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Gold depends on $ & supporting by Silver week aheadXAUUSD Technical Overview: Week Pivot: 1191.82 Week Key Resistance: 1200.74 - 1206.16 -1215.16 Week Key Support: 1182.90 - 1177.4 - 1168.48 Technical Indicator: Moving Average: SMA 200 (1196.65) & SMA 55 (1198.28) strong resistance for gold. RSI: The indicator shows downward momentum & having strong resistance at 53.41 level (See in chart) Technical Trade Idea for week: Most Likely Scenario: Long above 1191.40 with target 1200 - 1205 in extension. Alternative Scenario: Short below 1191.40 with target 1182 - 1176 in extension. Fundamental: Gold hit a fresh six-week low late in the week, but a strong performance in silver, coupled with profit-taking in the U.S. Dollar ahead of the week-end, helped the market recover nearly half of the week’s loss. Although the direction of gold prices will be primarily influenced by the U.S. Dollar. Traders should also pay attention to the price action in the silver market. Silver is being supported because it is relatively cheap. Additionally, it could be attracting buyers due to inflationary expectations and industrial demand during the current economic expansion. This makes it a more attractive asset relative to gold. This may be just enough to bring in the buyers. Now that the news is out there, look for heightened volatility. Economic news that could influence the U.S. Dollar and gold prices next week are U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the Balance of Trade. Additionally, investors will get the opportunity to react to the September Non-Farm Payrolls report. The headline number is expected to show the economy added 185K jobs last month. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to have risen 0.3% and the Unemployment Rate is expected to dip to 3.8%. The dollar will continue to be influenced by Treasury yields and worries over Italy. We’re going to approach the market early in the week as if a stronger dollar will make gold weak. However, we’ll quickly shift to an upside bias if another rally in silver takes control of the gold market and drags prices higher. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
Gold has been in consolidating within the familiar sidewaysXAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1196.20 Key Resistance: 1200.55 - 1204.25 - 1207.89 - 1212.66 Key Support: 1196.20 - 1193.55 - 1191.89 - 1188.29 Day Trading Range: 1205 - 1188 Technical Indicator: RSI: RSI indicates upside bias with 52 level. Moving Average: SMA 55(1200.54) , SMA 100(1202.22) & SMA 200(1201.43) these all are major resistance for Gold today. Overall, With respect to the Fed fund futures yields, these continued to price 100% chance of a hike this week while the chance of another hike in Dec is priced at 90%. Much will now depend on the Fed's dots and median forecast, but anything uber-dovish could well see a huge unwind in the greenback and gold at these levels will all of a sudden look like good value and it may even take up market's preference for its safe-haven status again which would put it on course for a sizeable reversal. On the other hand, should the FOMC event be taken as more hawkish than expected, the dollar is likely to take back its title on the board of FX and weigh heavily on gold leading to a potential breakout of this extended period of consolidation. Gold has been range bound since mid-August and is likely to remain in this state of flux as long as the Fed doesn’t do something widely unexpected on Wednesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points on Wednesday. This event has already been priced into the market. Gold is not likely to move on this news, but traders could react to any news on the path of future rate hikes. For example, a dovish Fed monetary policy statement could put upside pressure on gold, while threatening to trigger a breakout above the key resistance level at $1220.70. The Fed cutting back on the number of rate hikes in 2019 or removing the word “accommodating” from its policy statement would be supportive. Gold could break further if the Fed continues to press for more rate hikes in 2019 in order to gain control of rising inflation, or if it leaves the word “accommodating” in its monetary policy statement. Additionally, gold could fall further if escalating trade tensions between the United States and China drives investors into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar. Today’s Home Price Index (HPI) is expected to show an increase of 0.2%. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to come in at 6.2%. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report is expected to come in at 132.2, slightly below the previously reported 133.4. The Richmond Manufacturing Index is forecast at 22, down from 24. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
