Short gold first, then long gold after the pullbackRecently, I have been emphasizing that gold bulls still have room to support the rise of gold. Today, under the influence of the positive initial unemployment claims data, gold rose sharply in the short term and broke through multiple important resistance areas, reaching a maximum of around 2339.
According to the current structure, gold faces short-term resistance of 2338-2340, which is why gold does not break through the 2340 position in one fell swoop. Will gold still rise? Gold bulls are back in control and I think gold will continue to rise and at least try to hit the 2345-2350 area. However, before gold continues its rise, I think there may still be demand for gold to fall back in the short term.
Because gold has risen sharply in the short term, the increase has been too large, and there is no solid support during the period. Therefore, in order for gold to rise better, it is necessary to step back in the short term. Therefore, there is a demand for gold to pull back in the short term, so in the short-term trading rhythm, we can first try to short gold, and after gold falls back, we can then backhand and go long gold!
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Trading strategy today, gold cools downGold prices continued to fall in today's trading session, receiving little support from safe-haven demand as recent comments from US Federal Reserve (FED) officials showed the market was skeptical. Doubtful expectations of interest rate cuts.
The yellow metal saw some safe-haven demand this week as the conflict between Israel and Hamas worsened and ceasefire talks made little progress.
However, safe-haven purchases were offset by pressure from renewed concerns about high US interest rates as well as the dollar's recovery.
Prices for the yellow metal received little support from the dollar's recent decline, as the greenback rebounded on Tuesday after some Fed officials said the central bank was more likely to hold steady interest rate in 2024.
This view was voiced by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday and caused traders to rethink some expectations for interest rate cuts this year.
Expectations for a rate cut in September rose after weak payrolls data last week. But Kashkari and his colleagues say tough inflation remains the main point of contention for the Fed.
The prospect of higher long-term US interest rates is not a good sign for gold because it pushes up the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal.
Gold cools down, entry buy nowWorld gold prices stabilized with spot gold down 6.3 USD to 2,307.6 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,316.1 USD/ounce, down 6.2 USD compared to yesterday morning.
World yellow metal prices decreased slightly compared to yesterday morning as investors continued to wait for US data to find clues about the possibility of cutting interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The recovery of the USD also puts slight pressure on gold. The US Dollar Index rose 0.1%, making gold less attractive to foreign currency holders.
According to analyst Peter Fertig, what the market is currently concerned about is the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut this year. He said that if inflation does not really decrease, the Fed will still keep interest rates unchanged.
In his statement mid-week, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari gave a "hawkish" view on monetary policy, saying that the US Central Bank may keep interest rates high for a while. longer.
Investors are now looking forward to the results of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey due out on Friday and comments from multiple Fed officials this week. US consumer price index data will be published on May 15 (US time).
💡 GOLD: Analysis May 8Gold price adjusted slightly down in the past session, unable to break the previous peak around 2330. The situation has not yet had any notable changes, we can still keep the current comments, temporarily divided into two cases. Case:
First, if the price breaks below 2280, the price may follow the previously formed two-peak reversal pattern, towards the 2200 mark, at which point you can consider opening additional short positions;
Second, if the price breaks above 2330, the price is likely to continue to correct upward, existing short positions need to be closed, then attention should be paid to the 2360 level, buyers may return to the market if resistance is reached. This is broken.
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
💡 GOLD: Analysis May 7After being rejected at the 2280 support zone, the price recovered quite strongly in the past session, breaking the triangle pattern and testing the 2320 resistance level. However, this move has not significantly changed the situation. form where the higher peak has not yet been established. Still keeping the old comment, we temporarily divide it into two cases:
Firstly, if the price breaks below 2280, the price may follow the previously formed double top reversal pattern, towards the 2200 mark, at which point you can consider adding short positions outside of existing sell order;
Second, if the price breaks above the triangle pattern, which confirms the possibility of returning to the uptrend, we need to close existing short positions, paying attention to the 2360 level, buyers can return to the market. market if this resistance level is broken.
Trading strategy today, wait to buy goldWorld gold prices went down when some US Federal Reserve (FED) officials said that inflation in the US remained high and interest rates could remain the same for a longer period of time.
