Goldforecast
Gold Weekly Analysis: It's all about FOMC and Rate Decision...Having been in gold sell mode all the time since the beginning of last week, but the market closed up nearly 500 pips after the release of the positive CPI report of the American session last Friday.
Both the Daily and Weekly candles have closed as bullish candles. Although the market has closed bullishly, Gold has not been able to close above its strong resistance zone. And there is no big report release for Gold until next Thursday.
So, there will be a big move in the gold market on FOMC and Rate Decision. And until Thursday, Gold has technically a chance to rise a little further to the $1880/1900 price zone. .
Resistance from current rate is $18800/1900.As market doesn’t have too many market mover days in early of the next week and gold closed in full faced bullish candle.
So, beginning of the next week, gold may go up and test $1880/1900 it drops. And I am expecting gold may drop from Trendline Resistance Zone of 1880/1900 during FOMC and Rate Decision.
Well, now if the Fed makes a dovish statement or does not raise the 50 bp rate then maybe it will close above $1900 and again the market will create a chance to rise till $1950 and $2000.
Reason for gold's drop:
1. Next week FED will hike rates more than 50 BPs.
2. Recently the US job market report and CPI rose more than expected.
3. Gold is near to its trendline resistance zone. So, technically it is expected to drop from the present zone of $1870/1900.
Caution: Of course we are not going to sell instantly. Because D1 and Weekly candle closed in full faced bullish pinbar candle.
So, it has created more chances to test the nearly $1880/1900 price zone again. I think till next Thursday (FOMC and Rate decision) gold will go up.
On Thursday we have the FOMC and rate decision. So, I am expecting gold will drop at the FOMC and Rate decision day not before.. Let's see what happens.
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GOLD Futures Positional Long Idea#GOLD Futures Postional Long Idea
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
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XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- US10Y is currently slightly up to 3.0% LEVEL. Like we said before, it's been a bit of a CORRECTION in the last few days. We can see that the POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD ECONOMIC DATA is also very POSITIVE for DXY.
- The power of USD is still very strong in GOLD. US10Y will behave today on the behavior of CPI DATA in the NEWYORK SESSION. DXY has been DOWN very fast for the last few days. But now it is becoming UP. We look forward to hearing from DXY. US10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be with this RATE HIKE CYCLE and this MARKET CONDITION. Currently DXY is getting a bit UP with MARKET RISK OFF. Also when we look at DXY it has moved up to DXY 103.100 LEVEL.
- The GOLD PRICE is currently moving slightly below the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be SHORT TEEM UP in the future. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS but may be more DOWN under the influence of DOLLAR in the future. So it can be a bit UP before SELL. In a DOWN SIDE CHANNEL a GOLD can be seen moving.
- Currently the OVERALL MARKET is showing RISK OFF. STOCKS is currently RED showing a RISK OFF SENTIMENT. And the VOLATILITY is getting a bit UP. Also COMMODITIES show a DOWN SIDE BIAS today. Currently the MARKET has a RISK OFF SENTIMENT. Therefore, in the future, all NZD CAD AUD currencies may be slightly lower compared to JPY CHF and USD currencies.
- GOLD PRICE can be UP again before DOWN until 1910 LEVEL. So GOLD is more likely to go back to the 1910 LEVEL. Then you can BREAK TREND LINE and definitely DOWN up to GOLD price 1786 LEVEL. If the TREND LINE is BREAK, you can go up to GOLD 1765 LEVEL DXY or US10Y if there is a UP TREND again.
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
GOLD Trading IdeaRight now Gold seems to stay in Sideway. it is in a BlackZone where both buy and sell might be risky. Therefore, the best thing is to wait for the right place to enter to the market.
Facts:
If we look for the time frame H1, we can see the nearest and best area is 1859 - 1861 which is working as resistance level for GOLD. Since 23rd May 2022, historically gold got rejected many times from this level. Considering cloud breaking strategy, we can see that the yellow A crossed the Red zone several times during this period of time.
Fundamental Facts:
NFP resulted too strong last week (3rd June,2022) but we saw gold could not break 1830 which is strongest support for Gold. If Gold tested 1830, we could think of bounce back or going towards 1800.
We can trade gold like from 1859, we can go for sell with a STOPLOSS of 1871 and TAKEPROFIT of 1834.
DeGRAM | XAUUSD bearish opportunityPrice action created a false break of the strong resistance level at $1855.
GOLD pulled back to the consolidation zone.
We anticipate further price movement down.
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DeGRAM | XAUUSD shortAs we predicted yesterday, gold went to lower levels by making lower lows.
