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Goldbugs

More volatility = Gold up? - Ichimoku XAU/USD Trade SetupIf you're in the membership then you made an absolute killing on this last week and we're going to continue to look for chances to get long, if they present themselves. I am looking for price to fall a little lower to test at or near kijun sen to get long. If we get a good reaction with price either get a good support candle or bounce right off of it, I'll enter a buy. I am targeting previous price structure highs, but if you look left of current price we can aim for price structure and wicks along the way. As an alternative entry we can look for a break above the previous candle to get long, but it is a little more risky and diminishes potential risk to reward. If we fail to get a good to support, or to actually hold support, this setup may become invalidated. 
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by The808Trader
GDX - Signalling a long-term up-move?The bottom in the precious metals has been forming since early 2016. As you can see from the chart of the ETF for the gold miners, GDX, it had a quick rally that year and then went into another sideways pattern until January 2019. Now the chart appears to be getting ready for a stronger up-move. You can see that a long, bullish potential inverse “head and shoulder” pattern has formed. A breakout in the near-term would mean that the early 2016 low was a false downside breakout on a major (longer-term) scale. Such breakouts usually have very strong moves in the opposite direction, in this case upward. For more insights on Gold and our long-term forecast, get our free report "Why Gold Could rise for the Next 10 Years".
AMEX:GDX
by DohmenCapitalResearch
Gold Getting Ready to Disappoint InvestorsI can tell by the title I wrote that gold bugs are already pissed off. Long story short, I think gold (and silver) will go further down in value. I first want to start by saying I love precious metals including gold, but I don't think this scenario is going to play out the way any sane person would think. That's why you have me, completely lacking all sanity. Lol. Any decent gold bug would be laughing their asses off right now trying to understand how I could think gold could go even FURTHER down in value. All the central banks printing fiat money like mad men. The eminent stock and housing market crash. The ever dwindling trust of the people in their government. How could all of these add up to a lower gold price yet again? If you want my fundamental reasons why, you can read my article on Steemit or AssetGuild.com ... On TradingView, we'll stick strictly to TA... Let's get into the meat and potatoes. To be clear, I am about 70/30 for a bearish continuation of gold and other precious metals in general. The price of Gold reached an ATH in 2011 at about $1900. Since then, price as been beaten down to lows of $1050. Now we are in this range supported within a long term wedge that gets tighter as the weeks go on. There is only so much time before a big move comes. The Bear Case: In my opinion, gold entered bear market territory when price broke below the 100 and 200 MA. We saw a run down to $1050, then a run up to $1835. This was claimed to be the "new bull market" by many. Since then, price had played into this wedge pattern that we've been in for years now and is giving mixed signals with it's moving averages. Price is now testing the 200 MA after breaking through the 100 MA which leads me to believe there will likely be a rejection here. Why? because it's the opposite of what everyone wants. Further more, breaking above the 200 MA signals the exiting of a bear market. And if we were truly in a bear market, we would need to fulfill one important category on my radar: The RSI. We have yet to see an oversold condition in the monthly RSI. It happens for nearly every asset class in past bear market including for gold. I have targets for $1,000 gold over the next few years and $735 gold in the most bearish situation. The biggest thing to keep an eye on is this long term wedge pattern the gold price is in. We have consistently bounced within this wedge creating a coiling action in price. The end result is going to be a big move in one direction or the other. What most investors expect is a great performance by gold, but I can't help but think the opposite will happen. In the long term, we are still in a corrective bear market. Meaning people bullish on gold will continue to be disappointed until they run out of capital. That's where the oversold condition on the RSI helps us out. Though, it might be many years before we see anything like that. The Case for the Bulls I am pretty certain the scenario I've described above is the most likely, but there is always the chance I end up being wrong. Any investor/trader is foolish to say they are always right. So what do the bulls have going for them? Well that trend line supporting price in that great big wedge has held support for a longer time than gold has even been in this bear market. There is a chance that it is given greater respect. From a technical standpoint, that is the only long-term signal to me that I could be wrong on this. If you have any analysis on price, please share your link below. I am more than open to take a look. I am not permanently biased. Just biased until I'm proven wrong. Overall, I think a bull market in gold would be giving precious metals investors exactly what they want. Big money interests are still looking to accumulate the metal, and they would love nothing more than to accumulate it at a cheaper price. From an economic standpoint, we are still tightening in the US. Meaning interest rates are going up and are becoming more attractive to investors, the US dollar is getting strong and inflation is DECREASING. Gold does not historically consistently perform well during deflation, especially when it's no longer used as a global currency. Strong Dollar = Weak Gold Thanks for stopping by!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by micahjmiller
3
GOLD: THE PENULTIMATE ACTGold is breaking the final frontier of a multi-year pennant. It is now nestled below trendline resistance and the weekly 200MA. Could this just be a false move? Unfortunately for the Gold bulls, Gold has to contend with a a very bullish USD. Unless the USD is going to make a move to the downside, I cannot see Gold making ANY serious upside traction. And my conclusion? Projecting a MEASURED MOVE - that is, the top of the 2016 range to the low corner of the pennant - the current trendline break takes us to........ $900 Yes. That's right. I'm short Gold until it reaches 900. I believe we're about to see the slaughter of the last die-hard bulls, and for Gold to enter stale long liquidation. I'm short, and will add on ANY significant rallies below 1280. But.... I have titled this chart The Penultimate Act. You'll notice I have some green marked on the chart. $900 will be the low to BUY...
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TheRealPeaches
NCM: Looking for a test of the top bound +20% upsideI have been struggling to find longs in this market but NCM is an Oz puppy I like to trade as a gold proxy. It is gappy, it is volatile and it will pop with gold. Stock has been trading in a nice channel for about 15 months with the lower range at c$20 and top range at c.$24. 240M MACD crossing over and stock is trading just around the bottom of the range. What do you buy when the world is burning around you? Good old gold.
NLong
by WellTrainedMonkey
GOLD IS DEAD?In short our full net short position in gold and silver is well justified from the measurement of risk and reward at the time writing this article/idea As we are seeing from the past couple of days mining stocks,gold and silver have been moving sideways and volatility have been decreased in a significant manner,many inexperienced traders gets confused at this point as they thought no significant price move is going to happen and there is no point to watch this market but reality is exactly opposite low volatility in gold often precedes huge moves in prices and we are attaching the chart below so you see it clearly,what we saw in this market (having experience of more than 6 years) that in most cases implication of low volatility meant that a huge bearish move is about to take place,we are attaching two charts below so you could be able to see that why recent low volatility should be seen as upcoming bearish movement,to watch this we have to see gold stocks to gold ratio and the gold stock to the general stock ratio,https://www.tradingview.com/x/IE2AUB3u/ if you look at both ratios you could clearly see that entire sideways movement in p.m sector is verifying the breakdown in both ratios,on a short term basis you could see the prices not moving if you will try to look at long term picture then you should be ready to see significant decline in prices ok let's quickly jumped into silver,we already have wrote in our previous articles that silver still can made a short term small upswing before it plunges back,we still support our previous idea that either silver can decline immediately or it could move little higher before quick decline continues,we can compare the analogy of late nov 2017 to current situation GOLD-our previous comment on this metal is still up-to date i would like to add few things today and that is comparison of current situation to 1st nov 2017 when gold made its final top and quickly plunges back and made its breakdown below 50 day moving average.well that session was quite interesting,those who followed our instruction made huge profit at that particular session,as we already know volatility has been decreased and gold almost did nothing yesterday,if we compare the situation to gold previous breakdown below 50day moving average the implication seems quite bearish, Adding things up-As we already wrote many times that an small upswing in white and yellow metal is still probable and in white metal that's what we are seeing right now gold miners under performance makes this point even more valid,overall it seems that the big decline is just around the corner we will update you anyway!!!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
1
Gold neutral to bearishFor the last couple of months gold's been trading in a range frustating for both the longs and the shorts with no real movement in either way. Yet the bears seem to be winning this fight for now. Gold is still following it's downward channel even though it broke it's median line but didn't stay above it for long. Ideally I'd like for gold go down to about 1190 to flush out the entrenched longs maybe even reach 1130. Once the longs have been flushed sentiment will be ultra bearish that's when new long positions should be opened.
