GOLD Update: Should I buy it?OANDA:XAUUSD continues to attract attention even as the US dollar strengthens, fueled by ongoing geopolitical and economic crises that drive demand for safe-haven assets. Prices are consolidating above previous resistance levels and are pushing toward establishing new local highs.
As for gold's price volatility, the upcoming week will feature several key US economic data releases, including employment reports and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. These updates are expected to provide investors with greater clarity on the Fed's monetary policy, especially following projections of interest rate cuts in 2025.
Regarding the gold strategy for the new week, Ben personally prioritizes buying strategies if the price remains within the wedge, targeting at least the upper boundary of the price channel. This anticipated upward move is expected to reach the level of 2690.
Gold
Today's market analysis, signal updateOn Friday, gold rose first and then fell. Although the daily chart of the big cycle is bullish, due to the rapid rise, there has been a small cycle adjustment. In my opinion, the daily chart's oscillating upward movement has not yet ended, but the short-term adjustment and correction has not yet ended, especially in the four-hour period. The price broke through the acceleration line and then suppressed and fell back. Today's rhythm is expected to be corrected first and then fell.
The lowest price of gold fell back to around 2636 and began to rise. It is also the support level of the previous 2639 vertex conversion, but I think the high point of 2665 is not yet able to break through, because there is NFP this week, and the previous market is expected to remain volatile, and the data released before the non-agricultural data is the important factor that dominates the market direction this week! Therefore, in the short term, we should first treat it with a shock idea!
Gold began to build a top structure in 30 minutes, and then gold 30 minutes on Friday rushed up and fell below the 2650 support line. Gold began to weaken, and the 30-minute moving average of gold began to turn downward. If a dead cross is formed downward, then gold will continue to fall. Gold will continue to be short under pressure at 2650 in the Asian session.
First support: 2630, second support: 2623, third support: 2610
First resistance: 2650, second resistance: 2665, third resistance: 2672
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2635-2638
SELL: 2650-2653
More signals will sent to the VIP group
GOLD → Pressure from the bears. Why are we falling?FX:XAUUSD does not react to strong support levels. The bulls, despite the positive background for them, could not keep the defense above the key structure. Weak structure on the D1 timeframe.
A complex structure is forming on the D1 indicating that the uptrend support is under pressure. That is, if this area is broken, there could be momentum in the market through capitulation. Fundamentally, the market is not reacting to the escalated situation in the middle east and eastern Europe, accepting what is happening at the moment. China has promised increased financial support for the economy and this could attract new capital into the gold market.
Markets are likely to trade cautiously as they prepare for a series of labor market data from the US later this week.
Resistance levels: 2637, 2648, 2664
Support levels: 2615, 2606, 2600
Technically, the price is inside the local ascending channel, but in the selling zone. Due to bearish pressure, the price may head down and test the 2600 area. But where to go from here? The reaction to the 2600 area after the retest will tell us.
Regards R. Linda!
Am I the only one who is waiting for a bearish trend for #gold?hello guys!
let's analyze gold together!
Double Top Formation:
A double top has been identified near the $2,675-$2,680 level, signaling a potential reversal from the bullish trend.
Broken Channel:
The previous upward channel has been broken, indicating a shift in market structure and possible bearish momentum.
Two Scenarios Outlined:
First Scenario (Blue Path): The price may consolidate or retest the $2,630-$2,640 range before resuming its downward trend toward $2,578.
Second Scenario (Red Path): A bullish retracement toward the $2,675-$2,680 resistance zone is possible, followed by a reversal and significant decline.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: $2,675-$2,680 (critical zone for the second scenario).
Support: $2,629 (short-term) and $2,578 (major support).
Outlook:
The bias appears bearish due to the broken channel and the double-top pattern. Confirmation of either scenario depends on price action near the outlined key levels.
World market forecast positive due to high demand for goldThe world gold price jumped by another $7 to $2,647 an ounce. According to market analyst Fawad Razaqzada of City Index, gold still faces many challenges in the short term, such as the strength of the greenback, rising bond yields, and weak demand from the Asian market. However, despite those challenges, the gold price target of $3,000 an ounce is still feasible. Any correction or consolidation in early 2025 could set the stage for another rally in the second half of the year.
Ms. Nicky Shiels, Head of Metals Research and Strategy at MKS PAMP, expects gold prices to trade in a fairly wide range of $2,500 to $3,200 an ounce, with the precious metal largely dependent on the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate changes related to inflation.
