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Gold Analysis October 10Fundamental Analysis Gold prices attracted some buyers on Thursday and now appear to have snapped a six-day losing streak to a near three-week low around the $2,605-2,604 region tested the previous day. However, the rally lacked bullish conviction and is likely to run out of steam amid growing bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) in November. This has helped the US Dollar (USD) maintain its recent strong gains to an eight-week high and will act as a drag on the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders may also prefer to stay on the sidelines and wait for the release of key US consumer inflation figures later in the North American session. The important US CPI report could influence expectations for the size of the Fed rate cut next month, which would boost demand for USD and provide some meaningful impetus to Gold prices. In addition, developments surrounding the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East will be looked at to capture short-term opportunities around the safe-haven precious metal. Technical Analysis The price range to watch for CPI trading strategies. The upper price range of 2626 and 2638 became one of the first major SELL zones in the Asian session yesterday. The 2638-2640 area is the critical zone of the EMA. The lower price range is focused on the US session around 2605 and the important breakout zone of 2594 will be notable in today's US session. This short-term downtrend is not over yet as the gold price has not been able to close the day above the 263x area. Wishing everyone a successful trading.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold price today: expected to continue the decline!Hi everyone! The global gold price continues its downward spiral today, extending its decline from the peak of $2,670 per ounce and at times dropping close to the $2,600 mark. This marks the sixth consecutive day of losses for the yellow metal, with the primary reason being the strong rally of the US dollar. The US Dollar Index has now hit its highest point in nearly two months, making gold more "expensive" for those trading in other currencies. Adding to the pressure, the market is also grappling with expectations around the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) potential interest rate cut in the upcoming November meeting. According to the latest Fed policy meeting minutes, some officials are leaning toward a more significant rate cut, while others favor a more conservative 25 basis point cut, arguing that a 50-point cut might be too risky.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ConanTradingFX
XAUUSD: Should I buy or sell!Hello everyone! Today, gold is showing a clear downtrend. Especially after breaking through the key support level at $2630, the downward trend has become even more pronounced. This decline is further confirmed as gold continues to trade below the EMA 34-89 moving averages and remains confined within a parallel descending channel (2625 - 2645), signaling that buying momentum in the market is gradually weakening. Additionally, investor sentiment has been dampened as expectations of the Fed maintaining its loose monetary policy have significantly diminished. This has given the USD more strength, further pressuring gold, a non-yielding asset. With these clear signs of weakness, according to Conan's analysis, it's highly likely that gold will continue to drop in the short term, potentially falling below the $2600 mark as long as the descending channel remains intact.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ConanTradingFX
Gold price analysis October 9Fundamental Analysis Gold prices fell sharply on Tuesday following a strong US jobs report and news reports that Hezbollah backed calls for a ceasefire in the conflict between it and Israel. As a result, hints of a possible de-escalation of the Middle East conflict opened the door for traders to take profits. XAU/USD traded at $2,615, down more than 1%. This prompted a sell-off in XAU/USD, which fell more than $35 to an intraday low of $2,604 before buyers took it to the current spot price. Additionally, rising US Treasury yields weighed on the non-yielding metal. The benchmark US 10-year yield remained unchanged above 4%, but has risen more than six basis points this week following last Friday's September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Against this backdrop, interest rate traders have adjusted their expectations for the next move by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Most Fed speakers have been gradual in their tone toward easing monetary policy. However, some, like St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, only expect one more cut by year-end after backing a 50 bps cut in September. Technical Analysis The Asian session range that we are paying attention to is around 2603 and 2627. The bottom support zone that the US session touched last night is also known as session support. The resistance zone is a breakout retest zone that the market respects. The upper range converges with the 34 EMA for a good trading plan in the Asian session. In the US session, the price range is wider with the price zone of interest around 2592 and the resistance of 2648 is considered a key price zone to hold the price from long declines.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Will GOLD continue to hold back the bulls?XAUUSD - 24h expiry Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at overbought extremes. A higher correction is expected. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Bespoke resistance is located at 2660. We look to Sell at 2662.2 (stop at 2678.2) Our profit targets will be 2622.2 and 2612.2 Resistance: 2654.0 / 2670.2 / 2685.6 Support: 2632.0 / 2624.7 / 2600.0 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OANDA
Gold Price Analysis July 10Fundamental Analysis Gold (XAU/USD) traded negative for the fourth consecutive day on Monday, despite no follow-through selling, remaining confined within a familiar range that has held for the past week or so amid mixed fundamental signals. Friday’s upbeat US jobs report dashed market expectations for more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve, helping the US Dollar (USD) rise to near seven-week highs and weighing on the non-yielding yellow metal. In addition, the underlying bullish tone across global equity markets further undermined safe-haven Gold. However, any meaningful corrective pullback remains elusive amid persistent geopolitical risks stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which tend to favor the precious metal. Traders may also want to wait for the FOMC meeting minutes to be released this Wednesday and the US consumer inflation data on Thursday. Technical analysis Gold has bounced strongly from the session support zone of 2640. At the moment, the trading range of gold is relatively wide and the NF has not been able to help gold form a new specific trend. In the h4 or h2 time frame, the trading range is clearly seen at 2635 and 2670. When this range is broken, the price will form a new trend. Besides, we pay attention to the areas that are prone to fake 2625 and 2685.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
XAUUSD: getting support!Gold prices continued to fall slightly this morning, and I couldn't help but notice the impact of the tension in the Middle East. Gold has always been considered a safe investment channel when world politics fluctuate, and since the beginning of 2024, the price has increased by more than 28%. This is not accidental, but largely due to concerns about escalating tensions in the region. The market is currently very sensitive to political fluctuations, and I see many investors still waiting for new moves from the Fed. According to David Morrison, an analyst at Trade Nation, the expectation that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates below 3% is a strong supporting factor for gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ConanTradingFX
XAUUSD: New Day Trading Strategy!Currently, XAUUSD is hovering around the 2662 USD mark, and it seems that the price has remained relatively stable over the past few days. On the other hand, the resistance level at 2670 is acting as a significant barrier to upward momentum. Interestingly, XAUUSD is forming a green candlestick right above the parallel wedge. If this candle closes above the wedge, we could fully expect a strong breakout, aiming for new profit targets. Additionally, the positive signals from the EMA 34 and 89 are reinforcing this view, indicating a clear upward trend. Investors might consider opening BUY positions on shorter timeframes, once the price confirms a breakout from the current range, provided that the support level around 2654 USD holds firm.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ConanTradingFX
XAUUSD todayHello everyone, Gold prices today continue to slide, dropping to $2,642, down 0.6% on the day. This decline is largely driven by the U.S. Dollar (USD) extending its strong recovery, after hitting its lowest point since July 2023, now reaching its highest level in three weeks. This comes amid fading expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) implementing further aggressive monetary easing. Moreover, gold closing below the $2,650 mark signals that the precious metal is entering a short-term bearish zone, with the next target expected to hit $2,630. What are your thoughts on the current gold price situation?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ConanTradingFX
XAUUSD today !Looking at the XAUUSD 2-hour chart you provided, we can see that the price is currently trading around $2,658 after a slight retracement from the resistance zone around $2,685. The chart shows that gold is still facing pressure from the resistance zone marked by the orange rectangle at the top, which has been tested several times but has not yet been decisively broken. Technical Analysis: Resistance Zone: The resistance zone near $2,685 seems to be acting as a strong barrier, with prices reacting negatively whenever they come close to it. If this resistance holds, we could expect a further pullback. Support Zone: The blue support area around $2,620 is clearly a critical zone. Any price movements down to this area may offer strong buying interest. A bounce from this level could signal a continuation of the upward trend. EMA Levels: The price is still above both the 34 EMA ($2,653) and 89 EMA ($2,641), indicating that the overall trend remains bullish, although short-term corrections are expected. RSI Divergence: On the RSI, we see multiple bearish divergence signals, which suggest that the upward momentum is weakening. This might indicate a potential retracement in the short term before a stronger move upwards. News Influence: The hot geopolitical tensions and economic data are fueling uncertainty, which often benefits gold as a safe-haven asset. Recent developments, such as uncertainty around global inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rate hikes, continue to support gold prices. Investors are still considering gold as a hedge against these factors, further strengthening the bullish outlook. In summary, we are in a phase where a potential retracement toward $2,620 may happen before we see another push toward breaking the $2,685 resistance level. If this break occurs, we could see gold targeting $2,700 and even higher toward the $2,750 psychological level. What do you think? Will the support hold, or do you see further downside potential before the next move up? Let's discuss!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ConanTradingFX
Gold price analysis on 2nd of MayFundamental Analysis According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), risk-off sentiment was the main reason why investors shifted their attention from better-than-expected US employment data to stable business activity in the manufacturing sector. News reports revealed that Iran attacked Israel. According to ABC sources, Iran will launch 240-250 missiles at Israel. Meanwhile, Israel revealed that its air force will continue to attack targets in Lebanon, while US National Security Advisor Sullivan said, "There will be serious consequences for this attack." Technical Analysis Gold broke the trendline and was pushed back to the uptrend, exiting the downtrend channel and facing an important resistance level of 2673. When the price breaks the 2673 zone, it will form a strong uptrend channel and head towards 2700. The pullback to 2643 is considered an opportunity to buy at the present time, let's wait for the price reaction and trade together. Trading signals BUY GOLD 2643-2641 Stoploss 2538 SELL GOLD 2672-2674 Stoploss 2677 SELL GOLD 2684-2686 Stoploss 2688 SELL GOLD 2699-2700 Stoploss 2704
