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Goldencross

🚨BTC Macro Cycle: "Hidden Death Cross" & "True Golden Cross"🚨In this idea, I identify what I call the 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross. They are the the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA. - With 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, this is statistically significant in the macro economic trend of Bitcoin and currently has a with 100% success rate. a. "Hidden Death Cross" consistently delivers a significant market contraction b. "True Golden Cross" consistently delivers a significant market expansion This trend displays significant statistical probability, and while I propose we cannot expect future cycles to repeat past results, we can assume there is a high likely hood of the trend repeating in some form and used past results as guidelines for future performance. Weekly "Hidden Death Cross" Data 5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC); 1. 26-Sep-2011: -60% 2. 07-Jul-2014: -73% 3. 28-May-2018: -62% 4. 24-Feb-2020: -61% 5. 30-Aug-2021: ....... 6. ....................... Success Rate: 100% Failure Rate: 0% Average Contraction: -64% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min -57% / Max -71% BTC Weekly "True Golden Cross" Data 4 True Golden Cross (TGC); 1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890% 2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192% 3. 29-Apr-2019: +179% 4. 03-Aug-2020: +531% 5. ...................... Success Rate: 100% Failure Rate: 0% Average Expansion: +6'198% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min - / Max 15'000% Comparison wit the famous Daily Death Cross & Golden Cross Trend BTC Daily "Death Cross" Data BTC Daily: 7 Death Cross (DC); 1. 10-Apr-2014: +56% 2. 07-Sep-2014: -69% 3. 15-Sep-2015: +23% 4. 04-Apr-2018: -60% 5. 22-Oct-2019: -29%% 6. 26-Mar-2020: +50% 7. 23-Jun-2021: -22% 8. ....................... Success Rate: 57% Failure Rate: 43% Average Contraction: -50% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min -20% / Max -70% BTC Daily "Golden Cross" Data BTC Daily: 5 Golden Cross (DC); 1. 08-Apr-2012: +24'169% 2. 13-July-2014: -23% 3. 21-July-2015: -30% 4. 02-Nov-2015: +6722% 5. 25-Apr-2019: +163% 6. 17-Feb-2020: -62% 7. 23-May-2020: +643% 8. 15-Sep-2021: ....... 9. ........................ Success Rate: 57% Failure Rate: 43% Average Expansion: +7'924% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min - / Max 21'000% Additional Hidden Trend Daily Death Cross & Golden Cross Triplets. In addition to the standard crosses, we can identify a pattern of 3 crosses together; 1. Daily Death Cross, Golden Cross, Death Cross: This results in a bear market with a 100% success rate 2. Golden Cross, Death Cross, Golden Cross: This results in a bull market with 100% success rate I will be posting on these trends more, since they are statistically significant and I believe will continue to display similar results, regardless of the FOMO or FUD that may be happening at the time. What are your thoughts? yemala
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Yemala
21
🚨💡BTC: 'Hidden' Death Cross 100% Probability of Correction💡🚨Remove the Noise!! This is pure mathematics, statistics and probability. The 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross are the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA, which with 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, consistently (100% of cross cycles) result in a significant market contraction or expansion. Note: I am bullish on BTC, but these macro economic cycles must complete and ignoring statistical probability because of over bullish dreams, sentiment or "conviction" is likely the no. 1 fallacy of most traders in all markets. In the following historical analysis, I identify each cross, For contractions, I use the price at the date of the Hidden Death Cross, to the lowest price to determine the price drop percentage. 5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC); 1. 26-Sep-2011: -60% 2. 07-Jul-2014: -73% 3. 28-May-2018: -62% 4. 24-Feb-2020: -61% 5. 30-Aug-2021: -.... - 100% Probability of Market Contraction - Average contraction: 64% Standard Deviation (Confidence); - SD 1 (90%): Max 68% / Min 60% Correction - SD 2 (95%) Max 69% / Min 59% Correction - SD 3 (99%): Max 71% / Min 57% Correction Market expansions are identified from the price at the date of the True Golden Cross, to the highest price to determine the price increase percentage. 4 True Golden Cross (TGC); 1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890% 2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192% 3. 29-Apr-2019: +179% 4. 03-Aug-2020: +531% 5. ...... - 100% Probability of Market Expansion Expansion values too variable for significant deviation estimation Conclusion: I am a TA traditionalist, I believe that the price reflects all known / unknown information and that price action reflects human behaviour in reaction to the changing nature of the information to establish the best possible price at that moment in time. Based upon the mathematical analysis of the price action, for example tracking moving averages, we can identify the trends in human behaviour and apply statistical probability to these trends. As can be observed above, the statistical probability of this trend is considerably strong, with a 99% confidence of a drop in the range of 57% to 71% after the Hidden Death Cross that happened the 30th of August 2021. What do you think? yemala