Yellow Metal Gold Weaken After China Cancels Trade MeetingXAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1200.20 Key Resistance: $1199.85 - $1204.28 - $1207.47 - $1211.89 Key Support: $1194.33- $1191.56 - $1188.00 - $1186.66 Day Trading Range: $1204 - $1186 Technical Indicator: RSI: The indicator lacks upside momentum, moving below 50 level. Moving Average: SMA 100 ($1199.65), SMA 200 ($1198.45), SMA 50 ($1201.50) strong resistance for Gold today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1200.20 with targets at 1193.25 & 1189.85 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1200.20 look for further upside with 1204.55 & 1207.10 as targets. Overall,Driving the price action in gold last week was the U.S. Dollar. For most of the week, gold was underpinned by a weaker U.S. Dollar. On Friday, however, gold managed to give back all of its weekly gains when the dollar rebounded to the upside. Driving the U.S. Dollar’s price action was the investor response to fresh tariffs by the U.S. and China. The trade dispute and the dollar will continue to drive the price action in gold this week. However, this week, the dollar could strengthen and gold could weaken. This is because China called off the trade talks with the United States and said it wouldn’t meet with high level negotiators until after the November mid-term elections. Also contributing to the movement in gold will be the outcome of this week’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting which culminates with the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 26. Although the Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate during the meeting, gold traders will be primarily focused on the direction the Fed will chart ahead. Traders essentially want to know how aggressive the Fed will be in increasing rates in the future. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
Gold continue to pay attention to several things at onceXAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1205.20 Day Trading Range: $1200.00 - $1218.50 Key Resistance: $1210.66 - $1214.59 - $1217.33 - $1221.20 Key Support: $1205.20 - $1203.25 - $1200.00 - $1196.28 Technical Indicators: RSI: Indicator lacks downside momentum, moving around 64 level. Moving Average: SMA 20($1203.63) & SMA 55($1200.71) strong support for Gold. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1205.20 with targets at 1212.45 & 1215.38 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1205.20 look for further downside with 1203.25 & 1199.89 as targets Overall, Gold continue to pay attention to several things at once, as there are fears about the trade war, questions about whether the Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates in that environment, and then of course a lot of fear in the emerging markets. This has made the precious metals sector very difficult to trade at times, if you are looking at short-term charts. However, all one has to do is zoom out to the longer-term charts and recognize that we are in a major downtrend. This isn’t to say the gold can’t rally, most certainly can and it has. However there are levels where we see a lot of resistance previously. This is seen just above at the $1215 level, which should be a bit of a challenge to get above. That’s not to say that we can’t break above there, but we need some help from the US dollar. Thanks YoCryptoManic
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
Yellow Metal Looking Go Forward But $$ trying to StopXAUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: $1196 - $1216 Pivot: $1201.20 Key Resistance: $1205.25 - $1208.36 - $1212 - $1215.45 Key Support: $1201.20 - $1198.33 - $1194.20 - $1192.10 Technical Indicators: RSI: Indicator shows upside momentum, moving above 50 level. MACD: MacD having bullish trend line. Moving Average: SMA 100 ($1199.89) & SMA 200 ($1199.10) strong support for Gold. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above $1201.10 with targets at $1208.45 & $1212 in extension. Alternative scenario: below $1201.10 look for further downside with $1198.25 & $1194.50 as targets. Fundamental: Gold move depends on Dollar today 1) The US housing starts rose strong 9.2% m/m in August while building permits decreased -5.7% m/m in the same month. 2) The US initial jobless claims are expected to increase to 210K in the week ending September 14. 3) Philadelphia Fed index is expected to increase to 17.0 in September from 11.9 in August. Thanks YoCryptoManic
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
