Gold
World gold prices slightly decreased as the USD increasedHowever, the precious metal is under some pressure as the dollar index rose sharply and US Treasury yields rose slightly.
The Conference Board reported on Monday that its US consumer confidence index fell to 104.7, down from a revised 112.8 in November. The reading was weaker than expected, with economists predicting the index would be largely unchanged.
“Expectations that consumer confidence would continue to recover were not realized in December, as the index fell back to its two-year average,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.
Gold is struggling to find its way amid the holiday lull, said James Hyerczyk, an analyst at FX Empire.
“The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and forecast of fewer rate cuts in 2025 are keeping gold under pressure. The precious metal will face key support tests during the holiday week
GOLD → Short to Medium-Term OutlookDear Traders, Ben here!
Recently, gold has been struggling to sustain its peak at $2,633. The bullish momentum for gold has been hindered by several factors, including the Fed's anticipated slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts moving forward.
On the 1H chart, although the uptrend remains supported and the parallel channel has been broken, there are signs of a potential top forming around $2,633. The current support level stands at approximately $2,618. Should this level be breached, it could drive gold into a deeper decline, potentially reaching $2,603.
GOLD trading liquidity is low during the Christmas holidayAmid sluggish trading during the holiday season, OANDA:XAUUSD decreased slightly, dragged down by the strength of the US Dollar and high US Treasury bond yields. And the market needs to wait for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve's 2025 monetary policy.
Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, this signaled fewer rate cuts in 2025, sending gold prices to their lowest since mid-month 11 last week.
While non-yielding gold benefits from the low interest rate environment, the market will need to readjust expectations for the year ahead.
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 have weighed on gold prices, and gold will face pressure during the holiday week.
Interest rate cuts initially boosted gold prices, but the Fed's forecast of only two rate cuts by 2025 (down from four in September) sparked a sell-off that sent gold prices to lows. lowest since mid-November.
With economic data limited this week due to the Christmas holiday, gold prices are expected to remain in a tight range. Liquidity remains low, reducing volatility and keeping price action subdued.
Gold has hit multiple record highs this year and is up 27% year to date, its best annual gain since 2010, thanks to strong central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and monetary policy monetary easing by major banks.
President-elect Donald Trump will take office on January 20. The market is about to return to trading in a Donald Trump environment, we cannot forget the trading period when he was in office, how the market fluctuated with his emotions on each line.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to maintain activity below the confluence resistance area noted by readers in yesterday's publication at the upper price channel edge and the 0.618% Fibonacci level, to maintain the trend. main discount.
While the recovery has been limited, gold is also trading above the $2,613 technical level, and gold could fall a bit further with a target of around $2,591 as it is sold below $2,613.
The relative strength index (RSI) is operating below 50, which should be considered a negative signal for the trend of gold prices.
During the day, as long as gold remains below the EMA21, the upper price channel edge and the 0.618% Fibonacci, it remains inclined towards a bearish outlook with notable technical points listed as follows.
Support: 2,613 – 2,600 – 2,591USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,643USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2650
→Take Profit 1 2639
↨
→Take Profit 2 2634
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2590
→Take Profit 1 2601
↨
→Take Profit 2 2606
XAUUSD: 23/12 Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2660, support below 2580
Four-hour resistance 2650, support below 2600
Gold operation suggestions: Last Friday, the overall technical side of gold ushered in a wide range of long and short shocks. After the continuous decline and plunge on Thursday, the previous day, breaking the 2600 mark, it rebounded slightly throughout the day on Friday. It ushered in an accelerated high breakthrough before and after the US market and stood above the 2610 mark to continue the bullish rebound. It closed near 2622 last Friday. Today, gold opened in the Asian session and was not strong. It began to fluctuate. Gold has not had a unilateral market for the time being.
From the 4-hour analysis, today's short-term support below is around 2627, focusing on the 2600 first-line support, and the upper pressure is around 2650-60. It is bullish above the 2627 daily level long-short watershed. Because Christmas is coming soon, gold can be bought on dips.
BUY:2627near
BUY:2622near
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
GOLD recovered quite strongly, falling after FOMCOn the Asian market today (Thursday, December 19), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered strongly after a sharp decline in the previous trading day. Gold price reached its highest level at the time of writing at 2,618 USD/ounce, an increase of nearly 30 USD during the day.
The market will next receive US economic data, including final third-quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims.
Market attention will then turn to Friday's release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which will boost the U.S.'s copper performance. US Dollar and gold in the short term.
