GOLD XAUUSD – SNIPER PLAN 2 APRIL 2025👇
🦁 GOLD XAUUSD – SNIPER PLAN 2 APRIL 2025 📆
📍 Macro & Political Context
🗞️ Geopolitical Tension: Ongoing war in Ukraine + fresh tariff threats from Trump are sparking investor fear. Safe-haven flows into gold continue.
💰 Fundamentals: Inflationary fears remain strong. Market eyes the US NFP later this week. Fed is silent... too silent. 👀
🌍 Central banks are still buying gold – clear sign of institutional appetite.
🔍 Market Structure Overview
Trend: Bullish HTF ✅
Current Price: $3,113
All-Time High: $3,148 (Reached recently – likely liquidity swept!)
Last Valid BOS: H1 and H4 both show bullish structure, but a correction is brewing. 🍃
📊 Key Technical Zones & Confluences
🔻 Sell-Side Liquidity Below
📌 $3,100 – Clear liquidity pool (equal lows + psychological level)
🔥 Below $3,100 to $3,085 – Strong imbalance zone + unmitigated FVG
🧲 Expectation: Price may grab liquidity here before next leg up
🔷 Imbalance + Discount Zone
📉 $3,085–$3,095 – Massive H1/H4 imbalance. Could be a POI if price breaks $3,100
🧱 Valid Demand OB (H1) inside this zone + FIBO 61.8% retracement from last impulse
🔺 Premium Rejection
🧱 H1/H4 OB near $3,135–$3,145 = Price sharply rejected = probable redistribution zone
✂️ This was also the weekly high, which got swept = liquidity taken
🎯 Plan of Action
🟢 Scenario 1: Long Entry from Discount Zone
"Let them take the liquidity, we take the reversal!" 💸
Entry Zone: $3,085 – $3,095
Confluence:
Valid H1 OB (confirmed with PA)
Imbalance zone
FIBO 61.8% + structure break
Sell-side liquidity sweep from $3,100
Confirmation: M15 CHoCH + Bullish engulfing or low volume sweep
SL: Below $3,078
TP1: $3,130
TP2: $3,145
TP3: $3,150 (liquidity magnet again)
🔴 Scenario 2: Short if Price Pushes Back to $3,140+
Catch the premium short 🧨
Entry Zone: $3,140 – $3,148
Confluence:
All-time high sweep (liquidity trap)
HTF OB rejection
Weakness shown on M15
Confirmation: M5-M15 CHoCH + engulfing
SL: Above $3,155
TP1: $3,125
TP2: $3,100
TP3: $3,085
🧠 Final Notes
📌 Be reactive, not predictive – wait for PA confirmation at POIs
📰 Watch news – especially unexpected geopolitical catalysts or Fed surprise
🧘♂️ Stick to risk management. At ATHs, volatility is high and manipulation common.
👉 If this breakdown helped you, don’t forget to FOLLOW for more sniper setups and smash that ❤️ LIKE button to show some love!
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Gold
XAUUSD | Sniper Entry Zones Ready – Eyes on 3145 & 3086 Reactio🔍 Daily Bias: Neutral with Bearish Intraday Tilt
Price is reacting to a previously unmitigated zone and potentially retesting a premium area, suggesting sell-side interest may return before any bullish continuation.
🧠 Key Context from Your Marked Chart
✅ Marked Sell/Retest Zone @ 3135–3145:
Clearly defined premium zone with imbalance and prior bearish reaction — confluence with OB + FVG, potential sniper entry for shorts.
✅ Unmitigated OB @ 3086–3095:
Valid demand zone where price bounced aggressively — still active liquidity + FVG.
✅ Major Imbalance Below @ 3054–3040 & 3040–3029:
Heavy drawdown target area. If price breaks 3086, expect it to fill imbalance and potentially bounce at 3040 or deeper around 3029.