Responding to this information, the USD-Index increased 0.26% to 105.42 points. Accordingly, the USD increased in value compared to many other foreign currencies. Gold price today is in a disadvantageous position.
Meanwhile, analysts say that US bond interest rates remaining at high levels have become attractive to investors. Since then, many people have limited capital into the gold market. Today's world gold price is forced to weaken.
Gold continues trend down, selling now waiting for entry to buyWorld gold prices turned down with spot gold down 9.1 USD to 2,313.9 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,322.4 USD/ounce, down 8.8 USD compared to yesterday morning.
World gold decreased slightly as investors focused more on the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). According to CME's FedWatch tool, futures traders believe there is about a two-in-three chance that the US Central Bank will cut interest rates in September.
Although prices are pressured by the outlook for interest rates, StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell sees tailwinds for gold, especially regarding geopolitical risks and potential tensions. hidden in the banking system, strong enough to support this precious metal.
In mid-April, world gold prices touched a record high of $2,431.29 an ounce as they were boosted by strong demand from Chinese central banks and retail investors amid tensions. Geopolitics is on the rise.
Recently released data shows that the Central Bank of China recorded the 18th consecutive month of additions despite high gold prices.
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In terms of the geopolitical situation, an Israeli military spokesman said on May 6 that about 100,000 people were being evacuated from eastern Rafah. The Israeli military statement emphasized that the Israeli military will continue to attack Hamas in the Gaza Strip until all detained personnel are released. The geopolitical situation remains extremely unstable. No major data announcements today
Looking at the trend, gold broke through the high point of non-farm payrolls yesterday, reaching a maximum of around 2232. Today we are still mainly buying.
From a technical point of view, the daily line closed above the Bollinger lower track, and is temporarily suppressed below the Bollinger middle track of 2340. Therefore, it is too early to say that there will be a unilateral rise for the time being. We will wait for the daily middle track to break, and then look at the unilateral With great strength, look at 2350 above, or even higher. The same is true for the H4 cycle. Although this wave of rise is strong, Bollinger has not yet opened his mouth for the H4 cycle. Therefore, under the strong trend, long transactions still have to fall back more. The effective support below is near the moving average point of 2312. Therefore, the buying point is 2308 - Near 2010, aggressive traders can buy in 2012-2015
If it falls below 2303 today, I need to re-judge the trend of gold, so you need to set SL strictly and choose the appropriate trading point based on your own funds.
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GOLD-analyze
Hamas on Sunday reiterated its demand for an end to the war in exchange for the release of hostages, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu flatly rejected the demand. The prospect of a ceasefire in Gaza seems slim, and the future geopolitical situation remains the most unstable factor affecting financial markets. This week will be the least economic data release week of the year. Including Wednesday’s 10-year bond auction, Thursday’s Bank of England monetary policy decision and the U.S. Treasury’s 30-year bond auction, as well as Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence data, today we need to pay attention to the U.S. global supply chain in April Stress Index, Fed Barkin and Williams speak.
After the repeated fluctuations last week, gold is currently in a relatively weak state. Although it is weak, it is not a unilateral decline, so we still treat it as range fluctuations.
From a technical point of view, the K-line is suppressed below the 5D and 10D moving averages. Therefore, overall, it is currently weak. However, it should be noted that the support point 2280, which was concentrated last week, has not broken. The non-agricultural data is good for gold. , but it rose first and then fell, with the lowest at 2276. It also rebounded and did not form a unilateral trend. Therefore, for this week’s market, 2276-2280 is the key point for the strength and weakness of the trend.
2320 above is the resistance point of the moving average, and it is also the highest point of the rise after the release of non-agricultural data, so today we need to pay attention to whether 2320 can break through. If it breaks above, there is still room for growth, because we still treat it as range fluctuations in the short term, so we reach the resistance point. You can choose to sell, but use smaller lots
Today we are mainly buying, so I have given important support points below. You can wait for the support points to buy. Aggressive traders can buy near 2300. You need to strictly set SL. The market changes quickly, so pay attention in real time. It is very important to modify the strategy according to the market conditions
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Entry to sell Gold today, risk of big decreaseAnalysts said that although gold recorded its second consecutive week of decline after a 5-week recovery streak, in general, investor sentiment still remains optimistic about the precious metal.
According to analysts' opinions, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is clearly expressing its view that it will no longer be tough in monetary policy from now until the end of 2024. Specifically, in a recent press conference Recently, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the US Central Bank has no intention of raising interest rates.
In addition to monetary policy factors, experts also believe that the demand to buy gold from central banks is also one of the decisive factors pushing gold prices to a new record high.
World Gold Council (WGC) global research director Juan Carlos Artigas said that gold has proven to be the most diverse financial instrument, which is why central banks continue to hold gold.
There is a risk of decline, entry sell Gold todayWorld gold prices increased with spot gold increasing by 20.3 USD to 2,323 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,332.8 USD/ounce, up 24.2 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The gold market entered the new trading week with solid gains, boosted by the weakening of the USD. The US Dollar Index fell to its lowest level in about a month as a recently released report showed that the US job market is weakening, which has increased expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will interest rate cuts this year.
ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista said that the number of jobs created last month was much less than experts forecast, combined with slowing wage growth, which will cause the Fed to consider easing. monetary policy this year.
According to the FedWatch tool, after the report, the market increased the likelihood that the Fed will conduct the first interest rate cut in September to 71%. Evangelista said that investors will wait for statements from some Fed officials this week to get more clues about the monetary policy trajectory of the US Central Bank. This expert also said that tensions in the Middle East will be a factor supporting gold this week.
Gold has successfully built a bottom, start long goldToday officially starts a new week of trading journey. Today, gold rebounded again after testing near 2391, reaching a maximum near 2324. During the rebound, gold strongly broke through the 2310-2315 resistance area, and more importantly, it broke through the 2320 position, the NFP market high last Friday, and the short-term trend of gold turned from weak to strong.
In addition, gold has built a triple bottom structure in the short-term structure, and the support below is solid. There should be room for gold to continue to rise in the short-term. Therefore, we shorted gold near the 2323 position in the morning, and I have manually closed the position near the 2317 position to lock in profits in time. And it is recommended to look for opportunities to do long gold.
Therefore, in trading, we can rely on the 2315-2310 area as support and wait for opportunities to do long gold. The upper resistance is in the 2330-2335 area.I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Current Gold trading trend,sell first and wait for the buy priceLast week, the world gold price in the first session of the week traded at 2,335 USD/ounce. In the following sessions, gold prices could not maintain the mark above 2,340 USD and began to decline, reaching the lowest level of the week below 2,283 USD.
World gold price increased again above 2,325 USD/ounce after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced information on the roadmap to adjust interest rates. However, gold prices could not maintain their upward momentum and weakened at the end of the week.
Gold price on Kitco closed the trading week at 2,301 USD/ounce. June gold futures price closed at 2,309.70 USD/ounce, down about 1% compared to last Friday.
Kitco News's latest weekly gold survey shows that experts are less positive about gold's prospects in the short term. Most retail traders believe that gold prices will decrease or move sideways. According to a Wall Street survey, 40% believe that gold prices will continue to move sideways, 33% predict a decrease.
This week, the market is interested in notable economic information such as the US 10-year bond auction, preliminary consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan,...
Gold is likely to increase again, today's trading trendWorld gold prices tend to increase with spot gold increasing by 1.5 USD compared to last week's closing level to 2,302.7 USD/ounce.
Experts assess that the gold market has just had an interesting week when it received a lot of information that affects the direction of this precious metal. Gold started a series of declines and reached the lowest mark below 2,283 USD/ounce at noon on May 1 (US time) from 2,335 USD/ounce at the beginning of the week. However, this precious metal regained momentum when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced to keep interest rates unchanged and increased again above 2,325 USD/ounce. However, this precious metal was unable to maintain its recovery momentum and returned to test the level of 2,290 USD/ounce.
Although gold recorded its second consecutive week of decline after a 5-week recovery streak, experts still maintain optimism for this precious metal. Many opinions say that the US Central Bank has taken a not dovish stance on future monetary policy, but is certainly not "hawkish". At the press conference after the policy meeting in the middle of this week, Fed Chairman Powell made it clear that the Fed has no intention of raising interest rates.
