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Goldbugs

Where is gold heading in the next weeks, months and years?In the medium term, gold is in the 5th wave of an ending diagonal that could end around 1030. But before heading to new lows we could see a correction towards 1120 levels in the (B) wave. In the long term, gold should start a multi-year upward move towards 1450-1500 during these years the sentiment will shift from bearish to bullish and analysts will call for new all times highs ($2500, $5000 and $10,000). After reaching my target, gold will go in another multi-year bear market towards new lows $700s area which represents the area in which a smaller degree 4th wave ended (2008 lows) and the end of the first wave of the grand supercycle. At that point in time, investors will dump gold and most people will be bearish gold, all goldbugs would turn bearish; which will represent the beginning of the fifth grand supercycle wave to new all time highs. In commodities, the fifth wave usually is the strongest. P.S: I am not a fortune teller, I just use the given variables and present the most probable outcome using Cycles, Elliott Waves Analysis, the Dow-theory, Social trends and fractals.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ResonanceTrading
Using HUI/VIX on weekly chart to anticipate major HUI movesHUI (Gold Bugs Index) throws signals relative to the VIX that are pretty obvious and allow plenty of time for entries and exits. I'll describe how in a minute - before that think about the aspect of Gold trading that is a "worry trade" and think about what the VIX is. As that sinks in, you realize that gold buyers are often playing a much longer time frame than the options traders who drive the VIX. So the signal mix here shouldn't surprise anyone with trading experience. The Chart - I've taken the Heiken Ashi of the ratio of HUI/VIX. The rationale for HUI/VIX? "Worry traders" - those who buy gold and those that track the VIX - aren't always the same people, but both are often hedging (or betting on) a market crash - or worse. This chart shows the ratio in the red/green candles and in the background the gray is HUI itself. The Sell Signal - I drew three horizontal lines where HUI/VIX pivots are common and pulled up the RSI (important - the Heiken Ashi is important here - it makes the RSI divergences easier to read). The signal pattern for a SELL of HUI is a bearish divergence on the HUI/VIX followed by a simultaneous spike in HUI to the top zone while the HUI/VIX moves down to the middle zone. In those cases HUI plunges shortly after. Why? I think of it as "hang time" - the gold believers are the last to give up - the VIX has moved lower and the S&P isn't showing worry anymore. Gold as a worry asset then follows suit because fewer new buyers are converted to owning Gold. The Buy Signal - Worry assets bottom when no one is worried. Yet worry is cyclical. We are very close (maybe 3 to 6 months out, IMO) from a worry low, and the chart shows it - we are sitting above the "no one is worried" pivot line, but we aren't there yet, at least according to past patterns on this weekly chart. THAT DOES NOT MEAN HUI HASN'T BOTTOMED. Sorry for the caps, but ratio charts are tricky - we can move firmly down into that bottom zone with HUI trading sideways (consolidation) and VIX dropping. I am actually expecting that very thing to happen and have linked a chart showing why I see VIX lower for 3 more months.
NYSE:HUI
by codypd
Gold recovery still confusingGold (23.03.2015) moved higher as mention in our last article just around swiss gold referendum & posted a higher above $1300 mark. However it felt sharply & reached to the previous bottom around $1138. Now gold showing recovery from previous bottom level & also broken from a shot term descending channel as shown in picture. However this breakout is not supported well in terms of volume & that force us to stay concern about this upside rally. The strength of this rally will be tested on $1205 once. On fundamental side a clear signal from FED to not raise the interest rate very soon & over bought conditions in dollar could support further. Based on above studies, gold probably will more higher towards $1205 in coming trading session & will test the strength on this mark. Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us Call Us : 088890 34986 www.mantracommodity.blogspot.in MCX levels -> S2(25900) S1(26010) cmp(26150) R1(26330) R2(26510)
FX:XAUUSDLong
by mantracommodity
1
Repeat of 2013 GLD Crash - Updated(3/9)- TL;DR: GLD in descending triangle similar to that of 2011- 13. Expecting up to 25% decline over next 6 months. - Trade: Short, Limit Cover half @ $98 and half @ $85, Stop Loss @ 124.5 (8%) -OR- Jun 30 113.00 Puts trading $2.91, BE $110 After nearly three years of uninterrupted gains, beginning in late 2008 and ending in late 2011, GLD set a high water mark at $185. Over the next year the etf settled into a clear descending triangle pattern, the base of which measured roughly $37 or 20%. The $151 support was shattered in early April giving way to a roughly $37 or 25% decline in less than three months. This accounts for a measured move of 1.0(nominal measure of base). Again we find ourselves low in the tail end of a descending triangle, after four consecutively lower highs. Oddly enough the base of this pattern measures $28.5, again another 20% measured base. A full measured move would take GLD to roughly $85, down 25%, coincident with '08 - '10 support. Interim support to be found around $97. Remember the first half of the year is typically seasonally weak for gold prices, the last crash occurring on the threshold of March and April. Additionally consider that gold has a particularly loyal set of investors; they love to buy the dips and psychological supports( at least from what I can tell). So on one hand this absolutely bolsters the current support, on the other hand it leads to interesting circumstances. Below this current price level the volume at price drops off relatively sharply, until about $100. When you see heavy accumulation at a given price support with a volume pocket below, it creates vacuum conditions and usually leads to capitulation if the support is broken. These same conditions existed and, I believe, contributed to fast drop in '13. If you're a gold bug, it would be prudent to maybe hedge your position with some puts. If you're looking to short, here might be your catalyst. Regardless of where you stand, best of luck. Update (10am: 3/9/15) - Main support has been broken, but two intermediary supports remain for the short term. The first is $111.50, which I will give moderate attention to. The second is at $109.90, which should be the last strand. Otherwise I believe the trade is on. Cheers. If you follow currencies check out my related DXY idea.
BATS:GLDShort
by BeardTech
9
Gold broken major resistance Gold(17.11.2014) moved higher in last week on profit booking as well as on challenging fundamental growth of major economy. However branching the strong resistance zone with volume could change long term scenario. Now gold is trading around $1187 & we can see on charts, friday gold rally more than 3% & provided a closing above $1182-1172 resistance which where able to stop gold momentum many times. Technically after breaking $1180 mark gold made a low of $1131 while unable to close below $1138 mark which represent the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This area was very close to the lower trendline of current descending channel too. An elliott wave bearish pattern completion also suggest for 3 corrective wave pattern ahead. On fundamental side, upcoming swiss bank referendum on 30th nov could play major role for gold price. A voting result in favor of swiss referendum will force swiss banks to buy big quantity of gold which will never come back in market for liquidation. Based on above studies , there is a major probability that gold will provide a corrective move towards support zone & then move upside for possible targets around $1207 & then $1225 atleast. A day close below $1272 will delay the forecast. Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us Call Us : 088890 34986 MCX levels -> S2(26160) S1(26300) cmp(26425) R1(26650) R2(27000) www.mantracommodity.blogspot.in
FX:XAUUSDLong
by mantracommodity
1