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Pre-Market Analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and Gold Futures The Nasdaq closed higher with an upper wick on the daily chart. As mentioned previously, this week is expected to show buying pressure at the beginning, followed by selling pressure towards the latter half. After the 240-minute chart's buy signal, the daily chart's MACD is moving closer to the Signal line, indicating buying momentum. However, achieving a complete golden cross appears challenging due to the divergence and angle. The 21,900–22,000 range is considered a short-term high zone, where the market might either sharply drop after forming an upper wick or move sideways before failing the golden cross, leading to a downward shift in the MACD and a subsequent sell-off. Notably, Nvidia, which has been driving the current index, continues to show strength. Monitoring Nvidia's previous high as a resistance point will be crucial. While the 240-minute chart exhibits strong buying pressure, the steep angle of the recent surge suggests that managing risk and opting for selling opportunities near the highs—rather than buying on dips—would be more advantageous. Additionally, keep an eye on key economic indicators such as the ISM Services Index and JOLTS report, which are scheduled for release today. Crude oil closed lower with an upper wick. Given its recent rapid surge, crude oil's daily chart shows significant divergence from the 5-day moving average. It is advantageous to focus on selling at the highs in this scenario. If the price pulls back to the 240-day moving average, observing whether it finds support will be critical. This week, oil could pull back to the 3-week moving average on the weekly chart and then rebound. Therefore, caution is advised against chasing the rally, and selling near previous highs would be prudent. However, buying on dips near the 3-week moving average could present an opportunity. On the longer-term 240-minute chart, a bearish candlestick at the high has triggered a sell signal. It would be wise to anticipate potential sharp declines and prioritize selling during rebounds. For buying opportunities, it is recommended to act cautiously and at significantly lower levels. Gold closed lower with a lower wick. Ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll data, gold is likely to remain range-bound in a consolidation phase. On the weekly chart, gold faces resistance from moving averages, and this week’s key data releases may determine its trend. On the daily chart, while a buy signal was generated, gold failed to make a significant surge, leading to the MACD and Signal line moving sideways. With market flows becoming more uncertain, a range-bound strategy is advisable. On the 240-minute chart, gold could form a triangular consolidation pattern in the short term. Until Friday, trading within a range would be the most effective approach. The weather has turned colder with a cold wave sweeping in, and flu season is here. Please take care of your health, and I wish you successful trading today! ■Nasdaq - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 21,660 / 21,565 / 21,495 / 21,450 -Sell Levels: 21,885 / 21,940 / 22,005 / 22,045 / 22,110 ■Oil - Bullish Market -Buy Levels: 72.80 / 71.90 / 71.00 -Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.20 / 74.85 ■Gold - Range-bound Market -Buy Levels: 2,641 / 2,635 / 2,625 -Sell Levels: 2,652 / 2,658 / 2,666 / 2,672
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Futureguard
Unlocking Gold’s Potential in 2025: What Traders Must Know!!!COMEX:GC1! After a strong rise in 2024, gold has started to solidify its position in 2025. Known for its status as a safe-haven asset, gold benefited from economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and changes in monetary policy. Undoubtedly, by the end of 2024, profit-taking occurred, which caused gold prices to fall from their historic highs. However, as 2025 begins, traders are readjusting their perspectives and strategies, which is providing support to gold. 1. Review of 2024: A Glorious Year for Gold • In 2024, gold saw a significant surge, with prices rising sharply due to various factors. Changes in central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, played a crucial role in driving gold prices higher. Gold ended the year up 27%, marking a 23% increase compared to the previous year. • The primary reasons for the pullback from gold's historic highs were twofold. First, traders began to lock in profits, as the annual price increase for this precious metal seemed too good to be true. Second, U.S. economic data, particularly inflation figures, began to show signs of an unexpected reversal. After dropping to its lowest point in 2024, U.S. inflation data began to rise, causing the Federal Reserve to reconsider its extremely dovish monetary policy, which led to multiple rate cuts throughout the year. By the end of 2024, traders' sentiment indicated that the Fed was unlikely to cut rates further in its next meeting, which resulted in the U.S. dollar index rising relative to gold prices. 2. Recalibrating with a New Perspective • As we enter 2025, traders are considering three key factors that could significantly support gold prices. First, a major event will take place on January 20, when the new president will be inaugurated. The elected president may pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates further, advocating for a lower interest rate environment. This suggests that, despite some members of the Fed being reluctant to lower rates, the Federal Reserve may be compelled to do so under pressure from the new president. • Second, the incoming president is expected to escalate trade tensions with other countries, potentially affecting economic growth and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. If this occurs, it may lead some investors to reconsider the U.S. dollar’s status as a safe-haven currency, which could increase demand for gold. • Third, we are entering a period in which most investors are reallocating funds within their portfolios. Considering the performance over the past two years and the potential for trade policy-driven geopolitical tensions, we may see a fresh influx of capital into gold. 3. Price Trends • Gold prices have now surpassed the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a positive indicator for the trend. As long as prices remain above this level, we may see a more bullish momentum in the market.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by goldong01
