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XAU/USD 29 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 27 October 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Gold’s rally persists amid the Fed’s dovish tone and heightened geopolitical tensions, solidifying its safe-haven appeal. Price has printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling, but not yet confirming, the start of bearish pullback phase. Intraday Expectation: Despite the bearish CHoCH, price has yet to pull back into the internal 50% EQ discount. We could see a reaction at the H4 supply level before any confirmation of bearish pullback initiation. Technical Note: The strong high at 2,758.525 is anticipated to remain protected. However, with CHoCH positioning on the daily timeframe somewhat distant, price may print a bullish iBOS in the near term to align with the daily timeframe’s movement. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis/intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 24 October 2024. Yesterday's intraday expectation was not met, as price failed to target the weak internal high and instead printed a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). This aligns with the H4 timeframe being in a pullback phase. As previously highlighted, price remains highly volatile, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed's softer stance. Price has since printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting but not confirming the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Currently, price is trading within a well-established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is reacting around the 50% equilibrium of the internal range and may also react at nested H4 and M15 supply levels before targeting the weak internal low. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
2
Gold's Next Move: Will It Rebound to $2720 After a Pullback?This analysis offers an exploration of XAUUSD (Gold) price fluctuations. Recently, Gold traded at approximately $2400—a crucial support level—and subsequently commenced an ascent within a broadening wedge formation. After surpassing the $2400 threshold, it corrected toward the support line of the wedge; however, it then surged upwards, breaking the $2635 mark. The price later encountered the resistance line, but it has since begun to decline. I anticipated that Gold might retreat to the support line of the wedge before rebounding and transcending $2635 once more, aiming for $2720.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Elysian_Mind
XAU/USD 10 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Intraday expectation/Bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 09 October 2024. Analysis dated 06 October 2024 was accurate, with price targeting the weak internal low and printing a bearish iBOS. We are now trading between an internal high and fractal low. CHoCH positioning is still quite a distance from current price, so it’s possible that price may print new lows to bring CHoCH closer to current price. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to print a bullish CHoCH to indicate the initiation of a bullish pullback phase, keeping the above scenario in mind. I advise caution due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Fed's dovish stance. However, we will remain systematic in our approach. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Intraday expectation/Bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 09 October 2024. Analysis (08 October 2024) was accurate, with price pulling back, printing a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), reacting at the premium of the 50% internal equilibrium (EQ), and then targeting weak internal low, ultimately printing a bearish iBOS. We are now trading between an internal high and fractal low. Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to print a bullish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Bullish CHoCH positioning is marked with a blue dotted line. Price is likely to react at the premium of the 50% EQ or the M15 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD - Dirty TradingRange ZoneFX:XAUUSD is currently trading in a tight range between $2,635 support and $2,670 resistance. This narrow range has been challenging, with several fakeouts making it tricky to navigate. The support zone around $2,635 is holding strong, while the $2,670 resistance has prevented further upside movement. CAPITALCOM:GOLD traders should watch for clear breaks above or below these levels before committing to positions. Expect more choppy action within this “dirty” range until a decisive breakout occurs.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Sober_Trading
XAU/USD 04 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: intraday expectation remains unchanged from yesterday's analysis (02 October 2024). -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has continued its surge, reaching all-time highs with minimal pullbacks. The bearish swing pullback phase has been confirmed by a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which has also established the current swing range. At present, we are trading between the swing high and internal low. Price has now printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting, but not confirming initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Additionally, the price has reacted from the premium zone above the 50% internal equilibrium (EQ). Intraday Expectation: The expectation is for price to target a weak internal low. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price did not meet yesterday's intraday expectation, as the internal structure flipped from bearish to bullish, with the price printing a bullish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). A bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) has been printed, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase, and an internal range has been established. It is expected that the price will trade down to the premium zone of the 50% internal equilibrium (EQ) or the M15 demand zone. Intraday Expectation: Technically, the price is expected to target the weak internal high. Given that the H4 timeframe appears to be in a bearish pullback phase, any bullish momentum is likely to be short-lived. With rising geopolitical tensions, coupled with a dovish stance from the Fed, Gold is expected to remain highly volatile in the short term. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
2
