The "Fed statement" statement caused a wave of gold sellingDollar steadies, eyes on US inflation data and Fed meeting
The US dollar steadied early Monday, with US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year likely to set the tone for this week
Data released last Friday showed that US job growth accelerated in November and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, highlighting the resilience of the job market United States and poses a challenge to expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates early next year.
The data caused traders to delay expectations for when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, with many now favoring May over March.
Gold-trading
GOLD What Next? SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 2072.4
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 2035.0
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold reached record price of 2150$Despite attempts by the Federal Reserve to dampen optimism, gold prices rose above record highs hit during the height of the pandemic on rising hopes for a U.S. interest rate cut early next year.
The precious metal rose more than 3% in early trading Monday, surpassing its all-time high set on Aug. 7, 2020, but has since given up much of that gain.
On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments that monetary policy was "well in the restrictive zone" led to a sharp fall in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, boosting gold's rally since early October. This had a positive impact on the economy. A disinterested attitude affects money.
Chairman Powell then sought to push back on optimism about rate cuts, saying, ``It is too early to confidently conclude that we have reached a sufficiently tight stance or to speculate about when monetary policy will be eased.'' ' he warned. The probability of a March interest rate cut is about 55%, and the May interest rate cut is fully factored in.
Gold prices change rapidlyOn Friday, shortly after Powell failed to address the hawks in his "fireside" chat with stocks looking to hit 2023 highs, we said that Powell would Having major problems isn't so much because if the market is actually right about what's going to happen. Easing will only ensure that inflation will return and that Powell will effectively be the former Fed Chairman's "second man" - only Burns, not Vlcker - but because the price of gold (and digital gold) Moving higher means that the Contradiction for the dollar - and fiat currencies in general - is once again underway.
And with futures having opened for trading on Sunday night, something we joked about on Friday, specifically Powell - seemingly once again out of control on the hawkish narrative - could will reveal emergency interest rate hikes though Nick Timiraos on December 12, ahead of the policy meeting. December FOMC (now the Fed is in moratorium mode)...
$2000 is the biggest barrier for goldAfter recovering from the 200 SMA, Gold prices have risen back to 2009 resistance, following a double peak pattern. Double tops are frequently indicated reversals.
If this is the double level we are finding then the price could bounce lower and look to test support at the November 13, 1931 low.
Meanwhile, if the butcher achieves a close above 2009 levels, prices could extend the bullish trend to April 2050 highs, before taking out 2082, the all-time high. into view.
Gold price analysis November 21, 2023XAUUSD recovered from support at 1930 - 1932 and closed above both EMAs, where EMA21 remains above EMA78, with the gap widening
He is currently bullish with a sideways trend
MacD is about to cut the signal line above zero
At the same time, the bar chart is narrowing in the negative area
Gold prices change rapidly among investorsGold prices experienced a rally after the US dollar index weakened. Strengthening is still expected and a test of $2,000 will be expected soon. Translators who acquired this position when the browser tested support may maintain that position at this time. However, if the gold price does not create a higher swing point and falls to create a lower swing point, a downtrend will occur.
That's right, gold prices are looking for a cooling-off period as the advisor takes more importance on the Fed's decisions and waits for other information.
Previously, Gold changed its cycle of increasing and decreasing continuously because of the war and the Fed, leading to investors losing confidence in technical analysis.
Gold prices have not increased sharply because of investor cautiWorld gold spot price is around 1,980.6 USD/ounce, down 0.27 USD/ounce compared to last week. December gold futures price on the Comex New York floor is at 1,982.8 USD/ounce.
The current gold price cannot increase strongly because of the cautious trend of investors
At some point, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks will reserve monetary policy before taking advantage of the control regime. That decision will strongly trigger the gold market. However, that is currently not possible.
World gold price todayWorld gold prices this morning reversed to increase slightly with spot gold increasing by 8.4 USD to 1,958.2 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at $1,963.50 an ounce, up $5.70 from the bright spot.