For now, investors still believe that a stronger US dollar and tighter monetary policy could create some headwinds for gold. However, gold remains an important asset in investors' portfolios this year. The trend of de-dollarization by central banks, complex and unpredictable geopolitics, global debt and investor demand... will ensure that gold is a safe asset diversification tool.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [January 06 - January 10]OANDA:XAUUSD are almost trading in a narrow range throughout the Christmas holiday and New Year 2025. Currently, gold prices have not yet escaped the triangle model of the H4 technical chart.
Entering 2025, three important factors can shape the price of gold. First, the big event will take place on January 20 this year when Donald Trump takes office as US President. Mr. Trump is likely to put pressure on the FED to influence the interest rate environment.
Second, Mr. Trump will heat up the trade war with other countries, especially with Canada, Mexico, Europe and China. This means economic growth could suffer and geopolitical instability could linger.
Third, we are in a period where most investors will reallocate investment flows into their portfolios. As economic and political variables are gradually changing.
In the long term, gold prices may continue to be influenced by the above factors. But in the short term this week, the market will focus on important US economic data, such as manufacturing and service PMI index; Employment indicators: ADP, NFP, unemployment rate... If US employment figures, especially NFP, increase stronger than expected, gold prices will be under pressure to adjust. On the contrary, if US employment figures continue to decline sharply, it will positively support gold prices.
📌Technically, from a short-term perspective this week, there are 2 resistance levels to pay attention to: the resistance level at 2685 and the round resistance level at 2600. In case the resistance level is broken, corresponding to the price breaking through the Downtrend line, the price will Gold will continue to maintain its upward trend to the 2720-2790 thresholds respectively. In the opposite case, if the gold price drops from the Uptrend line, we will see a scenario where the price drops back around the 2530 threshold.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,634 – 2,604 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
XAUUSD 6/1/25Coming into this week, we maintain a bullish bias on gold. Last week, we experienced a short-term shift to bearish, which was expected as we mentioned before the new year. Currently, we are focusing on the cluster of lows at the base of our most recent range. This is the area we are targeting for potential long trades this week.
Orion is indicating that we need to align with the long bias, so we will follow this direction and monitor targets and entries accordingly. Note that we currently have only two targets above. If the market creates another high before dropping into the mentioned lows, we may have more than two targets to work with, requiring us to trade within those areas.
Be mindful of the current structure. As mentioned in the EU analysis, we may form short-term lows to play off, which could make the lower areas less likely for the week’s initial move. As always, we wait for a low to be reached, then analyse the entry timeframe to determine if there’s an opportunity to participate.
Trade safely and stick to your plan.
Falling towards overlap support?XAU/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,632.46
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2,608.78
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6%^ Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 2,659.51
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
2,632.46
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Gold Technical: Key Levels and Trend Outlook for the Week
Gold Trading Lower Despite Dollar Weakness
Gold prices traded lower on Friday afternoon, even as the dollar retreated from its highest level in more than two years and Treasury yields eased.
Gold Technical Analysis
The price precisely reached our resistance level at 2665 and then dropped to the pivot line at 2636, as anticipated in the previous week's analysis.
For this week, the initial move is expected to test 2653. The price must then break 2653 to reach 2665. To move further toward 2678, a 4-hour candle close above 2665 is required.
However, if the price closes a 4-hour candle below 2636, it is likely to drop to 2623. A sustained move below 2623 could lead to a further decline toward 2603.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 2636
Resistance Levels: 2653, 2665, 2678
Support Levels: 2623, 2603, 2658
Trend Outlook
Consolidation: Between 2636 and 2653
Bullish Trend: Above 2645
Bearish Trend: Below 2636
previous idea:
GOLD: Risky Long!
