO (fear of missing out) mentality in the mining sector is not really optimal, Mancini said he hopes this mentality will change as the new year approaches.
Gold price slumps on Wednesday amid heightened tensions between Gold retreated on Wednesday in the course of the North American consultation and dropped 0.50% each day as investors eyed Israel`s response to Iran`s assault on Tuesday. Geopolitics stays the driving force for investors, which lifted Gold fees after posting returned-to-returned bearish classes when you consider that final Friday. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades at $2,648 after hitting a excessive of $2,663.
The marketplace temper stays downbeat, as portrayed via way of means of US equities buying and selling withinside the red. According to exceptional newswires, traits withinside the Middle East endorse an escalation is likely. This shows that Bullion fees may want to enlarge their profits withinside the quick term.
Israel's envoy to the United Nations commented that Iran will face effects for its missile assault on Tuesday. At the equal time, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell brought that it is “now no longer simply Israel this is considering reaction alternatives to Iran assault, US is too.”
In addition, personal hiring withinside the United States (US) improved above estimates in September, in line with ADP National Employment Change data. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated the 50-basis-point (bps) fee reduce in September mentioned that quotes were “out of sync.”
Barkin brought that a few factors of the financial system endorse the disinflation manner could retain however that "it stays tough to mention that the inflation struggle has but been won.”