XAU/USD 02 October 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has continued its surge, reaching all-time highs with minimal pullbacks. The bearish swing pullback phase has been confirmed by a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS), which has also established the current swing range. At present, we are trading between the swing high and internal low. Price has now printed a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting, but not confirming initiation of a bullish pullback phase. Additionally, the price has reacted from the premium zone above the 50% internal equilibrium (EQ). Intraday Expectation: The expectation is for price to target a weak internal low. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. The price met expectations by targeting a weak internal low and printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). As previously noted, price action has been erratic due to ongoing macroeconomic data and heightened geopolitical tensions. Since the last analysis, the price printed a double bullish iBOS, likely driven by the escalation of geopolitical tensions. The price has also printed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting, but not confirming the initiation of a bearish pullback phase. Currently, price is positioned at the extreme of a strong internal low, with wicks into this level but no decisive close below. Intraday Expectation: The price is expected to target a weak internal high. However, caution is advised, as the H4 timeframe has confirmed the swing pullback phase with a bearish iBOS, which could limit further upside momentum. With rising geopolitical tensions, Gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the short term. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 12 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 11 September 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following bullish iBOS price did not pull back to either H4 POI's or discount of internal 50% EQ which indicates XAU strength. Recent economic data, particularly from the US has influenced market sentiment such as softer US employment data leading to an expectation of a more softer approach from the Fed which typically supports Gold prices. Intraday expectation: Whilst price has continued bullish it is my concern that price did not pull back deep enough to grab liquidity in order to sustain a bullish push. Looking to the left price has made several failed attempts. Price should technically target weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge. Nonetheless, I will continue with systematic rules of analysis. Technically price should target weak internal low, therefore, my bias will remain unchanged until M15 candle break and close above swing high. Price is currently reacting at another M15 supply zone. Intraday expectation: Price is close to extreme premium of internal 50% EQ. Price to target weak internal low. My bias will remain unchanged until and unless M15 candle close above strong swing high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 06 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 05 September 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Due to several factors such as geopolitical tensions and many macroeconomic factors XAU continues to surge. Nonetheless, I will continue with systematic rules of analysis. Technically price should target weak internal low, therefore, my bias will remain unchanged until M15 candle break and close above swing high. Price has targeted weak internal low but the move was not sustained which indicates that price may be seeking further liquidity. We are seeing a secondary reaction to previous M15 supply zone. Intraday expectation: Price is in premium of internal 50% EQ. Price to target weak internal low. My bias will remain unchanged until and unless M15 candle close above strong swing high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
2
XAU/USD 03 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price is stuck within an internal range and is most probably awaiting a catalyst (macroeconomic or geopolitical) Technically price should target weak internal low and is currently reacting at premium of internal 50% EQ, however, price has ben printing low volume bars with no clear internal range direction. Intraday expectation: Price is in premium of internal 50% EQ with strong high remaining protected. Price to target weak internal low. My bias will remain unchanged until and unless M15 candle close above strong internal high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 26 August 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. As mentioned in previous analysis whereby we needed to be mindful that H4, following bullish iBOS, has yet to initiate bearish pullback, therefore, it would not be unexpected if strong internal low was to be targeted. This is exactly what price printed, printing a bearish iBOS. Price has printed bullish CHoCH indicating bullish pullback phase initiation. Intraday expectation: Price is currently positioned almost in extreme of internal 50% EQ. Strong high to remain protected. Price to target weak internal low. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 28 June 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Analysis/Bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 27 June 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. As previously mentioned, price reacted at 50% EQ of the internal range to target weak internal low, however, price was unable to close below internal low due to H4 demand zone. Nonetheless, internal structure remains bearish until strong internal high is taken out. Intraday expectation: Price could potentially be seeking further liquidity to once again target weak internal low. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a series of bullish iBOS' and price has now aligned itself with swing structure Price has reacted from discount zone of 50% EQ. Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
GOLD (XAU)US inflation eased less than expected in September to 8%, and underlying prices excluding food and energy prices accelerated to a new four decade high Core CPI gained at its highest annual pace in 40 years, rising 0.6% for the month and 6.6% for the year and Fed funds futures are now pricing in 75 bps in December, up from 50. Moreover, terminal rate expectations rose to 4.85% in March. As a consequence, the 10-year Treasury yield rallied to 4.080% while the 2-year yield was up to 4.535%. As measured by the DXY index, the US dollar dropped by 1% to almost 112.14 as risk sentiment returned to markets. At the time of writing, the DXY index is down by some 0.73% having fallen from a high of 113.92 to a low of 112.147 so far Gold close to very important support level 1550-1500 and If it break down then we go back 1450-1400 support zone 1300-1200 is a good buy and long zone , my short position at 1940 is still open Can bears break 1500 support zone?