The gentle weakening of the USD in the evening trading session of November 9 (Vietnam time) slightly increased the appeal of gold to buyers holding other currencies. Currently, the market is waiting for a statement from the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to know more related to the Fed's future monetary policy presentation. Along with interest, the safe haven demand for gold from geopolitical tensions is also gradually drying up. Hard-to-find gold has steadily increased over the past week.
Looking ahead, in a recent study by Capital Economics, experts said that, although geopolitical instability due to the conflict in the Middle East has created many positive variables for the gold market, the price will eventually move higher as the Fed begins cutting interest rates in 2024. Gold could end the year at $2,100 an ounce.
Keiran Tompkins, an economist at Capital Economics, said that the conflict-related forum between Israel and Hamas is not expected to prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates next year. Experts explain this, oil prices are gradually increasing and decreasing. That means the Fed will have an easier time trying to come up with a 2% benchmark.
Gold prices continue to declineActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista said that investors' risk appetite also improved with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech last week combined with weaker employment data. The US projections have increased expectations that the Fed will end its current interest rate hike cycle.
In a recent note, Heraeus Metals experts said that for gold to sustainably break above 2,000 USD/ounce, there needs to be a clearer signal from the Fed that an interest rate cut is about to happen and that investors Investors are returning to exchange-traded funds.
Domestic gold prices often move in the same direction as world gold prices, so it is likely that gold prices will decrease in the session on November 8.
World gold prices continued to decline this morning with spot gold down 19.3 USD to 1,949.4 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at $1,955.70 an ounce, down $17.80 from the bright spot.
The gold market has seen its third straight bearish session as consultants look for fresh signals on Bank of America's interest rate settings.
Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities, thinks traders will start looking at economic data and potential action from the U.S. Central Bank and gold will react based on whatever comes out. Bring back data. According to this expert, gold is unlikely to grow if data does not find economic weakness.
Recently, in their speech, a series of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials maintained a balanced view on the next decisions of central banks, but noted that they will focus focus more on economic data and the performance of longer-dated bonds.
Why Central Banks Are Betting Big on GoldGold prices had their best October in nearly half a century, despite strong resistance from rising Treasury yields and a strong US dollar. The yellow metal rose a staggering 7.3% last month, closing at $1,983 an ounce, its strongest October since 1978, when it rose 11.7%.
Gold, a non-yielding asset, has historically struggled when bond yields rise. However, an exception was made this year for some significant economic and geopolitical risks, including record high national debt, rising credit card delinquencies, anxiety of an ongoing recession (despite Jerome Powell's insistence that a recession is no longer part of the Federal Reserve's plans). forecast) and two wars.
The list of biggest buyers in the third quarter was dominated by emerging markets as countries continued to diversify away from the US dollar. Leading the way is China, adding 78 tons of gold, followed by Poland (more than 56 tons) and Türkiye (39 tons).
Gold price is in the indecision zoneGold prices drop to $2,000 due to market risks from widespread war in Gaza
Although a pause in rate hikes was announced at the Fed meeting, interest rates are likely to remain at their current high levels for an extended period of time.
H4 gold price shows an ascending triangle pattern
The U.S. dollar index fell to a two-month low of 104.94, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield continued its slide, falling below the key level of 4.50% and hitting a new five-week high. A reduction in the Fed's tightening policy and lower U.S. Treasury refinancing estimates turned out to be the main causes of the Fed's weakness.
Looking ahead, this week will be a relatively data-poor week, but developments in the U.S. Treasury market will continue to be in the spotlight this week as a large-scale U.S. Treasury auction is expected soon. Additionally, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the return of Fed policymakers, and Fed sentiment will continue to play a key role in gold price trends.
The possibility of an energy crisis when OPEC simultaneously redIsraeli forces have entered Gaza City, ending a siege in areas where the main forces of the Palestinian militant group Hamas are based. However, you will face many challenges when fighting in the city. The city is overcrowded.
At the close of trading on November 2, oil prices rose more than $2, ending a three-day losing streak as risk appetite returned in financial markets, supported by the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates on hold. . ) and the Bank of England.