TVC:GOLD
by MedianLineAnalysis
Gold - Main scenario sees wave B ending between 1,315 and 1,345Gold did indeed continued its correction and reached a low at 1,260 USD on Friday the 6th of October. I hope you followed my advise and went long below 1,265 USD, cause since then a strong recovery is on its way and gold is already back above 1,300 USD. Yet the big questions whether this current up-move is just a wave B type recovery or in deed the beginning of the next big up-leg towards 1,400 USD remains unanswered. Our mechanical Midas Touch Gold Model™ has shifted to a neutral conclusion on October the 9th. Over the last couple of days a few new buy signals showed up. Besides the obvious ones for gold in Indian Rupee & in Chinese Yuan the US-Dollar has come back down enough to create a buy signal for gold six days ago. Especially positive is the fact, that gold in US-Dollar now has a buy signal one the daily, weekly and monthly chart. Overall it therefore doesn’t take too much for a bullish conclusion of our model anymore. But looking at the CoT-Report its clear that the commercial are still holding a massive short-position in the gold futures-market. And you don’t want to bet against them. So besides any short-term recoveries the correction since early September seems not to be over yet. It would be a surprise if the bulls can force the professional players to raise their short positions once again. Coming back to the technical outlook for gold the most likely outcome is that we are currently in wave B that will end somewhere between 1,315 and 1,345 USD. At 1,345 USD there is still an open gap waiting to be filled! The upper Bollinger Band currently sits at 1,316 USD. So we might see a temporary pullback from those levels before gold can find more strength to close the open gap. After that I expect another move down towards at least the rising 200MA currently sitting at 1,255 USD. Only if gold can take out the September highs at 1,357 USD this outlook becomes invalid as it would mean that the correction since early September has already finished at 1,260 USD on October the 6th.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by MidasTouchConsulting
Gold - Two scenarios with a buy between 1,245 and 1,265 USDTwo scenarios for gold: 1. Since the top at 1,357 USD gold is in a correction which usually turns out to be some form of ABC-Correction. If we are still in wave A, the following wave B should take gold back above 1,300 USD. Probably to around 1,315 USD.. After that expect another wave down which might not end before prices around 1,215 - 1,205 USD are reached. 2. During gold´s sell off there was one shallow bounce. If that was already wave B the whole correction is getting close to be finished. In that case wave C is expected to end between 1,245 USD and 1,265 USD. Thereafter gold should start the next advance which will not stop at the open gap around 1,346 USD but should take us towards 1,400 USD... In any case gold is a buy between 1,245 and 1,265 USD Profit target 1,315 USD or higher Stopp loss 1,235 USD
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by MidasTouchConsulting
2
Silver 2W pushing into cloudAt the long time-frame of two weeks with ichimoku we see the price testing the bottom of the thick red cloud. At some point soon I expect a decisive entry into the cloud and the climb upwards to break from above cloud in the coming months. But not if JP Morgan can help it... Now certainly seems like a good entry based on bottoming. However, silver still may be a long game until the breakout is confirmed. Then, kaboom. We'll finally be off to the races again like 2010/2011.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by cryptegrity
Gold - bullish embedded stochastic ! 1,290/1,300 USD is nextGold remains very bullish here despite any overbought readings.. The breakout above the 6-year downtrend-line is super super bullish. Its the strongest signal for gold since 6 years !!! With the slow stochastic oscillator being embedded the rally will very likely continue over the coming days and weeks towards 1,295/1,300 USD. From there we should or could get a pullback towards the former downtrend-line which by then should correspond with the rising 200MA. That would give you another chance to buy into a dip around 1,250 USD. But of course its not sure. Gold could first run towards 1,370 USD too as the 6-year downtrend-line has been such a depressing factor that is now history! A pullback from those levels would end certainly higher than 1,250 USD.. probably 1,280/1,290 USD... but that´s all hypothetic for now. JUST LET YOUR WINNINGS RUN
FX:XAUUSDLong
by MidasTouchConsulting
1
Gold - Buy The Next Dip Around 1,240 USDAs expected gold continues to trade between 1,200 USD and 1,300 USD. The recent strong recovery from 1,215 USD up to 1,295 USD just two days ago was a bit surprising as we´re getting close to the FED meeting next week and seasonality is not really favorable in spring. But gold is showing more and more strength and has already been breaking out above its depressing six-year downtrend-line and the corresponding large triangle pattern! This is a super strong technical signal. Today gold came back towards 1,271 USD signaling that this break out might not yet be sustainable. But today´s pullback could also be the typical test of the former downtrend-line. Looking at the overbought daily and weekly chart and the lagging miners as well as a very oversold US-Dollar it´s most likely that gold will drop back to its falling 200-day moving average around 1,240 USD over the next couple of days and weeks. This would be another great buying opportunity as I believe we´re getting closer and closer to the big rally towards 1,500 USD. My recommendation is to buy any dip towards 1,250 USD and also start loading up on selected mining stocks over the next couple of weeks. I think especially silver mining stocks will do very well later this year.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by MidasTouchConsulting
1
Update on GoldI'm still long on gold, adding to my position with the most recent dip. RSI has failed to break down below the mid 40 level two times already (a failed attempt now would be the third). As I mentioned in my last post on gold, I saw a potential drop to the 1230-1240 area, which we got (I commented to a TV'er that I thought 1250 might be an updated bottom, was too optimistic about that). With Q1 GDP being 0.7%, and the Hard US Data getting worse as the quarter went on, the trend is down. I still see 1450 as my mid-term target (July). Furthermore, during the next gold run, I believe this will be the time that miners actually respond, and will outpace gold on this run. USD will continue to make lower highs, and lower lows. My current positions are SEA and GPR on the TSX.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by GeorgeJimas
3