GOLD Outlook for the week of Sun. Nov. 17, 2024I'm firm on my bias that we have capped the high of the year as it pertains to Gold and Silver. With the past week having accomplished the -2SD Draw on price, things are moving according to plan. My overall objective remains the same, as I believe price is headed to 50% yearly retracement and or -4SD selloff. Sells still look very good up until that point. Let me know your thoughts as well. Bless.
Goldfutures
Gold Futures exactly at mid channel support. Gold futures are exactly at Mid-Channel Support for Gold Enthusiasts. Mother line support is already broken after head and shoulders formation in Gold. Gold Futures CMP is 75200. If Mid-Channel support 74436 (Major Support) is broken we can see gold fall to 73175 or even 71192 levels where Gold will come down to meet the Father line support of 200 days EMA. Resistances for gold on the upper side seem to be at 75836 (Major Mother line resistance of 50 days EMA). 76498, 77683 and 79K. Gold is looking little weak on charts and if Mid-Channel support is broken 74436 it will become vulnerable.
To Know more about Parallel Channel and Mother, Father and Small Child theory mentioned in the above message. Do read my book (The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation) available in E-version on Google Play books and Kindle. Paperback Edition is available on Amazon.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
GOLD OUTLOOK for the rest of Q4 2024 and Weekly Outlook In this outlook I share my elite edge that I've never shared before with anyone, in hopes that it will help you with obtaining the biggest moves in your trading career. In my opinion, I believe that we have capped the high for the Gold trading year, and now we are trading the closing wick back into the overall range. In this broadcast I share projections and insights that should help you get on side with the market so that you can participate in the massive move on the near horizon. Thanks and enjoy.
How to Manage Gold RisesGold is likely to continue its upward trend.
And how I have been managing it both as an investor and a trader for the Gold. I hope this tutorial will be helpful for two groups of people:
1. Those who already have some positions and would like to know how to accumulate more, and
2. Those who do not yet have a position but are considering getting in and trading it, though you may be worried about entering at a peak, as gold continues to reach new highs.
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
GOLD and Silver Futures OUTLOOK for the week of Oct. 28, 2024Coming into this week we can see both Gold and Silver are trading away from bullish imbalances, also forming SMT's off those imbalances. We also see that both commodities have CISD's coming off the same lows. In my opinion Gold is showing relative strength, given the fact that it has a failure swing at the lows, while the contrary for Silver. My focus will be towards gold being the stronger pair to long in this scenario. Looking forward to a productive week. Bless.
Weekly Forex Forecast OCT. 28: BUY GOLD | XAUUSD!This weekly forecast is for Oct 28 - Nov 1st.
Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. The formation of the highlighted Weekly and Daily +FVGs confirm the bullish order flow. Buys are in order.
I will be avoiding sell setups in this market.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
MGC1! Short Setup - Micro Gold Futures Short (Short Term Trade)Trade Setup: Continuation to a range fill
Entry Setup: Previous low breakout OR flip depends on how steep the top wick is.
Entry Price: not filled yet
SL: 2757.2 (previous 4H high)
TP: 2729.2 (next major support level)
SL TO B/E: Moving SL to breakeven when price will tap 2734 as it is a minor support.
Look like price is going to mirror the move from 21 October.
Just got 4H Closure bearish after rejected from 2752-2757 level.
Last time price was rejected there he tapped 2729.2.
We finished high impact news for today.
I`m waiting for next 1H open to create top wick tap 2745-2746 then ill take the flip or the previous 1H lows breakout as a sell stop.
Did not submitted trade yet, waiting for next 1H open to provide the entry setup.
GOLD | XAUUSD Weekly Outlook Oct 21st: Keep BUYING!This weekly forecast is for Oct. 21 - 25th.
Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. The formation of a +FVG will support higher prices, and we may get that on Monday's close.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST OCT. 14 - 18th: GOLD | XAUUSD Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. There is the potential for an overdue retracement, but I suspect it will be limited. The formation of a +FVG will support higher prices, and we may get that on Monday's close.
Patience....
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: Vega-Neutral Gold Play1. Introduction
Gold is currently in an uptrend, presenting a potentially favorable environment for bullish traders. However, with implied volatility (IV) sitting around its mean, there’s uncertainty about whether IV will rise or fall in the near future. In such a scenario, traders may want to neutralize their vega exposure to avoid being negatively affected by changes in volatility.
This article focuses on setting up a Call Ratio Spread, a bullish option strategy that provides positive delta while allowing for further adjustments that could keep vega neutral. This allows traders to capitalize on Gold’s potential uptrend while minimizing risk from changes in implied volatility.
2. Current Market Context
The Gold futures market shows strong levels of support, which reinforces the bullish outlook. On the continuous Gold futures chart above GC1!, we observe key support levels at 2646.2 and 2627.2-2572.5. These levels could act as price floors, helping the uptrend continue if tested.
Similarly, when examining the contract-specific below chart for GCQ2025, we identify supports at 2725.4 and 2729.5-2705.5. These levels provide solid ground for bullish trades on this specific contract, giving traders additional confidence in entering long positions.
With implied volatility near its average (see the chart below), the market’s future volatility direction is unclear. Traders using options may choose adapt to this environment, ensuring that changes in volatility do not work against them.
3. Options Strategy: Call Ratio Spread
To take advantage of Gold’s uptrend while neutralizing the risk from changes in volatility, we could employ a Call Ratio Spread. This strategy offers a bullish stance while maintaining vega neutrality, protecting the trader from swings in implied volatility.
Setup:
Buy 1x 2600 Call at 256.15
Sell 2x 3500 Calls at 23.32
Expiration: July 28, 2025
This configuration generates positive delta, meaning the strategy will benefit from upward price movement. At the same time, by selling two calls at a higher strike, we offset the vega exposure, ensuring that changes in volatility won’t dramatically affect the position.
The strike prices and expiration selected help create a risk profile that works well in a bullish market. The maximum gain potential occurs if Gold continues to rise but stays below the higher 3500 strike, while the vega neutrality minimizes any volatility risks as the trade begins.
Notice the breakeven point for this strategy is 2809.5, meaning the trade becomes profitable if Gold exceeds this level by expiration.
4. Why Use Micros?
Traders looking for a more flexible approach can consider using Micro Gold Futures (symbol: MGC) instead of standard Gold futures contracts. Micro Gold Futures offer smaller contract sizes, which translate into lower margin requirements and a more precise way to control risk. This makes them an attractive alternative for traders with smaller accounts or those looking to scale into positions gradually.
Additionally, Micro Gold Futures allow traders to fine-tune their exposure to Gold without the larger capital commitment required by standard contracts. For those implementing strategies like the Call Ratio Spread, Micros provide a cost-effective way to execute similar trades with a lower financial commitment.
Contract Specs and Margin Requirements
Gold Futures (symbol: GC) represent 100 troy ounces of gold, and their margin requirements can vary depending on market volatility and the broker. Typically, the initial margin requirement for a standard Gold futures contract is around $10,000 to $12,000, but this can fluctuate. For traders seeking more flexibility, Micro Gold Futures (symbol: MGC) offer a smaller contract size, representing 10 troy ounces of gold. The margin requirement for Micro Gold Futures is significantly lower, usually in the range of $1,000 to $1,200, making it a more accessible option for those with smaller accounts or those looking to fine-tune their exposure.
5. Risk Management
As with any options trade, managing risk is essential. In the case of a Call Ratio Spread, the primary risk comes from the naked short calls at the 3500 strike price. If Gold rallies aggressively beyond 3500, the trader faces unlimited risk due to the uncovered nature of the short positions.
To mitigate this risk, traders should consider using stop-loss orders or adjusting the trade if Gold's price approaches the 3500 level too quickly. Another way to eliminate the unlimited risk component to the upside would be to convert the Call Ratio Spread into a Call Butterfly by buying an additional call above the 3500 strike price, effectively capping the risk. This adjustment still allows for positive delta exposure while limiting potential losses if Gold moves sharply higher.
Additionally, monitoring implied volatility is key. While the position starts with neutral vega exposure, this will change as the underlying asset price moves and time passes, especially as expiration approaches. The vega exposure can increase or decrease depending on these factors. If maintaining the vega-neutral characteristic is a priority, further adjustments—such as rolling options or modifying strike prices—could be made to keep the position aligned with the trader’s volatility outlook.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Modern Day Gold RushWe have an extended trend on Gold right now. When will a deep pullback take place?
Let's take a closer look and see...
4 hour trend is extended, and the 1-hour trend has just been recalculated.
We are expecting the 1-hour trend to continue down to a level of demand located near the 100 SMA on the 4 hour chart.
Once we hit demand, then start looking for reversal patterns on the 15 min chart.
We should start seeing TrendCloud signals fire off when all 3 timeframes line up.
For more info on this strategy. Check out the link in my bio.
Don't miss out on the gold rush!
GOLD MAY ROLL OVER. PREPARE TO SELL!Monthly:
Just made new all time highs. The August candle closed within the range of the July candle's trading rang. As retracement is naturally expected when swing highs are swept, a pullback is expected.
Weekly:
Failed to make a new high after the previous candle established a new ATH.
Daily:
Price struggled to move higher for 10 days. Friday's candle established a new low of the week.
SSL target points at the recent swing lows.
It's time for a pullback, imo. Not a reversal. I can see a retracement to the Weekly +FVG
highlighted in the video.
Thanks for watching. If you like the video, leave a LIKE and subscribe.
May profits be upon you.
SELL XAUUSDEarlier I shared to sell XAUUSD but since the market haven't reached our entry, and it came to our BB, that means the market is now heading towards the liquidity area to make the next move.
**The analysis is a little bit late since I can't share it at the same time I'm giving it to my customers.
Follow for more!
Gold futures: possible path to $3k - down then upIt looks like wave 3 is about to reach its climax soon as EWO indicator shows Bearish divergence with the rising price.
Wave 4 down could drop to the valley of smaller wave 4 around $2,285 and touch the downside of very beautiful uptrend. It should stay above the top of wave 1 at $2,085 otherwise the wave count could be invalidated.
Wave 5 in commodities is usually extended, $3k target doesn't look impossible though.
XAUUSD - Gold Analysis using ICT ConceptsHere is a an analysis on XAUUSD using ICT Concepts based on our most recent price action. I take a top-down approach in analyzing price and anticipating future movements. Everything is explained in the video so watch it, and feel free to share your thoughts and ideas on what may be in store for Gold in the coming days, weeks, or months.
- R2F
Gold Futures has taken support of near 50Weeks EMA (Mother line)Gold Futures has taken support of near 50 Weeks EMA (Mother line) which is near 66402. This dip was due to change in customs duty of Gold while thinking rationally. Thus the zone between 67400 and 66402 presents a strong support zone. Mid channel support for gold Futures in case the Mother line is broken remains at mid channel support near 64030. It does not seem likely that we will get a closing below this point but in case we get a closing below 64030 bears will become very empowered and in very unlikely situation Gold futures can fall to 61092. The zone between 56493 and 55091 is a mega support as 55901 is a 200 Week's EMA or Father line. Below this zone in extremely unlikely situation Gold Futures can further find a bottom near channel bottom which is near 53064.
Resistances for Gold Futures are near the zone between 69678 and 71222. Further resistance zone is between 73257 and 74881. If the channel top near 75K is broken the Gold Futures in the very long term can hit anywhere between 82K to 88K.
In my opinion which has a strong bias towards Gold as world is seeing a lot of conflicts and uncertainties due to internal and external geo-political instability, Gold remains an investment option which is accumulate on every dip. Gold actual price and Gold futures price and Price of Gold sold by Jewellers can vary a little bit so please take that into consideration too. The chart here represents Gold Futures movement.
To know more about Mother Father line and their significance and to learn Techno Funda analysis we recommend you read the book The Happy Candles Way. Which is available on Amazon on paperback version. Kindle version of the same book is also available on Amazon Kindle.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.