Right now, gold is retracing back to the previous structure level.
On the higher timeframe, gold is forming an expanding triangle.
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Gold shortWe broke structure on 1h taking the Short I see more downside coming. Check graph for SL and TP
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- US10Y is currently slightly up to 2.91% LEVEL. Like we said before, it was a little CORRECTION just like we thought. We can see that the POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD ECONOMIC DATA is also very POSITIVE for DXY.
- The power of USD is still very strong in GOLD. Now DXY has been DOWN very fast for the last few days. We look forward to hearing from DXY. US10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be with this RATE HIKE CYCLE and this MARKET CONDITION. DXY is getting a bit down but now it's getting a bit UP up with the MARKET RISK OFF. Also when we look at DXY it has moved up to DXY 102.238 LEVEL.
- GOLD PRICE is currently slightly higher than DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be SHORT TEEM UP in the future. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS but may be more DOWN under the influence of DOLLAR in the future. So it can be a bit UP before SELL. In a DOWN SIDE CHANNEL a GOLD is seen moving.
- Currently the OVERALL MARKET is showing RISK OFF. STOCKS is currently RED showing a RISK OFF SENTIMENT. And the VOLATILITY is getting a bit UP. Also COMMODITIES show a MIXED BIAS today. Currently the MARKET has a RISK OFF SENTIMENT. Therefore, in the future, all NZD CAD AUD currencies may be slightly lower compared to JPY CHF and USD currencies.
- The GOLD PRICE can be UP again before DOWN until 1918 LEVEL. So GOLD is more likely to go back to the 1918 LEVEL. Then you can definitely DOWN GOLD price up to 1783 LEVEL. If the TREND LINE is BREAK, you can go up to GOLD 1765 LEVEL DXY or US10Y if there is a UP TREND again.
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
GOLD top-down analysis, UPDATEDHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
DeGRAM | XAUUSD in consolidationGold is still moving sideways. There are no clear trend indications.
Recently, prices broke out of the small ascending channel.
We are selling at the retest of the resistance level and the border of the channel.
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XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- US10Y is currently slightly up to 2.84% LEVEL. Like we said before, it was a little CORRECTION just like we thought. So far, we have seen the POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD being similarly very POSITIVE for DXY.
The POWER of USD is still very strong in GOLD. Now DXY has been DOWN very fast for the last few days. We look forward to hearing from DXY. US10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be with this RATE HIKE CYCLE and this MARKET CONDITION. DXY is getting a bit down but now it's getting a bit UP up with the MARKET RISK OFF. Also, when we look at DXY, it has moved to DXY 101.68 LEVEL.
- GOLD PRICE is currently moving above DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be SHORT TEEM UP in the future. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS but may be more DOWN under the influence of DOLLAR in the future. So currently UP can be before SELL.
- Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. STOCKS is currently showing a NEUTRAL BIAS. And the VOLATILITY is getting a bit UP. Also COMMODITIES still shows a UP SIDE BIAS. Currently there is only one RISK OFF TONE in the market. Therefore, all currencies such as NZD CAD AUD can definitely be DOWN in the future. Also JPY CHF can be UP.
- GOLD PRICE can be UP again before DOWN until 1918 LEVEL. So GOLD is more likely to go back to the 1918 LEVEL. Then you can definitely DOWN GOLD price up to 1783 LEVEL. If the TREND LINE is BREAK, you can go up to GOLD 1765 LEVEL DXY or US10Y if there is a UP TREND again.
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
Gold Analysis: As long as gold is above $1830, it may test $1900
Hello gold traders, welcome back in new week trading season.
Technically gold is still in uptrend and fundamental also supporting that gold may hit nearly $1910 price zone again. Last week the us GDP missed. This week everything is depending on the US labor market report, specially in NFP.
Until NFP report release technically gold may test $1900/1910 price zone again. If NFP dropped hard, Gold may break above the $1910 and we will see further upside move.
From the present rates, $1830 is identifying as a strong support zone. So, as long as gold is able to hold above the $1930, it will still in uptrend and this is the most possible scenario for this week.
One more thing, from the present rates immediate resistance is $1970 price zone. So, we may see some downward correction from $1870 to nearly its trendline support zone of $1850/40.
Unless NFP reports print too positive, I think gold is not going to drop below $1830.
On the other hand, if gold breaks below the $1830 (Very strong support), technically it will create chances to test $1810 price zone. than we will see some upward correction and final target to the downside is $1787. I think it will be hard scenario unless Russia-Ukraine comes in negotiation.