Weekly Forex Forecast: GOLD & SILVER Are Bearish! SELL Them!This forecast is for the week of DEC. 16 - 20th. Gold and Silver are both bearish, after raiding the buy side liquidity. Silver is "heavier" than GOLD, so it would be my preferred asset to sell! There is support for lower prices, and no real support for higher prices currently. Seems like a no brainer. Wait for a pullback to the -FVG and look for a proper sell setup, my friends. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!Short
by RT_Money
Gold Trading Strategy for 16th December 2024Gold Trading Strategy Buy Above: The high of the candle which closes above 2662 on a 15-minute chart Sell Below: The low of the candle which closes below 2636 on a 15-minute chart Risk Strategies: Risk Strategy 1: Sell between 2660-2666 Stop-Loss: 2675 Targets: 2648, 2636, 2619 Risk Strategy 2: Buy between 2621-2617 Stop-Loss: 2608 Targets: 2636, 2648, 2660 Additional Tips: Monitoring: Continuously monitor the 15-minute chart for clear buy or sell signals. Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders to manage risk and protect your capital. Market Conditions: Stay updated on market news and events that could impact gold prices. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Please consult with a certified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ramkkyy
GOLD → Consolidation. Which way will the momentum go? XAUUSD in consolidation phase. The market is nervous because of misunderstanding of further actions in anticipation of news. What to expect and what can happen? The US labor market is stronger than expected, but the dollar remained cold amid expectations of more important news. At the moment, there is a 75% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut. But, the dollar is still in demand due to the unstable geopolitical background. At the moment gold depends on the US employment data, ADP and Powell's speech Bad employment data may increase the probability of further Fed rate cuts in 2025. And vice versa. But, this background is unlikely to create a medium-term potential for gold..... Also, in the perspective of NFP... Technically, gold is in consolidation and the price exit from the flag boundaries may be accompanied by a strong impulse. The probability of a further fall is a little higher... Resistance levels: 2651, 2660 Support levels: 2636, 2618 Gold continues to test the support 2636, which only increases the probability of a breakdown and further fall. But on the background of the news, the price may test the resistance before a further fall
FX:XAUUSD
by MarketAnalyzar
Gold Outlook for December 2024Sticking with my conviction that we have indeed capped the high for Gold for 2024 and have already fulfilled a 30% retracement back into the overall range. We could potentially be ranging for the remainder of the year. I'm anticipating major breakouts within Q1 of 2025. If gold decides to breakout of its current range prior to 2025, then I would be anticipating a buy-side manipulation to take price lower towards the equal lows inside of Q3 of 2024. Let me know if you have any comments or questions below, or just your overall thoughts as well. Bless.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2025Short
by chaarate
Safe Haven Volume-Weighted Cross-Asset Correlation Insights1. Introduction Safe-haven assets, such as Gold, Treasuries, and the Japanese Yen, are vital components in diversified portfolios, especially during periods of market uncertainty. These assets tend to attract capital in times of economic distress, serving as hedges against risk. While traditional price correlation analyses have long been used to assess relationships between assets, they often fail to account for the nuances introduced by trading volume and liquidity. In this article, we delve into volume-weighted returns, a metric that incorporates trading volume into correlation analysis. This approach reveals deeper insights into the interplay between safe-haven assets and broader market dynamics. By examining how volume-weighted correlations evolve across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, traders can uncover actionable patterns and refine their strategies. The aim is to provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of safe-haven assets, bridging the gap between traditional price-based correlations and liquidity-driven metrics to empower traders with more comprehensive insights. 2. The Role of Volume in Correlation Analysis Volume-weighted returns account for the magnitude of trading activity, offering a nuanced view of asset relationships. For safe-haven assets, this is particularly important, as periods of high trading volume often coincide with heightened market stress or major economic events. By integrating volume into return calculations, traders can better understand how liquidity flows shape market trends. 