4 Winning Years Ahead for Traders Under TrumpOn November 5, 2024, the markets made it loud and clear—they’re excited about Donald J. Trump’s return to office. Stocks, the dollar, and other key assets all responded with strong moves that reflect investor confidence in what his policies might bring. Compare this to the last few years under Biden, and the difference is striking. The market barely budged during Biden’s presidency; even when he contracted COVID-19, it was business as usual. With Trump back, though, there’s an undeniable surge of optimism. Let’s look at what’s happening across the major assets and what it could mean for us traders in the days ahead.
S&P 500 (SPX)
The S&P 500 spiked from $5,704 to $6,018 on election night—a powerful rally that signals investor optimism. It seems the market is embracing Trump’s expected focus on tax cuts and pro-business policies. This kind of jump doesn’t happen without a reason; investors are clearly betting that Trump’s return will be good for corporate America and, by extension, for the economy.
Gold (XAU/USD)
In times of uncertainty, gold usually rallies as investors look for safe havens. But on election night, we saw the opposite: XAU/USD dropped from $2,750 to $2,643 per troy ounce. This decline tells us that investors feel less inclined to hedge their bets with gold, opting instead for assets tied to economic growth. When people pull out of safe havens, it's often a sign they’re feeling pretty good about what’s ahead.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar had its own rally, with the DXY climbing from 103.3 to 105.4. This spike reflects confidence in the U.S. economy’s potential under Trump’s leadership. With the dollar gaining strength, it’s clear that investors expect strong economic fundamentals and possibly higher interest rates—both of which could keep the dollar in demand.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
The Dow also rallied, jumping from $41,649 to $44,173. This boost is especially interesting because it reflects optimism in sectors like manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure—industries Trump has supported in the past. Investors are likely betting on policy moves that could provide a lift to U.S. industries, potentially driving corporate profits higher.
WTI Crude Oil (WTI)
Looking forward, I’m expecting WTI prices to come under pressure as Trump likely revisits his focus on domestic oil production. If he revives the “drill, baby, drill” approach, we could see supply levels increase, which would weigh on prices. This potential shift in energy policy is something to keep an eye on, as it could create fresh trading opportunities.
The Big Picture
From stocks to the dollar, the market’s reaction seems to signal that Trump’s return is seen as positive for growth and stability. Reflecting on his previous term, I remember trading seemed almost simpler—beyond economic reports, following Trump’s statements (especially on Twitter) often gave insight into market sentiment. We might be looking at a similar environment now.
Final Thoughts for Traders
Trump’s re-election sets the stage for market dynamics we’ve seen before, with a familiar blend of optimism and volatility. For traders, this could mean more straightforward strategies, particularly by keeping an eye on policy shifts and economic indicators. With Trump’s leadership back in play, I believe the next four years could be some of the best trading years we’ve seen. Whether you’re in stocks, commodities, or forex, it’s clear the market is responding—and as traders, there’s a lot we can take away from that.
Goldcartel
Market Reactions: The Markets Love President TrumpOn July 13, 2024, during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former President Trump survived an assassination attempt, leading to significant market reactions. From the Tokyo session opening on July 14 until July 17, the XAUUSD price surged to 2484, fueled by heightened uncertainty.
Trump's first public appearance since the attempt was his speech at the Republican National Convention on July 18. This event triggered a market response, with the XAUUSD price dropping from 2484 to 2383, a notable $100 decline.
From a technical analysis standpoint, an ascending broadening wedge pattern is forming, indicating a potential trend reversal. Key Fibonacci retracement levels to watch are the 38.20% retracement at 2225 and the 50% retracement at 2146. Additionally, a trendline highlighted in my chart is expected to be tested in the coming days.
These developments highlight President Trump's profound influence on market movements.
Is 2024 Set to Be the Toughest Year for the Crypto Market ?Technical Analysis:
Right now, the market's showing signs that might point to a 'cup and handle' pattern in the price charts. For those who aren't familiar, a cup and handle pattern looks a bit like a "U" with a slight dip at the end. Not to get too bogged down in details, but interestingly, in early January 2024, Bitcoin's price hit a ceiling around the same high it did back in March 2022, which was about $48,000.
From what I can see, it looks like Bitcoin might be on a bit of a downward trajectory in the short term. I'm thinking we might see the price retract to around the $30K-$34K area in the next few weeks, which could be a point where more buyers jump in. However, this is something we need to watch closely because that range might just turn out to be a support level.
If the price falls through that $30K-$34K range I mentioned, then I'm expecting it could drop even further, maybe hitting a new low (we could be talking as low as zero or around $10K).
