GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another PIPTASTIC day on the charts today with our analysis playing out to perfection!!
Yesterday after bouncing off the retracement range we stated that 2611 was a weighted level and as long as we see no lock below 2611, we should see a continuation of the bounce into completing the Bullish gap at 2661
- This played out perfectly with our bullish target 2661 being hit today completing this range. Lovely catch from yesterdays update.
No lock above 2661 confirmed the rejection. We will see play between 2661 and 2633, until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2661 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2661 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2681
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2681 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2711
BEARISH TARGETS
2633 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2633 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2611
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2611 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2593
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2593 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2570 - 2551
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold
GOLD → Price buyback, local bull characterFX:XAUUSD is in a narrow channel, in consolidation, which complicates intraday movement, but nevertheless traders have a chance for possible growth. There is a lot of important news ahead that may give traders a chance.
Despite the strong intraday movement in gold, we can say that the price is standing still in the range of 2600 - 2660. Quite a difficult place for the price due to the huge density of volumes, levels, tails... Traders are refraining from new directional bets ahead of the release of crucial data on ISM Services PMI and JOLTS job openings in the US.
After a strong fall the price was bought back and returned to resistance 2648 - 2650, most likely further struggle will be for this area. The falling dollar broke the support line, thus giving an advantage to gold.
Gold and the dollar are already starting to feel Trump's power and are reacting to his statements as quickly as they did during the last period of his presidency....
Resistance levels: 2649, 2664, 2674
Support levels: 2632, 2610
Until the price leaves the channel 2600 - 2665, most of the movements will not be very clean (nature of price movement inside consolidation). At the moment the emphasis is on 2649. If the bulls will keep the defense above this zone, then in the short term the price may show growth to the local maximum
Regards R. Linda!
Gold bulls win?
At present, the daily price of gold is in an obvious triangle convergence range, and the price is constantly approaching the breakthrough point. From the trend, it can be seen that the recent price fluctuations fluctuate around a wedge area formed by an upward trend line and a downward trend line, and the price is currently running near a higher position, close to the key resistance level.
From the recent wave of sharp declines (high $2790 to low $2537), the price has tested the Fibonacci key retracement level many times. Among them, the 0.5 ($2663.94) and 0.618 ($2693) levels have become the current important resistance levels, and the gold price is testing its breakthrough possibility.
Previously, the price experienced a long period of box consolidation ($2584 to $2644), and then gradually broke through the upper edge of the box and continued the upward trend. The current price is approaching the upper track of the wedge again (near $2719), indicating that there may be upward momentum in the short term. If the price successfully breaks through the upper rail, it may launch an attack on the previous high ($2790), or even open up more upside space.
If the price encounters resistance and falls back near the upper rail of the wedge, it may retest the lower support area ($2615 or $2584). The lower trend line and the Fibonacci 0.382 level ($2634) will also play an important supporting role. Once it falls below, it may trigger a deeper correction.
Strategy Recommendation
It is currently recommended to pay attention to the price breakthrough of the $2660-$2690 range. If it breaks up, you can consider following up with long orders and set the target at $2719; if it fails to break through, you need to be alert to downside risks. In the short term, you can look for turning point selling opportunities near $2660-2650.
In general, gold faces directional choices in the short term, and investors need to operate cautiously in combination with technical patterns and market dynamics.
Gold Outlook: Consolidation Phase with Breakout SignalsGold Analysis
Gold Prices Rise by Over 1%
Gold prices climbed more than 1%, reaching $2,660 per ounce on Tuesday. The rise was supported by a weaker dollar as traders grappled with uncertainty surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff policies amid conflicting signals.
Additional support came from China's central bank, which increased its gold reserves for the second consecutive month in December.
Traders are now awaiting key U.S. labor data and the FOMC minutes for further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook for the year.
Technical Analysis:
Gold maintains bullish momentum, particularly if it can stabilize above the resistance level of $2,665. Currently, the price is consolidating between $2,653 and $2,665. Building volume below $2,653 could reinforce a bearish trend toward $2,636.
