Gold Nears Key Fibonacci as Fed Rate Cut Odds DipGold is about to test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level while Stochastic Signals overbought, as chanced of a 0.25% rate cut at Fed fallen below 59%.
The gold's downtrend is valid as long as the prices are below the %50. Fibonacci.
Article: fxnews.me
Goldfundamentals
XAUUSD I Bullish breakout, pullback, and potential continuation Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** XAUUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
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GOLD BUYING MORE !!!HELLO TRADERS ,
As i can see this chart of GOLD it had already break the strong resistance levels and closed under broken level as it had done on last Friday middle east War Tensions are spreading to other nations too so fundamentally its show some thing big coming up in gold buy trade if Israeli do not ceasefire in GAZA STRIP. so investors are always looking for safe haven is Gold.. i am expecting these charts are going to make a new higher high .....
this is just an idea on the base of fundamental conditions kindly share Ur ideas too it will help alote to all of our trader community & stay tune for new updates on chat
GOLD broke down from daily trend lineWe have 2 important breakdowns on daily chart.
#1 Bearish flag breakdown, Technical target of that is $1774.74
#2 Ascending trend line break down, Technical target of that is $1795.92
Price is trying to breakdown from golden ratio level 0.618 which IF breaks down then most likely are going sub $1800 levels.
GOLD seems very bearish for mid-term because on daily structure is changing from higher highs/higher lows to lower highs and lower lows which suggests that gold trend is shifting from bullish to bearish.
Please like and comment if you agree.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION#XAUUSD
According to the analysis we gave to XAUUSS earlier, GOLD went UP very fast in the previous weeks, BREAKING the TREND LINE. Due to this US10Y went down. These days the FED RATE HIKE SLOWDOWN SENTIMENT and, in the short term RETAIL SALES, NFP and PMI DATA being POSITIVE, managed to make the USD STRONG.
But since all the ECONOMIC INDICATORS were positive the other day, GOLD was slightly SELL yesterday. It is definitely a very important indicator for the FED. Currently, MARKET RISK is being ON.
We have some very important NEWS coming to USD this week. Be sure to keep an eye on it.
Anyway, we expect that GOLD will go up to 1875 LEVEL. Before that, GOLD may go down to the 1744 level with the FOMC UPDATE. Be careful..
Gold is still an inflationary hedge asset, why?My answer is definitely a Yes! But why many say no. It is because they are looking at Gold from a very microscopic view; into its day-to-day to week-to-week movement. But if we analyse Gold from a macro perspective, we will able to appreciate Gold better, that it is still an inflationary hedge asset.
And from today’s case study, we will also learn why it is time to get into Gold again at around this price.
Content:
• Gold is still an inflationary hedge asset, why?
• When to enter into the Gold market again?
For investor, you can invest into the physical Gold, Gold ETFs, funds and even those mining stocks that pay dividend.
For traders, I would like to trade into Futures.
COMEX E-Mini Gold Qo1!
0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50
1.00 = $50
1650 to 1750
= 100 x $50
= US$5,000
COMEX Micro Gold MGC1!
COMEX Regular Gold GC1!
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION#XAUUSD - #GOLD
- As we can see, GOLD is still going down since the last few days. The reason was that the US10Y was constantly strengthened by MARKET UPDATES. But as soon as there is an opportunity in the future, GOLD can be BUY as per the MARKET STRUCTURE. But yet there is no reason or incident to make GOLD MARKETS FUNDAMENTALLY UP yet.
- By now, GOLD must go to 1671 LEVEL. After that, the PRICE must go up at 1910, definitely a STRUCTURE BREAK
If one comes. Definitely follow the STRUCTURE we have given. CPI DATA further DOWN GOLD PRICE. Wait until the TREND LINE on the PRICE CHART BREAKS.
- Currently, US 10Y is slightly UP. Also, DXY is also slightly UP. For this reason, GOLD is going down now.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION#GOLD -
- As we can see, GOLD is still going down since the last few days. The reason was that the US10Y was constantly strengthened by MARKET UPDATES. But as soon as there is an opportunity in the future, GOLD can be BUY as per the MARKET STRUCTURE. But yet there is no reason or incident to make GOLD MARKETS FUNDAMENTALLY UP yet.
- By now, GOLD must go to 1671 LEVEL. After that, the PRICE must go up at 1910, definitely a STRUCTURE BREAK
If one comes. Definitely follow the STRUCTURE we have given. Before that, the GOLD PRICE can be UP on the TRENDLINE by today's CPI DATA until the 1789 LEVEL. Pay attention to that too.
- Currently, US 10Y is slightly UP. Also, DXY is also slightly UP. For this reason, GOLD is going down now. Anyway, everyone is waiting for US CPI DATA to come out today.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION - As we can see, the GOLD is still down yesterday. But as soon as we get a chance in the future, it could be GOLD BUY. The reason for this is that we can introduce the new rules used by BIDEN for RUSSIAN GOLD.
- By now GOLD must go to 1808 LEVEL. Then by 1885 the PRICE must be UP STRUCTURE BREAK
If one comes. Definitely FOLLOW the STRUCTURE we provided.
- Currently US 10Y is slightly UP. Also the DXY is getting a bit UP. For this reason, GOLD is being downgraded.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- US10Y is currently up to 3.41% LEVEL .. Now us10y is up fast with US RATE HIKE. We can see that the POSITIVE SENTIMENT that came for USD ECONOMIC DATA is also very POSITIVE for DXY.
- The power of USD is still very strong in GOLD. DXY DOWN very fast last week. But now it is becoming UP. We look forward to hearing from DXY. US10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be with this RATE HIKE CYCLE and this MARKET CONDITION. Currently DXY is getting slightly UP with MARKET RISK OFF. Also, when we look at DXY, it has moved to DXY 105.28 LEVEL.
- The GOLD PRICE is currently moving slightly below the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the SHORT TERM will be slightly UP ahead of the GOLD PRICE. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS but may be more DOWN under the influence of DOLLAR in the future. So it's a bit of a GOLD STRUCTURE BREAK and is currently selling.
- Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. STOCKS is currently displaying a DOWNSIDE BIAS. And the VOLATILITY is getting a bit UP. Also COMMODITIES still shows a DOWN SIDE BIAS. Currently there is only one RISK OFF TONE in the market. Therefore, all currencies such as NZD CAD AUD may definitely be somewhat DOWN in the future. Also JPY CHF can be UP.
- GOLD PRICE can be UP again before DOWN until 1866 LEVEL. After that you can definitely DOWN up to GOLD price up to 1765 LEVEL.
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- US10Y is currently slightly up to 2.91% LEVEL. Like we said before, it was a little CORRECTION just like we thought. We can see that the POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD ECONOMIC DATA is also very POSITIVE for DXY.
- The power of USD is still very strong in GOLD. Now DXY has been DOWN very fast for the last few days. We look forward to hearing from DXY. US10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be with this RATE HIKE CYCLE and this MARKET CONDITION. DXY is getting a bit down but now it's getting a bit UP up with the MARKET RISK OFF. Also when we look at DXY it has moved up to DXY 102.238 LEVEL.
- GOLD PRICE is currently slightly higher than DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be SHORT TEEM UP in the future. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS but may be more DOWN under the influence of DOLLAR in the future. So it can be a bit UP before SELL. In a DOWN SIDE CHANNEL a GOLD is seen moving.
- Currently the OVERALL MARKET is showing RISK OFF. STOCKS is currently RED showing a RISK OFF SENTIMENT. And the VOLATILITY is getting a bit UP. Also COMMODITIES show a MIXED BIAS today. Currently the MARKET has a RISK OFF SENTIMENT. Therefore, in the future, all NZD CAD AUD currencies may be slightly lower compared to JPY CHF and USD currencies.
- The GOLD PRICE can be UP again before DOWN until 1918 LEVEL. So GOLD is more likely to go back to the 1918 LEVEL. Then you can definitely DOWN GOLD price up to 1783 LEVEL. If the TREND LINE is BREAK, you can go up to GOLD 1765 LEVEL DXY or US10Y if there is a UP TREND again.
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION⛔️ US10Y is currently slightly down to 2.91% LEVEL. It was a little CORRECTION just like we thought. The POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD has also been very positive for DXY in the past. The POWER of USD is still very strong in GOLD. Now DXY UP has been very fast for the last few days. We look forward to hearing from DXY. US10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be with this RATE HIKE CYCLE and this MARKET CONDITION. DXY is currently down a bit with the MARKET RISK ON. Also when we look at the DXY it has moved up to the DXY 104.575 LEVEL.
