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Goldfutures

Gold: Shaken, not stirred 🍸Like James Bond, gold seems to prefer shaking to stirring, as its recent movements suggest. In the course of wave B in turquoise, the metal has been bucketed about quite thoroughly and still has got some room left to expand the current ascent. As soon as wave B in turquoise is finished, though, gold should turn downwards and resume the overarching descent by developing wave (4) in yellow. However, there is a 35% chance that the precious metal could use the turquoise zone between TADAWUL:1830 and HKEX:1709 as an early exit, completing wave alt.2 in turquoise and shifting upwards from there.
COMEX:GC1!
by MarketIntel
Gold Shines as Nasdaq DeclinesGold glows as risk blows. Multiple bank failures and shotgun bank marriages are bringing back scary memories of 2008. Amid gloom, demand for gold blooms. Gold is a resilient store of wealth, offers durable portfolio diversification, exhibits lower volatility relative to equities, and serves as an inflation hedge. As described in our last paper , among the six ways of investing in gold, CME COMEX's Gold Futures ("Gold Futures") is most optimal among them. This paper is set in two parts. Part 1 delves into Gold Futures. Part 2 articulates a spread trade case study comprising of long gold and short Nasdaq yielding a reward to risk ratio >1.4x . COMPREHENDING GOLD FUTURES AND ITS PARTICIPANTS Gold Futures is the world’s most liquid gold derivatives. Fifty billion USD notional is traded daily on average. This leads to unrivalled bid-ask spreads enabling investors to gain capital efficient exposure to the price of gold. Launched in 1974 and trading over nearly 50 years, Gold Futures offer tight correlation to physical gold prices. Gold Futures trade 23 hours a day. Trading starts every Sunday 5pm Chicago Time (6am Monday in Singapore) to Friday 4pm Chicago time (5am Saturday in Singapore) providing near round-the-clock access. Gold Futures provide superior capital efficiency with a leverage of nearly 25x at current prices. Gold Futures come in two sizes. Each lot of the full contract provides exposure to 100 oz. of Gold requiring $8,000 in margins per lot. However, each lot of Micro Gold contract delivers 10 oz. of gold price exposure. Micro contracts which require only $800 per lot in margins provides affordable access to investors while helping hedgers fine-tune their risk management strategies with more precious exposure. When trading spreads, investors can further boost return through margin credits. Broadly speaking, investors, hedgers, and speculators form the active participants in the gold futures market. Hedgers use futures to manage their overall gold portfolio risk exposure. They use derivatives to lock in price for future transactions or to effectively hedge against price fluctuations. Speculators participate in Gold Futures with the intent of punting on gold price moves to generate profits. Investors use gold futures for generating return on capital over an extended period. They tend to focus on underlying fundamentals rather than short-term price movements. All three types of market participants are essential for effective financial market operation. Together they help build deep liquidity pools thereby facilitating robust price discovery. GOLD IS SET TO OUTSHINE NASDAQ The Nasdaq Index comprises of one hundred large and most actively traded U.S firms listed on the Nasdaq exchange. The index includes firms from a variety of industries except financials. These include tech, health care, retail, biotech, and industrial companies. The index is weighted by market capitalisation. During risk-off phases, investors rush to shelter in safe-havens. Gold prices rise. Also, when rates rise, companies whose values hinge on future distant cash flows suffer. As those cash flows get discounted at steeper rates diminishing its present value, share prices plunge. As risks and rates rise & remain high, Gold will outperform Nasdaq. Validating this view is the positioning of participants based on CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report dated March 13th. It shows that managed money and speculators are net long on Gold. COT report of the same date shows that leveraged funds are net short in the CME E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures. However, asset managers remain net long. The options market also vindicates the above views. Options on Gold Futures have a put/call ratio of 0.6x which signifies bullishness in gold. For every 10 bullish gold investors, there are only 6 bearish ones. However, for Nasdaq, options exhibit a put/call ratio of 2x meaning that for every 10 bullish Nasdaq investors, there are 20 bearish ones. Is a long position in Gold Futures a solid trade? Questionable, given that gold has rallied 10% since the start of banking crises. Current gold prices are overbought based on RSI. If crisis deepen, gold may continue its ascent. However, if market gains comfort from bailout assurances, gold prices will soften. Therefore, a directional long position in gold is beset with risk. However, as rates continue to rise or remain high, Nasdaq will struggle as growth firms get punished with discounted present value. Hence, this case study argues that a spread trade to long gold & short Nasdaq will deliver a compelling positive yield. Yes, growth stocks in Nasdaq have outperformed gold over the past twenty years. Yet, these stocks will struggle during times of crisis and elevated rates. The Gold-Nasdaq Ratio (“GNR”) had a golden crossover in January 2022 as equities came off its peak with rates rising. Since then, long-term (200-day) moving average has been a strong support for GNR. With GNR trading above this level, it provides investors a compelling spread trading opportunity with strong upside and limited downside. A long position in CME Micro Gold Futures expiring in June 2023 (MGCM3) provides exposure to 10 oz of Gold with a minimum margin requirement of $800 per lot. Each contract of MGCM3 represents a notional of $19,940. A short position in CME Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures expiring in June 2023 (MNQM3) provides exposure to $2 x Nasdaq-100 index with a minimum margin requirement of $1,680 per lot. Each contract of Micro Nasdaq-100 represents a notional of $25,750. Spread trade requires notional values of each leg to be identical. Therefore, a long position of five lots of MGCM3 is required to offset a short position of four contracts of MNQM3 . Margin offsets are available for this spread. The trade entry, target, stoploss, and reward to risk ratio are set out below: • Entry: 15.27% • Target: 16.90% • Stop: 14.20% • Profit at Target: $10,172 • Loss at Stop: $7,230 • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.4x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
