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Gold Futures has taken support of near 50Weeks EMA (Mother line)Gold Futures has taken support of near 50 Weeks EMA (Mother line) which is near 66402. This dip was due to change in customs duty of Gold while thinking rationally. Thus the zone between 67400 and 66402 presents a strong support zone. Mid channel support for gold Futures in case the Mother line is broken remains at mid channel support near 64030. It does not seem likely that we will get a closing below this point but in case we get a closing below 64030 bears will become very empowered and in very unlikely situation Gold futures can fall to 61092. The zone between 56493 and 55091 is a mega support as 55901 is a 200 Week's EMA or Father line. Below this zone in extremely unlikely situation Gold Futures can further find a bottom near channel bottom which is near 53064. Resistances for Gold Futures are near the zone between 69678 and 71222. Further resistance zone is between 73257 and 74881. If the channel top near 75K is broken the Gold Futures in the very long term can hit anywhere between 82K to 88K. In my opinion which has a strong bias towards Gold as world is seeing a lot of conflicts and uncertainties due to internal and external geo-political instability, Gold remains an investment option which is accumulate on every dip. Gold actual price and Gold futures price and Price of Gold sold by Jewellers can vary a little bit so please take that into consideration too. The chart here represents Gold Futures movement. To know more about Mother Father line and their significance and to learn Techno Funda analysis we recommend you read the book The Happy Candles Way. Which is available on Amazon on paperback version. Kindle version of the same book is also available on Amazon Kindle. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by Happy_Candles_Investment
GC/Gold 1H Buy Idea 6/15/24Price has broken the trendline and has now retested on the other side with a hammer forming as the market closed. Looking for price to continue bullish into next week. Keep in mind that price could very well break below the trendline again to form a M with the double top that is possibly forming as well. BUT I'm leaning more towards the buy because of price currently coming to the 1/4H Highs from 6/12/24 **This is for educational purposes only and this is not financial advice because I am not a financial advisor.**
COMEX:GC1!Long
by cecedidit
GC1! / Gold / Xau - Idea I.Hey Guys… Yearly Chart: Bullish Engulfing Pattern 2367 and 2283 are important Yearly FIB levels to watch Above we find 2485 and 2543 Below we find 2230 and 2150 Quarterly Chart: Bearish Star? -> Q3 will tell. -> Stochastics at level 90 monthly: a little weakness after the Rallye - 2 Stars and an Inside Bar - Stachastic is OB and turning. Will be happy to take a reversal if the signal occurs (using a trading system) 3D: Bullish breakout is generally to be expected. = Neutral to Bullish
COMEX:GC1!
by MeruEU
China Halt Buying Gold - Time to sell? But when to buy again?Is there still demand for gold by central banks around the world, and is gold heading for a correction? We will look into some data on the central banks' interest in this precious metal and discuss how to trade gold during this period. Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Short
by konhow
9
Options Blueprint Series: Swap Strategies for High VolatilityIntroduction CME Group Gold Futures have always been a cornerstone in the commodities market, offering investors and traders a way to hedge against economic uncertainties and inflation. With the current market environment exhibiting heightened volatility, traders are looking for strategies to capitalize on these fluctuations. One such strategy is the Straddle Swap, which is particularly effective in high volatility scenarios. By utilizing the Straddle Swap strategy on Gold Futures, traders can potentially benefit from price swings driven by news events, economic data releases, and other market-moving occurrences. Strategy Explanation The Straddle Swap strategy is designed to capitalize on high volatility by leveraging options with different expirations. Here’s a detailed breakdown of how this strategy works: Components of the Straddle Swap: 1. Buy one call option (longer expiration) This long call option benefits from upward price movements in Gold Futures. 2. Sell one call option (shorter expiration) This short call option generates premium income, which offsets the cost of the long call option. As it has a shorter expiration, it benefits from faster time decay. 3. Buy one put option (longer expiration) This long put option benefits from downward price movements in Gold Futures. 4. Sell one put option (shorter expiration) This short put option generates premium income, which offsets the cost of the long put option. It also benefits from faster time decay due to its shorter expiration. Rationale for Different Expirations: Longer Expirations: The options with more days to expiration provide a longer timeframe to capture significant price movements, whether upward or downward. Shorter Expirations: The options with less days to expiration decay more quickly, providing premium income that reduces the overall cost of the strategy. This helps mitigate the effects of time decay on the longer-dated options. Market Analysis Using TradingView Charts: To effectively implement the Straddle Swap strategy, it’s crucial to analyze the current market conditions of Gold Futures using TradingView charts. This analysis will help identify optimal entry and exit points based on volatility and price trends. The current price action of Gold Futures along with key volatility indicators. Recent data shows that the 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month Historical Volatilities have all been on the rise, confirming a high volatility scenario. Application to Gold Futures Let’s apply the Straddle Swap strategy to Gold Futures given the current market conditions. Identifying Optimal Entry Points: Call Options: Buy one call option with a 100-day expiration (Sep-25 2024) at a strike price of 2370 @ 64.5. Sell one call option with a 71-day expiration (Aug-27 2024) at the same strike price of 2370 @ 53.4. Put Options: Buy one put option with a 100-day expiration (Sep-25 2024) at a strike price of 2350 @ 63.4. Sell one put option with a 71-day expiration (Aug-27 2024) at the same strike price of $2350 @ 52.5. Target Prices: Based on the relevant UFO support and resistance levels, set target prices for potential profit scenarios: Upper side, target price: 2455. For put options, target price: 2260. Potential Profit and Loss Scenarios: Scenario 1: Significant Upward Movement If Gold Futures rise sharply above 2370 within 100 days, the long call option will generate a potentially substantial profit. The short call option will expire in 71 days, limiting potential losses. Scenario 2: Significant Downward Movement If Gold Futures fall sharply below 2350 within 100 days, the long put option will generate a potentially substantial profit. The short put option will expire in 71 days, limiting potential losses. Scenario 3: Minimal Movement If Gold Futures remain relatively stable, the premiums collected from the short options (71-day expiration) will offset some of the cost of the long options (100-day expiration), minimizing overall losses. Further options could be sold against the long 2350 call and long 2350 put once the shorter expiration options have expired. Specific Action Plan: 1. Initiate the Straddle Swap Strategy: Enter the positions as outlined above following your trading plan, ensuring to buy and sell the options at the desired strike prices and expirations. 2. Monitor Market Conditions: Continuously monitor Gold Futures prices and volatility indicators. Adjust or close the strategy if necessary based on significant market changes. 3. Manage Positions: Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. If the market moves favorably, consider exiting the positions at the target prices to lock in profits. 4. Reevaluate Periodically: Periodically reevaluate the positions as the options approach their expiration dates. Make any necessary adjustments to the strategy based on updated market conditions and volatility. By following this type of trade plan, traders can effectively implement the Straddle Swap strategy, taking advantage of high volatility in Gold Futures while managing risk through careful monitoring and the use of stop-loss orders. Risk Management Effective risk management is crucial for success in options trading, particularly when employing strategies like the Straddle Swap. Here, we will discuss the importance of risk management, key techniques, and best practices to ensure that traders can mitigate potential losses and protect their capital. Importance of Risk Management: Minimizing Losses: Trading inherently involves risk. Effective risk management helps minimize potential losses, ensuring that a single adverse move does not significantly impact the trader’s overall portfolio. Preserving Capital: By managing risk, traders can preserve their capital, allowing them to stay in the market longer and capitalize on future opportunities. Enhancing Profitability: Proper risk management allows traders to optimize their strategies, potentially increasing profitability by avoiding unnecessary losses. Key Risk Management Techniques: 1. Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders helps limit potential losses by automatically closing a position if the market moves against it. For the Straddle Swap strategy, set stop-loss orders for the long call and put options to exit positions if prices reach predetermined levels where losses would exceed the desired trade risk set by the trader. 2. Hedging: Use hedging techniques to protect positions from adverse market movements. This can involve purchasing protective options or futures contracts. Hedging provides an additional layer of security, ensuring that losses in one position are offset by gains in another. 3. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: Ensure that all positions have defined risk parameters. Avoid strategies that can result in unlimited losses. The Straddle Swap strategy inherently has limited risk due to the offsetting nature of the long and short options. 4. Precision in Entries and Exits: Timing is crucial in options trading. Ensure precise entry and exit points to maximize potential gains and minimize losses. Use technical analysis key price levels such as UFO support and resistance prices, and volatility indicators to identify optimal entry and exit points. 