Brent oil futures increased by 2.22 USD, or 2.6%, to 86.85 USD/barrel, while US WTI oil futures increased by 2.23 USD, or 2.8%, to level of 82.67 USD/barrel.
According to Reuters, US policymakers struggled at a two-day policy meeting in midweek to determine whether financial conditions were tight enough to control inflation. whether an economy that continues to perform better than expected may still require additional restraint measures. And finally, after much hesitation and consideration, the Fed decided to keep the standard interest rate unchanged at 5.25% - 5.5%.
Oil investors have been closely following the Fed's policy decisions and are concerned that a sharp interest rate hike could slow the economy and reduce energy demand.
Gold cannot break through major resistanceGold tried to move above $2000 but it was almost impossible and there is now a deep decline
Today's drop to $6.80 may seem insignificant, but given the fact that gold prices have managed to break above $2,000, this is actually significant. That simply isn't happening despite the escalating situation in the Middle East.
Gold is likely to peak with an RSI near 70 and about 1-2 weeks later interest in “war” on Google News reaches its peak. That's exactly where we are right now.
Overall, current predictions for gold prices are bearish.
Gold has lost its appeal in the world's largest marketDemand for gold declined in the third quarter. China's central bank is the world's biggest buyer
Global over-the-counter gold demand fell year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, down 6% from 2022 figures, as central bank purchases fell year-on-year.
In the July-September period, central bank demand reached 1,147.5 tonnes, 8% above the five-year average but still behind the US total of 1,219.2 tonnes. Q3 2022.
In its quarterly trends report, the WGC said central banks' net purchases of 337 tonnes were the third strongest quarter in the data series, although it fell short of the 459 tonnes recorded in Q3 2022. said.
The central bank's demand so far this year has been 800 tonnes, up 14% from the same period last year.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) increased its gold reserves by 78 tonnes in the quarter, regaining the position of the world's largest buyer. Year-to-date gold holdings amounted to 2,192 tonnes, representing 4% of total reserves. WGC said so. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) continued its gold purchases in the third quarter, increasing its total purchases of 48 tonnes in the second quarter by 57 tonnes. Turkey followed with a purchase of 39 tonnes in the second quarter, restoring its gold reserves to 668 tonnes. And the third quarter.
Investment in gold bars and coins fell 14% year-on-year to 296 tonnes, but was still above the five-year average of 267 tonnes.
The Fed continues to make hawkish arguments at the FOMC meetingThe industry's strong performance in the first half of this year was due to investments from the Middle East, Turkey and China, the report added. Gold ETFs lost 139 tonnes in the third quarter, but the outflow was smaller than -244 tonnes in Q3 2022.
Investment demand in the third quarter was 157 tonnes, up 56% year-on-year, but still weak compared to the five-year average of 315 tonnes.
Demand for jewelery decreased slightly due to higher gold prices, falling by 2% to 516 tonnes over the same period as gold prices continued to soar.
“Gold demand has remained stable throughout the year and remains strong despite the headwinds of high interest rates and a strong US dollar. Our report shows that gold demand is very high this quarter compared to the past five-year average. Louise Street, senior market analyst at Gold Council, said: ``Given rising geopolitical tensions and expectations that large-scale central bank buying will continue, gold demand could pick up unexpectedly going forward.'' There is a gender,” he said. World said in a statement.
This central bank buying spree is expected to continue for the rest of this year, with the annual total expected to increase significantly in 2023, according to the WGC.
Besides, the Fed is offering to maintain interest rates more to make it easier to control the economic crisis
Gold is awakening to headwindsUS Dollar, Swiss Franc, US Treasury and Gold; When you think of a safe haven as a store of value during times of economic and market turmoil, these are the names that immediately come to mind. However, amid current geopolitical tensions, gold has emerged as the only name to claim its reputation, coming at a time when the US dollar and Treasuries are looking anything but. that's for sure. While it is not to say that these instruments have lost their safe haven status, when it comes to what traders and advisors can trust if they see the macroeconomic backdrop continue to deteriorate, Gold still increases in price when other instruments do not.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about gold's recent performance is that it comes despite soaring nominal and real bond gains, which have traditionally hindered gold's popularity due to its lack of interest and often There are costs that exist if we are talking about physical gold.