A Profitable Gold Trading Strategy Gold has reached the TP line near 1986 today, and long positions around 1975 have gained a complete victory! Currently, the candlestick is oscillating near 1978, with a small support at 1974 below, followed by 1963. A simple breakthrough provides an opportunity for us to go long, but if the body falls below, the nature changes and the support becomes resistance, making it difficult for bulls to achieve higher targets. The area near 1974 is currently the key focus. As long as it doesn't break, the bulls remain in a strong position. If it quickly falls below, it also provides an opportunity for a rebound. In the case of a slow decline, it is difficult to quickly determine the direction. The short opportunity point is near 1994-2000, and the long opportunity point is near 1963-1966. Both positions provide highly profitable opportunities once reached. For the 1974-1986 range, as long as it doesn't break through unidirectionally, the trading strategy is still buying low and selling high. If you are trading gold, crude oil, bitcoin, and forex, please follow me and become my friend. I will provide you with the most suitable trading strategies from the most professional perspective!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by EagleEyeStrategy
Gold: short, target 1920 Gold fluctuated in the box today, and the volatility was significantly lower than last week and the beginning of this week. At present, it is the digestion stage after the sharp drop. If it can rise and break through the box, there is a high probability that it can touch the resistance near 1957-1961. However, judging from the current situation, the possibility of a breakthrough is unlikely, but the probability of falling below the 1933 support level of the box is relatively high. Therefore, in terms of trading strategy, I think shorting gold has a higher probability of profit. If you have sufficient funds, you can set the targets at 1928, 1923, and 1915 respectively.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by triumphing
How should we judge the market today?Dear partners, yesterday the first and second stages of long positions in gold were all closed with profit taking. For those holding long-term positions, please exercise caution in managing your capital and take profits as appropriate. Short-term trading should be the focus for individual investors. Only the profits in your pocket are truly yours. As for today's analysis of the gold trend, the important points to note will be updated in the post later. You can click the "rocket" icon in advance to follow us to avoid getting lost. Though the investment journey may be tough, we will walk this path together! Let's go!
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by StarVenus-
1
Gold demand reached an 11-year high in 2022On 13th January 2023, we reiterated our belief that the stock market was going through another bear market rally. Furthermore, we warned investors about the price deviating too far from its moving averages and the characteristic behavior of gold, which lies in it rising rapidly and then dropping quickly as well. Following the FOMC, the price of gold fell by more than $95, which translates to approximately 5% within only two trading sessions. Despite that, we remain bullish on gold in the long term. However, we remain worried as trend reversal in the stock market and more selling pressure can act as headwinds for gold, putting a temporary lid on the price in the short term. Due to that, we will pay close attention to Jerome Powell’s speech today and gold’s price action accompanying it. 2022 gold market in hindsight According to World Gold Council, gold demand (excluding OTC) reached an 11-year high in 2022, jumping by 18% to 4 741 tonnes. Investment demand grew by 10%, while demand for bullion increased by 2%. On the other hand, jewelry consumption dropped by 3%, and demand for gold in technology plummeted by 7% due to an economic slowdown. Interestingly, in 2022, central banks were a significant driver of higher gold prices, with a series of large purchases in Q3 and Q4. As for the global supply, it grew by 2% to 4 755 tonnes. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of XAUUSD. The yellow arrow points to the last rate hike by the Federal Reserve’s FOMC, which preceded the price drop. Technical analysis Daily = Bearish Weekly = Neutral/Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tradersweekly
9
XAUUSD Rising Wedge inside Channel UpFierce battle on the XAUUSD market with Gold trading on a Rising Wedge short-term inside a Channel Up long-term. The price is firmly supported by the 4hour MA50 for exactly 30 days and this indicates a strong uptrend. You can scalp the Rising Wedge's range and add to your intra day profit. If broken upwards, the minimum rally this Channel Up has achieved on a bullish leg is +2.75% and that puts the upside target at 1793. Equally on the downside, if the 4hour MA50 gets crossed, the minimum fall we can get is the bottom of the Channel Up, where the 4hour MA100 is waiting. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheCryptagon
2