5. Regular Monitoring and Adjustment: Continuously monitor market conditions and the performance of open positions. Be prepared to adjust the strategy based on changing market dynamics, such as shifts in volatility or unexpected news events. Additional Risk Management Practices: Diversification: Spread risk across multiple positions and asset classes to reduce the impact of any single trade. Other liquid options markets could be WTI Crude Oil Futures; Agricultural products such as Wheat Futures, Corn Futures, or Soybean Futures; Index Futures such as the E-mini S&P 500 Futures; and even Bond and Treasury Futures such as the 10-Year Note or the 30-Year Bond Futures. Position Sizing: Carefully determine the size of each position based on the trader’s overall portfolio and risk tolerance. Education and Research: Stay informed about market conditions, economic indicators, and trading strategies to make well-informed decisions. By incorporating these risk management techniques, traders can effectively navigate the complexities of options trading and protect their investments. Ensuring more precision with entries and exits, using stop-loss orders, and implementing hedging strategies are essential practices that contribute to long-term trading success. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GCV2024Education
by traddictiv
10
Stock market weakness affects goldGold retreated over $100 from its all-time highs established earlier this month. Interestingly, this move down follows a pullback of similar magnitude in the U.S. stock market, which we have repeatedly referred to as a threat to gold’s spectacular performance; one minor detail to point out here is that this time around, gold seems to be falling in reaction to what has been happening in the stock market, unlike in previous corrections throughout 2023 and 2024, when gold either preceded weakness in stocks or did not react to it. But now, the stock market appears to be at a critical point of either breaking down or staging a recovery, with many big names reporting their earnings this week, which can help to achieve one of these objectives. If corporate results do not meet investors’ expectations and, by any chance, there are significant downgrades to future guidance along with announcements of new layoffs, then it is unlikely the situation will calm investors’ nerves and lead to recovery. Contrarily, it is more likely to produce more fear among market participants, which could inadvertently lead to more selling in the stock market, accompanied by weakness in gold. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily graph of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. The area between $2,000 and $2,075 acts as an important base in the case of a strong stock market selloff. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 depicts XAUUSD’s RSI on the weekly timeframe. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover, a worrisome sign for gold. The same crossover can also be observed on the daily chart; besides that, Stochastic and MACD also reversed to the downside. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling with bearish signs) *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
2
XAUUSD Spot Gold sell-off may stimulate a rally LONGSpot Gold has fallen 5% since the Middle East conflicts have lessened at least transiently. Other fundamentals like the Chinese government and indeed its citizens as well as the central banks of several nations buying gold in high volumes support price from significantly falling from here. Supported by volume profile specifics as well as the Fibonacci retracement levels reversing the trend down, I see this as a buying opportunity where other dip buyers will hold the price up and support the reversal. I firmly believe that the day will come where prices of the present would be considered a huge bargain. At this time, they are fair value for sure.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
Gold's RoadmapGold (June) / Silver (May) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2383.0, up 8.9 Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 28.717, up 0.387 Gold futures traded above $2400 and Silver above $29 early in the session but did see a wave of profit taking through the thick of European hours, but are attempting to stabilize ahead of the U.S. bell. The construction off Friday’s sharp reversal is fairly remarkable, and another favorable close today would help to neutralize the negative sentiment produced by that reversal. Gold is the leader this morning and has responded to major three-star support at 2378.2-2384.7. While holding out above here is a positive, extending gains above 2404.3-2408.5 may be needed to fulfill those shoes Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 2399.2**, 2404.3-2408.5***, 2411.3-2412.9***, 2425.6**, 2337.3-2448.8***, 2466.5***, 2539.3-2560.1**** Pivot: 2389.6-2394.5 Support: 2378.2-2384.7***, 2365.8-2369**, 2360.2-2362.6***, 2348.1-2351***, 2327.1-2343.1**** Silver (May) Resistance: 28.56-28.69**, 28.88-28.90**, 29.05-29.22***, 29.88-30.35*** Pivot: 28.44 Support: 28.18-28.24**, 27.93**, 27.64-27.76***, 27.34-27.51***, 26.93-26.97***, 26.40-26.48*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