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold Price Today: Popular Selling StrategyHello dear traders! Today, the gold market continued to decline sharply, reaching $2635, losing more than 100 pips after yesterday's trading session. This comes from a strong wave of profit-taking by short-term investors as the third quarter of 2024 ends. At the same time, the rebound of the USD has pushed gold prices into a more difficult position. On the technical chart, the downtrend remains firmly maintained as the parallel downtrend channel has not shown any signs of weakening. In particular, the EMA 34 and 89 have reversed, confirming that the price trend continues to face difficulties. Currently, any short-term recovery is a great opportunity to short. Traders can take this opportunity to continue targeting potential targets such as $2630 and further to $2615 - $2605.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ConanTradingFX
Gold Analysis October 1Fundamental Analysis Wall Street traded mixed as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered remarks at the 66th NABE Annual Meeting. Powell ruled out a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut at any of the central bank’s remaining policy meetings. Powell said there would be two more 25-bps cuts by 2024 if the economy performs as expected. The greenback, as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), rose 0.15% to 100.56, a drag on the non-yielding metal. A light economic calendar in the US saw the Chicago PMI improve for a third straight month but remain in recessionary territory. Geopolitical tensions remained high after Israel attacked Hezbollah headquarters in Lebanon, killing the group’s leader in the attack. While this warrants further gains for gold, bullion has failed to gain traction, analysts say. Meanwhile, China’s economy remains sluggish, which has prompted a government response. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is implementing additional economic stimulus measures, which has stimulated money flows into the country’s soaring stock market. Technical Analysis A short-term bearish channel is in place, as long as gold remains below the 2643 zone, the downtrend is likely to continue and extend to the 2600 round harbor. Watch for price reaction zones for BUY signals in the 2626-2615-2604 zone. In case of a trend break, the uptrend is limited by the immediate resistance zone 2656. Trading signals BUY GOLD zone 2626-2624 Stoploss 2625 BUY GOLD zone 2615-2613 Stoploss 2609 BUY GOLD zone 2604-2602 Stoploss 2599 SELL GOLD zone 2656-2658 Stoploss 2671 SELL GOLD zone 2643-2645 Stoploss 2649
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
XAUUSD: Buyers still have a chance.The price started the week with a spike near the dynamic resistance at $2670, but quickly retreated after the reaction, currently at $2653 and down 0.17% on the day. Although the price of gold has been slightly negatively affected by the market after lacking the momentum and fundamental news to break above the psychological resistance at $2700, this can be seen compared to the 2685 setup. However, the outlook for the metal remains bright at high prices, despite profit-taking from the market. The only concern from the market going forward is the NFP news, which, coupled with concerns about the situation in the Middle East and interest rate cuts and expectations of further adjustments in the future, will have a positive impact on the price of gold. Traders can consider buying when the price drops to the support level around $2625.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ConanTradingFX
Gold prices tend to decrease at the weekend!Hello everyone, Conan here. Today, gold prices are showing a downward trend. After failing to break through the resistance levels of 2670 - 2680, the price has started to decline and is currently trading around 2658 USD. This drop has been supported by some USD buying activity, which tends to weaken demand for this commodity. Additionally, the optimistic market sentiment, fueled by new stimulus measures from China, turned out to be another factor pushing money away from the safe-haven precious metal. As seen on the 1-hour chart, gold prices are still reacting around the EMA 34, and the descending wedge pattern remains unbroken, indicating that the downtrend is not over yet. Based on these factors, in my personal opinion, gold prices are likely to continue falling in the near future, possibly reaching a lower level around 2640 USD.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ConanTradingFX
GBPUSD analysis week 40Fundamental Analysis According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the market is currently pricing in a more than 75% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points in November. In addition, weaker US macroeconomic data on Tuesday, coupled with the prevailing risk-on environment, further undermined the safe-haven dollar and confirmed the positive near-term outlook for GBP/USD. Going forward, there is no market-relevant economic data due out of the UK on Wednesday. However, a scheduled speech by BoE MPC Member Megan Greene could influence GBP and provide some impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Later in the early North American session, US New Home Sales data could contribute to short-term trading opportunities. Technical Analysis GBPUSD’s trading range has remained largely unchanged over the past week. With little technical movement we still see the pair in a solid range of 1.323 and 2.349. In the short term we can see that the immediate support zone has been raised after the price reacted strongly at 1.331 and the resistance level forming a triple top around 1.342 has been established. The GBPUSD direction could continue the correction early next week and reach the yearly record around 1.350 in the near term. Trading signals SELL GBPUSD zone 1.349-1.351 Stoploss 1.353 BUY GBPUSD zone 1.323-1.321 Stoploss 1.319
by TVS-Trader
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