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Yemala
24
🔥 Bitcoin Golden Cross Soon: What Happened Before?It's likely that Bitcoin will soon see a Golden Cross occur. This happens when the 50-day simple moving average (blue) crosses the 200-day simple moving average (yellow) from below. The only way in which this cross will not occur will be if we see a substantial 10%-20% drop again. The Golden Cross pattern usually signals the start of a new huge bullish move for Bitcoin. Let's take a look at what happened before. As you can see, the Golden Cross occurred 6 times in the history of Bitcoin. 4/6 times we've seen a substantial move from Bitcoin after the occurrence. Be aware that it has also often happened that Bitcoin went down in the short-term after the Golden Cross. What's also interesting to see is that the moves after the Golden Cross seem to become less intense. Be aware that we only need a +225% increase to have a $100k per BTC valuation. Do you think we will get a big bullish move after the Golden Cross? Share your thoughts🔥.
Long
by FieryTrading
30
$BTC: Up or Down?Bitcoin for the last few days has been bouncing between the Fib Retracements of 0.236(resistance) and 0.382(support) following a significant "correction". While $BTC is currently below the 200 day SMA, quickly approaching is the 50 day SMA. If $BTC keeps moving the way it is we will see a Golden Cross. Looking at the RSI we see that $BTC isn't overbought(above 70) nor oversold(below 30), it is sitting around 45 for today. My hypothesis based on this analysis is that we will see strong upward movement and buying pressure for $BTC during the week or possibly the next but until then we could see more selling pressure to get the RSI further into oversold territory. Comment whether or not you agree or disagree, will appreciate any opinions or feedback. Thanks 👍
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by UnknownChannel
REEF/USDT Update: Another opportunity to buy cheap REEF. Intro: - Reef Finance tries to become one of the most used blockchains for DeFi. It's fast, scalable and has a low transaction costs. Reef Finance is build with Polkadot Substrate and comes with on-chain governance. - The DeFi sector did have a hard time during midyear but finally recovers and with it also REEF. - It takes some time to create such ideas and drawings. You are welcome to pay me back with a comment that states you opinion and maybe leads to further improvements considering my charts and explanations. Daily chart: - As the whole market also REEF did see a 30% pullback. This lead to a downwards breakout of the tracked rising channel. However it looks like we will be back in during the start of the upcoming week and continue to climb up. - The overall volume keeps increasing slightly which is bullish. - The 0.5 Fib level did hold and wee did get a nice bounce. - Wee see that the 50MA came to help as support and did act well as such. (The following description is taken from last discussion.) - On the RSI side we got a rejection from the 80 line and are within a very shortterm downtrend most likely towards the 50 line where we expect support. - We see a golden cross indicated by the yellow camera and a deathcross indicated by the cyan camera. - The golden cross between the 20 and 50 MA can be seen as sign for a trend reversal while also most other signals tell us the same like price and volume . - Currently we sit above the new support around 0.22 Expectations: - We expect REEF to break back into the rising wedge and explode once we crack the 0.03$ resistance line. - Assuming the trend reversal keeps in play and we get some kind of mirror image we expect REEF to touch 0.5 again before the end of 2021. - Often times price consolidates above a support line which has been passed shortly before we see a bigger pump as separation from the support line. Basic rules: - Never buy the top/ ATH - Take profit as long as you can (also partial profit is profit) - Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions - If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy. If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow. We would love it if you could share your thoughts in the comments. Discussions are very welcome here. Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice. Cheers ps. Chart explanation: Main lines: - Green lines are tested support lines. - Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet. - Cyan line is for volume trendline. - White lines are Fibonacci retracement levels Helplines: - Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at. - Blue, green, white and pink lines are 200MA, 100MA, 50MA and 20MA. - Yellow lines are for visual help only. Boxes: - Either entry zone or support zone . Check the description.