$2,300 hit amid gold's steep riseShortly after the futures market opened, gold reached our long-time-awaited price target of $2,300 and established a new all-time high at $2,305 before retreating slightly lower. We continue to be bullish on gold in the long term and believe it can reach significantly higher price tags ($2,500 and higher) due to future rate cuts, sticky inflation, and a weak U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, despite our bullish beliefs, there are certain developments in the market to consider and watch out for. According to the World Gold Council's report earlier this year (and information from Metals Focus and ICE Benchmark Administration), gold total demand rose approximately 3% YoY in 2023. However, what is intriguing about this figure is that the majority of the mentioned sectors in the report experienced year-over-year declines in demand that same year, including electronics, dentistry, technology, jewelry fabrication, gold bars, central bank purchases, ETFs, and investment. In fact, only four sectors showed positive gains, with most of the demand coming from over-the-counter and other (recording a 753% rise YoY); the rest of the categories that gained include industrial demand, imitation coins, and jewelry consumption (these rises are notably smaller though). Now, with gold being up 26% merely in the past six months, the question stands as to whether there will be enough demand from over-the-counter (and other sectors, which seems unlikely) in the coming months as well because gold’s elevated price (perhaps coupled with slowing down economic activity in certain parts of the world) seems to be already taking some toll on the demand side. Besides that, while bullish and still leaving some room for the upside, multiple technical indicators on daily and weekly time frames show overbought conditions that should not be overlooked, especially with gold’s lengthy history of steep rises being shortly followed by volatile drops. Furthermore, as we outlined numerous times before, the stock market’s relentless rise and the growing odds of correction threaten gold’s performance with each step higher (in the case of a substantial correction or selloff in the stock market, gold will likely be negatively affected). Illustration 1.01 As gold’s price explores uncharted waters, volume continues to increase on the daily graph, which is positive; a declining volume and rising price would be questionable. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Illustration 1.03 The price and RSI show the divergence on the daily chart. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
If Support Breaks, Where Does Silver Go?Gold (June) / Silver (May) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2348.4, down 14.0 Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 28.052, up 0.068 Yesterday’s warm CPI and weak 10-year auction paved the way for a much-needed consolidation day for Gold and Silver. Still, the precious metals complex battled valiantly, exuding bull market trends within the intraday swings. Geopolitical headlines are certainly helping to stave off indiscriminate selling, but we now look to another slate of inflation data via PPI, coupled with an ECB policy decision this morning and a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT. Silver futures even went as far as setting a new local high after yesterday’s CPI data, but the broad risk-off undertow was just too much. Construction in Silver out above yesterday’s low of 27.64-27.76 and support aligning with Gold’s low of 2340.1-2343.1 should help fuel a bull continuation into the weekend. In the event of further weakness, we have additional levels of significant support highlighted below. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 2363.7-2364.1**, 2369.4-2371***, 2380.2-2384.5***, 2400**, 2466.5***, 2539.3-2560.1**** Pivot: 2355 Support: 2348.1-2351***, 2340.1-2343.1***, 2334.2-2337.1***, 2321.7-2325.3***, 2315.7**, 2298.7-2299.6***, 2285.7-2286.2***, 2279-2281.8*** Silver (May) Resistance: 28.15-28.24**, 28.39-28.44**, 28.57-28.66***, 28.71-28.90**, 29.22***, 29.88-30.35*** Pivot: 28.05 Support: 27.84-27.90**, 27.64-27.76***, 27.34-27.51***, 26.93-26.97***, 26.40-26.48*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:SI1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
GOLD Price Prediction: NEW PARADIGM OR EXIT SCAM?!Here is the 14 years of GOLD price history and action. Looking at it we can locate a lot of triangle shaped during its movement. 📌 Nowadays we facing resistance zone of $1860 (2011-high) and this is important zone for the whole world. Here is the chart of GOLD (XAUUSD) as pic: Price consolidate in triangles over and over from 2007 and this is quite interesting. Now price in the upward triangle shape, which can be broken down according to 2011 same shape of triangle. In 2011 we faced European Debt Crisis and price of gold surged down to 1000 low in 2015. So now, price in upward triangle and what it will do next? I see very high possibility to breakdown at see small retracement, before breakout from 2011 highs $1860 reistance zone. But there is a chances for bullish breakout now, so be careful. There is a quite good chances for price rise over next 5-10 years to $3000. Thanks for attention This is Artem Crypto
COMEX:GC2!