3. Heatmap Analysis: Key Insights The heatmaps of volume-weighted return correlations across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes provide a wealth of insights into the behavior of safe-haven assets. Key observations include: Gold (GC) and Treasuries (ZN): These assets exhibit stronger correlations over weekly and monthly timeframes. This alignment often reflects shared macroeconomic drivers, such as inflation expectations or central bank policy decisions, which influence safe-haven demand. Daily Weekly Monthly These findings highlight the evolving nature of cross-asset relationships and the role volume plays in amplifying or dampening correlations. By analyzing these trends, traders can gain a clearer understanding of the market forces at play. 4. Case Studies: Safe-Haven Dynamics Gold vs. Treasuries (GC vs. ZN): Gold and Treasuries are often considered classic safe-haven assets, attracting investor capital during periods of inflationary pressure or market turbulence. Volume-weighted return correlations between these two assets tend to strengthen in weekly and monthly timeframes. For example: During inflationary periods, both assets see heightened demand, reflected in higher trading volumes and stronger correlations. Geopolitical uncertainties, such as trade wars or military conflicts, often lead to synchronized movements as investors seek safety. The volume-weighted perspective adds depth, revealing how liquidity flows into these markets align during systemic risk episodes, providing traders with an additional layer of analysis for portfolio hedging. 5. Implications for Traders Portfolio Diversification: Volume-weighted correlations offer a unique way to assess diversification benefits. For example: Weakening correlations between Gold and Treasuries during stable periods may signal opportunities to increase exposure to other uncorrelated assets. Conversely, stronger correlations during market stress highlight the need to diversify beyond safe havens to reduce concentration risk. Risk Management: Tracking volume-weighted correlations helps traders detect shifts in safe-haven demand. For instance: A sudden spike in the volume-weighted correlation between Treasuries and the Japanese Yen may indicate heightened risk aversion, suggesting a need to adjust portfolio exposure. Declining correlations could signal the return of idiosyncratic drivers, providing opportunities to rebalance holdings. Trade Timing: Volume-weighted metrics can enhance timing strategies by confirming market trends: Strengthening correlations between safe-haven assets can validate macroeconomic narratives, such as inflation fears or geopolitical instability, helping traders align their strategies accordingly. Conversely, weakening correlations may signal the onset of new market regimes, offering early indications for tactical repositioning. 6. Limitations and Considerations While volume-weighted return analysis offers valuable insights, it is essential to understand its limitations: Influence of Extreme Events: Significant market events, such as unexpected central bank announcements or geopolitical crises, can create anomalies in volume-weighted correlations. These events may temporarily distort the relationships between assets, leading to misleading signals for traders who rely solely on this metric. Short-Term Noise: Volume-weighted correlations over shorter timeframes, such as daily windows, are more susceptible to market noise. Sudden spikes in trading volume driven by speculative activity or high-frequency trading can obscure meaningful trends. Interpretation Challenges: Understanding the drivers behind changes in volume-weighted correlations requires a strong grasp of macroeconomic forces and market structure. Without context, traders risk misinterpreting these dynamics, potentially leading to suboptimal decisions. By recognizing these limitations, traders can use volume-weighted correlations as a complementary tool rather than a standalone solution, combining it with other forms of analysis for more robust decision-making. 7. Conclusion Volume-weighted return analysis provides a fresh lens for understanding the complex dynamics of safe-haven assets. By integrating trading volume into correlation metrics, this approach uncovers liquidity-driven relationships that are often missed in traditional price-based analyses. Key takeaways from this study include: Safe-haven assets such as Gold, Treasuries, and the Japanese Yen exhibit stronger volume-weighted correlations over longer timeframes, driven by shared macroeconomic forces. For traders, the practical applications are clear: volume-weighted correlations can potentially enhance portfolio diversification, refine risk management strategies, and improve market timing. By incorporating this type of methodology into their workflow, market participants can adapt to shifting market conditions with greater precision. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Rolling Correlations and Applications for Traders and Investors1. Introduction Markets are dynamic, and the relationships between assets are constantly shifting. Static correlation values, calculated over fixed periods, may fail to capture these changes, leading traders to miss critical insights. Rolling correlations, on the other hand, provide a continuous view of how correlations evolve over time, making them a powerful tool for dynamic market analysis. This article explores the concept of rolling correlations, illustrates key trends with examples like ZN (10-Year Treasuries), GC (Gold Futures), and 6J (Japanese Yen Futures), and discusses their practical applications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and timing market entries and exits. 2. Understanding Rolling Correlations o What Are Rolling Correlations? Rolling correlations measure the relationship between two assets over a moving window of time. By recalculating correlations at each step, traders can observe how asset relationships strengthen, weaken, or even reverse. For example, the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals periods of alignment (strong correlation) during economic uncertainty and divergence when driven by differing macro forces. o Why Rolling Correlations Matter: Capture dynamic changes in market relationships. Detect regime shifts, such as transitions from risk-on to risk-off sentiment. Provide context for recent price movements and their alignment with historical trends. o Impact of Window Length: The length of the rolling window (e.g., 63 days for daily, 26 weeks for weekly) impacts the sensitivity of correlations: Shorter Windows: Capture rapid changes but may introduce noise. Longer Windows: Smooth out fluctuations, focusing on sustained trends. 3. Case Study: ZN (Treasuries) vs GC (Gold Futures) Examining the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals valuable insights into their behavior as safe-haven assets: o Daily Rolling Correlation: High variability reflects the influence of short-term market drivers like inflation data or central bank announcements. Peaks in correlation align with periods of heightened risk aversion, such as in early 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. o Weekly Rolling Correlation: Provides a clearer view of their shared response to macroeconomic conditions. For example, the correlation strengthens during sustained inflationary periods when both assets are sought as hedges. o Monthly Rolling Correlation: Reflects structural trends, such as prolonged periods of monetary easing or tightening. Divergences, such as during mid-2023, may indicate unique demand drivers for each asset. These observations highlight how rolling correlations help traders understand the evolving relationship between key assets and their implications for broader market trends. 4. Applications of Rolling Correlations Rolling correlations are more than just an analytical tool; they offer practical applications for traders and investors: 1. Portfolio Diversification: By monitoring rolling correlations, traders can identify periods when traditionally uncorrelated assets start aligning, reducing diversification benefits. 2. Risk Management: Rolling correlations help traders detect concentration risks. For example, if ZN and 6J correlations remain persistently high, it could indicate overexposure to safe-haven assets. Conversely, weakening correlations may signal increasing portfolio diversification. 3. Timing Market Entry/Exit: Strengthening correlations can confirm macroeconomic trends, helping traders align their strategies with market sentiment. 5. Practical Insights for Traders Incorporating rolling correlation analysis into trading workflows can enhance decision-making: Shorter rolling windows (e.g., daily) are suitable for short-term traders, while longer windows (e.g., monthly) cater to long-term investors. Adjust portfolio weights dynamically based on correlation trends. Hedge risks by identifying assets with diverging rolling correlations (e.g., if ZN-GC correlations weaken, consider adding other uncorrelated assets). 6. Practical Example: Applying Rolling Correlations to Trading Decisions To illustrate the real-world application of rolling correlations, let’s analyze a hypothetical scenario involving ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold), and 6J (Yen Futures): 1. Portfolio Diversification: A trader holding ZN notices a decline in its rolling correlation with GC, indicating that the two assets are diverging in response to unique drivers. Adding GC to the portfolio during this period enhances diversification by reducing risk concentration. 2. Risk Management: During periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., late 2022), rolling correlations between ZN and 6J rise sharply, indicating a shared safe-haven demand. Recognizing this, the trader reduces exposure to both assets to mitigate over-reliance on risk-off sentiment. 3. Market Entry/Exit Timing: Periods where the rolling correlation between ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) transitions from negative to positive signal that the two assets are potentially regaining their historical correlation after a phase of divergence. During these moments, traders can utilize a simple moving average (SMA) crossover on each asset to confirm synchronized directional movement. For instance, as shown in the main chart, the crossover highlights key points where both ZN and GC aligned directionally, allowing traders to confidently initiate positions based on this corroborative setup. This approach leverages both correlation dynamics and technical validation to align trades with prevailing market trends. These examples highlight how rolling correlations provide actionable insights that improve portfolio strategy, risk management, and trade timing. 7. Conclusion Rolling correlations offer a dynamic lens through which traders and investors can observe evolving market relationships. Unlike static correlations, rolling correlations adapt to shifting macroeconomic forces, revealing trends that might otherwise go unnoticed. By incorporating rolling correlations into their analysis, market participants can: Identify diversification opportunities and mitigate concentration risks. Detect early signs of market regime shifts. Align their portfolios with dominant trends to enhance performance. In a world of constant market changes, rolling correlations can be a powerful tool for navigating complexity and making smarter trading decisions. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Gold Lost Steam as New US Administration to Take World StageCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) On Monday, gold prices tumbled 3% on reports of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and the nomination of Scott Bessent as the U.S. Treasury Secretary. Spot gold fell 3.4% to $2,619.43 per ounce. COMEX gold futures shed 3.4% to $2,620.8. As a safe-haven investment, gold holds strong appeal with the rise of geopolitical crisis. After the US presidential election, investors anticipated that both the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East neared end. The new Treasury pick reduces the risk of escalating trade conflicts, as we have seen in Mr. Trump’s first term. Overall, gold falls on anticipation of lower geopolitical risks in the second Trump presidency. Where would gold prices go from here? I find it useful to analyze the 5-year price trends and identify key factors driving gold prices up and down. From December 2019 to October 2024, golds prices rose 88%. Gold’s recent plunge started in late October, as market anticipated a Trump win. During this five-year period, gold prices have seen significant rises for five times, and major pullbacks for four times. Gold Bull Trends and the Key Drivers: • When the COVID pandemic broke out in January 2020, gold prices rose sharply, and the stock market plummeted. This highlights gold's safe-haven investment function. • In February 2022, gold prices rose in response to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Geopolitical crisis was the key driver. • High inflation in the US, peaked at a 9.1% CPI in July 2022, pushed gold prices to record high. Gold is considered a good hedge for inflation. • In October 2023, the Hamas-Israeli conflict broke out. Gold rallied again as a safe-haven investment. • The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a massive 50 basis points at its September 2024 policy meeting, followed by another 25-bp cut in November. With the expectation of more Fed cuts, gold started a new rally in July 2024. The trade logic: Fed cuts reduce the rate of return on interest-bearing assets such as Treasury bonds and bank deposits, which on turn makes gold investment more appealing. Gold Bear Trends and the Key Drivers: • China resumed manufacturing activities relatively soon after the pandemic. While the U.S. and Europe were still on lockdown and standstill, Chinese goods were exported to fill the gap. This helped lower the perceived risk of an once-a-century health crisis. Gold prices pulled back as a result. • The Russia-Ukraine conflict entered a stalemate. It did not spread to other European countries and escalated into World War 3. The geopolitical crisis has subsided, and as a result, gold prices withdrew from advancing. • After the Fed hiked rates 11 times in a row, US inflation has finally cooled down. Gold completed its mission as inflation hedge. Consequently, investors pulled money out of gold and into stocks, causing gold prices to fall. Trade Setup with Micro Gold Futures On November 5th, Mr. Trump won by a landslide and was re-elected as the 47th U.S President. In the following three weeks, he quickly completed the nomination of 15-member Cabinet in his new administration. Based on campaign promises and new Cabinet picks, investors interpret the new Trump policy in a series of the so-called "Trump trades". In my own opinion, these include strong US dollar, weak gold prices and a secular bull market for cryptocurrencies. • The ascension of a political strongman could bring about ceasefires in both the Russia-Ukraine front and the Middle East. As we recall the relatively peace time during the first Trump term, the expected de-escalation of geopolitical crises in his second term could drive gold prices down in the next four years. • The "America First" policy is bullish for US dollar. 1) Bringing manufacturing back onshore would strengthen U.S. economy. 2) High tariffs would reduce trade deficits overtime, although inflation may go up in the short term. 3) Slashing fiscal spending by $2 trillion a year would shore up the government coffer. Combined, these policies would defend the dollar's status as an international reserve currency. The dollar index has risen from 103 to 107 in the past month. A strong dollar is bearish for the dollar-denominated gold, as foreign investors would pay more with foreign currencies. • Mr. Trump is a strong supporter of cryptocurrencies. In the past three months, bitcoin has doubled in prices from $50,000 to nearly $100,000. The campaign promise to establishment of a central bank reserve for bitcoin, if materialized, would push crypto prices significantly higher in the next four years. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on November 19th, total Open Interest (OI) for Gold Futures is 502,952 contracts, down 33,029 or -6.2% from prior week. Leading the position cutback is Managed Money, which reduces 10,306 (-5.1%) in long positions and 15,911 (-25.6%) in spreading positions. Movement of the “Small Money” is a good indicator of future price trend. Based on the above analysis, if a trader is bearish on gold prices, he could express his opinions by shorting the COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces. With Monday settlement price of 2,712.2, each December contract (MGCZ4) has a notional value of $27,122. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,150. The MGC contracts are very liquid. On Monday, MGC has a daily trade volume of 178,663 contracts and an Open Interest of 51,364. Hypothetically, if gold prices pull back 5% further to 2,576.6, a short position would gain $1,356 (=135.6 x $10). Using initial margin as cost base, a theoretical return would be +118% (= 1356 / 1150). The risk of shorting futures is a rise on gold prices. Investors could lose part or all of their initial margin. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
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