🔽 Sell Scenarios
🟥 Sell #1 — Retest of Supply Sniper Entry
Entry Zone: 3135–3145
Confluences: Valid OB, FVG, Premium, Bearish PA from last touch
Target: 3086, then 3054–3040 imbalance zone
RSI: Check for overbought on M15–H1
🎯 "Classic sniper setup — get in, get out. No overthinking required."
🟥 Sell #2 — Break and Retest Below 3086
Trigger: Bearish close below 3086 + BOS on M15
Retest Entry: 3086 zone from below
Target: 3054 (first FVG), then 3029
EMAs: 5/21/50 flip short on M15 for confirmation
🟩 Buy Scenarios
🟩 Buy #1 — Bounce from 3086–3095 (Unmitigated OB)
Entry: Clean reaction + bullish PA in zone
Target: 3135 retest, partials at 3114
Sniper Confluence: BOS on M5/M15 + RSI divergence
🟩 Buy #2 — Deep Bounce from 3040 or 3029 Imbalance Zone
Entry: Only on strong PA confirmation (no early knives)
Target: 3086 first, 3135 secondary
RSI + EMA: Look for EMA 100–200 confluence, bullish divergence on RSI M15/M30
🧾 Technical Confluences Summary
✅ SMC: BOS + CHoCH present across M15–H1
✅ FVG: 3135–3145 (upper), 3054–3040 (lower)
✅ GAPS: Visible in 3054–3029 zone
✅ LIQUIDITY: Above 3145 + below 3029
✅ OB VALID: 3086–3095 still unmitigated
✅ RSI: Overbought earlier, neutral now. Watch intraday shifts.
✅ EMA Clusters:
EMA 5/21 flat after rebound
EMA 50/100 just below 3100
EMA 200 near 3050–3040 (high confluence for bounce)
⚠️ News & Fundamentals
Trump conference added USD volatility, but gold didn’t rally — watch for Fed speakers & JOLTS data tomorrow.
If dollar strengthens intraday again → watch sell setups more closely.
🧨 TradingView Title Suggestion:
“🎯 XAUUSD | Sniper Entry Zones Ready – Eyes on 3145 & 3086 Reactions!”
Market Update (No Buy/Sell Bias)🧠 Structural Recap: Why Gold Did What It Did
🔄 Mitigation & Reaction Zones Review
✅ Premium Supply Zone @ 3144–3160 (H1-H4)
— Price tapped into this key premium area and sharply rejected it. This indicates a successful mitigation of that supply zone.
— This zone previously aligned with the weak high and premium structure, adding to its weight.
🟦 Mid-Range FVGs @ 3120–3130 (H1)
— This area acted as the bounce point today after price wicked down aggressively.
— The strong wick from 3086–3144 confirms buyer interest post-news, filling imbalance and mitigating prior demand (on H1).
🟫 Mitigated Demand Zone @ 3086–3096 (H1-H4)
— This demand zone was pierced and fully tapped. We saw a textbook bounce with strong reaction, suggesting the zone is now mitigated.
— A notable EQ + strong candle from this zone created bullish displacement.
🔵 Unmitigated Discount Demand @ 3054–3080 (H4)
— This remains a key untouched demand. Price wicked close to it but didn’t tap.
— If we get another push down, this is still valid and unmitigated.
🧱 Below 3050: Unmitigated Macro Zone (D1)
— The large OB/FVG combo around 2970–3030 still hasn’t been mitigated. This remains untouched liquidity in a deeper pullback.
📰 News Review — April 3, 2025
Trump’s Conference Commentary
— Hawkish rhetoric around economic strategy but no clear monetary focus.
— Mixed signals caused initial DXY strength, but later market corrected.
US Jobless Claims & ISM Services PMI
— Slightly worse-than-expected numbers, showing cooling economy signs.
— This supported XAU recovery post-drop as rate hike sentiment weakened.
Geopolitical Noise (Middle East)
— Continued tensions are keeping safe-haven demand intact, especially below 3100.
🧠 TL;DR
Zones like 3144–3160 and 3086–3096 are now mitigated.
3054–3080 and 2970–3030 remain unmitigated, future bounce areas.
Today’s volatility was news-driven, but liquidity still sits lower.
We’re currently in mid-mitigation flow, with the market respecting PA zones well.
Non-Farm Payrolls – April 4: The key market driver!On Friday, April 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM EET, the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This figure reflects the change in the number of jobs in the non-farm sector and is a crucial indicator of economic health. Strong numbers suggest economic expansion and may prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, while weak data could strengthen expectations of rate cuts — impacting stocks, the U.S. dollar, bonds, and commodities.
Historically, NFP reports have triggered significant market reactions, with sharp movements depending on the actual data versus expectations. Analysts forecast a moderate job gain, indicating a slowdown compared to recent months. The release comes amid uncertainty linked to new tariffs introduced by President Trump, which may affect business confidence and consumer spending. Investors are closely watching for signals on the economy’s direction and potential Federal Reserve actions.
How could NFP impact the markets?
• Stock market: Weak data could stoke recession fears, pressuring equities, especially in cyclical sectors. However, if seen as a reason for Fed easing, markets may rebound.
• U.S. Dollar: A disappointing report might weigh on the dollar as investors adjust their rate expectations. Strong figures, on the other hand, would support USD.
• Bonds: Slower job growth could drive demand for U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields lower.
• Gold: In case of weak data, gold may rally as a safe haven amid rising expectations of looser monetary policy.
Economists expect a job gain of around 140,000, lower than previous figures — a scenario that could increase market volatility. Get ready for big moves!
Gold trading on April 3, 2025Market Summary:
The market was shaken as Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports, triggering fears of a trade war after China announced retaliatory measures. This sparked concerns over a potential economic downturn, pushing gold prices to record highs as the USD faced heavy selling pressure.
Investors, worried about a recession, are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in June. Bond yields fell as the USD remained under pressure. Meanwhile, ADP data showed 155K new jobs, but it failed to support the USD.
Trading Plan:
XAUUSD Buy Zone: 3082 - 3080
Stop Loss (SL): 3077
Take Profit (TP): 3085 - 3088 - 3095 - Open
Wishing everyone an amazing trading day!
XAUUSD: 3/4 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3200, support below 3100
Four-hour chart resistance 3170, support below 3100
One-hour chart resistance 3150, support below 3105.
Gold news analysis: For weeks, Trump has been claiming that April 2 is "Liberation Day", on which the United States will introduce large-scale reciprocal tariffs that may subvert the global trade system, and plans to announce this wave of new tariffs at 4 pm Eastern Time (in the Rose Garden of the White House). According to the Washington Post, Trump's aides are considering a plan to impose tariffs of about 20% on products from almost all countries, rather than targeting certain countries or certain products. According to the newspaper, the government expects the new tariffs to bring more than 6 Trillion dollars of income, these income can be returned to Americans in the form of tax refunds.
Gold operation suggestions: Gold consolidated yesterday and held the 3100 integer mark. Today, the Asian session opened and broke through. After reaching 3167.8, it began to turn downward and fell below the short-term long and short top and bottom conversion position of 3135.
From the current trend analysis, the short-term support below focuses on 3100-3105 on the one-hour/four-hour/daily chart. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to buy at a low level. Patiently wait for the retracement to buy. Short selling can only enter the market after the key support is lost.
Buy: 3120near SL:3115
Buy: 3105near SL:3099
Buy: 3100near SL:3095
For more daily sharing, please pay attention
Gold (XAU/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish SetupOverview
Gold (XAU/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. However, the price action has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening, and a potential sell-off could follow.
The recent breakdown of the wedge structure confirms the bearish bias, and sellers are now in control. Based on price action analysis, we can anticipate further downside movement toward key support levels.
📊 Technical Analysis – Rising Wedge Breakdown
1️⃣ Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern
The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that occurs when the price consolidates within an upward-sloping channel but shows signs of exhaustion. Here’s how it developed:
Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The price consistently formed higher peaks and troughs, indicating an uptrend.
Declining Bullish Momentum: As the wedge progressed, price action became increasingly squeezed, showing reduced bullish strength.
