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Goldbugs

GLD Gold ETF Pullback for EntryGLD has been trending up and the chart shows that volume is increased in April / May as compared with March and is about relatively 2X. GLD is now priced at its all time high. On the trendline drawn, GLD is rising at a rate of approximately 5% monthly. Gold prices are reacting to economic uncertainties and the dollar value having its challenges. Today, price is down 1-2 % dropping towards the bottom of the Bollinger Bands providing a good long trade entry. Stop loss is one dollar below the bottom band while targets are at + 5% + 15% and +30% as a long duration swing trade expecting rising gold prices for at least six months. See also my idea on XAUSUD / Cup and Handle
AMEX:GLDLong
by AwesomeAvani
JNUG - Leveraged Junior Miner ETF Swing LongOn the 4H chart, I show my analysis that JNUG is ready for an uptrend using the MACD / RSI for confirmation. A head and shoulder pattern is followed by a downtrend which ends in a double bottom for a reversal. I see the potential for a significant gain of the ETF and its call options over about six months. See also my idea on XAUUSD / Spot Gold for a more elaborate analysis and discussion. Globally, the 49ers are back again and I think it is time to enter this market.
AMEX:JNUG
by AwesomeAvani
$BTCUSD: Silver after 2011 top analogueOverall I think we should keep an open mind and trade signals as they form, after all, we get defined targets, stops and timelines from the Time@Mode signals present in daily/weekly charts, that give actionable and profitable cues with a very high win rate, but, in the long run, I expect rallies to fail to get follow through and prices to grind downwards similarly to how Silver behaved after the 2011 top in precious metals. Sentiment in crypto echoes that of Gold and Silver bugs after the 2011 top (which was connected to some hysteria in the US debt rating being downgraded briefly and all kinds of death of the dollar conspiracies). A whole industry of grifters was born with a perma bullish message in Gold and Silver, and a cult following of people stuck in losing trades, buying on the way down, fueling bear market rallies that didn't go nowhere. No one in those circles gave up and capitulated until like 2018 when following the astronomical rise of 'digital gold', physical gold vault services allowed clients to exchange their holdings for crypto, and people did it, en masse. I remember that moment well, it happened with gold triggering a weekly buy signal in early 2018, around the 1200 mark, when I published it as a low risk long term buy. The idea here is to not marry anything and hodl, odds are it won't get you far in the coming years. Definitely be open to trading both sides when safe, with a defined technical setup, and don't use any shady platforms. I think it's probably wise to rely on traditional brokerage firms to safe guard your capital, and simply trade ETFs or futures (futures have better tax treatment when it comes to actively trading them). Contrary to prior years where we had some long term signal triggering in the 2 month timeframe, allowing us to hold and predict a bullish trend and its duration, we don't have any of that, and likely won't get it again, for a long time. Before, this pattern had allowed us to ride the bullish trend from 2016 to the top in early 2018, and the one from July 2020 to late 2021 perfectly. Eventually the market might bottom and reverse, and stage a bullish trend again, but it won't happen as soon as people think, I suspect. A lot of hardcoded 'Bulliefs' need to be challenged and abandoned by people before things can move up like they used to during bullish 'cycles'. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by IvanLabrie
2
Silver Breaking Out (upward). Gold/Platinum should followGold/Silver bugs - are you ready for what a lot of us have been saying for the past 5+ years. The base/bottom in metals back in 2015 was the critical base for the next big move. This upward price swing should be the next accumulation phase which will drive a speculative phase in about 3~4+ years. That speculative phase will be MASSIVE (should happen near 2027~2029). You gotta love when the world sits and waits for metals to move - then ignores the 40% rally in metals/miners in the early phase - right? Here we go.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by BradMatheny
GDXU leveraged gold miner ETF LONG SETUPAMEX:GDXU As illustrated on the one-hour chart GDXU has reversed a downtrend as indicated by the EMA crossover and so on. Support and Resistance lines are shown. Price is well below the SMA200 and thus undervalued as compared with historical data. I see this as an upside 30 % long setup with reasonable risk. Once the trade progresses perhaps 10-12% in price rise, the stop loss can be moved up to break even. This can be approached with intermediate-term call options as well. Targets and stop loss are marked out.