However, a 1-hour candle close above $2,665 would signal a bullish move toward $2,678 and potentially $2,706.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2665
Resistance Levels: 2678, 2690, 2706
Support Levels: 2653, 2636, 2623
Trend Outlook:
Consolidation Between 2653 and 2665
Bullish trend above 2665
Bearish Below 2636 and 2653
GOLD BULLISHHello everyone, I hope you are doing well, I'm here to provide an idea of GOLD.
As you know yesterday gold was running crazy, It has touched the price 2616 and then flown to the moon.
Now gold has fall, so that i'm looking for buy setup, and i have found the buy setup there.
Now I will gonna take buy positions.
ENTRY POINT : 2640.83
STOPLOSS AND TARGET : 2633 SL and TP will be 2663.80.
Stay connect for every update.
"Gold Technical Analysis: Bullish Breakout
Based on the chart, here is the analysis:
1. **Resistance Area:**
- The green shaded zone above the current price marks a potential resistance zone. This is where sellers may become active, halting further upward movement.
2. **Breakout Confirmation:**
- The price has broken above a horizontal resistance zone (marked by the black line). This breakout is a bullish signal, suggesting potential continuation to the upside.
3. **Bullish Momentum:**
- The recent upward move shows strong bullish momentum, as seen in the series of higher highs and higher lows.
4. **Target Zone:**
- If the price continues upward, the next significant resistance or target is likely within the green zone, where the price may face selling pressure.
5. **Key Levels:**
- Support: The broken resistance at ~2650 could act as a new support if the price retests this level.
- Resistance: The green zone around ~2665–2675.
**Potential Trade Plan:**
- **Buying Opportunity:**
- If a retest occurs near the breakout zone (~2650), it may offer a good entry for a long position with a target toward the resistance zone.
- **Selling Opportunity:**
- Monitor price action around the green zone (~2665–2675) for rejection signals or a potential reversal setup.
Would you like me to update this analysis based on any specific targets or time frames?
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-7-25 : Counter Trend BreakawayToday's pattern suggests the markets will move upward (counter-trend) in an attempt to move into the RALLY, RALLY, RALLY phase closing out this week's price action.
I suggest traders prepare for what may become a fairly explosive upward trend over the next few days - but stay fairly cautious as unexpected news may derail price trends a bit.
We are still moving into the early 2025 liquidity flood - where traders who pulled capital away from risks in late 2024 are starting to move back into the markets. We are also moving into Q4:2024 earnings data (in about a week or so). So there are still lots of opportunities for big trends.
I'm watching to see if the markets attempt to move to new All-Time Highs again - which I believe is a highly probable outcome.
If my research is correct, we are going to move into that RALLY, RALLY, RALLY phase very cleanly today and tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are moving higher again - which is great to see. Today is a RALLY day on my Gold Cycle Patterns. Could be a great opportunity for skilled traders in Metals this week.
Bitcoin has reached that DUAL FLAGGING zone. In other words, stay cautious at this point.
Volatility will likely increase for Bitcoin and I believe the most likely outcome will be to attempt to move back downward after reaching this dual flagging zone. We'll see what happens next.
Remember, we are just starting 2025, so you have lots of time to try to identify opportunities throughout the year. Your goal as a trader is to find the best opportunities to BOOK PROFITS. The more you are able to BOOK PROFITS, the more likely you are to GROW YOUR ACCOUNT.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
GOLD: Dump and pump from last Friday?Hello traders and welcome back to my channel, please support my analysis if you find it helpful for yourself and don't forget to miss out further charts, suggestions, observations and updates!
Gold looks like potentially going to complete a dump and pump started on Friday, but to understand better the logic behind this template, let's analyse the full week!
The previous Monday and Tuesday established the high low of the week, in fact Monday is the opening range into the new week and Tuesday the initial balance.