by ArShevelev
9
A comprehensive look at gold's volatile history during crisesIt is often said that gold tends to perform well during economic uncertainty and crisis. But is this really so? Let’s examine gold's volatile history before and during recessions in the past 50 years. The 1960s and 1970s were marked by many economic and geopolitical changes, including multiple crises of the British pound, the collapse of the London Gold Pool, the suspension of a gold standard, and the end of the Bretton Woods System. These events helped to reshape the global monetary system and the role of gold within it. Before U.S. President Richard Nixon's “temporary” suspension of gold’s convertibility to the U.S. dollar, gold was pegged at $35 per troy ounce and allowed to move within a certain band around this level. However, following the breakage of the peg between gold and the U.S. dollar, gold’s price soared past levels previously thought to be unattainable. Thanks to high inflation rates, the oil crisis, and the weak U.S. dollar, gold rose more than 2,300% during the 1970s, recording a 147% increase in 1979 alone. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The green background highlights gold’s performance one year before the recession began in January 1980. The yellow background indicates recession periods, as reported by the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the first 19 days of January 1980, gold rose another 54%, hitting an all-time high of $873 per troy ounce. In the next 66 days, gold plummeted 48% to $473. From lows on 27th March 1980, gold gained over 65%, stopping at $748.50 on 22nd September 1980. After that, gold declined until 21st June 1982, erasing nearly 60% of its value before staging a temporary rally. Nevertheless, it was only two years after the recession, on 25th February 1985, that gold finally bottomed out at $282.60. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily graph of XAUUSD. The red background indicates gold’s performance one year before the recession began in July 1990. The yellow background shows the recession period. After bottoming out in 1985, gold rallied nearly 80% by mid-December 1987. But the next few years saw gold underperform and plunge 31%. The decline halted on 14th June 1990, at $348.20. Following that, gold’s price started to appreciate, rising 22% in the next two months, hitting a high of $425 on 21st August 1990. Yet, it was only a brief rally again, and gold soon reversed the trend. Gold lost more than 23% in the next three years, dropping to a low of $325.8 per troy ounce on 10th March 1993. Another three years were carried in a similar volatile manner, with gold rising nearly by one-third and then reversing and declining to merely $252.10 on 22nd August 1999. Illustration 1.03 The image above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The red background illustrates gold’s performance one year before the start of the recession in March 2001, and the yellow background indicates a recession period. After soaring 35% from 1999 lows in less than two months, gold shocked precious metal investors when it reversed and began a slow decline that lasted until the start of the 2001 recession; in fact, gold nearly took out 1999 lows in early 2001. During the recession, gold had a run-up of 12% and continued to soar to new heights after its end. By the next recession hit in late 2007, gold doubled in price. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 displays the daily graph of XAUUSD. The green background shows gold’s performance one year before the start of the recession. The yellow background highlights the recession period. From its peak in March 2008, gold lost approximately 34% until its low of $681.50 on 24th October 2008. Yet, despite this massive decline, gold bottomed out before stocks and soared more than 180% until hitting a peak in September 2011. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
4
Options Blueprint Series Strangles vs. StraddlesIntroduction In the realm of options trading, the choice of strategy significantly impacts the trader's ability to navigate market uncertainties. Among the plethora of strategies, the Strangle holds a unique position, offering flexibility in unclear market conditions without the upfront costs associated with more conventional approaches like the Straddle. This article delves into the intricacies of the Strangle strategy, emphasizing its application in the volatile world of Gold Futures trading. For traders seeking a foundation in the Straddle strategy, refer to our earlier discussion in "Options Blueprint Series: Straddle Your Way Through The Unknown" - In-Depth Look at the Strangle Strategy The Strangle strategy involves purchasing a call option and a put option with the same expiration date but different strike prices. Typically, the call strike price is higher than the current market price, while the put strike price is lower. This approach is designed for situations where a significant price movement is anticipated, but the direction of the movement is uncertain. It's particularly effective in markets prone to sudden swings, making it a valuable strategy for Gold Futures traders who face volatile market conditions. Advantages of the Strangle strategy include its lower upfront cost compared to the Straddle strategy, as options are bought out-of-the-money (OTM). This aspect makes it a more accessible strategy for traders with budget constraints. The potential for unlimited profits, should the market make a strong move in either direction, further adds to its appeal. However, the risks include the total loss of the premium paid if the market does not move significantly and both options expire worthless. Therefore, timing and market analysis are critical when implementing a Strangle in the gold market. Example: Consider a scenario where Gold Futures are trading at $1,800 per