SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 1-9-25 : Behind The Scenes ResearchMany of you are following my research and Plan Your Trade videos - watching my SPY Cycle Patterns play out as the markets trade through various phases/trends.
What you do not see is the extended research and predictive modeling that go into my deeper research, which aims to help traders.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are just one part of my extensive coded solutions related to cycles/trends/phases and other market conditions. Every week, I review and research dozens of market conditions, attempting to determine the current phase, setup, and conditions related to the market and what to expect in the near future.
That is why, in many cases, I will be ahead of the trends by 2 to 5+ weeks.
You may wonder why I'm able to draw future expected price action often so accurately. This is because of my extended market research (done behind the scenes). My work is not only about the SPY Cycle Patterns - it includes many other more detailed market analyses related to key fundamentals and cycle/phase market trends/setups.
In this video, I try to share some of the extended work I do to help traders so you can better understand how all of my research/work ties together to deliver the best information I can.
In my opinion, trading is about what is likely to happen now, and attempting to identify what is likely to happen in the near future - so we can prepare and trade efficiently through any market trend.
As we take a day off to remember President Carter, I thought you might be interested to see what I actually do every day/week in terms of research and software development trying to help you learn to become a better trader.
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Gold
Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
Analysis of gold news: On Wednesday (January 8), spot gold was currently trading around $2,663. Due to the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the turbulent geopolitical situation, the price of gold rose to $2,665/ounce during trading on Tuesday, close to the nearly three-week high set last Friday. However, due to the strong performance of US service industry data and the increase in job vacancies, it was indicated that the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was reduced. The US dollar index rebounded and the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new high in more than half a year, narrowing the increase in gold prices and closing at around $2,648.53/ounce. This trading day will usher in the US January ADP employment data (commonly known as "small non-agricultural") and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. Investors need to pay close attention. In addition, pay attention to the speech made by Federal Reserve Governor Waller on the economic outlook at the OECD meeting.
Fundamentally, stronger-than-expected new job data and a strong service industry ISM index both indicate a strong economy, but the threat of inflation lingers. It also indicates that the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of the interest rate cut cycle. It once suppressed the gold price to retreat, but did not change the outlook for gold prices. Looking ahead, in the short term, as Trump prepares to take office in January, his policies will promote economic growth and increase price pressure, making gold prices still face short-term pressure range shock adjustments. But the continued shock adjustment is still laying the foundation for the subsequent rise. Trump's tariff policy will also increase market concerns. During the Trump administration, the US debt situation may worsen and the fiscal deficit may increase, which will fuel the continued safe-haven demand for gold. And the bullish factors supporting gold prices in 2024 are still continuing, and the Fed's interest rate cuts, central bank buying and geopolitical tensions will continue to push gold to new highs. Next, people will pay attention to the December employment report released on Friday to find clues about the strength of the labor market. Also awaiting Wednesday's ADP employment report and minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting.
Technical analysis of gold:
Gold has been running in a contracting triangle pattern with gradually falling highs and gradually rising lows since it fell from 2790 to 2536. After nearly two months of consolidation, the current market has reached the end of the triangle. The upper pressure is currently on the 2790-2726 connecting trend line, and the lower support is on the 2536-2583 connecting trend line. No matter which direction the market breaks in the future, there will be a good unilateral market. Please pay attention to whether the non-agricultural data this Friday and the CPI inflation data next week will form a breakthrough opportunity. At the daily level, it fell 2614 on Monday and bottomed out, then rebounded 2665 on Tuesday and fell back. The short-term long and short continuity is insufficient. Fortunately, the closing lines are all above MA5. The high and low price points in the small range gradually rise, and the overall shock is strong. grid The MACD red column on the indicator continues to increase in volume, the golden cross of the fast and slow line is about to surface, and the long-term trend of the 100-day moving average is good. On the whole, the short-term bullish position of gold is strong, and the probability of an upward breakout in the market outlook is high. In the short-term during the day, the low-long trend is Lord. The short-term oscillating upward trend of gold at the 4-hour level is obvious. After each recent decline, the market can quickly rebound to a new high. Yesterday, the market fell under pressure at 2665, but the K line did not continue to fall, indicating that the current trend is strong. Although 2665 has not been broken many times, in terms of the short-term trend, it is only a matter of time before it breaks.