AMEX:GDXULong
by AwesomeAvani
1
XAUUSD IS it ready for a trend reversal?XAUUSD has been in a downtrend on the daily chart however on the chart I see the basis band of the Bollinger Bands ( SMA20?) on a slow uptrend. Impartantly, the when price is in the area of the basis band, volatility is increased. Price could push threw it or bounce. The K line of the RSI indicator is below the histogram and its slope is decreasing, indicating that a potential reversal is slowly insuing. Price is below the POC of the high volume area within the volume profile. The POC tends to act as a magnet pulling price to itself which would be an uptrend. Fedral calendar events tend to increase volatility. All in all, I see a bullish scenario further supported by the cup and handle disussed in another idea. dropping
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
$BTCUSD: is this like gold after 2011?Are laser eyes/single issue voters/NFT owners/shitcoin bagholders the new Goldbugs? Maybe they are, if so this would be the kind of move to expect here... I'm mostly bearish due to sentiment and various fundamental factors as well as technical elements that make me think the long term trend is over. I will monitor action, but I suspect it will act similarly to this, probably best to not short as you make less money than going long after down swings bottom out temporarily, but over time this will get hard to trade even on the long side. Short term traders likely will be able to navigate the murky waters easier than people expecting big one directional moves up or down. My preference is to not trade until a really solid long term capitulation and bottom forms. I would be ok with trading 1h trend signals using automation if anything, or daily reversals for quick swings for a couple days or weeks tops, but need to be very selective. Buy and hodl or short and hodl won't work. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
6
Price Outlook of Gold for 2021-2050*** THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS *** 10Y Treasury and Gold's Price: Gold is correlated strongly (92%) with the 10Y Treasury. During 2020, during the depths of the pandemic, we saw 10Y rates under 0.5%. This was the primary catalyst for Gold to find its new ATH during August of 2020. This strong correlation makes it necessary to understand the primary drivers of Federal Reserve policy and actions. Miss-guided Inflation to Gold Correlation: Inflation is the most commonly purported catalyst behind Gold's price movements. This remains true, however the present narrative surrounding inflation (and the convoluted way QE finds its way to markets) makes it very difficult for the public to have an understanding of long-term inflationary expectations. Under the current regime, we are in much greater danger of Cyclical Deflation than any significant inflation. Hyper-inflationary rhetoric is silly and I'll not address it seriously. My assertions of inflation and deflation trends rely strongly on the Federal Reserve operating under the laws by which it's presently constituted. This is unlikely to happen in the long term. Federal Reserve Frustrations and Law Breaking/Changing: Within the next 5 years it will become painfully obvious to the Federal Reserve they're incapable of generating true inflation. Once the Fed and the Government resign to this fact, there'll be a proposal to change the Federal Reserve Acts to give the Fed more monetary freedom. The way this affects American Life is in the introduction of a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency); transforming the Fed from the Lender of last resort into the Spender of all resorts. This will be the true catalyst behind inflationary trades; shifting Gold's closest price correlation from the 10Y rate to the threat of true inflation. Powell's Fed Ending: Jerome Powell is slated for re-appointment early in 2022. I don't think he will be. It's likely the next Chairman (Chairwoman) of the Fed will probably be Lael Brainard. In this case, my above statements are hastened and magnified. Federal Reserve (Monetary Policy Trajectory): The Federal Reserve remains hawkish in the short term. This means short term 10Y rates are unlikely to rise to or above 2% for the next few years. As stated above, under present forces, low rates are bullish for the price of Gold but since rates are already tightly approaching 2% the buy signal for gold will remain neutral until 2023. I don't think Gold make any significant moves, but it will likely maintain its present price with a +/-10% around the 200 day moving average. Price Prediction: I will not be buying more physical gold until either 10Y rates rise and remain above 2% or until the Fed introduces a CBDC. I don't see either of these catalysts forming until 2023. Until 2023, it's best to play the short-term averages and trajectories in the Paper Gold markets. Depending upon the economic outcomes of the next few years, Gold could vary wildly in price. If strong deflation persists, $500 Gold is not out of the question. If Laws change and a CBDC is introduced, the price of Gold could easily rise above $10,000 (or other denominations). Unconsidered Catalysts (BASEL III): BASEL III is close to being enacted. I have not been able to research all of the components of BASEL III's changes. However, one of the major changes (along with reinstating Gold as a Tier I asset for collateralization purposes) is making unallocated positions impossible. How BASEL III does this is not clear to me but I will post an update once I have a better understanding of this. Removal of unallocated paper positions in Gold would result in a precipitous rise in Gold's price if the assumption of many Goldbugs (that gold is heavily manipulated through paper markets (ETF's and Bullion Banks)) are true. This isn't that ridiculous an idea considering some statements given by Greenspan and Bernanke. I'll go into details on these statements in future ideas. Short Term Prediction (Now to 2023): NEUTRAL with a price of Gold ranging from $1,700.00 to $1,900.00 . Long Term Prediction (2023 to 2050): REMARKABLY BULLISH with a price of Gold ranging from $50,000.00 (eq) to $100,000 (eq). (where "eq" allows for future U.S. dollar equivalents)
TVC:GOLD
by forever_green
GOLD STRUCTURE ANALYSIS|SITUATION OVERVIEW GOLD has recently seen a good correction from the all time high peak onto a confluence of the support lines of various reliability. It is so far impossible to know what path will be chosen by the market, yet the overall sentiment is bullish, with the recent correction serving as a sign of health of the growth. In situations like this one, the understanding of the key levels might be of great help. A look at the chart gives us the new ultimate resistance- the new all time high. The massive support cluster in the green is formed by a number of support lines. It is intentional, that I am not highlighting any support line in particular, as I do not know which one is appreciated by the mkt the most. That means that the market itself does not know yet. However, the support cluster is a great way of seeing if the metal is still looking up. Anything above the cluster is bullish, a fall below is bearish. So far the cluster stands, with all the support lines intact, hinting us that the retest of the resistance is possible, with either a double top or breakout scenarios. The bearish outcome is less likely ,based on the chart data we discussed, thus the downward arrow is dotted and bleak. Further depth and precision is so far possible by the lower timeframe price action analysis.You can do that yourself using my key levels chart above. Thank you for reading, like and subscribe and have a nice day.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ProSignalsFx
3