⛔️ GOLD PRICE is currently moving below DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be SHORT TEEM UP in the future. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS but another WAVE can DOWN under the influence of DOLLAR. So now GOLD can be SELL before UP.
⛔️ The OVERALL MARKET is currently RISK ON on Friday. STOCKS is currently displaying a GREEN SIDE BIAS. Also the VOLATILITY is getting a bit DOWN. Also COMMODITIES show a UP SIDE BIAS. Currently there is only one RISK ON TONE in the market. Therefore, in the future, all currencies such as NZD CAD AUD can definitely be UP. Also JPY CHF can be DOWN.
⛔️ GOLD PRICE can be DOWN again before UP. So GOLD can go back to 1765 LEVEL. After that you can definitely go up to GOLD price 1966 LEVEL. If the RESISTANCE LINE is BREAK, GOLD can travel up to 1966 with a DXY or US10Y CORRECTION.
⛔️ However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- As mentioned earlier, a very important event took place at the FOMC MEETING yesterday. The US Federal Reserve has increased their rates by 50bps. Before that there was some talk among the traders about it. So after raising their rates, the US dollar weakened. This is because the USD has been BUY in the past due to the sentiment of traders on the rates they are raising. Other economic indicator data released yesterday also remained weak. UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS DATA is due to be released for the US dollar today.
- US10Y is currently down to 2.97% LEVEL. It was a CORRECTION just like we thought. The POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD has also been very positive for DXY in the past. Now DXY seems to be a bit CORRECTION after FOMC. We look forward to hearing from you. US10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be with this RATE HIKE CYCLE and this MARKET CONDITION. Also when we look at DXY it has moved up to DXY 102.885 LEVEL.
- GOLD PRICE is currently moving above DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be SHORT TEEM UP in the future. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS. But currently GOLD can be SELL before UP.
- Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK ON. STOCKS is currently displaying a GREEN SIDE BIAS. But American STOCKS are going down a bit. And VOLATILITY is DOWN. Also COMMODITIES still shows a UP SIDE BIAS. Currently there is only one RISK ON BIAS on the market. Therefore, in the future, all currencies such as NZD CAD AUD can definitely be UP. Also JPY CHF can be DOWN.
- GOLD PRICE can be DOWN again before UP. So GOLD can go back to 1876 LEVEL. After that you can definitely go up to GOLD price 1966 LEVEL.
If the RESISTANCE LINE is BREAK, GOLD can travel up to 1966 with a DXY or US10Y CORRECTION.
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- Today is a very important day for XAUUSD. This is due to the release of USD PCE DATA. So it's a very HIGH IMPACT NEWS. We need to be vigilant about that. So far, the US DATA received yesterday is slightly MIXED DATA received. Also, GDP was very bad at DATA. So GOLD got a good DEMAND.
- US10Y is currently at 2.84% LEVEL. The POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD has also been very positive for DXY in the past. Now DXY seems to be a bit CORRECTION. US10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be with this RATE HIKE CYCLE and this MARKET CONDITION. Also, when we look at DXY, we have moved to DXY 103.07 LEVEL.
- GOLD PRICE is below DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be SHORT TEEM UP in the future. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS.
- Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK ON. Also the STOKES are turning a bit GREEN. COMMODITIES RISK ON TONE is what gives us. So I'm trying to be a bit HIGH BEATA CURRENCIES BUY right now. Anyway VIX is getting a bit DOWN right now. Also BONDS PRICES show a slightly NEUTRAL BIAS. But BONDS SPREADS are getting GREEN. MARKET currently has a MARKET ENVIRONMENT with a NEUTRAL BIAS close to RISK ON.
- GOLD PRICE can be UP again before UP. So GOLD can definitely go back to 1891 LEVEL. After that you can definitely go up to GOLD price 1966 LEVEL.
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- There are some very sharp economic data to be released this week for the US dollar. Today, especially GDP DATA is due to be released. So be careful when you trade NEWYORK. ADVANCED GDP INDEX, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS DATA will also be released today.
- US10Y is currently at 2.76% LEVEL .. Now US10Y is DOWN. Currently, the POSITIVE SENTIMENT for USD is similarly the most POSITIVE for DXY. US10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be with this RATE HIKE CYCLE and this MARKET CONDITION. Also, when we look at the DXY, the DXY 102.51 LEVEL is further up.