On the whole, today's short-term operation thinking for gold is to focus on buying long and bullish prices when pushing back to lows, supplemented by short selling when rebounding high. In the short-term, focus on the 2640-2635 first-line support at the bottom, and focus on the 2665-2670 first-line resistance at the top in the short-term.
Gold trading strategy:
1. When gold rebounds, sell short at the 2663-2665 line, stop loss at 2673, target the 2635-40 line, and look at the 2615-2620 line if the position is broken;
2. Gold returns to the 2637-2640 line to buy, stop loss at 2629, and target the 2655-2660 line;
GOLD - Price can rise a little and then make correction movementHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price grew inside rising channel, where it at once broke $2600 level and continued to grow next.
Soon, price reached $2635 level, but at once turned around and made a small correction, after which continued to grow.
Price reached $2635 level again and then dropped to support area, exiting from a channel and entering to wedge.
In wedge, price made an upward impulse from support line to resistance line, breaking $2600 with $2635 levels.
Gold made a correction to support line, and then bounced up to resistance line and recently exited from wedge too.
Now, in my mind, XAU can rise a little and then make a correction movement to $2645
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XAU/USD : And Another Bullish Move Ahead! (READ THE CAPTION)Gold prices have followed an interesting trajectory over the past 24 hours, aligning perfectly with our earlier expectations. After a strong rally, gold hit the critical target of $2656, reaching as high as $2664 before entering the marked supply zone. As anticipated, the supply zone acted as a resistance, triggering a sharp decline to $2642. This movement provided an excellent trading opportunity for those who closely monitored the levels outlined in our previous analysis.
Current Market Context
At the moment, gold is trading around $2650, navigating within a crucial range. The price action suggests that gold is testing the resilience of buyers and sellers. If it stabilizes above $2644, we could see further bullish momentum, with the potential to hit the following targets:
• $2655 – A minor resistance level, which could set the tone for stronger upward momentum.
• $2661 – The next key level, signaling continued bullish strength.
• $2666 – A level of psychological resistance, marking a significant test for buyers.
• $2673 – The ultimate target for this leg of the rally, contingent on sustained demand and favorable conditions.
Fundamental Factors Driving Gold Prices
Gold's current trajectory has been influenced by a mix of technical setups and fundamental drivers:
• U.S. Economic Data: Robust job market data released earlier this week highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy. Job openings rose to 8.09 million in November, reflecting strong economic activity. However, this has bolstered the U.S. dollar and treasury yields, creating headwinds for gold as a non-yielding asset.
• Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: Expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have diminished, as recent comments from Fed officials suggest a cautious approach to monetary easing. Fed Governor Lisa Cook emphasized that the Fed may slow down rate cuts due to persistent inflation.
• Central Bank Gold Demand: On the bullish side, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves for the second consecutive month, a move that reflects sustained demand for the metal from the world’s largest consumer. Central bank purchases, particularly in the context of geopolitical uncertainties, have continued to support gold prices globally.
Technical Insights
From a technical standpoint:
• Support Levels: If gold fails to hold above $2644, we could see a deeper retracement toward $2633 and possibly $2625. These levels represent the nearest support zones where buyers may re-enter the market.
• Resistance Levels: On the upside, the supply zone between $2664 and $2673 will be a critical area to watch. A break and sustained close above $2673 could signal the start of a new bullish trend.
• Market Sentiment: Despite recent volatility, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with traders closely watching global economic data and U.S. Federal Reserve updates for further direction.
Looking Ahead
Key events later this week, including U.S. jobs data and the ADP employment report, will likely have a significant impact on gold's short-term direction. Traders should also keep an eye on movements in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and treasury yields, as these remain inversely correlated with gold prices.
Action Plan: For now, the focus remains on how gold reacts around $2644. If the metal stabilizes above this level, traders can look for opportunities to target $2655, $2661, and beyond. Conversely, a breakdown below $2644 could lead to short-term selling pressure, offering opportunities for a potential retracement trade.
Stay tuned for further updates and detailed analysis! Let’s capitalize on these market moves!
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DXY.GBPUSD.GOlD.Day 4 2025.No major news with today being a bank holiday in the US which affects the DXY ( Dollar Index).I do not expect sharp moves heading into the NY session with majority of the big players waiting for tomorrow's financial readings so as to understand better the current economic health in the states.Today looks like a continuation of yesterday's trend with the dollar performing fairly good.
We are currently testing fresh lows in this pair which has been in a downtrend since turn of November.Looking to test the previous low which was broken @ 1.23200.Price currently at 1.22700 at time of writing.
After a stellar year for Gold with the precious metal gaining more than 5000 pips it's time for a fresh year.We have been ranging in the 2600-2700 region for the past one month and if prices are to react soon then we need to breakout of the orderblock above.Waiting for NFP data tomorrow to breakout and get fresh moves for the coming week.Price @ 2665 at time of writing...break above 2670 takes us to 2686.
DXY.GBPUSD.GOlD.Day 4 2025.No major news with today being a bank holiday in the US which affects the DXY ( Dollar Index).I do not expect sharp moves heading into the NY session with majority of the big players waiting for tomorrow's financial readings so as to understand better the current economic health in the states.Today looks like a continuation of yesterday's trend with the dollar performing fairly good.
We are currently testing fresh lows in this pair which has been in a downtrend since turn of November.Looking to test the previous low which was broken @ 1.23200.Price currently at 1.22700 at time of writing.
After a stellar year for Gold with the precious metal gaining more than 5000 pips it's time for a fresh year.We have been ranging in the 2600-2700 region for the past one month and if prices are to react soon then we need to breakout of the orderblock above.Waiting for NFP data tomorrow to breakout and get fresh moves for the coming week.Price @ 2665 at time of writing...break above 2670 takes us to 2686.
TORXF breaking out for short term upside to 23 Hello Everyone,
Have spotted a bullish pattern on the chart that can take the prices to 23 in the short while.
Points to note:
> Breaking out from Symmetrical Triangle
> Forming rectangle pattern
> Rising volumes on the breakout.
> Hammer spotted
Important levels:
Support: 19.4 (lower trendline of the triangle)
Resistence: 23 (supply zone confirmed twice previously)
Entry Levels: 20-20.25 (weekly close above the triangle)
Exit Levels: 19.3 or trail with EMA 100 once it breaches 21 levels.
Risk to Reward: Optimal Entry 20 – Target 23 = Almost 4x Reward to Risk
GOLD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on GOLD, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 2,630.641.
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Gold H4 | Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementGold (XAU/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 2,674.08 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 2,699.00 which is an overlap resistance that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 2,631.36 which is a swing-low support.
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Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to the support area (2540).Colleagues, the previous forecast has gone stale and I decided to take a fresh look.
Waves are redrawn, but the target remains the same - the support area 2540.100. This is the minimum of wave “W” of the senior order.
In addition, before starting the upward movement the bulls need to gain strength. This means that the combined correction is still in progress.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
World gold prices may go up even more.Gold held steady after a strong rally in the previous session amid President-elect Donald Trump’s insistence that US interest rates need to be cut further and China’s second consecutive month of gold purchases.
Gold’s rally eased slightly after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released a report showing rising prices in the service sector. Accordingly, the ISM service sector price index rose sharply from 58.2 points last month to 64.4 points in December.
Inflation in the US has recently been forecast to increase again, making the US Federal Reserve (Fed) more cautious with the ongoing interest rate cut cycle.
The stronger USD has put pressure on gold. The DXY index jumped from 108.15 points at the same time of the previous session to 109.24 points.
GOLD hits 4-week high, eyes on NFP and Trump inaugurationOANDA:XAUUSD hit a near four-week high, although minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting suggested it could take a more hawkish stance as inflationary pressures continue to mount.
As of the time of writing, spot gold is currently trading at around 2,659.78 USD/ounce. It rose to yesterday's high of $2,670.01, its highest since December 13.
It's worth noting that the previously released December private jobs report was weaker than expected, giving the market some confidence that the Federal Reserve may not be too cautious in cutting interest rates this year. .