Breakout Confirmation: Once the lower trendline of the wedge was breached, it confirmed that buyers were losing control and that sellers had stepped in.
2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Structure
🔵 Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge around $3,150 - $3,163 acted as a supply zone, where sellers pushed prices lower.
🟠 Support Level: The lower boundary of the wedge, around $3,100 - $3,120, initially provided demand but eventually failed to hold.
🔻 Breakdown Confirmation: The price broke below the wedge, which is a strong bearish signal.
🎯 Trade Setup & Strategy
3️⃣ Bearish Trading Plan
Given the breakdown of the wedge pattern, the setup favors a short (sell) trade. Here’s how to approach it:
📉 Sell Entry:
The ideal short position is initiated after a confirmed break of the wedge’s support level.
📍 Stop Loss (SL):
A tight stop-loss is placed above the previous resistance at $3,163.67, ensuring risk is controlled if the trade goes against the bias.
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP 1: $3,080.66 – First major support level, where buyers might step in temporarily.
TP 2: $3,057.33 – Extended downside target, offering a greater risk-to-reward ratio.
4️⃣ Additional Price Expectations
Retest of the Wedge Breakdown: The price may pull back to the broken wedge support before continuing downward.
Stronger Bearish Momentum: If selling pressure remains strong, price could fall even lower, breaking TP 2.
Invalidation Level: If price climbs above $3,163, the wedge breakdown would be invalidated, signaling that bulls have regained control.
📌 Conclusion & Market Sentiment
🔹 Rising Wedge Breakdown Signals Further Downside – The market structure suggests that sellers are gaining control.
🔹 Sell Setup with Risk-Managed Approach – With a defined stop-loss and two profit targets, this trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
🔹 Gold’s Short-Term Bearish Outlook – The chart confirms a potential correction, and price may drop towards $3,080 and $3,057 if the bearish momentum continues.
📊 Final Thought:
This is a high-probability short trade based on classic technical analysis. Traders should monitor for confirmation retests and manage risk accordingly. ✅
Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🚀
GOLD/XAUUSD SWING UPDATESHello folks, Gold are on a trend right now. Waiting for this zone for shorts? 3180 might be the high or 3200.
The Initial targets at 3066 zone.
This idea base on my previous idea on fibonacci, Full updates once price goes 3066 zone.
Idea on the new highs maybe later on High impact news.
The idea here is short.
Trade at your own risk.
Follow for more.
I will update once this zones mitigated. Good luck! pewwpeww
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. However, following the announcement of mutual tariffs after the previous session’s close, the index experienced a significant gap-down. On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, generating a sell signal, though confirmation is still pending. If today's session closes with a bearish candle, we must monitor whether this leads to a third wave of selling, signaling further downside.
Due to the gap-down, the price is now significantly distanced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages (MAs), making it crucial to observe whether the price rebounds intraday or continues to decline further. With the first support level at 19,000 now breached, the next key support is around 18,500. When considering buy positions, it is essential to manage stop-loss risk carefully.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared but is not yet confirmed. If confirmed, it could trigger a third wave of selling pressure, potentially leading to further declines. Given the increased market volatility, a cautious approach is recommended—reducing leverage and only trading at key price levels to minimize potential losses.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher while maintaining a range-bound movement around $72. On the daily chart, the MACD has moved above the signal line and the zero line, establishing a bullish trend. However, following the mutual tariff announcement, the price gapped down, dropping below $70. The strongest support zone lies around $68, making it crucial to observe whether the MACD adjusts and aligns with the signal line before rebounding from this support level to resume the bullish trend.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has appeared, but with multiple support levels nearby and both MACD and the signal line still above the zero line, the market is likely to attempt rebounds. A buy-the-dip approach remains favorable, but caution is necessary given today’s OPEC meeting, which could lead to increased volatility.
Gold
Gold closed higher, finding support at the 5-day MA. Following the mutual tariff announcement, the price initially gapped up to around 3,200, before pulling back. As previously mentioned, the upward target for this wave is around 3,216, with strong buying momentum continuing. On the daily chart, gold is trading between the 5-day MA and the upper Bollinger Band, maintaining a one-way bullish structure.
