XAUUSD I Potential bullish breakout to 2000Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** XAAUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
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Goldandsilver
Gold - XAUUSD shows more resilience than initially expectedOver the past four months, gold has shown strong resilience. Despite the U.S. interest hike, gold failed to drop substantially. Instead, it moved close to its all-time high value; however, it halted its rise at 2075.63 USD. After that, gold fell below 1900 USD. Although, this drop did not last long, and gold retreated to the 1950 USD price tag a few days later. We remain bullish on XAUUSD, and our medium-term price target of 2100 USD stays in place. Our long-term price target of 2300 USD also remains active.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic stays bullish, and the same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX declines, suggesting no significant trend is present. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are neutral. MACD remains bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish too. ADX continues to increase, which suggests the trend of higher degree is bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows additional support/resistance levels.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GOLD CUP GOLD on the weekly chart..
A mega cup that originated from 2012 where when the rim of the cup was made the course had broken out immediately. This movement ensured that a high maar-shaped pennant formation was arranged and can / may be seen as the handle of the cup. The return after the breakout is an ideal 1/3, measured from the bottom of the cup to the highest point. The pennant breakout happened recently and gave the opportunity to take long positions or to increase the position. However, there may still be a good entry point if the pennant's resistance line is going to be tested again.
On the day and 4 hour chart, therefore, a Fibonacci retracement has been drawn in the latest uptrend and the comeback falls towards the golden pocket zone as on the support previous resistance line of the pennant.
Other agreements/formations in the pennant.
I notice that in the formation there is still a nice W pattern in development, the left one has a V formation (Adam) and the designed one is a bit rounder (Eve) and shows a 3 double bullish bottom on the day (why a triple bottom and not a head and shoulder pattern, for me it lies in the fact that the right shoulder is larger).
All of this coincides with the fact that when placed the fibonacci retracement returns to the well-known gold pocket fib. 0618 ~ 0.65 is also the neckline of the W pattern. So in order to continue Bullish, it is in my view that this red line will become and preferably also be tested in order to continue. I expect some resistance there too.
If we look at the price target ... both the cup n handle and the pennant with pole are about in the same line of expectation. Another fun fact is that recently November 17th there was a golden cross on the day* chart i.e. the 50 day (exp) moving average* crosses the 200 day (exp) moving average* this more or less indicates that the long-term trend is upward.
on the day
on the 4 hours zoomed in on last month
as described above it would be nice to do another re-test on the pennant support-formerly resistance line. I am not yet a star in the Diamond patterns (trend reversal pattern) but I think this could be/become one. hence also the symmetrical triangle drawn in on the wicks. I'm curious how the price will develop.
don't expect such a price increase in the short term.. if I take a "rough" look, a cup has also formed from '97 to '03 and the price target has taken 3 years. once again, it was roughly looked.
Keep calm, trade safe and manage your risk.
(Disclaimer: this is not a financial advice
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (10th August 2021)Many people may feel perplexed about yesterday's selloff in gold when price halted its decline at 1677.686 USD (after 4 bn. USD sell order hit the market). At some point a spread between bid and ask reached more than 35 USD (mainly around yesterday's low). Upbeat economic data with decreasing unemployment point to the steady recovery and lay out path for future rate hikes and taper by the FED. Yesterday's price decline stopped at March lows suggesting strong support in this area. RSI reached oversold level and is striving to reverse. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. Despite that we believe there is not much more downside for gold from here. We believe that short term struggle in gold is nearing its end. Eventually FED will be forced to hike interest rates due to soaring inflation making it bullish case for gold in long run. In our opinion current price of gold is very attractive for entering a long position. Our medium term price target remains 1850 USD and our long term price target remains 1875 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Gold & Silver Stocks - Bullish SetupToday's inflation figures release could be a serious catalyst for the next leg up.
The U.S. economy’s rebound from the pandemic is driving the biggest surge in inflation in nearly 13 years, with consumer prices rising in May by 5% from a year ago.
The Labor Department said last month’s increase in the consumer-price index was the largest since August 2008, when the reading rose 5.4%. The core-price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, jumped 3.8% in May from the year before—the largest increase for that reading since June 1992.
RSI and Stochastics are looking good; both in positive territory.
Starts PMs Production Next Year in a $1700+ and $19+ EnvironmentI prefer to look at and use logarithmic charts because they're less dramatic but included the regular one for comparison.
DYDD.
The targets I put on the chart are conservative. Conceivably a $3 to $5+ stock. In the medium and long-run I think it makes new all-time highs.
Technical Analysis doesn't have to be fancy.
Silver - Potential Buy-in Opportunity and a Look at PriceSilver is one of those classic investments that people tend to buy as price moves rapidly in a positive direction. By the time you hear about Silver's performance, the smart money is already unloading their holdings.
I like silver. In fact, it's one of my top long term holdings. I think with the positive traction gold has had over the past 20 years proves the case for precious metals, and displays the shaky ground holding up fiat currency. Silver is merely a leveraged play of gold, and it's cheap price makes it easier to buy and sell small quantities of physical holdings.
I will post a monthly chart of silver as well to show where I think price is going over the next 10-20 years. But, for today we will focus on he weekly chart and where things are headed over the next year or so.
This recent run up to $19.80 is nothing more than a short squeeze and FOMO rally. Just like I said, people only buy silver when the price is already up. There is no interest in the space otherwise, and the people who have been buying the last 3 months are already regretting it, or are in denial.
We won't see $19-20 silver for at least another year or two.
I do think silver poses a great long term buy. If you are going to hold for more than 20 years, you can't go wrong. However, if you think price will double over the next year, you got another thing coming.
I'm expecting a retest of $15.50-16 over the next 6 months, with a few relief rallies along the way. We can still play the swings over this time and make money.
Over the next 1 to 2 years, I thinks there's a good 60% chance (roughly) to retest $14.
I've drawn out the two scenarios I think are the most likely to play out. The one that plays out all depends on how price behaves over the next 6 months, and how soon we get a strong relief rally.
If the rally happens too soon, I think we move back down to $14 and don't see $18-19 until late 2021.
If we have a healthy correction down to $15-16 and have a later rally, I think we could see $18-19 sooner.
The main thing to keep in mind is that overhead resistance keeping us in this long term wedge. The market will respect this pattern, until of course it doesn't.
Keep your eye on the swings of this market, and you might make some coin (pun intended).
Thanks for stopping by!