ADP's national jobs report showed the U.S. economy added 122,000 private-sector jobs last month, while economists had expected a gain of 140,000.
A separate report from the Labor Department showed 201,000 people filed for unemployment benefits last week, below expectations of 218,000.
The more important factor is the US nonfarm payrolls data released on Friday, which is expected to change 163,000 jobs; Any data significantly higher than this number will have a negative impact on gold.
Markets will now be fully focused on the US Nonfarm Payrolls Data and Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration, where they expect Trump to announce a series of policy initiatives.
Minutes from the Fed's Dec. 17-18 meeting showed that officials expect inflation to ease this year but acknowledged the risk of continued price pressures, especially as they assess the potential impact from Trump's policy.
Trump's proposed tariffs could fuel inflation in the US, complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and could pressure gold prices.
However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation will continue to decline in 2025 and allow the central bank to lower interest rates further, albeit at an uncertain pace.
Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but high interest rates have reduced the appeal of this non-returning asset, and in contrast to a low interest rate environment, gold will be the top choice.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still temporarily limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, although yesterday's trading day there were times when it briefly jumped above this level.
However, overall, the trend is still neutral with price movements gradually moving towards the top of the purple price triangle.
However, with the current position, gold has conditions to increase in price with support from EMA21, POC Volume profile and the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. In the event that gold breaks the $2,664 level it is likely to increase further with a target then around $2,693 in the short term, a 0.382% Fibonacci retracement point.
During the day, neutral bias with bullish positioning conditions will be brought into focus again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,634 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2683 - 2681⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2687
→Take Profit 1 2676
↨
→Take Profit 2 2671
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2637 - 2639⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2533
→Take Profit 1 2644
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
Market analysis, waiting for a breakthroughAfter falling from 2790 to 2536, gold has been running in a contracting triangle pattern with gradually falling highs and gradually rising lows. After nearly two months of consolidation, the current market has reached the end of the triangle. No matter which direction the market breaks in the future, there will be a good unilateral market. Please pay attention to whether the non-agricultural data on Friday and the CPI inflation data next week will form a breakthrough opportunity.
Although gold broke through the new high yesterday, it still did not stand firm but fell back and broke the high again. Then the high point did not turn into support and still formed suppression. Gold is expected to form a triple top structure in 1 hour. Gold fell under pressure at 2670 yesterday, waiting for 2670 to continue selling at highs!
First support: 2651, second support: 2642, third support: 2626
First resistance: 2669, second resistance: 2676, third resistance: 2685
Operation ideas
BUY: 2646-2648, SL: 2637, TP: 2670-2680;
SL: 2668-2670, SL: 2679, TP: 2650-2640;
Heading into 127.2% Fibonacci resistance?The Gold (XAU/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 2,676.20
1st Support: 2,644.09
1st Resistance: 2,700.39
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LET THE BULLISH BREAKOUTS CONTINUE!!!!I tend to Thrive in a Trending market. And these are moves I have been waiting for. Looking like Gold will continue to push bullish and make new highs. Bears are trying to push price down but it is not working. Everything is balanced in the area it is in. So price and easily break out and continue with its trend.
XAG/USD (Silver) Wedge BreakoutThe XAG/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Wedge After Confirmation.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 29.42
2nd Support – 29.04
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Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower. On the daily chart, the MACD has fallen below the zero line, signaling continued selling pressure. If the 60-day moving average support level is broken, it would be prudent to prepare for a drop toward the monthly 5-day moving average and potentially the 120-day moving average, depending on market conditions.
However, with the U.S. stock market closed today and the futures market closing early, trading is expected to be light, and the trend direction will likely become clearer after Friday’s non-farm payroll data release. On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal lines have moved below the zero line, indicating stronger selling pressure. Sell-side strategies are recommended, and given the early market closure, taking quick profits would be advisable.
Oil
Oil faced resistance near its previous high and closed with a bearish candle. Due to the rapid surge toward its previous high, a short-term correction appears inevitable. Maintaining support at the 240-day moving average will be crucial. The need to align short-term moving averages such as the 20-day and 60-day with current price levels suggests a period of price and time correction is likely.