TVC:GOLDShort
by moonypto
10
Elevated Inflation News Amplify Safe Haven Demand for Gold 🧈Abstract: Recent inflation data from the Federal Reserve has fueled concerns over persistent price pressures. In this environment, gold's inherent value as a haven asset stands to benefit. My open-source Adaptive MFT Extremum Pivots indicator, which can be applied across various markets, reveals support and resistance levels on the gold market. Based on these calculations, the nearest resistance zone lies around $2055, while the mathematical middle of all resistances is estimated to be around $2072. A potential trade setup involves purchasing gold upon breaching the nearest resistance level. Aim for a target price slightly above the resistance level, allowing for potential retracements. Establish a stop-loss order below the recent price consolidation zone. Alternatively, consider purchasing gold upon bouncing from the nearest support level. Aim slightly above the resistance level, again with a stop-loss order below the recent price consolidation zone. --- Dear Esteemed Readers, Fellow Analysts, I. News Catalyst: 1: Higher-Than-Expected Inflation Reading: The recent inflation data from the Federal Reserve suggests persistent inflationary pressures. Implications for Gold: 2: Safe Haven Demand Amplified: Gold's inherent value as a haven asset is further enhanced amidst heightened inflation. 3: Technical Outlook Optimistic: Gold's recent price trend and favorable technical indicators indicate potential upside movement. II. Chart Description: 1: Indicator: I've used my open-source Adaptive MFT Extremum Pivots indicator to autonomously compute the support and resistance levels. I tried to write this indicator, which you find among relevant publications, as general as I could. The gold market is only one of my choices where I deployed this script. You can try it on any of this and any other markets. If you've got feedback, I'd be happy to update what I've got or create a new branch to experiment with your unique approach. You can change the indicator without coding knowledge through the user configuration block like colors and precision (!) per the documentation I wrote. The script is "adaptive" because you'll always get a bit of different data on the same market depending on the moment you use this indicator. But that's good because you can monitor the data velocity between time points with this knowledge. As I mentioned, the script is general and in the following, I'll explain how it helped me to write this particular analytics on the gold market. 2: Data Explanation and Chart Elements: You can find the script's window in the bottom right corner of the chart. As you can see in the center of the table, the Pivot point is about $2044.948. The script computed this data from a monthly timeframe. In the upper half of the window, you find the monthly high ($2075.430), monthly low ($2033.940), weekly high ($2148.990), and weekly low ($2020.135) values on this market. The latter two data came from a weekly timeframe. So, you can consider this analytics to be a Multi-TimeFrame Analytics (MTF or MTFA, see the keywords. S1, S2, and S3 mean three support levels (green lines on the chart) and R1, R2, and R3 mean three resistance levels (red lines on the chart). I named the levels according to their distance from the pivot point. S1/R1 are the closest and S3/R3 are the most distant levels. The actual price is $2033.050. The price's a bit below the pivot point, which could be a bearish signal. In this context, however, I'd call it a retracement because it's above the double support levels of $2020 and $1998. The third support level is around $1971. If you remember my messages from the chat, you know I estimated the support zone around $2000, see the green zone on the chart, which aligns with the mathematical middle level of the support levels. I believe these computations could make a bit of sense because if you look to the left of the chart, you'll see how the price bounced repeatedly from either of these supports or got rejected at either of these resistances. I'd point out the interval between 19 April and 02 May 2023 to observe these price actions. With the price consolidating above all the support levels, I'd estimate an attempt to breach the resistances. The nearest resistance is around $2055 while the mathematical middle of all the resistances is around $2072, see the red zone on the chart. If the positive news persists on the market, I estimate the price could reach as high as $2055 (R1), $2087 (R2), and $2098 (R3). You find all these data with higher precision in the bottom half of the script's window, the bottom right corner of the chart. The dotted arrows depict various price scenarios that gold could follow. The more pronounced the bullish momentum, the less retracement we can expect. In the most optimistic scenario, gold could reach resistance R3 from its current support levels. However, if