European Session Gold keen observing "sensitive US dollar"XAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1197.10 Day Trading Range: $1194 - $1214 Key Resistance: $1204.45 - $1207.29 - $1212.66 - $1218.89 Key Support: $1197.10 - $1194.22 - $1191.45 - $1189.56 Technical Indicator: RSI: RSI lacks downside momentum, trading above 50 level. Moving Average: SMA200($1198.94) & SMA100($1200.48) strong support for xauusd today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1197.10 with targets at 1205.50 & 1207.56 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1197.10 look for further downside with 1194.50 & 1189.45 as targets. Overall, Gold remains in a sideways consolidation between 1214 and 1182 but is making the case for a break higher according to the bullish symmetrical triangle. For bulls to get back control, whereby the market is heavily short of gold and to reconsider its positioning, (net speculative short positions, or bets an asset’s price will fall, in gold, are up 275% year to date), then they need to get and hold above the 50-D SMA at 1211 first, then 1214 which is resistance and then the 200-W SMA at 1233 will need to be challenged. A retry of the downside now should target 1146/20 monthly levels. Fundamentally, the intensifying U.S.-China trade dispute is the driver ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. However, we have only seen modest moves in the greenback so far and markets, in fact, took the trade headlines in their stride. Even with President Donald Trump announcing $200 billion tariffs against China on Monday that provoked an expected and swift retaliation from the nation, fear has yet to really show up in the market and the US benchmarks were higher with the DJIA making another all-time record high. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
European Session "Golden Eye" on WarXAUUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: $1188.85 - $1207.27 Pivot: $1202 Key Resistance: $1202 - $1205.35 - $1207.89 - $1212.33 Key Support: $1196.28 - $1194.69 - $1191.89 - $1189.21 Technical Indicators: RSI: Indicator is confusing where to go, moving around 50 level, trend downward (See chart RSI). MACD: MacD is having negative volume for xauusd. Moving Avg: SMA55 ($1198.74) strong support & SMA200 ($1199.78) which is CMP (time of writing). Technical Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1202.00 with targets at 1196.28 & 1192.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1202.00 look for further upside with 1205.85 & 1208.65 as targets. Overall Review: Trade war fears continue to be a major issue as well, which almost certainly looks likely to pick up a bit. We think that the Gold markets will continue to be very range bound, with the $1195 level underneath the be supportive, and the $1215 level above should be resistive. Overall, this is a market that we think should continue to see volatility, but we also recognize that we are more than likely going to move with the US dollar, as we have seen for some time now. we think at this point though, it’s probably easier to short this market at higher levels than anything else, because the move has been extended so rapidly during the day on Monday. Thanks YoCryptoManic
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
European Session XAUUSD, Fight between Bears & BullsXAUUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: $1186 - $1208 Pivot: 1198.00 (CMP XAUUSD $1199.11) Key Resistance: $1200.00 - $1205.45 - 1212.85 Key Support: $1196.27 - $1192.69 - $1188.55 Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1198.00 with targets at 1204.00 & 1207.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1198.00 look for further downside with 1196.50 & 1193.00 as targets. Technical Indicators: MACD: MacD lacks with a bullish bias. Moving Avg: SMA200 ($1205.03) strong resistance & SMA100 ($1195.46) strong support for the day. Fundamentals: I think that gold markets are going to continue to struggle at the hands of the US dollar though, and of course the situation that we have seen in the emerging markets. Because of this, it’s likely that we will continue to struggle for longer-term direction overall, and I think that we continue to see the five dollar levels offer both support and resistance. As I record this, the $1205 level looks as if it is trying to offer a bit of support. In general, this is a very messy market so it’s more or less the realm of scalpers. However, I would be willing to buy physical gold and in fact have a couple of times recently as I think longer-term this is going to be thought of as a very cheap level. The jobs number coming out today will of course have a lot of influence on the US dollar, which by extension will have a lot of influence on gold. Thanks YoCyptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
Part 7 - Risk-off August - XAU/USD DailyXAU/USD – Daily Resistance & Support: Resistance: 1250.00 / 1260.00 / 1300.00 / 1340.00 / 1380.00 / 1420.00 / 1480.00 Support: 1210.00 / 1195.00 / 1160.00 / 1115.00 / 1080.00 XAU/USD – Summary: Expected to start a Bullish Corrective Structure in a three-swings sequence at or around the 1195.00 levels and possibly retest the 1260.00 – 1300.00 vibration area. Bearish Impulse expected around the 1260.00 – 1300.00 area, towards the possible retest of the 1125.00 December 2016 lows and the pattern’s completion. If all scenarios would turn out to unfold as expected and Gold would retest the 1115.00 levels, then that specific area could be seen by bulls as an opportunity for longs, which could even reach the 1480.00 levels in an Impulse.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by EW4X
4