The chart below shows the symbol for gold (red line) for actual US 10-year gift certificate change adjusted to the tee. The scale was later inverted to find how the relationship found between the schools was broken down. You can see that over the past two decades, when real interest rates fall, gold tends to go higher and vice versa.
Gold is fluctuating because of the FOMCGold traded near $2,000 an ounce on Friday after crossing the threshold for the first time since May as Israel's ground offensive on Gaza appears to be more cautious than initially announced.
Gold bullion fell after rising 1.1% on Friday as Israel ramped up ground operations. Israel has been sending troops and tanks to the northern Gaza Strip in the so-called second phase and long war of the war with Hamas, which continues day by day. This allayed fears that a large-scale invasion would lead to regional escalation.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said: ``Oil and gold prices are down significantly in early trading on Monday, but there is a lot wrong with this, which suggests this problem could be long-term. I want you to remember that." "That's why the price of gold can't fall significantly."
The precious metal was one of the biggest gains since Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, rising more than 9% on increased demand for safe-haven assets. Like the Swiss franc and short-term U.S. Treasuries, the Swiss franc should continue to benefit as tensions rise.
The dispute has changed the path of interest rates in the US, with US Treasury yields becoming the main driver of gold prices. However, this week will focus on how interest rate decisions by major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, affect borrowing costs.
Gold prices were inflated as the war spreadThe war escalated and reached its climax
There has been a US air strike in Syria and developments may be more complicated
Experts are suggesting that the war could spread throughout the returning countries
Meanwhile, the gold situation is very positive as gold increased sharply to a peak above 2000
Today, gold has a cooling cycle but is still relatively unstable with the FOMC meeting this week
681 predicting 382 extension on GOLD?Pull back at the open of this week presented a very lucrative opportunity to take gold through resistance around 1987 and push to the 382 extension at 2016.
BULL PLAN:
- Buy dips
- Focus attention on resistance above and taking price higher
- record highs set around 2075 / 2078
GOLD 4H maintains its positive stabilityHello traders, The price of gold fluctuates near the support of the ascending channel. It receives continuous positive support from the moving average of 50, which supports the chances of continuing the rise within this channel and heading towards achieving our positive goals that started in 1996 and extended to 2010.
In general, we will continue to favor the upward trend for today unless the 1983 level is broken and holds a daily close below it.
Pivot Price: 1983
Resistance Price: 1996 & 2010 & 2022
Support price: 1964 & 1947 & 1933
The general trend expected for today is bullish
timeframe: 4H
Gold is resisting fiercely because of the war and the FedGlobal gold prices rose slightly this morning, with spot gold prices up $4.3 to $1,983.9 per ounce. Gold futures traded at 1,997.4 dollars per ounce, up 2.5 dollars from the previous morning.
Global gold prices rose slightly this morning compared to yesterday morning, but remained well below the day's highs as a newly released report showed the strength of the US economy.
Specifically, the report showed that U.S. GDP rose 4.9% year over year in the third quarter, beating economists' expectations of 4.7% and belied by the 2.1% increase in the first quarter. ing. 2. This data supports the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further in future policy meetings. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said the numbers "paint a picture of a very strong U.S. economy," and the Fed could need to raise rates further, which could hurt gold. He said that he is increasing his view that there is a possibility that the
Although economic indicators were better than expected, Moya was surprised by the yellow metal's strength. "I'm surprised we haven't seen a bigger decline in gold prices. I think people understand that geopolitical risks aren't going away anytime soon," he said. Gold has risen 9% over the past two weeks as investors sought refuge from the potential fallout from the conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, the continued outlook for rising interest rates has capped the upside for non-interest bearing precious metals.