- GOLD PRICE is below DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be SHORT TEEM UP in the future. GOLD SHORT TERM has a UP SIDE BIAS.
- Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is moving towards the RISK ON side. Also the EQUITIES have become a bit GREEN. VIX is getting a bit DOWN. Also COMMODITIES is showing a UP SIDE BIAS right now. MARKETS currently have a NEUTRAL SENTIMENT, but the RISK ON SENTIMENT is too heavy. HIGH BEATA CURRENCIES are also UP going very well.
- GOLD PRICE can be UP again before DOWN. So GOLD can definitely go back to the 1909 LEVEL. Then you can definitely DOWN GOLD price up to 1875l 6 LEVEL.
If the TREND LINE is BREAK, GOLD can travel up to 1966 with a DXY or US10Y CORRECTION.
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- Today there are special indicators that affect GOLD. US PPI and CORE PPI DATA data to be released. GOLD will definitely be VOLATILE there. We must pay attention to the US10Y CHART.
- US10Y currently stands at 2.76% LEVEL. Yesterday CPI DATA also made DXY UP at that moment. USD10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be up if this MARKET CONDITION is SUPPORT to USD. Also, when we look at the DXY, the DXY is up to 100.43 LEVEL. So GOLD has not been able to BUY much in recent days.
- GOLD PRICE is available above DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be SHORT TEEM UP in the future. SHORT TERM is for UP SIDE.
- Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is being POSITIVE. Until yesterday the MARKET RISK was OFF. STOCKS DOWN DOWN until yesterday. Also, the EQUITIES are turning somewhat GREEN but the VOLATILITY is going down. Also COMMODITIES still shows a UP SIDE BIAS. There is a NEUTRAL BIAS currently on the market. It's a bit more than the DOWN SIDE BIAS. We can not say for sure whether the MARKET SENTIMENT is UP or DOWN. But according to the data we have received so far we can say that MARKETS RISK is coming ON.
- GOLD PRICE can be UP again before DOWN. So GOLD can definitely go back to 2000 LEVEL. Then you can definitely DOWN GOLD price up to 1817 LEVEL.
- However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
GOLD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS LONG TERMWhy GOLD is bearish
A number of factors are driving investors out of riskier assets and into the traditional safe-havens – Treasury notes, Japanese Yen and U.S. Dollar. Gold is benefiting from the drop in yields but also from the plunge in the global equity markets.
Stock traders essentially need some place to park their profits so gold is in some ways benefitting from this. Liquidity is a major factor and gold isn’t as liquid as the three other safe-havens. Gold appears to be taking on more of a hedging role today. Traders may be buying gold as a hedge against a further decline in stocks.
The primary cause of the market turmoil on Monday is a steep drop in stocks in Hong Kong with shares of embattled Chinese developer China Evergrande Group to blame for the move. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 3.3% to close at 23,099.14. Shares of China Evergrande Group in the city plummeted 10.24%, after failing as much as 17% earlier.
Long Forcast
In December GOLD futures were finding support inside a key of technical area at $1757.40 to $1738.60.
Due to sell-off in the stock market and weaker Treasury yields they could offer some relief so that then can beat-up asset which was fallen nearly $100 since September 3. However, they expected that the selling could be resume once the smoke would clear.
In order to have a major rally in gold, the central banks would have to pumped more liquidity into the financial markets, but that is not likely unless there should be 5-10% correction in the stock market. Although such a move is on the central bankers hand and most were worried about withdrawing stimulus from their economies than putting liquidity back in.
A number of factors are driving investors out of riskier assets and into the traditional safe-havens – Treasury notes, Japanese Yen and U.S. Dollar. Gold is benefiting from the drop in yields but also from the plunge in the global equity markets.
Stock traders essentially need some place to park their profits so gold is in some ways benefitting from this. Liquidity is a major factor and gold isn’t as liquid as the three other safe-havens. Gold appears to be taking on more of a hedging role today. Traders may be buying gold as a hedge against a further decline in stocks.
The primary cause of the market turmoil on Monday is a steep drop in stocks in Hong Kong with shares of embattled Chinese developer China Evergrande Group to blame for the move. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 3.3% to close at 23,099.14. Shares of China Evergrande Group in the city plummeted 10.24%, after failing as much as 17% earlier.
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