A Crucial point for GOLD (XAU), Will we break 5year resistance?Gold is bouncing around near an in the meantime historic resistance level (highlighted as the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement level in yellow). If we look back at the second half of 2013 (see below), we see how it tries to break through but lacks the required juice to go for the 50% level. Somewhere beginning 2014, we see a second failed attempt. The yellow-ish circles show a couple of more tests of this resistance level, making it a hard and resistant brick that by now will need a strong karate-kick in order for it to get broken. Luckily for gold, the fundamentals of the markets are shifting somewhat, likely in favour of gold. For example, several concerns are being raised on the plausible overheating of the equity markets. I myself have also gotten the creeps of the European leading index (DAX30) chart , as well as when I was looking at the S&P500 chart . Other rationales include the high valuations in terms of P/E etc. In any case, gold has proven itself to be an interesting alternative in times of market turmoil, so fundamentally, we might have some positives going for gold. DAX 30 Graph (EU leading index) - See how we are trading close to long term trend channel top, and (see post itself) have a double top, a head & shoulder figure, etc.) S&P500 Graph - similar points as with the DAX30 graph: Zooming out on the chart and looking at the weekly going back almost 15 years, we can see a clear white support line at the bottom, and another white support line that actually got broken previously. We are now trading under that level and trying to get back above. As you can see, that big white channel resistance line is close to making a cross with the yellow 61,8% Fibonacci resistance. Moreover, we have an ascending triangle formation in the shorter term, highlighted by the two ticker light blue lines . Therefore, we are at a rather historic moment where gold has the potential to break through , which would likely lift it up to the next target at $1489 (a 10-11ish % increase compared to current levels). After which it would be able to propel higher. The opposite scenario is that once again, gold fails to break through the heavy resistance, likely causing it t o bounce back to the 0.25 Fibonacci speed resistance line (the smaller whitish diagonal line). Indicators seem to be in favour of positive momentum (MACD and RSI): Finally, you can also let yourself be guided by the Fibonacci speed resistance line, these are quite good to work with in parallel with the horizontals, to get an idea of resistance and support areas, see the highlights in yellow: Conclusion: - Equity markets are showing signs of overheating, which would be quite logical after such a long bull market. My previous posts on the DAX30 &the S&P500 provide more background for those interested. - Gold is again testing the 2013 resistance horizontal (coinciding with the 61,8% Fibonacci level). This time MIGHT be different, but remember that there are at least 2 scenario's (up or out). - RSI and MACD show positive momentum. - We have an ascending triangle formation. - Several positive signals for a potential small bull run for gold, which would give an initial return of +-10% versus current levels if the first Fibo target (50% would be hit).
FX:XAUUSD
by A_Cryptastic_Mind
XAUUSD approaching its resistance, potential to drop!XAUUSD approaching its resistance at 1339 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where a potential reaction could occur, causing price to fall to its 1st support at 1319 (61.8% Fibonacci extension horizontal overlap support). If it breaks past this level, it could potentially fall to its next support at 1305 (61.8^ Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support). We have also identified another resistance at 1361 (horizontal swing high resistance). Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reaction could occur.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ICmarkets
GOLD shorting opportunityGOLD looking to go more to the downside. Short @ 1300 SL: 1314.74 TP:12658.09 Follow us for more quality trades. September we had gather 1000+ pips. *Disclaimer : This analysis not include personal feeling/opinion, and pure base on technical analysis Trading foreign currencies and crypto currencies can be risky and potentially profitable opportunity for investors. However, before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by SmarterFxCapital
XAUUSD (Gold)We could possibly see gold heading up before a big sell-off at the area of 1245-1250, we shall see how price and time react at certain area and time frame! possibly reaching 1210 weekly key level PS: This is not a trading signal just a market idea, please use a valid strategy to enter this trade, if you are not educated enough do not trade it! wait for clarity and correct signs before entering the trade! there is no 100% guarantee in trades! know how to risk manage your trades! AceTeam FX #Forex #forextrader #forextraders #forexmarket
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by AceTeamFx