ounce. Anticipating volatility, a trader might purchase a call option with a strike price of $1,820 and a put option with a strike price of $1,780. If gold prices swing widely enough in either direction, the strategy could yield substantial profits. Strangle vs. Straddle: Understanding the Key Differences The Strangle and Straddle strategies are both designed to capitalize on market volatility, yet they differ significantly in execution and ideal market conditions. While the Straddle strategy involves buying a call and put option at the same strike price, the Strangle strategy opts for different strike prices. This fundamental difference impacts their cost, risk, and potential return. Cost Implications: The Strangle strategy is generally less expensive than the Straddle due to the use of out-of-the-money options. This lower initial investment makes the Strangle appealing to traders with tighter budget constraints or those looking to manage risk more conservatively. Risk Exposure and Profit Potential: Although both strategies offer unlimited profit potential, the Strangle requires a more significant price move to reach profitability due to its out-of-the-money positions. Consequently, the risk of total premium loss is higher with Strangles if the anticipated volatility does not materialize to a sufficient degree. Market Conditions: Straddles are best suited for markets where significant price movement is expected but without clear directional bias. Strangles, given their lower cost, might be preferred in situations where substantial volatility is anticipated but with a slightly lower conviction level, allowing for larger market moves before profitability. In the context of Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures, traders might lean towards a Strangle strategy when expecting major market events or economic releases that could induce significant gold price fluctuations. The choice between a Strangle and a Straddle often comes down to the trader's market outlook, risk tolerance, and cost considerations. Application to Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures Implementing a Strangle in the Gold Futures market requires a keen understanding of underlying market conditions and volatility. Given the precious metal's sensitivity to global economic indicators, political instability, and changes in demand, traders can leverage the Strangle strategy to capitalize on expected price swings without committing to a directional bet. When applying a Strangle to Gold Futures, selecting the appropriate strike prices becomes crucial. The goal is to position the OTM options in a way that balances the potential for significant price movements with the cost of premiums paid. This balance is critical in scenarios like central bank announcements or inflation reports, where gold prices can experience sharp movements, offering the potential for Strangle strategies to flourish. Long Straddle Trade-Example Underlying Asset: Gold Futures or Micro Gold Futures (Symbol: GC1! or MGC1!) Strategy Components: Buy Put Option: Strike Price 2275 Buy Call Option: Strike Price 2050 Net Premium Paid: 11.5 points = $1,150 ($115 with Micros) Micro Contracts: Using MGC1! (Micro Gold Futures) reduces the exposure by 10 times Maximum Profit: Unlimited Maximum Loss: Net Premium paid Risk Management Effective risk management is paramount when employing options strategies like the Strangle, especially within the volatile realms of Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures trading. Traders should be acutely aware of the expiration dates and the time decay (theta) of options, which can erode the potential profitability of a Strangle strategy as the expiration date approaches without significant price movement in the underlying asset. To mitigate such risks, it's common to set clear criteria for adjusting or exiting the positions. This could involve rolling out the options to a further expiration date or closing the position to limit losses once certain thresholds are met. Additionally, the use of stop-loss orders or protective puts/calls as part of a broader trading plan can provide a safety net against unforeseen market reversals. Such techniques ensure that losses are capped at a predetermined level, allowing traders to preserve capital for future opportunities. Conclusion The Strangle and Straddle strategies each offer unique advantages for traders navigating the Gold Futures market's uncertainties. By understanding the distinct characteristics and application scenarios of each, traders can make informed decisions tailored to their market outlook and risk tolerance. While the Strangle strategy offers a cost-effective means to leverage expected volatility, it also necessitates a disciplined approach to risk management and an acute understanding of market dynamics.   When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
8
SPOT GOLD Zig Zag Long Average Up LONG or NOT ?SPOT GOLD XAUUSD is shown here on a 30 minute chart. This zig zag long trade is a bit more than a day in duration. It is meant for use in a forex trade with 10:1 leverage and then increased upon fluency after some amount of experience. Superimposed on the chart are support and resistance zones of the visible range and the RSI of the given chart time frame. Buy low Sell high is implemented. In forex the lot size for the first trade can be 0.02 and then subsequent buy and sell lot size of 0.01 the zig zagging allows for some compounding while underway and taking profit underway to assure a winning trade. The stop loss can be set and reset while underway by looking at at separate indicators. Beginners need less indicators not more too many and they get stuck into trading paralysis and are uncertain how to proceed and cannot act in a short time which is important trading intraday. This same strategy works on lower time frames such as 1-5 minutes .