demand weakens, the price might briefly dip to support S2 or even S3. Still, a breakdown below S3 would be necessary to invalidate the bullish trend. As long as the bullish trend remains intact, resistances R1 and R2 remain attainable targets. Below, I propose some possible positions according to a support/resistance strategy. You can interpret the market in various ways and the sentiment dynamically changes. That's why I made the script adaptive. You can load to your chart any time and see the market dynamics. Furthermore, I'm open to all confirmation, conflicting, extending, or questioning opinions of yours. III. Trade Setup: Entry Point: Consider purchasing gold upon breaching the nearest resistance level. Target Price: Aim slightly above the resistance level, allowing for potential retracement. Stop-Loss: Establish a stop-loss order below the recent price consolidation zone. And: Entry Point: Consider purchasing gold upon bouncing from the nearest support level. Target Price: Aim slightly above the resistance level, allowing for potential retracement. Stop-Loss: Establish a stop-loss order below the recent price consolidation zone. IV. Risk Disclosure: Please note: This is solely a speculative outlook based on current economic developments and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in financial markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Kind regards, Ely
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Elysian_Mind
3
Gold Rush with AI: Is a Bullish Trend broken?Dear Esteemed TradingView Members, I n the intricate dance of financial markets, recent analytics hinted at a potential dip in Gold prices towards the next support zone, resting delicately around the current trendline and $1920. In a broader view of gold, the prevailing trend remains steadfastly bullish. The recent descent, therefore, wasn't a harbinger of a bearish trend but rather a retracement within the overarching bullish narrative. Retracements, akin to ripples in a vast river, move against the current without altering its course. I n this light, the bullish trajectory of Gold persists, despite the transient shadow of bearish developments. The true nature of this episode—whether a mere retracement within a bullish trajectory or the inception of a bearish divergence—might unveil itself by the first quarter of 2024. For those inclined towards the former, signs may include ascending RSI values, dwindling volume bars, and price actions hovering modestly above the demand zone. H owever, should this unfold as a pivot towards a bearish trajectory, anticipate a descent where RSI mirrors the fall in price, breaching the demand zone, and volume maintains its pressure at a consistent or escalating level? While my inclination leans towards the bullish scenario, it's imperative to remain vigilant of the alternate narrative. N avigating the dynamic terrain of financial markets involves intuition and a judicious blend of analytical prowess and cutting-edge tools. In my recent analysis, I utilized Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) to sculpt the contours of my demand zone, adding a layer of sophistication to the predictive landscape. So, what are GBMs? G radient Boosting Machines stand as a formidable force in machine learning. A distinguished member of the ensemble learning family, GBMs artfully weave together multiple decision trees, harmonizing their collective insights to refine predictions. While their computational prowess is undeniable, it's worth noting that GBMs tread on the more resource-intensive side, making them a powerful yet demanding ally in the quest for accuracy. A dvantages of GBMs include the capacity to attain high accuracy levels and tackle intricately woven datasets with finesse. However, this prowess comes at a cost—GBMs can be computationally demanding during the training phase and exhibit sensitivity to the choice of hyperparameters. I n tandem with GBMs, my analysis delves into the nuanced language of financial indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and volume. RSI, a stalwart in technical analytics, gauges the magnitude of recent price changes, offering insights into the overbought or oversold nature of an asset. Volume is the heartbeat of market movements, signaling the intensity and sustainability of price shifts. T ogether, these tools form a symphony of insights, guiding us through the intricate dance of market dynamics. As always, this isn't investment advice but a shared exploration of market intricacies. Your funds are your responsibility, and understanding the tools at your disposal empowers you in this journey. It isn't investment advice but a nudge to delve into your research. Your funds are your responsibility—handle them with care. Embrace risk-management strategies, explore available safety nets, and prioritize the preservation of funds over fleeting gains. Warm regards, Ely
TVC:GOLDLong
by Elysian_Mind
2