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Goldenratio

SUI — Breakout or Breakdown? Long & Short SetupsSUI has been trapped in a trading range for the past 6 days, consolidating between key levels and building up liquidity for the next big move. When price goes quiet like this after an impulsive structure, it’s not time to trade—it’s time to observe, analyse, and prepare. So, where’s the next high-probability setup? Let’s break it down: 🔹 Elliott Wave Context From my previous SUI analysis, I identified a completed 5-wave impulse structure. After such a move, a corrective ABC pattern is typically next. SUI has been respecting technical levels with surprising accuracy throughout this cycle—especially Fibonacci levels and key horizontal zones. 📉 ABC Correction in Progress? Wave A appears to be completed, and Wave B was rejected at the yearly level in perfect confluence with the golden pocket (0.618–0.666) retracement of Wave A. This strongly suggests that Wave C is now unfolding. Using the 1:1 trend-based Fib extension, the projected Wave C target lands at: ➡️ $3.6413 Let’s dig deeper—does this level hold up under further scrutiny? 🔍 Multi-Layered Confluence at $3.56–$3.64 Here’s what aligns at this potential support zone: 1:1 Fib extension (Wave A = Wave C) → $3.6413 0.55 Fib retracement (from $3.1132 to $4.2967) → ~$3.64 Volume Profile POC from prior range → ~$3.59 0.618 Fib retracement → $3.5653 Weekly level → $3.5594 21-Day EMA → $3.5537 21-Day SMA → $3.6319 0.75 Fib Speed Fan (if hit on May 16) → aligns with zone This stack of levels gives us a tightly packed, high-conviction support area between: 📍 $3.56 – $3.646 ___________________________________ 🟢 Long Setup Idea: Entry Zone: Ladder entries between $3.56 and $3.75 Stop-Loss: $3.4546 (beneath confluence zone) Take-Profit Target: $4.588 (0.786 Fib retracement + -0.236 Fib extension) R:R: ~5:1 🚫 Invalidation: If SUI reclaims the yearly level at $4.1152 before revisiting this support, the setup is invalidated. 🔴 Short Setup Idea: If SUI pushes into the 0.786 Fib retracement at $4.588 and shows clear rejection (e.g., SFP, bearish engulfing, high-volume reversal), a short can be considered. Entry: On rejection at $4.588 Stop-Loss: ~$4.714 Targets: TP1: $4.325 (recent highs) TP2: $4.1152 (yearly level) 🧠 Final Thoughts: This is where trading becomes a game of patience. I’ve mapped both long and short setups based on structure, confluence, and price behaviour. Now it’s about waiting for price to come to your levels. ⏰ Alarms set. 📈 Let the chart do the work. More updates to come as the range resolves. Stay sharp! ___________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
COINBASE:SUIUSDLong
by SiDec
12
SOL Trade Blueprint: Waiting for the High-Conviction EntryAfter printing a SFP at the key high of $180.52 followed by a sharp -8% rejection, SOL made a second attempt to breach the major resistance zone between $180–$185 — but once again, bulls fell short. Since then, price has been in a corrective phase. So the big question is: where’s the next high-probability trade setup? Let’s zoom out and break it down. 📏 Zooming Out: Structure, FVG & Fib Confluence Back on May 8th, SOL broke through the April 25th swing high at $157 with strong momentum, leaving behind an untested Fair Value Gap (FVG) — a key displacement area that’s yet to be filled. When we draw the Fibonacci retracement from the low of that move to the current high, the 0.618 retracement lands precisely at $157.34 — right on the old breakout high. That’s a beautiful confluence. Timing-wise, if SOL pulls back to that level between May 21–22, the 0.75 Fib speed fan also kicks in — adding dynamic trendline support to the static Fib level. 📉 What About the $164 Golden Pocket? There's a golden pocket forming around $164 from a recent mini-impulse, and while it may look tempting, context matters. This pocket isn't supported by enough confluence — no major structure, volume shelf, or EMA alignment. For a quick scalp? Yes. But for a high-conviction swing? It's not ideal. Remember, in trading we're not here to chase every candle — we're here to wait for the setups that stack the most reasons to say yes. 📍 The Zone to Watch: $157 Now let’s talk about that $157 zone — and why it’s standing out as the highest-probability long setup: 0.618 Fib retracement of the major impulse Retest of the breakout swing high Untested Fair Value Gap (FVG) 233 EMA + 233 SMA on the 4H timeframe lining up as dynamic support 1.5 outer pitchfork support line crossing through 1:1 trend-based Fib extension confluence Prior area of interest This is what we call a “stacked setup.” The more layers of confluence, the more conviction we have in the trade. Add to that the potential for a liquidity sweep (SFP) just below the current low at $159.44 — and it becomes a zone worth watching closely. 🎯 Long Setup: Entry: $157–$159.44 (watch for SFP confirmation) Stop-Loss: Below $154 Target: $200 R:R: Approx. 1:12 — a setup worth being patient for 🧠 Educational Note: Why Confluence Is King High-probability trades don’t come from guessing. They come from stacking confluence: structure, Fibonacci, moving averages, time-based levels, pitchforks, VWAPs, volume profiles — the more that lines up, the less you need to hope and the more you can trust your edge. Think like a sniper, not a machine gun. The market rewards patience and precision — not noise and FOMO. 🔻 Short Setup (Alternative Play) While we’re primarily bullish, there’s a valid short opportunity at the psychological $200 mark — but only if price shows clear rejection and confirmation (e.g. SFP, bearish engulfing, high volume reversal). Entry: $200 rejection Stop-Loss: Above $205 Target: $185–$180 R:R: Approx. 1:3+ 🔥 Final Words: Trade With Purpose This is what trading is about — not chasing green candles, but waiting for structure, clarity, and alignment. Whether you’re trading long or short, focus on high-conviction setups backed by logic and levels, not emotion. Don’t trade for action. Trade for precision. The market will always reward the patient ones who are willing to wait for that clean entry, stacked with reasons to act. Trust the process, stay disciplined, and let the charts do the talking. 💪📈 ___________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
Long
by SiDec
43