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AwesomeAvani
Options Blueprint Series: Protective Puts for Market DefenseIntroduction to Protective Puts: Safeguarding Your Investments with Options In the ever-fluctuating world of finance, protective puts emerge as a strategy for investors aiming to shield their portfolios from unexpected downturns. This options blueprint series delves into the intricacies of protective puts, presenting them as a pivotal component in the arsenal of market defense mechanisms. Understanding Gold Futures Before we navigate the strategic utilization of protective puts, it's essential to grasp the fundamentals of Gold Futures traded on the COMEX exchange. Gold Futures are contracts to buy or sell a specific amount of gold at a predetermined price on a set future date. These contracts are standardized in terms of quality, quantity, and delivery time, making them a popular tool for risk management. Contract Specifications: Contract Size: One Gold Futures contract represents 100 troy ounces of gold. Point Value: Each point move in the gold price equates to a $100 change per contract. Margin Requirements: Initial and maintenance margin requirements vary (currently $8,300 per contract), providing leverage to traders but also increasing risk. Trading Hours: Gold Futures trading hours extend beyond the traditional market hours (currently 23 hours of trading per day), offering flexibility to traders across the globe. In addition to standard Gold Futures, investors and traders can also consider Micro Gold Futures as a more granular tool for their trading and hedging strategies. Micro Gold Futures represent 10 troy ounces of gold, offering a tenth of the size of a standard Gold Futures contract. This smaller contract size allows for greater precision in position sizing, making it easier for individual investors to tailor their investment strategies to their specific risk tolerance and market outlook. Micro Gold Futures follow the same trading hours and quality standards as their standard counterparts, providing the same level of liquidity and access but with added flexibility. These specifications underscore the liquidity and accessibility of both Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures, making them attractive instruments for a diverse range of trading strategies, including protective puts. The addition of Micro Gold Futures to your trading arsenal can offer more precise control over your investment exposure, enhancing your ability to implement protective measures like puts effectively. Implementing Protective Puts with Gold Futures The protective put strategy entails purchasing a put option for an asset you own, in this case, Gold Futures. This approach effectively sets a floor on the potential losses should gold prices plummet, while still allowing for unlimited gains if gold prices soar. This graph illustrates the payoff of a put strategy. Combining such outcome with a Long Gold Futures Positions would present a loss limitation below the put option's strike price, reflecting the insured nature of the investment against significant downturns. Conversely, the graph indicates the potential for unlimited gains, minus the cost of the put premium, as gold prices rise. Why Use Protective Puts? The allure of protective puts lies in their ability to provide a safety net for investors, particularly in the volatile realm of Gold Futures trading. This strategy is akin to purchasing insurance for your portfolio; it's about preparedness, not prediction. In an unpredictable market, protective puts are a testament to the adage, "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." Cost of Protection The cost of purchasing a put option, known as the premium, is the price paid for downside protection. While this cost can impact overall returns, the premium is often viewed as a reasonable fee for the insurance it provides against significant losses. Savvy investors consider this cost an investment in portfolio stability and risk management. How Protective Puts Work Understanding the mechanics of protective puts is crucial for effectively employing this strategy in the context of Gold Futures trading. This section demystifies the process, guiding investors on how to leverage protective puts for market defense. The Mechanics of Protective Puts Purchasing the Put Option: The first step involves buying a put option for the Gold Futures contracts you own. This put option grants you the right, but not the obligation, to sell your futures contracts at a specific strike price up to the option's expiration date. Choosing the Strike Price: The strike price should reflect the level of protection you desire. A strike price set below the current market price of the Gold Futures offers a balance between cost (premium) and the degree of protection. Determining the Premium: The cost of the put option, or premium, varies based on several factors, including the strike price, the duration until expiration, and the volatility of the gold market. This premium is the maximum risk the investor faces, as it represents the cost of protection. Scenario Outcomes: If Gold Prices Fall: Should the market price of Gold Futures drop below the strike price of the put option, the investor can exercise the option, selling the futures contracts at the protected strike price, thereby minimizing losses. If Gold Prices Rise: In the event that gold prices increase, the protective put option may expire worthless, but the investor benefits from the rise in the value of their Gold Futures contracts, less the cost of the premium. Implementing Protective Puts in Your Portfolio To effectively implement protective puts in your investment strategy, consider the following steps: Assess Your Risk Tolerance: Determine the level of downside protection you need based on your risk appetite and investment goals. Select the Appropriate Put Options: Choose put options with strike prices and expiration dates that align with your desired level of protection and market outlook. Monitor the Market: Stay informed about market conditions and adjust your protective put strategy as necessary to align with changing market dynamics and investment objectives. Scenario Analysis: Protective Puts in Action Let's explore how protective puts would work out in the current Gold Futures market scenario. In a bullish market, where Gold Futures prices are rising, the protective put option may expire worthless, but the investor benefits from the increase in the value of their Gold Futures contracts. The cost of the put option (the premium) is the only loss, considered an insurance expense against downside risk. In a bearish market, Gold Futures prices decline. If the price falls below the strike price of the put option, the investor can exercise the option to sell the futures at the strike price, thus minimizing losses. In a market where Gold Futures prices remain relatively stable, the protective put option may expire worthless. The investor retains ownership of the futures contracts, which have not significantly changed in value, losing only the premium paid for the put option. Considerations and Best Practices Cost-Benefit Analysis: Weigh the cost of the put option premiums against the potential benefits of downside protection. Protective puts are an investment in peace of mind and should be evaluated as part of a broader risk management strategy. Diversification: While protective puts offer specific risk mitigation for Gold Futures, consider diversification across different asset classes such as WTI Oil Futures, Yield Futures, etc. and strategies as a comprehensive approach to portfolio risk management. Conclusion Protective puts are a powerful tool for investors in Gold Futures, offering a methodical approach to safeguarding investments against adverse market movements. By thoughtfully implementing protective puts, investors can achieve a balanced portfolio, characterized by reduced risk and preserved potential for growth. As we move forward in our Options Blueprint Series, the importance of a disciplined approach to risk management and strategic planning cannot be overstated in the pursuit of investment success. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
XAUUSD Shorts! > 1970Despite some bullish movements at current levels that fall short of impressing, a cautious negative perspective is still in place. Such market dynamics frequently arise around important levels, leading to the speculative claim that a market top may be approaching soon. However, care is required, therefore extremely tight stop-loss orders are placed in relation to possible rewards. There might be a big move of about 450–1000 pip, and even though there are brief periods of positive activity, I believe the bias is still towards the negative. While there's still the possibility of the asset reaching new all-time highs (ATH), it's anticipated that a preliminary dip towards the 2010 region may occur. This could draw buy orders and provide new impetus, hence setting our first take-profit (TP1) at that level. Failure to find buyers at TP1 could lead to a further decline towards the next objective at 1970. Given the critical nature of the market's current state, ongoing analysis is imperative to adapt to any shifts in sentiment swiftly. Remember to conduct thorough due diligence (DD) and stay informed!
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by FroggyFX
Gold: Don’t Slacken! 💪To follow our primary scenario, Gold must not slacken on its way further up the chart! We still expect the turquoise wave B to reach a new all-time high, which requires more (corrective) rises. However, our alternative scenario could still prevail with a probability of 40%. In this case, the turquoise wave alt.B would have already been finished with the last prominent high, and Gold would, therefore, turn down earlier to dive below the support at $1935.
COMEX:GC1!
by MarketIntel
1
Market selloff poses a threat to the gold's performanceFinally, our expectations for gold to slide below $2,000 were fulfilled yesterday when the shiny metal sold off following the release of higher-than-expected inflation data in the United States. Given the hell breaking lose (yesterday) in the stock market, we remain concerned about gold’s performance in the short and medium term (while being bullish in the long term). It is very likely that the selloff in stocks will negatively affect gold’s price (if it continues), dragging it to $1,950 and potentially even lower (depending on the new developments). In line with our previous assessments, we patiently wait for a better price to manifest itself before taking advantage of the opportunity (ideally waiting for the dip below $1,900). Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and adjusted fan lines. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the third fan line. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily graph of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. Illustration 1.03 On the daily time frame, the MACD crossed into the bearish territory, bolstering the odds of gold continuing lower. Technical analysis Daily timeframe = Bearish Weekly timeframe = Neutral (turning slightly bearish) Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
4