A bullish strategy remains favorable unless the daily close falls below the 10-day MA. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD remains above the zero line and previously attempted to break above the signal line but has since pulled back. Since buying momentum is still present, if the price finds support at a key supply zone, another leg higher could occur, potentially triggering a golden cross in the MACD and leading to a third wave of buying pressure.
Short positions should be approached with caution, and given the increased market volatility, risk management is crucial. Whether buying or selling, stop-loss discipline is essential to manage potential risks.
Market volatility has surged since the pre-market session due to Trump’s mutual tariff policies. Volatility is both an opportunity and a risk for traders. Do not let greed lead to losses in a market that doesn’t match your trading style. Adjust position sizes accordingly and only trade within your comfort zone. The market is always open. Do not focus solely on today—take a steady and stable approach to trading.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
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GOLD --> Increased economic risks increase interest rates.OANDA:XAUUSD the sharp increase is driven by high interest rates fueled by rapidly rising economic risks, mainly related to Trump's tariff war. For selling, risks remain very high, with stock market and cryptocurrency declines only adding to interest in this metal.
The market is seeking safety in traditional value storage channels amid speculation surrounding US President Donald Trump's tax plans on "Liberation Day", April 2. With the WSJ reporting that Trump may impose global tariffs of up to 20% on most US trading partners. This could increase inflationary and stagflationary pressures, weakening the dollar and US Treasury bond yields, supporting gold prices.
This week, all eyes are on Trump's speech on Wednesday, PMI data, non-farm payrolls report and Powell's speech.
Technically, selling is not recommended at this time due to high risks - for buying, we should wait for price corrections to key support levels.
Emphasizing the key point that we are not talking about any trend reversals at this time. It's worth waiting for local corrections or consolidation, the market will mark important levels, liquidity zones or imbalances where you can build trading strategies. Gold will continue rising due to strongly increasing risks.
Gold --> Consolidation before the news. Increase trendOANDA:XAUUSD entering a strong growth phase after a false breakout from support as part of the correction process. The previous high at 3127 is now acting as a robust support for buyers. Strong news is about to be released...
Fundamentally, the market is shifting towards defensive assets amid speculation from the WSJ that Trump is considering imposing global tariffs of up to 20% on most of the United States' trading partners while rejecting plans to scale back tariffs. This could create inflationary pressure and stagnation, weakening the dollar and bond yields, thus supporting gold prices.
Central banks and investors continue to build positions in gold, but there may be some adjustments before the announcement of tariffs and the release of U.S. economic data. Theoretically, any reaction to U.S. data is likely to be short-lived, as the main event risk on the so-called 'Liberation Day' is Trump's major tariff revelation.
The strong resistance level is at 3135. A breakout and consolidation above this level would foster continued growth. However, given the upcoming news, gold may test the area of interest and liquidity between 3025-3020 before further advancing.
Gold Market and the Impact of Trump’s Tariff PolicyAs global economic uncertainty intensifies and gold prices hit record highs, investors are seeking safe-haven assets. After several rounds of market turmoil, investors have recovered somewhat in Asian markets this week.
In the coming week, the focus will be on the reciprocal tariff plan that Trump will announce on April 2. If Trump decides to take tough measures and implement high tariffs across the board, it may have a big impact on the market. However, if there is some relaxation of tariff policies, such as tax exemptions for specific countries, then the market may have a chance to rebound.
Trump was proud of Wall Street's record highs during his first term, but now seems to be less concerned about the stock market and more focused on the adjustment of overall economic policies. I think this may be the time to make structural changes to the US economy, although these adjustments may bring challenges in the short term, but the hope is that the economy will recover before the mid-term elections next year.
In addition, Asian stock markets have also been affected by volatility, especially the automotive industries in Japan and South Korea are under pressure. The automotive manufacturing industries in these countries face the challenge of change due to the upcoming 25% tariffs. Investors are full of doubts about Trump's tariff policy, and market sentiment is cautious, and all parties are waiting for the policy announcement on April 2.