“I think it is unlikely that interest rates will increase. I would say that is unlikely to happen,” Mr. Powell said.
Experts also say that the factors that pushed gold prices to record highs despite the Fed's stance still remain, including demand from central banks.
Gold has dropped dramatically,what is the opportunity to buy nowGold prices fell sharply in today's trading session, slipping from the $2,300/ounce level on concerns about higher, longer-term US interest rates ahead of this week's US Federal Reserve (FED) meeting. .
Weakening safe haven demand is also exerting pressure, especially as recent reports suggest ceasefire talks have resumed between Israel and Hamas. This makes gold even more vulnerable to interest rate risks.
But despite recent declines, gold prices still traded up more than 4% in April, extending the impressive gains seen in March.
The focus is now on the Fed meeting this weekend, where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates steady. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to take a more hawkish stance on interest rates, especially after a series of hot inflation indicators.
Signs of persistent inflation suggest traders have largely underestimated expectations for a near-term rate cut by the Fed. The central bank is currently only expected to cut interest rates in September or the fourth quarter, if at all this year.
Higher interest rates for longer periods bode poorly for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal. The strength of the dollar, thanks to the outlook for stable exchange rates, is also putting pressure on broader metals markets.
Other precious metals also decreased in price today, accordingly, platinum futures prices decreased 0.1% to 959.05 USD/ounce, while silver futures prices decreased 1.8% to 27,168 USD. /ounce.
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NFP! Short gold!The trend of gold today is particularly cautious. It has basically been oscillating in a narrow range around the 2300 position and is waiting for guidance from NFP data. As for how to view the NFP market, I have shared my detailed views in my previous article.
In general terms, I am still bearish on gold, and I tend to be short on gold in my trading. Judging from the recent trend, gold has determined that 2430 is the top. The short-term bullish structure has been partially digested during today's narrow range; on the other hand, U.S. inflation remains high. Although the Federal Reserve has not decided to raise interest rates, the market's expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are also decreasing.It also suppressed gold to a certain extent. So even if gold rebounds to a certain extent, I think gold's rebound space is limited.
Then we can boldly short gold in the NFP market. According to the current gold trend, I predict that gold will not exceed 2325 in the local rebound, so we mainly focus on the 2305-2310 area and the 2320-2325 area.If gold rebounds into this area, we could consider shorting gold. Once NFP is negative for gold, gold is likely to continue its correction to 2270, or even near 2260.
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GOLD-analyze
Today you need to pay attention to the impact of US non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate on gold in April.
Today's golden range is 2280-2344, and the small range is 2290-2330
You can trade within the range. Every Friday's trend is quite unexpected. You need to have stricter SL to prevent gold from causing you greater losses because the data breaks through the range.
Non-agricultural employment was as high as 303,000 last month, and this time it is expected to be 243,000. The probability of the data being higher than 240,000 is slim. To a large extent, it is still lower than 240,000, which means it is a bullish situation for gold, but we need to wait for the release of data to know the details
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The weak decline will not continue, Buy goldRecently, gold has been looking different every day. Yesterday, gold maintained an upward trend, but today it hit around 2328 and then fell back. The current lowest level has hit around 2295. The lack of continuation of gold's long and short positions has brought us a certain degree of difficulty in trading. Gold is currently trading near the 2298 position.
Although gold continues to fluctuate and fall today, I think gold will not undergo a deep correction today.Because before the release of NFP data, the trend of gold was relatively cautious, making it difficult to form a unilateral market in the short term.And as long as gold holds the 2295-2290 area, gold bulls will still have enough energy to support gold's rebound, so we should not be overly bearish on gold.
In addition, if gold really replicates the trend after April 23 as expected, then after gold ends the first stage of rebound, there will still be a second stage of rebound. Therefore, in the short term, I think there is a high probability of gold rebounding again in the short term. Therefore, in trading, we can consider looking for suitable opportunities in advance to go long gold before gold rebounds; after gold rebounds, we can then consider shorting gold, and the target of long gold is towards the 2310-2315 area.
I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !