A Virtual Long Call Option on Gold with TGDTGD came up in my Deep Value screeners as one of the highest ranked companies in the screener, so I took a look to see what they were about. Timmins Gold Corp is obviously a gold mining company, so right away I knew their success or demise was closely tied to whatever the price of gold did. Before going into the fundamentals, let's take a look at the charts.
Since late January of this year, TGD has been consolidating nicely around the 0.35 - 0.42 price levels. I liked the length of the consolidation, and the overall chart seemed pretty well set up for a high run breakout if the price action dictated. Liking the chart, I headed over to check out the fundamentals of this company to see if there could be any substance to the breakout, or if the breakout would even be justified.
TGD is trading at 3.77 times earnings, 0.94 times book value, and is trading 3.59 times its free cash flow. Not bad ratios, and it clearly makes this a deep value play within the gold sector. Taking a look at some of the return percentages for the company I was pleased to find that TGD had an Operating Margin of 30%, ROA of 20%, ROC of 25%, and a 21% ROI. Pretty impressive. Next, I took a look at their cash positions, because I love investing in companies with a ton of cash (RGR is a perfect example of this idea of tons of cash, no debt, and it paying off). TGD's Current Ratio is 3.01, more than enough cash to cover its debts.
Taking everything into consideration, this is virtually a long call option on the price of gold without the theta (time decay). I am looking for it to break that consolidation pattern, perhaps the 0.46 price level, at which I would go long, and place my stop right below the consolidation pattern at 0.30. Once again, I want to stress that although the company appears to be solid fundamentally, they are very correlated to whatever the price of Gold does. If gold goes south, TGD will most likely follow. However, if you're long term bullish on the price of gold like I am, this could be a way to expose yourself to gold without having to invest purely in gold or gold futures.
As always, critiquing and disagreements on my theses are encouraged.
All the best,
RC
Goldfutures
Goldminers Shares anticipate Gold Price movesIf you look at Goldminers Companies (such as AU, ABX, NEM etc.), and you overlay those companies over a Gold Future GC line, you can see that the trend changes are started by the goldminer companies before the gold price follows. In the chart above you see that Gold GC (thick blue line) is a few days behind the goldminers shares. Just overlay some of those companies on your charts, when you try to find the entry/exit spots.
Gold Long - LTGold is looking to break the 2011 downward trend line.
If you look at the RSI, you can see that gold has been in consolidation since early 2013.
I truly believe we will break the trend this year, with fundamentals supporting this move.
We may not initially break the trend this month, however the only downside risk I see is to the 1230-1240 area (my thin line).
Goodluck.
violently been pull back out of the 1220 ish battle zone Trump speach before congress had a nice effect on the usd and gold react accordingly , went strait back into the 1220 battle zone the got vilently faught back out of it . I mean this kind of candle just mean reaction and the next support to the up side would be the 1240 1245 zone for completion of an nice head and shoulder pattern . If those price manage to contend price action then we can start talking about a reversal in the dollar . but it to soon for that on the other side a breach on the other side of the 1250 mark would mean a continuation of the up trend on the gold , so new target on the up side and down target on usd
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3 Cups - Gold BullishThere's about a roughly, umm, 0% chance they raise rates in March.
Nice try grandma.
Gold - 1220 SupportWe have had 2 strong bounces off the 1220 area, with both bounces hitting above 1230.
It must be noted that the level we got rejected at (1240), is the bottom of the past low we made in October. It appears that passing this level is the gateway to 1280.
It will be interesting to see if gold even bothers retesting 1220 again in the next few days, rather than attempting to make new high. I will also be paying attention to grandma's speech today, and seeing if she strengthens the USD.
Gold longRe-longed gold on Friday, 1W and 1D both still look very healthy for bulls.
Cross on 1W MACD, with the 5EMA looking to cross through the 50/100EMA.
We saw a big bounce off 1220 on Friday which served as strong support and reassures me of my long position.
Gold DirectionAs I posted in my prior idea, I sold my gold position this morning when the DXY started to rally.
I am still long-term bull with gold, however it is clear to me that this move wants to retest the 1220 area as this was significant resistance over the past few weeks. There's currently a bearish engulfing on the 1D chart, and the MACD is looking to test a break back down. Furthermore, the golden cross that we got this week, looks like it wants to retest the 100 EMA.
I am currently holding a short position from 1237, and will be looking to re-enter long off a bounce from the 1210-1220 area.
Gold still has bull momentum, and is still within the trend-line (both price and RSI). On top of that, the Fed isn't going to raise rates in March, so my long-term opinion on gold hasn't changed.
Gold - Cup and handle continuedSo it looks like my cup and handle idea played out well.
We are making higher highs, and lower lows, which is very bullish for gold, yet we are having resistance at the 100 EMA. Once this is cleared, we should move up rather quickly.
I believe with 99.99% certainty NFP will beat tomorrow, which will cause an initial drop in gold, but due to the fact that gold rallied after the ADP numbers, and the fact that the two reports are so closely linked, I believe this drop will be bought up before close.
Cup and handle - GoldI'm still in this gold long, and thankfully was able to add to my position got ABX and SSRI on the way down last week.
Small sell-offs like last week are very common during a baby bull, people tend to get nervous when they see some selling, which adds fuel to these sell offs. The best advice I can give is to review your charts, and trust in your analysis, whether you're bull or bear.
The next leg up in goldThis is the year we see a strong break through that resistance level established in 2011.
RSI trending up with bull divergence since 2013. I see a 2016 clone-type move for 2017.
Will we pause/drop $20 every $80 gain? Yes. But do not confuse consolidation with a bear. The bear market ended in January of 2016.
This is a long-term trade.
GC undergo an downtrendAlready build a short position at 1218. Gold fails to break out strong resistance and potentially go down to retest 1200.
Consolidation in gold?It looks like gold has begun to consolidate a bit before it's next leg up.
I went long again with a medium sized position on Thursday, and will be looking to add to my position every time this dips closer to the red band on my chart.
This will be the year of gold imo, and I will be long all year.
Continue to long gold.RSI has been trending up since 2013, making higher highs, and lower lows.
This is paired with my other ideas.
Gold 1M outlookI thought it would make sense to look at the 1M chart in order to analyze gold for the longer term, based on a purely technical analysis.
The orange bar has become a resistance level since 2011, and this trend has held up to now. With that being said, both the RSI and MACD bottomed out in 2013, yet we've seen consistently lower prices since then. We also seem to have started a new bull RSI trend since this bottom as well, hitting higher lows on the RSI for each drop in price.
We look towards 2017 as the year we can finally break this orange trend-line established over 5 years ago, as the RSI and MACD are pointing us towards another re-test.
I will not only be watching the $1200 level (which has been a key transition area for years), however I will also be watching the $1270-1300 level, as this would be the retest level for the orange bar.
Gold - Bar Test #2Gold tested the key transition area of 1200 today and got rejected slightly.
This is still the key area we have to watch here, as a hard rejection could send us to a lower low, but a strong break could launch us to a higher high than 2016.
The next few days should be very telling for gold going forward.
(there is still bullish divergence in the RSI)
Gold Update - Red Bar TestGold seems to be itching to retest an area that was important for transition during 2016.
I am still long in miners, and it has been clear over the past week that gold has broken it's downward trend.
Depending on how my natgas trade plays out over this week, I will be taking my profits from that trade and buying any dips in gold.
BULLISH DIVERGENCE IN GOLDI believe there is currently a strong bullish divergence in the RSI and MACD.
My TP is 1250$, and I will re-evaluate gold when/if we get to that level.
We are currently making higher lows in both the MACD and RSI (while the price decreases), which leads me to believe we will see a strong up move in the following days.
My advice is to avoid listening to the gold chat too much, as people will claim 1000$ if we drop 1$, or 1400$ if we go up 1$. I would also advise to avoid listening to people who do not post charts, yet seem to be spamming the chat with nonsense all day, or the people who post charts, but continue to change their opinion/strategy every 10 seconds.
There are a lot of people on here who provide advice based off their current position (their own interests), so be careful when following others. Follow your strategy, and stick to your chart.
Goodluck.
GOLD CHANNEL PART 2We are currently trading in a very strong bull channel.
My long position was supported today when bounced very sharply from the 1286 level, and the MACD is about to cross. My expectation for the NFP is that they will miss, and we will see 130-150K jobs added in October (which the fed will justify is still enough to raise).
However we are clearly in a bull-trend right now, and we should continue this trend to 1400 in the upcoming months.