In conclusion, although the market has rebounded in the short term, future trends still need to focus on Trump’s tariff decisions and their potential impact on the global economy.
Has gold entered a downward channel?Gold ended its continuous rise. The daily chart was blocked and fell back, falling to 3100. Technically, the gold price is still above 3078/3095 of MA7 and 5-day moving average. At the same time, MA10/7-day moving average still remains open upward, and the price is running on the upper track of the Bollinger Band.
The short-term four-hour moving average narrowed, and the price was running near the MA10-day moving average at 3123. The price retreated to the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 3101/3104. The RSI indicator turned downward after touching the overbought value above 80 yesterday. The hourly moving average is glued together, and the price returns to the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Band. Gold is expected to continue to expand its operating range during the day. It is recommended to buy at a low level after the correction and be cautious in chasing the rise. Consider selling after the key resistance level or historical high.
Once Trump's tariff policy is implemented, pay attention to the high and low prices in the gold and silver market, which may usher in a substantial downward adjustment. On the contrary, if Trump continues to announce new tariff policies on the basis of the original tariff policy, gold needs to pay attention to triggering risk aversion and causing a sharp rise or a record high again.
Gold surged higher in the US market yesterday and is stagnant. Bulls are under short-term pressure and may enter an adjustment cycle. In the short-term, gold is expected to fall and adjust! Yesterday, gold rose first and then fell, rising to 3149 and then falling. The European market fluctuated narrowly. From the technical indicators, the 2-hour moving average has formed a dead cross, MACD dead cross and large volume, and the Bollinger band closed. The US market continued to decline after the shock, and currently fell below the 3120 intraday watershed. In the short term, it means that the bulls have temporarily come to an end and started to retrace and adjust.
After yesterday's retracement, today's Asian market quickly rose to 3135.7. With the increase in volume on the hourly chart, it corrected the decline with 3150 as the high point. The fluctuation range was large and the adjustment speed was fast. The current position is too risky to chase the rise. Although shorting is against the trend, the implementation of technically overbought tariffs will also be realized, and there will be more room for profit-taking and downward adjustments. Buying and selling opportunities coexist.
Key points:
First support: 3115, second support: 3102, third support: 3093
First resistance: 3138, second resistance: 3150, third resistance: 3200
Operation ideas:
Buy; 3110-3113, SL: 3102, TP: 3140-3150;
Sell; 3143-3145, stop SL: 3154, TP: 3120-3110;
INTRADAY MOVEMENT EXPECTEDi can see still there is liquidity above at the poc of the weekly volume
but if the price can cross up the level it can visit the next resistance above
so if the price at london session cross down the value area i will expect visit the levels shown on the chart as support and make the rejection
so we have to follow the plan and and use the levels on the chart risk management safe the profit secure the orders after the price move stop at break even
we wish happy trade for all
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. Although a sell signal briefly appeared in the previous session, the MACD failed to form a bearish crossover with the signal line, instead finding support and rebounding. The index strongly bounced from its low, reaching the 5-day moving average (MA) before closing with an upper wick.
Since the MACD is supporting the signal line and potentially resuming an upward trend, the key level to watch is whether the price can break through the strong resistance at 19,625–19,675. As long as the MACD does not confirm a bearish crossover, it is advisable to trade within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the index rebounded from the bottom while generating a buy signal. However, with strong resistance around 19,675, if the price pulls back once more, it could either form a double bottom or resume a strong upward move from a single-bottom structure.
Although the MACD has crossed above the signal line (golden cross) on the 240-minute chart, it is still far from the zero line, suggesting that further pullbacks may occur after additional gains. It is important to avoid chasing the price and instead focus on buying dips at key support levels while maintaining a range-trading approach.
Crude Oil
Oil closed flat, facing resistance at $72. On the daily chart, the price broke above the 240-day MA and is now testing resistance from a previous supply zone. It is likely to consolidate within a range while pulling up the short-term moving averages.