News:
Switching gears to the news, there's something intriguing about the BRICS nations considering backing their currency with gold. My first reaction is, "Wow," because it's pretty common to want a currency backed by something as solid as gold. But the big question is how this move will affect the relationship between their currency and cryptocurrencies. If this really takes off, it could be a very tough year for the crypto market.
Summary:
For now, I'm just keeping an eye on the market's pulse and price movements. I haven't jumped into the market yet, but I'm patiently waiting for the right moment and Brics news.
Flight Boarding - Grand Theft Auto 6Hey fellow gamers and number-crunchers, gather 'round! 🎮
Big news alert: Rockstar Games is dropping the first trailer for Grand Theft Auto 6 on December 5, 2023! twitter.com
Now, for those who live and breathe gaming, no further explanation needed. But hey, to the data lovers and boomers in the house, let me break it down for you.
Rockstar is the genius behind hits like Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, Bully, and La Noire. Flashback to 2013 when they unleashed Grand Theft Auto 5, which turned out to be the best-selling console/PC-only game EVER. Talk about a gaming legend!
Fast forward to now, and GTA 5 has racked up a mind-blowing 185 million units in sales by August 2023. That's across three console generations and PC, making it the cash cow of the entertainment world.
Hold on to your controllers because Grand Theft Auto 6 is gearing up for launch, and the prediction is a whopping $1 billion in sales from the get-go! 🤑 Experts are betting on at least 25 million copies flying off the shelves on release day.
For the financial gurus out there, I've got the deets on TTWO Rockstar Games history prices in my previous analysis. And if you're eyeing the market, the sweet spot for entering the trade seems to be at that red horizontal line at 146 - 150. But here's the cherry on top: I believe we're aiming for a new all-time high beyond 210! 🚀
So, who's ready for the next gaming revolution? 🌟 Share your thoughts below and let the positive vibes flow! 🚀🎉
Will XAUUSD fall to lower low ?
When examining the gold price from the perspective of a downtrend rally, it becomes apparent that, up to this point, XAUUSD has demonstrated a rejection of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. This occurrence serves as the initial indication that the downtrend's strength remains robust. In the event that the downtrend's momentum subsides, there exists the potential for XAUUSD to undergo a retest of the 50% Fibonacci retracement. At present, our position places us at the level of a lower high.
All attention is currently fixated on Powell's impending speech scheduled for tomorrow, as it is anticipated to offer insights into the resilience of the USD.
Invalidation:
This analysis becomes untenable should the price surge beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Validation:
This analysis maintains its validity as long as the price remains situated below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Will Bitcoin fall to zero ?This analysis is only based on the technical analysis of the daily and weekly time frame
If you have been following me since years ago, you know that I predicted the September 2020 Rally (chart attached below, and the complete analysis attached link)
The incredible rally started on September 2020 and continued until November 2021. It started at 9800 and reached its summit at 69000. It was a double the top at 65000 and 69000.
What led to Bitcoin crashing is partly due to the greater economic downturn. And then secondarily, you've seen several crypto companies that have recently filed for bankruptcy; many of these crypto companies took on too much risk, which led to them imploding as the price went down.
Based on my daily time frame, Bitcoin Broke the first Down trendline on September 2020 (See the red line on the chart). That red down trendline hasn't been retested yet. As you know, all the breakouts need a retest. So when is the retest? And at what price will the retest potentially be?
My chart shows that potentially the retest will be on March 2023, and the retest price at ZERO.
Right now, we can see a bear flag forming, and the price is precisely at the bottom of the bear flag. We also can see the Neckline at 30k area.
So the question is, is Bitcoin ready to break below the bear flag? Or will Bitcoin go up to retest the Neckline?
Valid:
- This analysis is Valid as long as the price stays below the Neckline, and this analysis confirms if the price can break out below the bear flag.
Invalid:
- This analysis fail if the price breakout above the Neckline
DXY reach the 17 Years ResistanceFinally, DXY reached the 17 Years Resistance. This resistance was tested in November 2005, December 2016, and September 2022.
Powell will speak this week, and many incoming high-impact US data this month. The question is whether DXY will break or rejects the resistance ?
If DXY rejects this resistance, I reckon it will fall deep to 102, and if DXY breakout above, the potential target will be 120.
Currently, I reckon DXY will rejects, but time will tell.
Invalidation:
- This short sentiment analysis fails if the price breaks above the resistance.
Potentially the greatest trade of this year - Huge Falling wedgeMy chart shows that potentially there will be incoming big news, either from the US or Europe. What news? I don't know.
EURUSD has been crashing since May 2021, approximately 17 months.