FOMC
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected and predicted less policy easing in 2025. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the threshold for the next rate cut could be higher, which sent the US Dollar and US Treasury yields soaring, while at the same time, Gold fell more than 2% to a one-month low in trading on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates for a third straight time on Wednesday, but lowered their forecast for the number of rate cuts next year, signaling they are increasingly cautious about being able to reduce spending. How quickly does the loan cost?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 on Wednesday to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against, in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged.
In the FOMC policy statement, Fed officials noted that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. Labor market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low. Inflation has made progress toward the committee's 2% target but remains high.
The new Dotplot chart shows some officials expect fewer interest rate cuts next year than they estimated just a few months ago. Fed officials currently expect the benchmark interest rate to be between 3.75% - 4% by the end of 2025, which, according to the median estimate, would mean two rate cuts of 25 points each. basic.
Jerome Powell
The Fed will cut interest rates only twice next year amid rising inflation, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, a forecast consistent with Trump's wait-and-see approach when he returned to the White House in January.
Powell said Fed policymakers want to see more progress in reducing inflation when considering future rate-cutting strategies.
US federal funds rate futures have reflected that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at its policy meeting on January 28-29 next year.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Thus, gold has enough conditions to decrease in price after falling below the 0.618% Fibonacci level and bringing price activity back below the EMA21 moving average, with a sudden impact from fundamental factors.
In the short term, although gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,591, which was the bearish target noted by previous readers, it could still continue to decline further with a target around $2,538. . When the Relative Strength Index dropped below the 50 mark and was quite far from the oversold area, it showed that there is still plenty of room for price decline ahead.
During the day, gold price increases as long as they do not surpass the 0.618% Fibonacci level and EMA21 should only be considered short-term recovery.
Along with that, the downward trend in gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD
Resistance: 2,624 – 2,634USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2635 - 2633⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2639
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2623
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2549 - 2551⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2546
→Take Profit 1 2556
↨
→Take Profit 2 2561
XAUUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 2620.44, which is a pullback resistance aligning with a 50% FIbo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 2600, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 2636.34, a pullback resistance level.
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Potential bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 2,626.87
1st Support: 2,585.55
1st Resistance: 2,664.92
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GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out, as analysed.
We started the day with our Bullish target hit at 2629 with no cross and lock above confirming the rejection.
We are now seeing price head towards the bearish gap below. We are looking for price to stay supported above this level to continue to use our smaller timeframes for entries to buy dips, unless we see a cross and lock below 2600, in which case the lower range will open up.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2629 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2629 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2655
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2694
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2694 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2726
BEARISH TARGETS
2600
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2600 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2561
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2561 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2518 - 2486
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
$XAUUSD #XAUUSD GOLD LONGS MONDAY post NYSE 12/23/2024 been intraday bullish on gold eyeing this 2610 level post NYSE open sellside this morning looking to play longs targeting 2620/2625 intraday and potentially 2630+ if we get a big move with some pre Christmas volume my invalidation is around 2607 and i will stop out and take the loss if we break down 2610 into 2608/2607 if we take out the low then fly I'll be mad but such is life
Definitely not financial advice
Trade at your own risk
Be safe much love and happy Holidays
Just going to be using TradingView more often as a personal journal going into the New Year
GOLD (xauusd): it is bearish now!hello guys.
let's make this analysis a simple one!
as you can see gold touched the upper S&D zone perfectly and at the same time touched the top line of the channel!
now the midline of the channel is broken too!
so we can consider a downward movement at least until the bottom line of channel
GOLD What Next? BUY!
My dear subscribers,
GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 2603.3 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 2632.7
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XAUUSD - 15m | SELL SELLSimple trading - Wyckoff Event
This is an extremely short-term pattern, and there is not much to explain here. Other than this, the pattern/event happens when the market makes a big dip and starts to consolidate. AKA "accumulation phase"
Expect the market to fall back down to the previous support area 2595-2585. After this fall the market should reject support and continue its bullish trend to ATH
Gold retreats from weakness
The price of gold is near the downward trend line on the daily chart and has encountered obvious resistance many times, forming a strong suppression zone. The price trend has gradually narrowed to form a symmetrical triangle, which usually indicates that a breakthrough is coming, although the direction is still uncertain, so we need to pay attention to the specific direction of the breakthrough.
In the short term, the price has rebounded near the lower track (support line) of the triangle many times, with recent lows of 2539.37 and 2583.61, indicating that the support below is strong. The previous adjustment range (2635-2720) still constitutes pressure, and the current price is below the range.
