H4 Outlook – Between Flip and Trap👋 Hey Gold minds, welcome to another sniper-level breakdown. We're mid-range between major sweep zones and watching carefully how price reacts around the current compression under key EMAs and FVG. Let’s break it down:
🔸 MACRO + FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
USD drivers this week:
🔹 Monday–Tuesday: Multiple FOMC Members speaking
🔹 Wednesday: Powell Testimony
🔹 Thursday: Final GDP + Unemployment Claims
🔹 Friday: Core PCE and UoM Inflation Expectations
Macro sentiment:
FOMC speakers remain hawkish while inflation is sticky. Gold reacts defensively as markets price in Powell’s tone. Liquidity traps on both sides still active. Gold consolidates below key liquidity at 3405, potentially setting up for either expansion or sweep rejection.
🔸 H4 STRUCTURE + BIAS
Market structure:
Price formed a Lower High (3452) and confirmed bearish intent with a break of structure to the downside (CHoCH & BOS).
Currently compressing under H4 Fair Value Gap and retesting an internal OB + EQ zone around 3360–3370, showing signs of rejection.
EMA Cluster:
Price is compressing between EMA 21 / 50 / 100, failing to reclaim EMA100.
EMA5 is crossing under EMA21 – short-term bearish bias holds.
Bias: 🔻 Bearish to neutral
As long as price stays under 3380, supply remains in control. Only a break and close above 3405–3415 would flip bias bullish short term.
🧭 Sniper Zones – H4 Precision Map
🔷 Type 📍 Price Zone 📌 Justification
🔵 Buy Zone #1 3315 – 3340 Valid OB , previous HL structure, FVG reaction support
🔵 Buy Zone #2 3280 – 3302 Deeper demand pocket, untapped imbalance
🟠 Flip Zone 3360 – 3380 FVG + internal OB + EMA compression = key battle zone
🔴 Sell Zone #1 3405 – 3415 Internal OB + unmitigated premium zone under LH
🔴 Sell Trap Zone 3440 – 3460 Extreme rejection zone — 3452 HH sweep logic + OB
🔸 Price Action Expectations (PA)
If price rejects 3360–3380, expect a clean push back to 3320, with possible deeper draw to 3300–3285.
A clean break and close above 3380 (not just a wick) may open the door for a sweep of 3405, where sellers are expected.
Only an aggressive news-driven breakout above 3415 would unlock the final trap zone toward 3450+ – lower probability unless Powell surprises.
✅ Conclusion & Execution Plan
🎯 Watch how price behaves around the Flip Zone — this is the decision point.
📉 Main bearish confirmation = strong rejection at Flip Zone or 3405.
📈 Bullish continuation only above 3415 with volume and closing strength.
💎 Best RR zones:
Sell 3405–3420 → targeting 3360 / 3340
Buy 3315–3340 → targeting 3360 / 3380
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