A potential substantial falling wedge pattern is forming on the weekly time frame (Chart attached below). If the price rejects the bottom falling wedge line, I reckon EURUSD will climb to at least the upper weekly falling wedge line.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close below the weekly falling wedge line
PS:
- Keep in mind that this analysis is based on the weekly time-frame
Forecast - Potentially retest the trendlineSo far, XAUUSD has failed to make an all-time high; the price rejected the triple tops zone at 2060s, then fell deep to the 1980s broke below the rising wedge. The triple top and rising wedge are a strong reversal pattern.
Technical chart-wise, the 1950s is the next most vital demand zone, and the bottom wedge line "Yellow arrow" price at 2000s is the most vigorous supply zone. Keep in mind that there is a trendline, and based on the chart, potentially, XAUUSD will retest the trendline on June 9, 2023.
XAUUSD will likely be ranging in 1950s - 2000s level until June, but time will tell.
Ninja Ascending Broadening Wedge - Day TradingI currently see a large Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern on the H1 Time-frame and a small potential channel. Based on the pattern, I reckon Ninja will potentially retest the bottom wedge line as long as it stays inside the white channel.
This week, we need hints from the high-impact incoming US data to decide whether we will buy at the bottom wedge line targeting 147 or keep selling if the price breakout below the wedge line until 139.
If we see DXY, It seems to have already reached the "TOP" chart attached below
But unfortunately, JPYX is still crashing badly
Weekly analysis before the NFPCurrently, I see a potential channel, and the price right now is precisely at the upper channel line.
If the market needs a retracement or maybe a reversal while waiting for the NFP data this week, I reckon USDJPY at least has to fall to the Moving Average 50.
I don't know if the price will break above the upper channel line; what I know is this price zone has the best risk-reward ratio since it is precisely on the upper channel line.
The NFP data might change the outcome of this analysis, maybe USDJPY will break the upper channel line, or perhaps it will keep falling to retest the bottom channel line; time will tell.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breaks above the upper channel line.
Potential RetracementIt was a pretty good analysis; the previous analysis predicted the bottom (Click the chart below).
My chart shows that potentially AUD/USD will make a retracement to 38.20% to 50% Fibonacci retracement. This analysis is purely based on the technical analysis, without calculating the impact of Russia / Ukraine / NATO.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the 0.755 price level
It was a PERFECT analysis that finally hit the target Click the link in the Yellow circle to see the previous analysis.
It was a perfect analysis; I predicted that after the Australia open international border news came out (chart attached below).
Currently, All eyes are waiting for the US unemployment data, and also Powell will testify later on in the US session.
Technically, so far, the price is precisely retesting the major down trendline. If the price can breakout and close above the major down trendline, I reckon AUD potentially will keep climbing to 0.737 area. However, if AUD rejects the major down trendline, there's a possibility that it will retrace to the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. Based on the Moving average 50 and 200, currently, I remain bullish.
Please DO NOT enter the trade blindly because this analysis is the follow-up analysis and not a suggestion to buying AUD right now, very BAD price!
Catalyst:
- US Unemployment
- Powell testify
- US PMI
- NFP
Follow-up analysis - Short termIt was an excellent analysis; EUR/USD reached the third target at 1.147 zones, and right now, it is back to retest the same support at broken major down trendline (Red line).
Currently, all market conditions are volatile because of Russia x Ukraine issues; any incoming breaking news could change the market direction.
On the weekly timeframe (chart attached below), we can see that right now; the price is sitting on a broken major down trendline (Red line). The market broke this major downtrend line in July 2020. However, I agree that there's a possibility that the price could keep falling deeper to retest the decade's super strong support (Yellow line) at 1. 05 - 1.06 area. But, as long as the price stays above the red broken major down trendline, my initial plan remains the same, which is EUR potentially climbing to 1.223.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close below the red support
Important event:
- Fed Chair Powell Testifies
- NFP
- Russia x Ukraine news
- DXY movement
Gold rallies on Ukraine Russia war talkI always love to predict the reversal; that's always been my strategy. Currently, gold price gains are likely to be driven by the Ukraine x Russia tensions, and it's all news-driven price action.
Based on the technical analysis, 1915-1925 is strong resistance, and it was June 2021 high. If the price rejects the resistance, potentially, gold will reverse, or at least fall to retest the 38.20% to 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, maybe below.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if Gold breakout and close above 1915-1925 Resistance
Catalyst:
- Ukraine x Russia x US news
Caution:
- Keep monitoring Ukraine x Russia x US news
Potentially one of the greatest trades of this yearI'm not following the Euro news, economy, and politics, but based on the technical analysis, currently, my chart shows that potentially EURUSD has already reached the bottom. The price is now at the broken weekly trendline and the bottom of the potential falling wedge pattern. When the falling wedge pattern is found in a downward trend, it is considered a reversal pattern, as the contraction of the range indicates the downtrend is losing steam.