The daily MACD has moved above the zero line, lifting the signal line as well. If the price remains in a range-bound consolidation, the signal line will eventually rise above the zero line, further supporting a bullish structure.
Key upcoming events include today’s oil inventory report and tomorrow’s OPEC meeting, which could act as catalysts for either a continuation of the rally or a pullback. Since there is still a gap between the 3-day and 5-day MAs, range trading remains the best approach.
On the 240-minute chart, strong buying momentum continues, but given the heavy supply at previous resistance levels, a period of sideways movement or a pullback is likely.
If a bearish crossover occurs on the 240-minute chart, oil could drop below $70. For now, monitor whether the uptrend can hold, and if it does, consider trading within the range while managing downside risks.
Gold
Gold closed lower after an overshoot to the upside. On the daily chart, the price was in an overextended high position, with a significant gap from the 3-day and 5-day MAs. After a brief rally, selling pressure emerged, leading to a bearish close.
Since gold has yet to properly test the 5-day MA, a pullback to this level remains a possibility. However, the daily MACD is still trending upward, and liquidity remains strong, increasing the likelihood of a one-way rally unless the 10-day MA is broken. Short positions should be approached with caution.
On the 240-minute chart, a bearish crossover has occurred, leading to a pullback from the high. However, since the uptrend remains intact, even if the MACD crosses below the signal line, the fact that it is still above the zero line suggests a potential rebound.
The best strategy is to focus on buying dips at key support levels, as the market is likely to consolidate before resuming a trend move. Be cautious when trading within a range-bound market.
With Friday’s U.S. employment report approaching, market volatility remains elevated. Trump’s tariff policies are increasing concerns about inflation and a potential economic slowdown. The interpretation of upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining market direction.
Risk management remains essential, so trade cautiously and stay prepared.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
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XAU/USD Gold Bullish Momentum – Targeting $3,153+?📊 XAU/USD Daily Analysis – Bullish Continuation in Ascending Channel
🔹 Market Structure & Trend Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a well-defined ascending channel, respecting both dynamic support and resistance levels. The trend remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows forming since late 2024. Currently, price is trading near the upper boundary of the channel, suggesting strong bullish momentum.
🔹 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $3,153 – $3,200 (potential breakout target)
Current Price: $3,020 (holding above key mid-range support)
Support Levels:
Channel Midline Support: ~$2,980
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement: ~$2,900 (potential corrective zone)
Channel Bottom Support: ~$2,700 (strong demand area)
🔹 Bullish Scenario 🟢
A break and close above $3,153 would confirm a bullish breakout, opening the door for a rally toward $3,200 and beyond.
Momentum remains strong, with price structure favoring continued upside as long as it stays above the midline of the channel.
🔹 Bearish Scenario 🔴
Failure to break above $3,153 could trigger a short-term pullback toward $2,980 - $2,900, where buyers may re-enter.
A confirmed breakdown below the ascending channel would invalidate the bullish setup and expose $2,700 - $2,600 as potential downside targets.
🔹 Conclusion & Trade Considerations
Bias: Bullish as long as price remains inside the ascending channel.
Entry Considerations: Retest of $3,020 - $2,980 as support could offer a high-probability long setup.
Breakout Confirmation: A daily close above $3,153 strengthens the bullish case for continuation.
NFP + tariffs = market chaos? In addition to tariff rumors, reports, and retaliations, this week’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) could add even more volatility to markets.
Gold continues to hit record-high after record-high (best quarterly performance since 1986), could be the most important asset to watch.
The market consensus expects the US economy to have added 128,000 jobs in March, down from February’s 151,000.
Danske Bank is more cautious, perhaps responding to Consumer confidence deteriorating to its lowest level since 2013, projecting just 110,000.
Trading Economics is even more bearish, forecasting an increase of only 80,000 jobs. What do they know that others don’t? If they're right, markets may not be priced for it.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lie sup with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,124.63
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,146.29
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 3,097.69
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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