On the 240-minute chart, a long upper wick has formed, resembling the head of a head-and-shoulders pattern. A neckline could form near the 240-day moving average, potentially leading to a rebound that forms the right shoulder. Given the wide divergence between the MACD and Signal lines from the zero line, another attempt at an upward move seems plausible. Buying on dips near key support levels is the preferred strategy.
Gold
Gold closed higher. The daily chart indicates a consolidation phase within a range, and market conditions suggest that trends will become clearer after Friday’s non-farm payroll data. Currently, a buy signal is visible on the daily chart, meaning any downward move may require a sharp decline, potentially driven by Friday’s data or next week’s CPI report.
On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal remains intact. Buying on dips is advisable, although the divergence between the MACD and Signal lines is relatively small. For gold to gain momentum, a significant breakout with a strong bullish candle would be essential. For now, range-bound strategies are recommended, favoring selling at highs rather than chasing prices upward.
Today's Market Notes
The U.S. stock market is closed today, and the futures market has an early close. With reduced volatility, a mixed and range-bound market is expected. Please trade with caution and aim for success!
■ Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21,270 / 21,190 / 21,155 / 21,065 / 20,990
-Sell Levels: 21,410 / 21,500 / 21,550
Oil - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 72.80 / 71.90 / 71.00
-Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.40 / 74.80 / 75.20
Gold - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 2,670 / 2,665 / 2,661 / 2,654 / 2,649
-Sell Levels: 2,686 / 2,693 / 2,704 / 2,710
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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2025-01-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Neutral. Higher highs and higher lows but bulls are barely advancing the price. We have still not touched 2700 and even if we get there, I think we find more sellers than buyers and continue sideways in a bigger range. Every new high is sold and bulls will only try so many times before they give up. Bears need lower lows below 2660, bulls want 2700 and bulls are still favored for now but only on pull-backs.
comment: 4 pushes up now and selling new highs has been profitable for 3 weeks. 2700 is the absolute max I can see this touching but I’d much rather sell new highs than looking for longs on this.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2560 - 2700
bull case: Bulls want 2700 next but I doubt they will get much higher than that. That view has not changed over the past 2 weeks. They are fine as long as they are making higher lows and higher highs but they will only try so many times before we see a bigger pullback. Structure-wise bulls do not have much going for them and neither the bears. Market is in an upwards trending trading range and you should not over analyze it.
Invalidation is below 2640.
bear case: Pullbacks are getting bigger but bulls buy it all and bears can’t get follow-through selling after a decent spike. The spike is likely someone big dumping huge positions but it doesn’t matter. I expect more sellers to come into this once we get closer to 2700. First target for bears is a break of the trend line on the 1h tf and a new low below 2650. Closing the week at or below 2650 would be good for bears because that’s where we closed last week and my neutral price for now.
Invalidation is above 2710.
short term: Bearish at new highs (at or above 2680) but market is in a trending trading range. Don’t swing for the fences on shorts.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting close to 2680 was good for the past 5 days.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Once again our chart idea is playing out perfectly with another amazing day on the markets today.
Yesterday we completed our bullish target at 2661 and failure to lock above confirmed a rejection. We used the rejection to buy dips inline with our plans. We are now seeing ema5 lock above 2661 opening 2681. This can now be protected and risk free.
Any rejections here will be opportunities for us to buy dips, as long as 2661 holds as support. A break below 2661 will open the lower Goldlturns for support once again.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2661 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2661 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2681
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2681 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2711
BEARISH TARGETS
2633 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2633 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2611
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2611 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2593
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2593 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2570 - 2551
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold is Ready to Pump Again==>>Short-term!!!Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is currently moving near the Resistance zone($2,670-$2,653) and the 50_SMA(Daily) .
Regarding Classic Technical analysis , Gold is moving in the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern .
According to the theory of Elliot waves , it seems that Gold has completed microwave 4 , and we should wait for microwave 5 .
I expect that Gold can have an upward trend in the coming hours and can attack the Resistance zone($2,670-$2,653) for the umpteenth time.
⚠️Note: If Gold breaks the Support zone($2,639-$2,630), we can expect more dumps⚠️.
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.