This analysis is purely based on the technical analysis, but next week maybe EUR Monetary Policy Statement and ECB Press Conference could be the catalyst to push EUR higher to breaks the upper falling wedge line.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close below the weekly down trendline.
Zoom out the weekly chart
Nice Risk Reward RatioThe US Fed's emergency meeting and Russia Invasion news caused the crazy spiked on Gold, its news-driven price action.
Technically, I see an excellent risk-reward ratio to shorting Gold. If the price stays below the red resistance, I reckon Gold at least will fall to the target 1, 2, and 3 to retest the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.
Be cautious of another breaking news on the weekend; we never know.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the red resistance
Even though I know, DXY does not always have a perfect correlation with the Gold price. Currently, DXY is still above the Trendline and potentially will retest the 97.7 level.
Potential HUGE trade - Nice Risk Reward ratioCurrently, the price is retesting the June 12, 2021, and December 5, 2021, Minor trendline. As long as the price stays above this line, I reckon AUDUSD will start to climb to retest the February 25, 2021 Down trendline. However, a breakout below this support, AUDUSD potentially falls deeper to retest June 12, 2021 low at a 0.67 level.
Catalyst:
- AUD Cash rate
- RBA Rate Statement
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- US JOLTS Job Openings
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- US Unemployment
- ISM Services PMI
- NFP
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout the Red support
Potentially a bear flag at the 50% Fibonacci retracement. The last drop was from 1853 to 1780 (Chart attached below); it was a pretty good trade for the seller.
If we draw a Fibonacci retracement from 1853 to 1780, the 50% Fib is currently at the 1816-1820 zone. The 50% Fib indicates that the Bearish momentum is not that strong.
Also, I notice a potential bear flag pattern, a pretty lovely risk-reward ratio to try to sell gold down at least to the bottom flag line, maybe below if it can break out below the bottom bear flag line.
This week, there's not much high-impact US data, so most likely, it's all based on the price action.
The catalyst:
- US CPI
- Unemployment Claims
- 30-y Bond Auction
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the upper bear flag line and the 61.80% Fib retracement at 1825 Zone.
Target:
- There are many short-term targets, mid-term targets at the bottom flag lines, Long-term targets maybe below at 1760-1680 zone.
Bitcoin "Death Cross" ??!!Here's the analysis that I shared on November 10, 2021
ibb.co
I remembered a few months ago, many "Trader / Investor" kept saying that Bitcoin would go up to 100k before the year ends. Even an Uber driver gave me some insight to keep buying the bitcoin when the price was at 65k; he predicted the price would go up to 100k by December 2021 because someone "expert" in his "Investor group chat" said so. Crypto's markets are full of a newcomer with an unrealistic ideas without even having basic knowledge of technical and fundamental analysis, all only based on "He says She says."
Bitcoin climb to 100k? Sure! But when, why, and how? What's the reason?
Currently, I see a death cross on the daily time frame, and it was a double top on the weekly reached the peak on November 8, 2021 (Chart attached below)
The neckline at 28k-30k zones, a breakout below 28k will bring it deeper to 18k-20k. However, if the price rejects the neckline 28k-30k, Bitcoin potentially will continue the rally.
January Forecast - Continue the rally ?Technically, DXY is still in bullish momentum. As long as the price stays above the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, I reckon DXY will give one more push to visit 97.7. However, a price breakout and close below the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement indicate that DXY will fall deeper to retest the 50% Fib.
What we know so far, Powell signals rate hikes and balance sheet runoff, but yields hold steady, CPI 0.5% and Core CPI 0.6%, U.S. jobless claims rise by 23,000 to 230,000.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close below 38.20% Fibonacci retracement
Catalyst:
- U.S. Sales data
- Manufacturing Index
- Unemployment claims
Nice risk-reward ratio - Potential BIG tradeThe gold price has been ranging in 1784-1832 level since December 2021. Based on the price action right now, there's a possibility that gold will fall to restest the bottom flag line at 1780-60 zone.
What we know so far, Powell signals rate hikes and balance sheet runoff, but yields hold steady, CPI 0.5% and Core CPI 0.6%, U.S. jobless claims rise by 23,000 to 230,000.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the upper flag line
Catalyst:
- U.S. Sales data
- Manufacturing Index
- Unemployment claims
Simple analysis - Potential BIG tradeSometimes we need to make the chart as simple as possible to understand the market direction. I only use one minor trendline and one support line in this analysis.
So far, the price has already breakout and closed below the "red" line, a pretty strong indication that the market potential will be falling deeper to retest the 1760s neckline.
Tomorrow Fed Chair Powell will testify, and also we all waiting for the high-impact US data to give us more clues about the next direction of the gold price.
Catalyst:
- Fed Chair Powell Testifies
- CPI
- PPI
- Sales data
- Unemployment
- Bonds auction
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the "red" line