The current price is about 2619.46, slightly below the key resistance of 2635, and is suppressed by the downward trend line. If the 2635 resistance is broken and stabilized, it may test the upper track of the triangle and further explore near 2720. On the contrary, if it falls below the 2580 support line, gold may continue its downward trend and test lower levels.
Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait for the breakthrough signal of the triangle pattern. In the short term, we can pay attention to the rebound pressure in the 2625-2630 area. If it weakens, we can consider placing short orders.
In short, the gold market is at a critical decision point, and we need to pay close attention to the price trend and market sentiment changes in the next few trading days.
If you have different opinions, please leave a message to share. If the analysis helps your trading, please like it to support it.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-23: BreakAway PatternToday's pattern is a Break Away pattern.
I'm not expecting much to happen just before Christmas, but this is when surprises may happen.
If you have not already protected your capital - now is the time to do it (almost too late at this point).
You should be prepared for anything that happens and move into a position of safety related to the holidays.
Remember, the markets will always be here. Get through the holidays and get busy trying to enjoy your life.
I suspect the markets will stay very flat over the next 3 to 5+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold Analysis: Key Levels for Reversal (Dec 23, 2024)Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today, we will analyze the Gold chart.
Daily Chart Analysis
Gold has shown a steady upward trend since 2017, forming consistent frames and rising in a stepwise manner. However, even within this long-term uptrend, the potential for both corrections and rebounds exists, which requires careful monitoring and strategic responses.
Currently, in the red box zone, we observe the following:
The moving averages have not yet formed a death cross, but Gold is facing resistance below both the 20-day and 60-day moving averages on the daily chart.
Additionally, the Ichimoku Cloud is acting as resistance, which is unusual compared to its usual supportive role.
The last time the Ichimoku Cloud acted as resistance was back in February 2024, making this resistance the first in nearly 10 months.
The key support level to watch is 2596.7, which served as last week’s support.
However, the possibility of a bearish scenario seems higher for the following reason:
The Lagging Span (Chikou Span), currently within the green box zone, is at risk of breaking below the candlesticks. Unless a strong rebound occurs this week, the Lagging Span may pierce through the candles, leading to additional resistance and increasing the likelihood of Gold breaking below 2596.7.
If 2596.7 is breached, the next support level is 2541.5.
While the lower limit of the bearish frame remains uncertain, the orange box zone represents the next key area to monitor. Depending on the strength of the selling pressure, Gold could potentially test the upper boundary of the orange box.
Short-Term Rebound Levels
Where can we expect a short-term rebound?
The key level to watch is the 2656.2 breakout.
After a strong bearish candlestick appeared, Gold established a short-term frame between 2656.2 and 2596.7 on the 1-hour chart. While some rebound attempts followed, Gold has failed to break above the previous high from before the bearish candle appeared. As a result, it remains outside the orange box frame.
A breakout above 2656.2 would signify entry into the lower part of the orange box frame, potentially leading to a temporary rebound.
For a complete trend reversal, Gold must break above the green box zone, which represents the long-term downtrend line.
Conclusion
Gold has shown consistent upward trends over the years, but no market can sustain perpetual growth without facing corrections. The current technical indicators suggest a strong possibility of a downward adjustment in the short term. While a temporary rebound could occur above the 2656.2 level, a failure to maintain key support at 2596.7 may lead to further declines toward 2541.5 or even the lower bounds of the orange zone.
As always, markets move in cycles. It is important to adapt to changing dynamics and remain prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios. Patience and discipline are key—profitable opportunities always arise for those who wait for the right moment.
If this analysis has been helpful, please like, follow, and share your thoughts in the comments!
XAUUSD Accumulation almost over. Strong rally expected to $3000.XAUUSD (Gold) is having the market worried lately as it hasn't made a new High since October 30. Instead it has been consolidating since the November 14 Low and even broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last week.
This is far from alarming though, as the long-term pattern remains a Channel Up since the October 06 2023 bottom and in fact the current level presents a strong long-term buy opportunity as a Higher Low formation of the pattern.
As you can see, each of the 3 Bullish Legs of the Channel Up have rallied by around +20% but first they consolidated after first breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 1 month. Even the RSI sequences between their fractals are identical.
As a result, we believe that Gold may start the new Bullish Leg (4th) as early as late this week or next one and rally by at least +18.65% (rise of Bullish Leg 1), targeting $3000.
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