Wednesday, the market broke out, triggering long breakout traders in the market, closing out of balance (long traders are now potentially driving this move)
Thursday, from Asia session I could see a strong bearish move joining the market, closing the week out of the opening range and as well as a first red day, which is a potential short signal if a sell high opportunity is identified.
Monday, during the Asia session I saw a great short setup going to pulling back into the previous opening range high, retesting the same area in NY session and triggering as well short breakout traders in the market.
Note and focus on NY session, it placed a strong swing high and swing low which creates our box where money are above and below that boundary.
Today, the market consolidated inside this box, breaking higher just before the beginning of NY session.
What's my thesis?
Obviously I never predict the market but I let it to setup first, however my main thesis is currently LONG, because it can be a clear weekly template of breakout/pullback/continuation above the previous Monday's high, which is a template that I saw many times during the past months!
To take advantage of this template, I would like to see a market dumping down at least into the London low, consolidating till news release at 10am NYT for a buy low opportunity, back to the previous HOW.
Regarding the short, do not forget that Friday was a first reda day, yesterday it placed as well a lower low and it could preparing for a further move down if the market today will place and locked a HOD, consolidation for a session scalp pump and dump.
Before news release, I will be updating this chart!
Gianni
GOLD in 2025. The Main Fundamental Trigger Explained
Many of you asked me to provide long-term analysis for Gold
and my predictions for 2025.
Gold remains in a strong bull run since 2019.
The first trigger for a massive bullish rally was Covid .
The end of lockdowns made Gold finally stop the rally.
The second strong bull run was triggered by the initiation of a "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine by Russia in 2022.
The rally become even stronger with the third bullish wave being caused by the start of Israeli Palestinian conflict.
The main drivers that push Gold prices up are the wars, complete uncertainty and the expectations of further escalations.
However, the US elections and promises of Trump to stop the wars and bring peace made Gold stop growing and initiate quite a remarkable bearish rally in November.
Now the market awaits if Trump will manage to deliver his campaign promises .
If his administration finds a way to stop conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, Gold will start falling to lower structure levels.
Failure of Trump to bring peace and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in contrary will trigger another bullish rally to new all-time highs.
Pay attention to the actions of Trump after the inauguration and let's hope for the best!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Gold Analysis==>>Second Attack!!!Gold ( PYTH:XAUUSD ) attacked the Support lines and Support zone($2,639-$2,630) as I expected but failed to break them ( Fake Break ).
Gold is currently moving near the Resistance zone($2,670-$2,653) and within the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold seems to have completed 5 bearish wave s and is currently completing upward corrective waves .
I expect Gold to attack the Support lines and the Support zone($2,639-$2,630) again and most likely succeed in breaking them this time .
⚠️Note: If Gold breaks the 50_SMA(Daily) and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , we should expect Gold to rise further.⚠️
⚠️Note: At most, you can keep the Short position up to $2,668.⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
How to Analyze a Stock ? Key Questions to Ask Before You InvestShould I invest in this stock ? This is a common question investors face many times
But where do you begin? What should you look for, and what pitfalls should you avoid?
This guide will walk you through the essential steps to analyze a stock, focusing on the business itself rather than the stock chart. Since earnings per share (EPS) growth drives returns, it’s crucial to understand how revenue growth and margin expansion contribute over time.
Before buying any stock, ask yourself these six critical questions:
1.Company: What does the business do?
2.Economics: How does it generate revenue?
3.Opportunities: What are the potential upsides?
4.Risks: What challenges could it face?
5.Financials: What do the numbers reveal?
6.Valuation: Is the price justified?
1.What’s the Business?
- Mission: A clear mission drives long-term success. For example, Google’s mission, “to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful,” is simple yet powerful. Does the company’s mission align with a growing trend or an unmet need?
- Leadership: Effective leadership, especially from founder-led teams or CEOs with a strong track record, often outperforms. Assess the team’s vision, execution skills, and employee approval ratings.
- Products: Are the company’s offerings essential, innovative, or part of a growing market? Consider their uniqueness, potential obsolescence, and innovation history.
2.How Do They Make Money?
- Revenue Mix: Is the company’s revenue diversified or reliant on a single product or customer? A diverse mix offers stability, while over-reliance can be risky.
- Unit Economics: Examine profitability metrics like gross margin and operating margin. Where does the bulk of profit come from?
- Key Metrics: Identify metrics like annual recurring revenue (ARR) for subscriptions or gross merchandise value (GMV) for e-commerce that best reflect the company’s performance trends.
3.What Could Go Right?
- Market Growth: Does the company operate in a growing industry, such as AI or renewable energy?
-Innovation: Look for ongoing R&D and a track record of successful product launches.
-Moat Expansion: Assess the company’s competitive advantage, whether it’s a strong brand, proprietary technology, or cost leadership.
4. What Could Go Wrong?
-Market Disruption: Is the company prepared for sudden changes, like new technologies or regulations?
-Competition: Strong rivals can erode market share. Analyze customer reviews and competitor benchmarks.
- Moat Erosion: A shrinking competitive edge—such as declining pricing power or poor retention—can signal trouble.
5.What Do the Numbers Say?
- Profitability: Check revenue growth, gross margins, and net income for consistent improvements.
- Solvency: Assess the balance sheet for debt-to-equity ratios, cash reserves, and financial stability.
- Liquidity: Positive and consistent cash flow indicates sustainability and growth potential.
6.Is the Price Right?
- Valuation Metrics: Use Price to Earnings (P/E), Price to Sales (P/S), or other relevant metrics depending on the company’s growth stage. Compare these to peers and market standards.
-Investment Horizon: Longer investment timelines can justify higher valuations if growth potential exists.
-Focus on Fundamentals: Valuation matters only if the business is strong. Avoid being tempted by low prices without underlying value.
By breaking a company into these six dimensions, you can turn complex decisions into actionable insights. Start with the business fundamentals, evaluate opportunities and risks, and finish by assessing valuation.
What stock will you analyze next? Let’s put this framework into action now
GOLD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 2,644.615.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 2,625.451 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
GOLD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
GOLD uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 2,592.930 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the GOLD pair.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
A case for silver.Silver is currently under significant regulatory constraints, and its prevailing market price does not incentivize the allocation of capital toward ventures focused on increasing its supply. This creates a supply constraint for the asset.
Beyond its role as an inflation hedge, a characteristic shared by most commodities, silver possesses unique properties that are particularly valuable for industrial applications. As we stand on the brink of a new wave of industrial expansion, silver's conductivity and reflectivity make it indispensable in various technologies, such as solar panels (where China leads in production), antifreeze formulations, and numerous other applications.
Recently, President Putin announced that Russia will include silver in its strategic reserves. Meanwhile, China has been engaging in confidential agreements with miners and refiners to secure prices over extended periods. Due to China's relatively loose regulatory framework, these transactions are not publicly disclosed, and as a result, they are not reflected in silver's market price. This can be said for African, Latin-American, or other Asian countries with loose regulation for these kinds of markets. Silver pricing predominantly occurs on the futures market, which underscores cases where a disconnect arises between market prices and underlying realities, leading to potential distortions in valuation.
Case 1: JP Morgan commodities trading desk scandal.
" A federal jury in the Northern District of Illinois convicted a former trader at JPMorgan Chase and Credit Suisse today of fraud in connection with a spoofing scheme in the gold and silver futures markets.
According to court documents and evidence presented at trial, Christopher Jordan, 51, of Mountainside, New Jersey, was an executive director and trader on JPMorgan’s precious metals desk in New York from 2006 to 2009, and on Credit Suisse’s precious metals desk in New York in 2010. Between 2008 and 2010, Jordan placed thousands of spoof orders, i.e., orders that he intended to cancel before execution, to drive prices in a direction more favorable to orders he intended to execute on the opposite side of the market. Jordan engaged in this deceptive spoofing strategy while trading gold and silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX), which is a commodities exchange operated by the CME Group. These deceptive orders were intended to inject false and misleading information about the genuine supply and demand for gold and silver futures contracts into the markets... Four other former JPMorgan precious metals traders were previously convicted in related cases. In August 2022, Gregg Smith and Michael Nowak... spoofing... In October 2018, John Edmonds pleaded guilty in the District of Connecticut... wire fraud, commodities fraud, price manipulation, and spoofing... In August 2019, Christian Trunz pleaded guilty in the Eastern District of New York to one count of conspiracy to engage in spoofing and one count of spoofing... "
This is the article if you'd like to read more: www.justice.gov
My thoughts; This type of practice is an example of how there always a disconnect with real life and markets. One must also remember how information travels and the infrastructure and systems in place that runs our financial system. I believe JP Morgan's swift settlement shows to me there was not much accountability addressed.
Case 2: Silver Thursday, Hunts Brothers, 1970s
" Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt — oil company executives, investors and brothers — first began purchasing silver in the early 1970s at a price of less than $2 per ounce. The Hunt brothers’ fervor for silver accelerated dramatically following the death of their father in 1974, a Texas oil tycoon known as H.L. Hunt. His passing released a $5 billion fortune to members of the Hunt family.
Fueled by an enormous amount of capital, the Hunt brothers continued stockpiling silver and purchasing silver futures contracts. By early 1979, the price of silver had risen to about $6 per ounce. The Hunt brothers acquired roughly 195 million ounces of silver, about a third of the world’s total supply. They facilitated their silver purchases in part by investing in futures contracts through several brokers, including Bache Halsey Stuart Shields, Prudential-Bache Securities, and Prudential Securities. By December 1979, the market price for silver fluctuated between $20 and $25 per ounce.
Silver had become exorbitantly expensive even for practical uses. Doctors struggled to afford X-ray film for patients, families melted down their heirloom silver flatware, silver burglaries skyrocketed, and Tiffany’s & Co. was forced to drastically raise its jewelry prices. Tiffany’s even took out a full-page ad in the New York Times criticizing the Hunt brothers, writing, “We think it is unconscionable for anyone to hoard several billion, yes billion, dollars’ worth of silver and thus drive the price up so high that others must pay artificially high prices for articles made of silver.”
Silver reached a record high of $48.70 per ounce on Jan. 18, 1980. By some estimates, the Hunt brothers’ entire silver fortune peaked at a value of $10 billion.
Thursday, March 27, 1980
Facing out-of-control silver prices, COMEX (Commodity Exchange, Inc.), a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), acted against the Hunt brothers. On Jan. 7, 1980, COMEX introduced Silver Rule 7, which placed heavy restrictions on the purchase of commodities on the margin.
Following its peak price of $48.70 per ounce, silver began its decline and the Hunt family’s silver fortune began to shrink.
On March 27, 1980, known as Silver Thursday, the price of silver dropped 50% in a single day, from $21.62 to $10.80 per ounce. The Hunt brothers failed to meet several margin calls and about $7 billion in paper assets suddenly turned into a $1.7 billion debt.
The sudden price drop threatened to collapse several investment firms and banks. To prevent widespread financial chaos, multiple banks joined together to issue the Hunt brothers a $1.1 billion line of credit..."
The original article: learn.apmex.com
My thoughts: Now you see that one entity can have huge influence on the market. Your once dusty silver mirror can become valuable enough for you to go and find it and clean it and sell it.
One actionable step you can take today is to capitalize on silver's current low valuation. There's clearly a lag between what's happening in the physical market and how that information gets reflected in exchange prices. Interestingly, we've seen noticeable price increases and premiums when buying physical silver, but there hasn’t been much movement in the more liquid instruments like the GLD or SLV ETFs—which, by the way, JPM vaults silver for. This disconnect exists because the market takes time to catch up to reality. What’s your take on this?
More articles:
marketsanity.com
www.justice.gov
www.reuters.com
www.investing.com
seekingalpha.com
investingnews.com
metalsedge.com
www.moneymetals.com
XAUUSD:7/1 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2660, support below 2580
Four-hour resistance 2645, support below 2600-2580
Gold operation suggestions: Gold fluctuated narrowly on Tuesday and is currently trading around 2639. Gold prices fell slightly on Monday. The Federal Reserve recently hinted that it would slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. U.S. Treasury yields climbed to a new high since May. Gold prices hit a three-day low of around 2614 during the session. However, there were conflicting reports on how aggressive the tariff plan of U.S. President-elect Trump would be after taking office. The U.S. dollar index fell to a new low in more than a week, and gold prices rebounded slightly in late trading.
From the 4-hour analysis, we focus on the short-term suppression of the 2645 line on the top, and the short-term support of the 2637-27 line on the bottom, with a focus on support of 2600. The operation is mainly to buy on dips, supplemented by range trading.
BUY:2627near
BUY:2614near
The strategy only provides trading directions. Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
Today’s gold trend trading analysis
Today, gold hit the lowest level of 2626 and began to rebound. The 4-hour big positive line of gold took off directly. A big positive line directly swallowed up countless big negative line entities. This is the strength of the bulls. The big positive line directly lifted the roof. Above gold, we continue to pay attention to the 2655-2658 line, focusing on the 2665 line. If the upper position does not break, do not chase the long position at the high position and the short position at the low position, otherwise non-agricultural week trading will be more difficult.
From the 4-hour analysis, pay attention to the support of 2625-2630 below, and pay attention to the short-term suppression of 2655-2658 above, and focus on the high suppression of 2665 last Friday. The main tone of the cycle of selling high and buying low remains unchanged. Always be cautious in chasing orders and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Gold returns to the 2630-2635 line to go long, stop loss at 2623, and target the 2655-2658 line;
2. Go short on the rebound 2653-2658 line, cover the position on the rebound 2665 line, stop loss 2673, target the 2635-40 line, and look at the 2625-2630 line if the position is broken;
GBPUSD Analysis: Bullish Breakout from Falling WedgEThe forex pair GBPUSD is currently trading at 1.25600, with a target price set at 1.28000, indicating a potential gain of over 200 pips. The price action showcases a falling wedge pattern, a bullish reversal formation, which has already broken out to the upside. This breakout confirms a shift in momentum, aligning with the bullish prediction made in prior analysis. Falling wedges typically suggest decreasing bearish pressure, paving the way for buyers to dominate. The breakout signifies a strong upward move, reinforcing confidence in the target price. Traders may see this as an opportunity to capitalize on the bullish trend. However, market conditions, such as economic data or geopolitical events, should still be monitored. Proper risk management remains essential to mitigate potential losses. This setup highlights the importance of technical analysis in identifying profitable trading opportunities.
Gold - Ready to break higher as tariff tensions escalateGold has made modest ground through Asia, adding $8 on the day, however, the news flow certainly suggests a higher probability that we could soon see increasing buying flows, as investors start to seek out portfolio protection from the incoming tariff hostilities.
News that China added to its gold reserves for a second consecutive month in December, taking its reserves rise to 73.29m ounces from 72.96m in November, is one supportive factor.
Another could be its role as a hedge against the impending tariff news flow.
Tariffs are well known to markets and the idea that Trump will come in on 20 January and put through orders to hit various economies with tariffs is firmly discounted.
What is not priced is aspect of the counter response and the potential retaliation measures…. Of course, It’s not as if anyone expects those nations targeted by Trump’s tariffs to simply take it without a counter response, but it depends on what that response looks like and whether it leads to a painful and protracted tit for tat ‘battle’ that plays out on socials and the media headlines.
Today, amid Justin Trudeau’s resignation, speculation in the Canadian press suggested the Canadians could preannounce a list of US goods that will face retaliatory tariffs in the case of Trump hitting them with 25% tax on all Canadian products. Publishing this list before Trump takes office would be seen as a step in aggression and would not be taken well by either Trump and Jamieson Greer.
In China/HK, the US Defence department has added Tencent to its list of Chinese military companies operating in the US. Not a tariff as such, but this geopolitical development would be a big surprise, not just to the company (shares are -7.3%), but would be seen as an act in bad faith by the Chinese government. China themselves would be preparing for the worst when it comes to tariffs – they have not adhered to any of promises made in the prior agreements to buy certain US goods in a gesture to reduce the US trade deficit.
Trump will use that as in his negotiations, and if there is one economy that is unlikely to get much of a cushion in the upcoming trade talks, its China.
How will China respond? Depreciate the RMB, look at trade ties with other nations (we’re certainly seeing that with China-Mexico forging ties) or come back with counter tariffs on US imports.
The Washington Post reported yesterday that Trump’s aides were exploring universal tariffs only on critical imports and not on all goods – a fact that that was quickly shut down by Trump. If the WaPo are credible, and many suspect this will be the case, it ultimately could be a positive for risk in the long run. However, in the near-term, if the Canadian news comes to fruition, I think it opens the idea that we should prepare now for tit for tat retaliation, and its here where investors may start to look at gold as a hedge against this impending hawkish news flow.
So, while it all depends how hard ball each party wants to appear, it could create a new level of noise and uncertainty that could see higher market volatility and push gold through the range highs of $2726 and towards $2800.
The market is reshuffled and continues to run in a range todayGold fluctuated widely yesterday. The closing price of the daily line remained above the MA10 daily average line of 2626, and adjusted in the middle track of the daily Bollinger band. The Bollinger band of the four-hour chart gradually closed. Returning to the oscillation zone, the same is true for the hourly chart, so treat it as oscillation in the short term!
Gold continues to fluctuate in a large range, and continues to short at the high rebound in the Asian session. There is no trend market now, so don't chase it easily. Continue to short at the high rebound of gold. After gold breaks through the range, you can follow the trend.
Gold's 30-minute moving average continues to cross downward and arrange shorts. Gold rebounded at 2649 yesterday and began to fall under pressure. Gold rebounded below 2649 and continued to short at highs. This week is a data week. Gold is likely to continue to fluctuate at the beginning of the week, and then wait for the data to determine the winner.
First support: 2632, second support: 2626, third support: 2614
First resistance: 2643, second resistance: 2649, third resistance: 2659
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2614-2617
SELL: 2647-2650
Maintain neutrality, pay attention to US data todayAs of press time on Tuesday (January 7), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains a moderate recovery trend during the day, with gold prices currently around 2,639 USD/ounce. Gold prices continue to stabilize, with technical trends unchanged from previous releases.
During this trading day, US macro data will be in focus with the data mentioned below expected to create significant volatility in the short term.
Today (Tuesday), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This important employment data is expected to cause large fluctuations in gold prices this trading day.
Economists predict that there will be 7.7 million JOLT job openings in the United States in November, compared with 7.744 million in October.
The JOLTS job vacancy report was one of the labor force indicators that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen valued most when she was chair of the Federal Reserve. This index is also labor market data that the Fed is very interested in.
Additionally, on the same day, the US ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for December will be published and is expected to be 53.5, compared to the previous value of 52.1.
In terms of technical structure, OANDA:XAUUSD Still mainly accumulating activities with price activities sticking around the EMA21 line. And the cumulative sideways trend is depicted by the purple price triangle.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also sticking around 50, showing that market sentiment is also hesitant and waiting for a significant fundamental impact to create a short-term trend.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is neutral, moving sideways and accumulating with notable levels that will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,604 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2658 - 2656⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2662
→Take Profit 1 2651
↨
→Take Profit 2 2646
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2623 - 2625⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2519
→Take Profit 1 2630
↨
→Take Profit 2 2640