RLong
by tumbler55
2
ETH/USDT Update: Great opportunity to buy cheap ETH.Last chance?Intro: - Ethereum currently has the biggest ecosystem and running smart contracts for a long time. This headstart led to a big market dominance compared to its competitors like Cardano , Solana, Cosmos, etc. - The change from POW to POS will help ETH to gain mass adoption. - It takes some time to create such ideas and drawings. You are welcome to pay me back with a comment that states your opinion and maybe leads to further improvements considering my charts and explanations. Daily chart: - We did get an upwards breakout out of the bullflag and ETH reached 4kUSD in price. However together with BTC the whole market did crash 20% and ETH is back within the bullflag getting ready for a new upwards breakout. - On the RSI side we did get an upwards breakout as well but are again below the descending orange line. We now did break below the 50 line which currently looks like a bear trap. This will be confirmed once we break upwards again. - The 50MA is coming for help to mark the current bottom. (The following description is taken from last discussion.) - ETH dropped three times to the 1750$ level and did get a bounce each time. - The blue arrow shows a W shape recovery which is considered to be a strong pattern and signals a trend reversal. - Currently trading volume stays rather low which signals that some people still don't believe in a trend reversal. - We see a golden cross indicated by the yellow camera. This time we see a strong separation between the different MA which is very bullish . Expectation: - We expect to continue the bullrun and aim for higher price targets. - During the start of the week it seems likely to break upwards out of the bullflag again. - We expect to hit the previous ATH soon within this month. Basic rules: - Never buy the top/ ATH - Take profit as long as you can (also partial profit is profit) - Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions - If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy. If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow. We would love it if you could share your thoughts in the comments. Discussions are very welcome here. Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice. Cheers ps. Chart explanation: Main lines: - Green lines are tested support lines. - Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet. - Cyan line is for volume trendline. - White lines are Fibonacci retracement levels Helplines: - Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at. - Blue, green, white and pink lines are 200MA, 100MA, 50MA and 20MA. - Yellow lines are for visual help only. Boxes: - Either entry zone or support zone . Check the description.
Long
by tumbler55
BTC interesting golden cross dilemawhat i noticed in bitcoin history, when ever 50 sma crosses 200 sma, a big crash happens, it happened February 2020, also in 2014(i circled it in yellow if you scroll more left to see it), and many other places, and it doesnt matter if it crosses from top to bottom or from bottom to top what do you thing will this be different? wasnt different in history of bitcoin also btc is weakening, volume drooping is this all a coincidence good luck trade safe and be prepared
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ergash1982
2
SCUSD: Moon, Mars or Bust?!?!?Hello Trading View Community, SCUSD looks like we might see an attempt to breakout and ride a nice rocket ship to the Mars, at least maybe Moon.... Now, before we go packing our bags, we need to make sure SCUSD flips the current resistance zone here at the 0.236 Fibonacci level and confirms it as support. Another bullish sign is coming from the Exponential Moving Averages trying to curl up and form a nice golden cross, with a nice hidden RSI divergence, till this happens though we might see some ranging. If it does breakout, I think we can see a push up towards the 0.382 fib point. However, I'm putting my first target a little further down as this is an area that starts to form a volume peak (not pictured). Thank you guys for checking out this idea on SCUSD. If you find this analysis useful, support with a simple "Like" or "Follow". Trade carefully and remember these are just ideas, not trading advise.
KRAKEN:SCUSDLong
by jnpTrends