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the GOLD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Xau/usd higher timeframe to lower timeframeXau/usd higher timeframe to lower timeframe
- This idea is based on educational purposes
Detailed analysis for higher time frame to lower time frame
Market currently at 2639.72 and in higher time frame 2621 is a rejected point more then 6 times
so when we move to lowest time frame things are more clearly and we see that market is moving in uptrend so we have to move and trade within trend
if market move and touched 2642 to 2645.00 area we will entered in buy trade and our first target would be 2650.00 then 2660 onwards
if market break the region which are selected and move downward we will take our first take profit at 2621.00 again it was crucial point but if it went again this point we will see the next move at 2605.00
Like and Comments on our Analysis
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral but slightly bearish if bears get follow through on Monday. Market tested the 50% of the last leg down and found more sellers than buyers. Bulls now have 3 pushed up which went nowhere as of now. We also closed right at the daily 20ema so this is as neutral as it gets. If bulls get a daily close above 2680, we can continue to 2700 and below 2650 I expect more downside to 2600/2620.
comment: Likely more neutral than anything else. 50% retracement of recent bear leg is 2680 and market stopped there on Friday. We have more room to the upside inside this bigger triangle.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2620 - 2720
bull case: Bulls want a retest of 2700 but they have tried 3 times now and price went nowhere. Friday could have been a retest of the breakout but bulls would need a very strong reversal on Monday to confirm that. Bulls don’t have much until they get above 2680 and then the upside could be limited to 2700. No matter how you put it, this is not strong buying by the bulls and nothing to get excited about.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears sold every new high at made money for 3 weeks now. They also fail to make lower lows and that is why we are in a bigger triangle with bad follow-through after every decent bull/bear bar. I think Friday was strong enough to expect a bit more downside but where do you put your stop? 2680? Very high probability market will retest it or go above before it turns again. Most bears would like to short closer to 2700.
Invalidation is above 2730.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
NZDUSD - Easiest 1000pip Trade Ever!We might be on the verge of one of the easiest trades ever.
NZDUSD is currently in a wave B correction, which appears to be a 333 WXY correction. We are currently in wave Y and expecting a breakout for the bigger wave C.
Trade Idea:
- Enter on break of trendline
- Stops below lows after trendline break
- Targets: 0.61 (500pips), 0.65 (1000pips)
Simple, right?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
HelenP. I Gold will fall to trend line and then start to growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. After looking at the chart, we can see how the price some time traded near the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and then rebounded up to 2790 points. Then the price started to decline and soon broke the resistance level, making retets, and continued to fall next. After this, the price dropped to the trend line, breaking the support level as well, but later it turned around and rose higher than this level and broke it again. Later, Gold rose to the 2715 resistance level, after which made the correction and then some time traded in consolidation, after which quickly backed up to the resistance level. Next, XAUUSD dropped to the support zone, where it reached the trend line and then rebounded up at once, but soon it fell back to the trend line. A not long time ago Gold rebounded from the trend line and started to grow, therefore I expect that XAUUSD will decline to the trend line one more time and then continue to move up next. For this reason, I set my goal at 2680 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Gold can drop from resistance line of pennant to 2595 levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Observing the chart, we can see how the price rebounded from the support line and rose to 2790 points, after which turned around and started to decline. In a short time, the price fell to the support line, breaking the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and then continued to fall next. Soon, Gold declined below the support line and even broke the 2595 level and fell to 2536 points. But later Gold turned around and made a strong impulse up to the seller zone, breaking the support level one more time, and started to trades inside pennant as well. Next, the price made a small correction and then some time traded in the range, after which in a short time rose to the seller zone back. In this area, it reached the resistance line of the pennant and then started to decline to the buyer zone, breaking the 2710 level. Later XAU some time traded near the support line of the pennant and then rebounded up to the resistance line of this pattern, which at the moment continues to trades near. For this case, I think that Gold can rebound from the resistance line and drop to the support level, exiting from the pennant. Therefore I set my TP at 2595 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2661 and a gap below at 2633. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2661
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2661 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2681
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2681 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2711
BEARISH TARGETS
2633
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2633 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2611
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2611 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2593
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2593 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2570 - 2551
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing ema5 and price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2655 and a gap below at 2629. We need ema5 to cross and lock above or below the weighted Goldturns to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2655
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2694
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2694 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2726
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2726 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2753
BEARISH TARGETS
2629
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2629 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2600
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2600 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2561
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART MID/LONG TERM UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see the daily chart update we have been trading and tracking for a while now, to give you all an overall view of the range.
As stated last week the retracement range is still providing support and we also stated that we had a candle body close above 2629 opening 2686 gap and will also need ema5 lock to further confirm this.
- This gave a nice push up last week with over 200 pips. We now also have the ema5 confirmation for the long range gap above at 2686. As long as the retracement range holds and provides support we will continue to buy dips knowing we have the gap above open.
We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops like this, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX