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Update of the Bullish/Bearish Catalysts for Gold prices________________________________________ ⚡️ Gold’s Pullback: A Reset, Not the End After peaking above $3,500/oz in April, gold’s slide back toward $3,210 marks a sharp—but not unusual—correction. What’s changed in the gold narrative? The rapid unwinding of panic bids as the Fed stays hawkish, the dollar flexes, and risk appetite returns. But beneath the surface, multiple structural drivers—old and new—are shaping gold’s next act. ________________________________________ 1. Fed “Higher for Longer” Policy Bias (9/10) Still the #1 driver. With inflation sticky and the U.S. labor market robust, the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut rates (4.25–4.50%) is pinning real yields near multi-year highs. This erodes the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, particularly for Western investors. 🦅 Watch for any dovish shift—a single Fed pivot could reignite gold fast. ________________________________________ 2. U.S. Dollar Resilience (8.5/10) The DXY recently surged above 101, buoyed by relative U.S. growth outperformance and ongoing EM weakness. Since gold is dollar-priced, a strong greenback makes gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers, crimping global demand. 💵 Sustained dollar strength could push gold closer to $3,100 unless countered by inflation or new geopolitical stress. ________________________________________ 3. Central Bank Buying & “De-Dollarization” Flows (8/10) This is the new wild card. Countries like China, India, Turkey, and Russia are accelerating gold reserves accumulation—partly to hedge against dollar-centric sanctions and diversify away from U.S. Treasuries. Q2 2025 data shows a 35% jump in net central bank purchases year-on-year. 🏦 This bid underpins the gold market even when ETFs and retail are sellers. ________________________________________ 4. U.S.–China Trade Normalization (7.5/10) The May 2025 Geneva agreement was a big de-risking event. While tariffs haven’t vanished, steady progress on tech and agriculture reduces tail risk for global trade, putting downward pressure on gold’s safe-haven premium. 🌏 Any breakdown or tariff surprise could quickly reverse this. ________________________________________ 5. Algorithmic & Quant Trading Flows (7/10) Gold’s volatility is now heavily influenced by systematic funds. CTA (commodity trading advisor) and quant-driven selling accelerated the recent drop once $3,300 was breached. This non-fundamental selling creates overshoots—but also sharp reversals on technical bounces. 🤖 Expect snapbacks when positioning reaches extremes. ________________________________________ 6. U.S.–U.K. & EU Trade Deals (6.5/10) Both deals have reduced the global uncertainty premium. While the economic impact is moderate, improved global relations have pushed capital into equities and away from gold. 🇬🇧 Keep an eye on political risk, especially if new tariffs or Brexit-related shocks re-emerge. ________________________________________ 7. India–Pakistan and Middle East Geopolitical Risks (6.5/10) Tensions have cooled, but remain a latent driver. The India–Pakistan border saw restraint in May; Iran–U.S. talks are “cautiously positive.” Any surprise flare-up, especially involving oil, can quickly restore gold’s safe-haven bid. 🕊️ Event-driven spikes likely, but not sustained unless escalation persists. ________________________________________ 8. ETF Flows, Retail & Institutional Demand (6/10) ETF inflows have slowed sharply in 2025, but central bank and Asian buying partly offset this. U.S. retail interest has faded due to higher Treasury yields, but any sign of real rates rolling over could spark new inflows. 📈 ETF demand is now more a symptom than a cause of price moves. ________________________________________ 9. Technological Demand & Jewelry Trends (5.5/10) Longer-term, gold’s use in electronics, EVs, and green tech is rising modestly (up ~3% YoY). Indian and Chinese jewelry demand—seasonally soft now—could rebound late 2025 if income and sentiment recover. 📿 Not a short-term driver, but a steady tailwind in the background. ________________________________________ 10. Fiscal Risk & U.S. Debt Sustainability (5.5/10) Rising concerns about the U.S. debt trajectory, especially if deficits widen or the U.S. nears a shutdown or downgrade, can trigger flight-to-quality bids for gold. This is not the main driver now, but is a key “black swan” risk if Treasury auctions stumble. 💣 Could move up the list rapidly on negative headlines. ________________________________________ 🌐 Other Catalysts to Watch: • Israel – Iran tensions in the Middle East – limited impact on gold prices. • Crypto Market Volatility (5/10): Periods of sharp crypto drawdowns have triggered some rotation into gold, but the correlation is inconsistent. • Chinese Real Estate Stress (5/10): Signs of further slowdown or crisis (e.g., major developer defaults) could boost gold as a defensive play in Asia. • Physical Supply Disruptions (4/10): Mine strikes, export restrictions, or transport bottlenecks can create localized price spikes, but rarely move the global market for long. ________________________________________ 🏆 2025 Gold Catalyst Rankings (with Impact Scores) Rank Catalyst Strength/10 Current Impact Direction Notes 1 Fed “Higher for Longer” Policy 9.0 Very High Bearish Key yield driver 2 U.S. Dollar Resilience 8.5 Very High Bearish Hurts non-USD demand 3 Central Bank & “De-Dollarization” Buying 8.0 High Bullish Structural support 4 U.S.–China Trade Normalization 7.5 High Bearish De-risks global trade 5 Algorithmic/Quant Trading Flows 7.0 High Bearish Magnifies volatility 6 U.S.–U.K./EU Trade Deals 6.5 Moderate Bearish Risk appetite rising 7 India–Pakistan/Mideast Geopolitics 6.5 Moderate Neutral Event risk 8 ETF, Retail & Institutional Flows 6.0 Moderate Bearish Trend follower 9 Tech/Jewelry Physical Demand 5.5 Low Bullish Seasonal uptick possible 10 U.S. Debt/Fiscal Sustainability 5.5 Low Bullish Potential tail risk 11 Crypto Market Volatility 5.0 Low Bullish Risk-off flows (sometimes) 12 China Property Crisis 5.0 Low Bullish Asian safe-haven buying 13 Physical Supply Disruptions 4.0 Very Low Bullish Rare but possible ________________________________________ 🚦Where Next for Gold? • Current price: ~$3,210/oz • Key support: $3,150/oz • Key upside triggers: A dovish Fed surprise, sharp dollar reversal, sudden geopolitical event, or central bank “buying spree.” • Risks: Extended strong dollar, yield spike, no escalation of global risks. ________________________________________ Summary Table: 2025 Gold Price Catalysts Comparison Catalyst 2024 Score 2025 Score Change Impact Direction (2025) Commentary Fed Rate Policy 9 9 – Bearish Unchanged, still dominant U.S. Dollar 8 8.5 ↑ Bearish Gained in strength Central Bank Buying 7 8 ↑ Bullish Grown in importance, especially in Asia U.S.-China Trade 7.5 7.5 – Bearish Still relevant, deal holding for now Algorithmic/Quant Flows 6 7 ↑ Bearish Systematic trading influence is rising Geopolitics (excl. Russia/Ukraine) 6 6.5 ↑ Neutral Slight increase, mostly latent risks ETF/Institutional Flows 5 6 ↑ Bearish Slower, but still influential Jewelry/Tech Demand 4.5 5.5 ↑ Bullish Tech/jewelry more important now U.S. Debt/Fiscal Risk 5 5.5 ↑ Bullish Gaining attention with deficit concerns Crypto Market Volatility 4 5 ↑ Bullish Correlation growing, but inconsistent China Property Risk N/A 5 NEW Bullish Added due to emerging Asian risk Physical Supply Disruption 3.5 4 ↑ Bullish Minor, only spikes on rare events ________________________________________ 🥇 Bottom Line: Gold’s retreat reflects a rebalancing of risk and yield, but the stage is set for sudden moves—especially if the Fed blinks, the dollar falters, or new shocks emerge. The top three catalysts (Fed, Dollar, Central Bank buying) are especially worth watching as we head into the second half of 2025.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
50
XAU/USD 4H Technical Analysis 13 June 2025Market Structure & Bias: On the 4H chart, gold has broken out of a recent sideways range and formed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This “break of structure” (BOS) through the old swing high confirms a bullish bias. Price action respects key support zones (demand areas) on retracements, suggesting underlying buying interest. The overall bias is bullish, driven by risk‐off sentiment. Support and resistance act as natural pause/reversal zones For example, a demand zone/order block around ~3390–3400 (from the prior swing low) has been tested and held, fueling the recent rally. Likewise, an imbalance (fair value gap) left below 3400 could attract buyers if price returns. We also note that a change of character (CHOCH) would occur only if price breaks below a higher-low; so far that has not happened. In short, gold’s 4H market structure is bullish (higher highs/lows) and the trend looks set to continue upward unless a strong reversal forms. Key Levels (4H): We use classic pivot points to mark critical levels (using the last 4H high, low, close). Pivot points can project future support and resistance. Based on recent swings, key levels are: Pivot: 3424 (calculated from last bar’s H/L/C) Support 1: 3413 Support 2: 3399 Support 3: 3374 Resistance 1: 3438 Resistance 2: 3449 Resistance 3: 3474 Price currently hovers just below R1. These levels align with congestion zones and Fib retracements (50–61.8% of the last $3290–3427 upswing), so expect active bidding near S1–S2 and selling around R1–R2. Intraday 1H Trade Setups Buy Zone ~3395–3405 (Bullish OB/Demand): Entry: Long on dips into the order-block/demand area near 3395–3405 (just above S1). Stop: ~3385 (≈$10 below entry zone). Targets: TP1 ≈ 3438 (Resistance 1), TP2 ≈ 3450 (near R2). Reason: This zone aligns with a prior institutional order block/demand and a 61.8% Fib retrace of the recent rally. Price has shown bounce here before, so a bullish reaction is likely. Trigger: Look for a bullish reversal candle (e.g. bullish engulfing or pin bar) on 1H in this zone, or a market structure low (MSL) turning point. A break back above the high of that candle can serve as confirmation to enter. Sell Zone ~3435–3445 (Bearish Retrace): Entry: Short near resistance around 3435–3445 (just below R1–R2). Stop: ~3455 (≈$10 above entry zone). Targets: TP1 ≈ 3413 (Support 1), TP2 ≈ 3399 (Support 2). Reason: This area is the upper end of the recent range. It contains a minor supply zone and the R1–R2 pivots. A liquidity sweep (stop-hunt) may occur above recent highs. If price loses momentum here, expect a pullback. Trigger: Watch for a bearish price action signal (e.g. a bearish engulfing candle or a double-top swing) on 1H. A break of the immediate lower low (lower than the last minor swing) would confirm a short-term change of character and signal entry. Breakout Long ~3449+: Entry: Long on a sustained break above R2 (≈3450). Confirm entry when price closes above 3449 on 1H. Stop: ~3424 (just under the Pivot). Targets: TP1 ≈ 3474 (Resistance 3), TP2 ≈ 3495+ (new highs). Reason: A clean breakout of 3450 would indicate strong bullish order flow and trigger stop-run triggers. This would be a continuation trade in line with the 4H uptrend. Trigger: A bullish candle closing above 3449 (ideally with above-average size) or a 1H break of structure (higher high over 3449) would signal entry. Takeaway: Gold remains in a bullish 4H trend; focus on buying dips into demand zones and watch for clear candlestick triggers at support/resistance.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tami512
XAUUSD H4 I Bullish ContinuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling toward our buy entry at 3403.57, which is a pullback support. Our take profit will be at 3472, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, adding a significant level for a potential bearish reversal. The stop loss will be placed at 3347.94, an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:XAUUSDLong
by Tradu
XAUUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 3472.00, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, adding a significant level for a potential bearish reversal Our take profit will be at 3403.57, a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 2529.80, above the 127.2% Fib extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:XAUUSDShort
by Tradu
1
Bullislh continuation?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection. Pivot: 3,374.04 1st Support: 3,348.45 1st Resistance: 3,414.78 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ICmarkets
Could the Gold reverse from here?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 3,390.28 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 3,426.28 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 3,343.57 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
CHFJPY - How To Enter This MASSIVE 1700pip Swing Trade!As promised - here’s the lower timeframe breakdown after hitting 100+ likes. We’re in wave 5, currently moving cleanly into the swing zone. Since wave 5 typically forms 5 subwaves, all we needed was to connect points 2 and 4 to draw our entry trendline. Trade Idea: - Entry on break of the orange trendline - Stops above recent highs after entry - Aggressive option: Enter inside the sell zone with stops above invalidation Targets: - TP1: 165.00 (≈1300 pips) - TP2: 161.50 (≈1700 pips) - Optional: Leave a runner for the longer swing move Scroll down for the full 4H breakdown.
by WicktatorFX
11
CHFJPY - 1700 Pip Reversal Incoming!The last time we looked at CHFJPY was back in October 2024, where we forecasted a large ABC correction. Fast forward to now - that correction is nearly complete! We're currently in the 5th subwave of wave C, and everything points toward a massive drop setting up. We expect a move of at least 1500 pips. On the Daily timeframe, structure is clear: - Clean 5-3-5 ABC correction - Price is approaching a key sell zone - A clear entry trendline is in place — couldn’t ask for a cleaner setup Trade Idea: - Watch for rejection within the sell zone - Aggressive entry: Inside sell zone with stops above invalidation - Conservative entry: On break of trendline, stops above the break candle Targets: TP1: 165.00 (≈1300 pips) TP2: 161.50 (≈1700 pips) Optional: Leave a runner for a long-term swing Let me know what you think in the comments. See below for our last VIP setup for CHFJPY which played out perfectly. 1000pips secured! Good luck and as always, trade safe!
by WicktatorFX
6
Iran tensions rise: a setup brewing for gold and oil Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran might fuel safe-haven demand for gold. A break above $3,403 might open the door for a test of the May high at $3,437. However, price action over the last two sessions potentially indicates that buyers are reluctant to drive spot prices above $3,400. At the same time, analysts are suggesting that oil could climb toward $120 if Israel takes military action against Iran. “I don’t want to say it’s imminent, but it looks like something that could very well happen,” President Trump said during a White House event. Meanwhile, cooler-than-expected US CPI and PPI prints have potentially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by September, with a second cut possibly following before year-end.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
4
XAUUSD Daily Plan — June 13, 2025 By GoldFxMinds👋 Hello traders, and welcome to your full preparation for tomorrow’s gold session. Gold continues to respect its structural map while liquidity traps remain active on both sides of the range. We’ve seen clean sweeps and fast reactions this week, but tomorrow brings a new catalyst: key U.S. data combined with fresh geopolitical tensions that may fuel additional volatility before the weekly close. 🌐 MACRO & GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK: 📊 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations are scheduled tomorrow: Consumer Sentiment ➔ 52.2 Inflation Expectations ➔ 6.6% These data points often trigger sharp USD moves and liquidity grabs. 🌍 Geopolitical tension has increased as President Trump authorized the evacuation of U.S. personnel from several Middle East locations due to rising threats in the region, particularly concerning the Iran nuclear situation. This development triggered sharp moves across commodities, with oil rallying strongly. Gold remains well-supported in this environment as global risk sentiment deteriorates. Traders should expect elevated intraday volatility and potential liquidity sweeps on both sides as markets digest these developments. 🔎 The combination of macro data and geopolitical risk creates highly reactive conditions where liquidity hunts may precede any clear directional moves. 🔎 STRUCTURE OVERVIEW: Price remains inside premium territory after recent bullish expansions. Liquidity has already been taken above and below earlier this week, but additional traps may unfold before Friday’s close. Larger structure remains bullish while short-term supply zones may attract quick inducements. Tomorrow's flow will likely begin with manipulation during or after news, before real momentum develops. 🎯 BIAS Main bias: Controlled bullish, but highly reactive inside premium. As long as price holds above 3340, bulls remain in control on higher timeframe. However, premium zones above 3395 may act as liquidity traps, inviting fast selloffs after inducements. Best opportunities likely to come from either: Controlled retracement into buy zones for continuation higher. Fast spikes into premium traps for short-term sell opportunities. Patience will be critical as both news and geopolitical headlines may trigger manipulations before real trend unfolds. 🔑 KEY ZONES TO WATCH: BUY ZONES 🔵 3368 - 3360 Intraday pullback zone. Look for minor liquidity dips followed by bullish rejection. Targets: 3390 → 3405. 🔵 3348 - 3340 Deeper liquidity pocket into H4 imbalance and OB. Engage only after strong downside sweep with sharp bullish reaction. Targets: 3380 → 3396. 🔵 3325 - 3312 Extreme HTF liquidity zone. Valid only if aggressive liquidation occurs into deeper discount. Targets: 3360 → 3380. SELL ZONES 🔴 3398 - 3405 First premium inducement area. Look for fast spikes with M15 bearish rejection candles. Targets: 3370 → 3348. 🔴 3412 - 3420 Secondary premium trap zone. Valid only after upside wick rejection. Targets: 3385 → 3355. 🔴 3435 - 3445 Maximum stop-hunt exhaustion zone. Only valid if price aggressively squeezes into final liquidity. Targets: 3390 → 3360. ⚠ TRADING REMINDER: Friday’s session will likely be driven by both news and geopolitical headlines. Let liquidity play out inside the zones, wait for clear rejection signals, and execute with full confirmation. No chasing — sniper discipline only. 🎯 💎 Hit that 🚀 if you found this plan helpful. 👉 Feel free to follow for daily gold plans and share your thoughts in the comments. We remain disciplined. We trade structure. 🌙 Rest well tonight — tomorrow we execute with precision and control. — GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
The latest gold trend analysis strategy on June 12: Analysis of key factors Influence of CPI data The core CPI in the United States in May only increased by 0.1%, which was lower than expected, indicating that inflation slowed down, and strengthened the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut (it is now expected to cut interest rates by 77 basis points in the next year). After the data was released, gold rose to $3,360/ounce in the short term, and the US dollar index plunged, reflecting the rise in risk aversion. However, we need to be vigilant about the subsequent market's revision of inflation expectations, especially if the Fed releases hawkish signals at the June interest rate meeting. Key technical points Resistance: 3360-3363 (intraday high), 3380-3382 (previous high pressure). Support: 3300-3310 (short-term psychological barrier), 3293 (recent low). Daily signal: The 5-day moving average crosses the 10-day moving average, but the gold price temporarily stands on the 5-day moving average, forming a price divergence, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of a high and fall. Market sentiment Geopolitics (trade friction, central bank gold purchases) still supports the long-term bullish logic of gold, but the short-term technical side shows that the bullish momentum is insufficient, and there is strong resistance above 3350. Operation strategy suggestions Short-term trading Sell short order strategy: If the gold price rebounds to the 3365-3370 range and is blocked (especially if there is a long upper shadow or the 1-hour chart closes negative), you can short with a light position, with a target of 3330-3310 and a stop loss of 3385. Buy long order strategy: If it pulls back to 3300-3310 and stabilizes (such as closing a cross star or a positive line rebound), you can short-term long, with a target of 3330-3350 and a stop loss of 3290. Trend tracking Breakthrough direction confirmation: If it effectively breaks through 3382, it may open up space to rise to 3400; if it falls below 3293, it will go down to the support of 3270-3250. Be cautious in following orders: Currently in the range of shocks (3293-3360), avoid blindly following before breaking through the previous high/low. Risk Warning Event Risk: Pay attention to the results of the US Treasury auction. Weak demand may further boost gold safe-haven buying. Technical Correction: If the daily MACD forms a bottom divergence, it may trigger a larger rebound, which needs to be judged in conjunction with the K-line pattern. Summary: The main focus during the day is high-altitude, and short orders are entered after the key resistance level of 3365-3370 is under pressure. If it quickly breaks below 3330, positions can be increased; long orders are limited to light positions at the support level. Strictly stop loss and wait for trend-following opportunities after the range breaks.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Golden_Line_FX
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Another PITASTIC day on the charts, with our analysis playing out perfectly. Yesterday after completing the target at 3352, we stated that we’ll be watching for a confirmed cross and lock above 3352 for a continuation. We got the cross and lock above 3352 opening 3388. - 3388 was hit perfectly today completing this target. We will now look for a ema5 cross and lock above 3388 for a continuation. If price fails to lock above, we could see rejections leading back into the lower Goldturns, where we’ll look for support and bounce. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3318 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3318 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3352 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3352 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3388 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3388 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3428 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3428 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3478 BEARISH TARGETS 3281 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3281 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3254 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3254 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3210 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3210 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3179 3146 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
5
Gold Correction = Bearish Divergence + Wedge + Zigzag CompleteGold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) attacked the Resistance zone($3,387-$3,357) today after the release of the US CPI indices . Although the figures seemed to be in gold's favor, traders still seem to be determined to continue the price correction. In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Gold has managed to complete the Zigzag Correction. We should wait for the next 5 down waves . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , Gold appears to have successfully formed a Rising Wedge Pattern . I expect Gold to drop to at least $3,296 AFTER breaking the lower line of the Rising Wedge Pattern . Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $3,380 Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
32
Gold may rise due to CPI and falling dollarMay CPI in the US rose by 2.4% - just below the forecast of 2.5%. This reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut despite continued pressure from tariffs. The dollar is weakening, gold may gain in this situation Gold is forming an upward structure. The fundamental background is changing and moving to the side of gold. Before the rise there may be a liquidity grab from below Price is in consolidation. If trading shifts to the upper half of the current range, then a breakout and continued growth can be considered in this case
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AndeWave
15
XAUUSD Video Analysis Brief – Weekly Forecast Summary (2025)This video summarizes the key scenarios and technical outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe, integrating both Fibonacci-based projections and macro fundamentals. Core Setup Gold is currently positioned near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (~$3,276). A breakout toward $3,500 is possible before a potential corrective move. Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Gold breaks above $3,435 → rallies to $4300 → continues toward major Fibonacci targets: TP: $4,320, which is the Fibonacci level 261.8% Scenario 2: Correction First Gold fails to hold above $3,435 → triggers a healthy correction to: TP1: $2,920 TP2: $2,650 If support 161.8% level holds in the correction zone, a renewed bullish phase is expected. Macro Alignment Central bank gold buying (notably BRICS) supports the long-term bid. Fed policy leaning dovish → tailwinds for gold. Inverse correlation with DXY: DXY below 98.95 → bullish for gold DXY above 100 → signals correction Effect on Altcoins If correction is risk-on driven, capital may rotate into altcoins. If triggered by macro stress or USD strength, alts may fall alongside gold. This analysis offers a multi-scenario framework to navigate the next major moves in gold, with key levels to watch for traders, investors, and macro analysts alike.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BitonGroup
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-12: BaseRally In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the markets may attempt to identify a base and move higher (rally) off that base level. Given the overnight price activity, I suggest the process of identifying the base level could prompt a deeper early decline in price - possibly attempting to retest 595-597 lows before finding support and attempting to rally. As I've been warning over the past few weeks/months, I'm still seeing the Excess Phase Peak pattern playing out as a Flag Termination - rolling into a downtrend and attempting to move back towards the $480 lows as a real possibility. I've been warning and watching for the breakdown in trend - but we've not seen it yet. Thus, we are still BULLISH until we get a confirmation of a solid breakdown. That would be a move below the 580-585 level at this point. We need to see some type of solid breakdown in price, breaking away from the FLAG setup and moving downward, before I could confidently suggest the Flag Breakdown has happened. Gold and Silver are making a big move higher. Gold is finally starting to move back above $3400 and I believe watching Silver, Gold, & Platinum rally suggests FEAR is elevating as we move into the end of June. I still believe Gold has a chance to rally above $4k before the end of June. We'll see if it happens. BTCUSD is moving into a DUAL-EPP pattern. This is very interesting. Watch the video as I highlight why this could prompt a dual-stage EPP breakdown in Bitcoin over the next 20 to 50+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
XAUUSD: Strategy and Analysis for June 12Gold technical analysis Daily chart resistance: 3400-3420, support: 3310 Four-hour chart resistance: 3400, support: 3325 One-hour chart resistance: 3385, support: 3340. Spot gold soared after the release of CPI as investors responded to optimistic inflation data. Trump's interest rate cut speech restored the confidence of gold bulls, but with the strong pressure of 3380 above, the market fell again, and the frequency of gold long and short switching accelerated, verifying the daily level of shock. From a technical point of view, although the daily line has not risen continuously, there is a very obvious feature of the daily cycle, that is, the middle track of Bollinger has not broken, and multiple attempts have not changed this technical point. This is the support point for the short-term retracement and the defense point for the long-term rise. If the NY market stands firm at 3380, it is expected to rise to the 3410 US dollar line. The short-term key support position below is around 3345, and it will be short-term bearish only after it falls below. Personally, I suggest that you give priority to buying in the NY market. Buy: 3380near SL:3375 Buy: 3345near SL:3340
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
How Gold Could Be Affected by Possible Iran Conflict? Gold begins the new day on a bullish note following escalating developments in the Middle East. Yesterday, markets were focused on the US–China deal. Although an agreement was reached, tariffs but overall trade tensions remain elevated. Combined with the lower-than-expected core CPI, gold mostly moved sideways, apart from intraday noise. However, this could change in the days ahead. US–Iran nuclear negotiations appear to be stalling. A new round of talks is scheduled for Sunday, June 15. The negative newsflow escalated with Iran’s defense minister warned that US bases in the region could be targeted if conflict breaks out. US ordered all non-essential personnel to evacuate and approved the voluntary departure of military family members from the region. Simultaneously, reports surfaced that "Israel is ready to strike Iran." The negative newsflow continued today. The International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution declaring Iran non-compliant with its international obligations. In retaliation, Iran announced it would build a new uranium enrichment facility at a hidden and secure location and unveiled plans for new military drills. The timing of this escalation raises the risk of direct conflict. Netanyahu’s government is facing collapse, with the possibility of new elections looming. At the same time, Iran is nearing nuclear weapons capability. While Trump is more openly supportive of Israel than Biden, he is reluctant to involve the US in any direct or indirect conflict. This dynamic raises the chances of an Israeli strike on Iran. Adding to the tension is the upcoming July 9 deadline for tariffs. Trump intends to send unilateral tariff agreements to trade partners with a “take it or leave it” approach. This could sharply increase trade tensions and further support gold prices. Today's news flow is heavily bullish for gold, and the technical outlook aligns with it. The triangle formation has broken, and gold has retested the upper boundary, gaining momentum from that level. If current risk levels remain elevated, especially if multiple strikes on Iran occur, a medium-term move above 3600 could begin. Despite the strong bullish setup, we are in a market where sentiment can shift in minutes, with major news emerging almost daily. In this environment, it's crucial to define key levels and indicators for risk management. At the moment, the 50-day EMA appears to be holding well as a support level. This moving average could be the final line that determines the medium-term direction for gold. If it breaks, the bullish outlook may no longer be valid.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ftdsystem