Get started

Goldforecast

Gold Analysis Ahead of The FOMC. How to trade gold at FOMC? The much awaited FOMC will be released in a few hours. Naturally, there happens a big movement in dollar related pairs during FOMC. There are two parts to the FOMC statement 1. Hawkish 2. Dovish In a nutshell, hawkish means positive economic activity or optimistic positive economic projections. Hawkish statement includes all positive economic outcomes, including positive economic growth, positive trade balance, positive upcoming economic projections, more job creation, bank rates and salary increases. And Dovish is the opposite of all hawks. Now the thing is, not everything in a country is as positive, but not everything is negative. That's why we look at two or three important matters in each FOMC. If these two / three issues are positive then we do not accept the statement is hawkish, and if it is negative then we consider that the statement is dovish. The key issues in today's FOMC statement are inflation, economic growth and bank rates. And the biggest issue is the bank rate. If all three of these issues are positive then we will take the statement hawkish and we will buy dollars against other currencies. In that case we must sell gold. Now we will check the previous data a little bit about upcoming FOMC statement, from the previous data it is understood that the economic growth i.e. the previous GDP report dropped and this week the GDP report has forecast negative. That means economic growth is negative. But the job market report was positive in that case, although the economic growth is negative, the United States has some advantages compared to other countries. In that case economic growth is not entirely hawkish, but better than others. Inflation, on the other hand, is in a super high position. The last CPI report was positive. It is good to increase inflation to a certain level, but it is dangerous to increase it too much. American inflation is now in a somewhat dangerous state. We will not call it positive at all. However, it could also be positive if Powell mentions in his statement that inflation has risen, in the future we will raise rates further to control inflation. Basically, central bank rise bank rates to control inflation. So we have to see how Powell treats this higher inflation. If there are hints of more rate hikes up front, then it makes sense. This will be considered as higher inflation positive and the statement is hawkish. Now let's come to the most important issue, rate hints. Basically, almost everything depends on this issue today. If Powell says today that they want to increase the rate by 50 bp even after July, then the statement will be hawkish. But if there are no hints about the aftermath of July, the dollar may not benefit much. Because it has already said that it will increase the rate by 50 bp in July-July, and the dollar has already become quite strong in the market with the price in it. So, we have to keep this in mind at the time of the statement, what Powell says about the upcoming bank rates. Now if the FED says that we no longer need to raise rates, or hints to raise rates below 25 BP, then the dollar will be weak against gold, if nothing else. Although such a possibility is low, but not absolutely impossible. The dollar has strengthened against almost all currencies around the world. If the dollar is so strong in the long run, it will be bad for America in the long run as a reserve currency. American trade will decline, exports will decline. From my own experience, I had seen many times if the dollar is strong in the long run, the FED willfully give a dovish statement just to weaken the dollar. So as not to have a negative impact on the economy in the long run. And since the dollar has been strong for several months now, and there is no press conference in today's statement, the Fed may be willing to issue a dovish statement. I will not make any decision beforehand of the FOMC but after FOMC, we will open trades based on the statement. Technical view Immediate resistance from the current rate is $1870 And there is support at $ 1850/1845. Until FOMC, there is an opportunity that gold may test $1850/1845. If the statement is dovish then Gold is more likely to test $1870 area by bouncing from $1850/45. If the statement is too dovish, it can break $1870 and may test $1880 areas. However, in the current context, it is very difficult for Gold to go above 1880 area. On the other hand, if the FOMC statement is hawkish and the gold is stable below the $1845 area, then our 1st target for sale is $1830 and the final target is $1812.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2
Gold may test 1830/1835 if it breaks below the $1850 SupportIf Gold stable again below $1850, then Gold could test $1835/1830 again. As can be seen from the 1 hour chart, Gold is still in a somewhat bullish mode. However, if the hourly candle breaks below $1850, the picture may change. Until the FOMC tomorrow, it looks like Gold will make a drop till 1830/1835. However, testing below $1830/1835 will be very rare till FOMC. On the other hand, there is a chance of a hawkish statement tomorrow. As such, there is a better chance to test Gold 1630/1835 by winning the prize earlier today or $1810 again tomorrow and if the statement is too hawkish. Since $1835/1830 is quite a strong trend line support, it is expected that the market may rise again from $1835/1830 as well as. And the stop loss should not be more than $1825. Because if 1825 breaks out, only FOMC is too hawkish and Powell is too aggressive. Although the chances are high. But there is a saying, buy the rumor sell the fact. And in recent times it's been too much. At FOMC, we must trade based on our statements. This analysis and set up is valid only up to FOMC. And even if the market rises from the current rate, there is nothing to be surprised about. Because in the short time frame the market is still above the trend line support level. Although it is less likely to happen.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
GoldViewFX - DAILY CHART MARKET UPDATEHey Everyone, We are sharing our DAILY chart setup here with a longer range/term view, which is playing out perfectly. Price found support at 1804, which we already highlighted in advance, as a retracement support zone. This held well, followed with a push up heading towards the next significant GOLDTURN 1858. This gap is now open on the DAILY chart, as the next target. EMA5 break and lock above or below these DAILY levels will give us an indication of the longer range direction. BULLISH TARGET 1858, 1899 BEARISH TARGET 1804 SWING RANGE 1741 As always we will keep you all updated with any changes to this setup. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it! GoldViewFX XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
17
As long as gold is above $1830/1825, We shouldn't sell gold.As long as gold is above $1830/1825, We don't need to sell gold. We won't even enter in buy mode as well unless it breaks above the $1850. Breaking above the $1850 will open the door for $1860, 1865, 1872, 1882 and finally 1892. At $1892, we have Fibo 50% retracement zone. So, there may we see some correction to the downside. Read my gold's weekly analysis for better understanding .. Before FOMC i don't think gold will break above $1840 or drop below $1825. We may see a range-bound till FOMC. When it is hard to identify the fundamental trend, its better to follow the price zone in H1 or H4 chart. That produce pips at least without any panic.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert