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Gold price analysis September 10Fundamental Analysis Gold prices struggled to capitalize on yesterday’s rebound from the $2,485 support zone and attracted some selling on Tuesday. However, the commodity held above the psychological $2,500 mark during the early part of the European session as traders appeared reluctant to place directional bets ahead of this week’s US inflation figures. The key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. The data will influence market expectations on the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut later this month and provide fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. Heading into the key data risk, the US Dollar (USD) edged closer to the monthly high reached last week amid bearish bets for a larger Fed rate cut in September. This, coupled with a solid performance in global equity markets, is seen undermining safe-haven Gold. Despite the decline, XAU/USD remains confined within a familiar range that has been maintained for about the past three weeks, indicating hesitation among traders about the short-term trajectory. This makes it more prudent to wait for a sharp sell-off to follow before positioning for the recent pullback from the vicinity of the all-time high tested after the release of the mixed US jobs report last Friday. Technical Analysis Gold is still approaching the key 2507 price zone. The European session is trying to push above this level to resume the uptrend. SELL signal in this area can be when the price pushes up in the middle of the European session and cannot break it, we SELL and hold until the US session. If the 2495 area is broken, we hold until the US session at the 2483 area. In case gold increases to 2507, we do not BUY and wait to SELL in the 2515-2517 area. The destination is the 2507-2505 area. SELL 2516 - 2518. Stoploss 2522 BUY 2485 - 2483. Stoploss 2479 BUY 2473 - 2471. Stoploss 2467
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GBPUSD week 37 analysis🌐Fundamental Analysis GBPUSD fell sharply after hitting a fresh weekly high above the 1.3200 round-figure resistance against the US Dollar (USD) during Friday's North American session. The GBP/USD pair fell as the US Dollar rebounded strongly following the US (US) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for August. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, recovered strongly to near 101.40 after falling to near 100.60. The short-term outlook for the British currency remains upbeat recently as investors expect the BoE's policy easing cycle to be shallower than that of other central banks. The main reason behind the strong speculation of a gradual BoE easing cycle is that the economy is performing better than previously expected and the fact that inflation in the services sector remains high. In the UK economic calendar next week, investors will focus on the Employment data for the quarter ending in July and the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for July. Both of these figures could be key to determining what the BoE will decide to do with interest rates when it meets later this month. 📊Technical Analysis The NFP pullback is approaching the 1.308 support zone. The uptrend is still strong with a possible retracement to the 1.0 Fibonacci around the 1.301 zone to bounce back to wave 5 and complete the bullish wave pattern. 1.334 would be a nice Fibonacci resistance zone where we can look at the reaction to execute the SELL signals. In the opposite direction, the Dow breakout of wave 1 formed a strong support level around 1.288. The EMA 34 is gradually decreasing in slope compared to the EMA 89, showing that the market structure is leaning towards the upside but not as strong as last week. Support: 1.301-1.299 Resistance: 1.322- 1.334 🕯Trading Signals BUY GBPUSD: 1.301-1.299 Stoploss 1.297 BUY GBPUSD: 1.288-1.286 Stoploss 1.284 SELL GBPUSD 1.334-1.336 Stoploss 1.338
by TVS-Trader
Gold Price Analysis September 6Fundamental Analysis Gold prices attracted some buyers for the third straight day on Friday and traded near weekly highs heading into the European session. However, the gains lacked bullish sentiment as investors opted to wait for the release of the key US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before placing any fresh bets. Meanwhile, rising bets for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September weighed on the US Dollar (USD) for the third straight day and provided some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, a mixed batch of US employment data released this week suggested the labour market is losing momentum and raised concerns about the health of the economy. This, coupled with persistent geopolitical tensions, dampened investor appetite for riskier assets and turned out to be another factor that acted as a driver of safe-haven Gold prices. However, it would be wise to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the two-day uptrend ahead of key US macro data risks. Technical Analysis Gold is looking to make an ATH in today’s US session. The re-approach to the 2523 zone in yesterday’s evening session and the liquid pullback to the 2508 zone and back to the top as the European session began have prompted investors to buy to push prices higher in the US session. The key price zone of 2526 on the breakout in today’s European session is definitely a new all-time high for Gold. Gold will at least reach 2526 or 2533 before a sharp decline. Now the US session begins and gold pushes down first, the US's upward force will be greater and it is possible to reach the sell zone of 254x. Resistance: 2526 - 2532 - 2542 - 2555 Support: 2493 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440 SELL price zone 2530 - 2532 stoploss 2536 BUY price zone 2499 - 2497 stoploss 2492 BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold Analysis September 5☘️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices edged up in Asian trade on Thursday. A US jobs report showed on Wednesday that employment fell to a three-and-a-half-year low in July, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further in September, which in turn acted as a boost for the non-yielding yellow metal. Moreover, concerns about the health of the US economy dampened investor appetite for riskier assets, further supporting the safe-haven precious metal. However, gold prices lacked strong buying interest as traders appeared reluctant to place strong bullish bets, preferring to wait for key details on the US monthly employment report - commonly known as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report - due on Friday. Meanwhile, the US economic agenda on Thursday - including the ADP report on private sector employment, the weekly jobless claims and the ISM services PMI - will be looked at for short-term opportunities. However, expectations of the imminent start of the Fed's policy easing cycle could continue to support Gold. ☘️Technical Analysis Gold is moving back in the sideways range of 2490-2505. After an old liquidity sweep to 2472. The Asian session's upside momentum is not strong enough to break the technical level of 2508. When the European session pushes up to 2508 without breaking through, we can set up a SELL signal at this area. The sell trend may extend further than there is still a way to move up to ATH. Today, when the US session enters, pay attention to the resistance zone of 2512-2514 for a SELL strategy. And the push to the low zone this week and next week could create momentum for the FOMC to push gold to a new ATH. Resistance: 2505 - 2509 - 2515 - 2524 - 2535 Support: 2491 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440 SELL price zone 2513 - 2515 stoploss 2518 BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456 BUY price zone 2480 - 2478 stoploss 2475Gold Analysis September 5
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD SELL Idea | $2480-2435 expected- Gold prices remained close to their recent all-time highs last week, driven by strong market sentiment and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This optimism follows comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who suggested a potential policy shift, fueling speculation that the Fed may reduce rates by 25 basis points, with some possibility of a 50-basis-point cut. This expectation has been a key factor in sustaining gold’s rally. - On Friday, gold prices experienced a slight decline due to profit-taking after the release of U.S. inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose by 0.2% in July, met expectations and confirmed that inflation is no longer the Fed's main concern. Instead, the Fed is focusing on unemployment and economic growth, with revised Q2 GDP growth of 3% and declining jobless claims reducing fears of a recession. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, have also increased demand for gold as a safe haven. Central banks have continued to purchase gold, further supporting prices, with some analysts predicting that gold could approach $3,000 by the end of the year. - Looking ahead, the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report will be crucial in determining the Fed's next move. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could increase the likelihood of a larger rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher. However, traders should be cautious of potential risks, such as weak physical demand in major Asian markets like China and the fact that many investors are already heavily positioned in gold, which could limit further gains.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDFXCC
GOLD analysis week 36🌐Fundamental Analysis: Gold prices fell about 1% as the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose sharply after US inflation data matched expectations over the weekend. However, given the Federal Reserve's September rate cut and geopolitical tensions remain a risk, gold still has plenty of potential support on a fundamental level. Gold prices closed slightly lower this week but still held the $2,500/ounce mark. Next week, investors will receive US ISM data and non-farm payrolls reports, which are expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. Next week's NFP data will be the main focus, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members have also focused heavily on the upcoming employment data during the Jackson Hole conference. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Signs of steady buying from central banks in emerging markets also support prices. 📊Technical analysis: Looking at the D candle, selling pressure has started to appear on gold. The buying pressure at the end of the day is insignificant and there are ready to be more sell-offs next week. Returning to the familiar H4 time frame, the breakout area of ​​2512 becomes the immediate resistance zone to push gold prices deeper. The declines may extend to the 2485 area and even the 2470 area next week. The downtrend is the path of least resistance for gold. After rejecting the resistance level of 2525 many times, gold may easily break through this hook once again and move straight to the important resistance zones of 2530-2540-2550. Resistance: 2412 - 2420 - 2430 - 2440 - 2450 Support: 2494 - 2485 - 2470 🕯Trading Signal: BUY GOLD 2485-2483 Stoploss 2480 BUY GOLD 2472-2470 Stoploss 2467 SELL GOLD 2513-2515 Stoploss 2518 SELL GOLD 2530-2532 Stoploss 2535
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GBPUSD analysis week 36 🌐Fundamental Analysis The British Pound (GBP) extended its two-day losing streak and hit a fresh intraday low below 1.3150 against the US Dollar (USD) in the North American session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair failed to gain as the US Dollar strengthened following the release of weaker-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for July. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, surged above 101.50. The impact of PCE inflation data is traditionally high as it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure for making interest rate decisions. This time, the impact of core inflation data is expected to remain limited to market speculation on the Fed’s rate cut path this year. Currently, financial market participants expect that the Fed will almost certainly start cutting interest rates in September. However, signs of rigidity in price pressures from PCE inflation data have reduced bets supporting the Fed to start a strong policy easing cycle. 📊Technical analysis As analyzed last week, GBPUSD has retreated when it reached a strong resistance zone. The retreat may continue next week to attract buyers to push the price up further. In fact, GBPUSD is in a strong uptrend. On the D1 time frame, the EMA 34 is sloping up sharply compared to the EMA 89, indicating that the market structure is leaning towards the upside, the retreat is only pushing the price up in the near future. The nearest trading range is around 1,300-1,327. These are two strong resistance and support zones and also the price range where investors can enter orders. With a perfect retracement it is possible to push the price to the old peak around 1.342 and the strongest retracement is supported at 1.284. Resistance: 1.327-1.342 Support: 1.300-1.284 🕯Trading Signals SELL GBPUSD zone 1.327-1.329 Stoploss 1.331 BUY GBPUSD zone 1.300-1.298 Stoploss 1.296
by TVS-Trader
Asian session volatility August 30Gold prices lost momentum amid a stronger US dollar on Friday. Upbeat US growth reports and initial jobless claims pushed back expectations of a deeper interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, weighing on non-yielding bullion. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine could boost safe-haven demand, benefiting the yellow metal. Gold could be pushed higher as the European session begins. Look for buy zones around 09-07 or 03-01. Further trading strategies will be updated soon.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold Price Analysis August 26☘️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices traded above the 2520 resistance level after the European session. The gains came amid growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start lowering borrowing costs in September. Lower interest rates are generally positive for Gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and economic uncertainty are likely to boost safe-haven demand, benefiting Gold prices. On the other hand, sluggish demand in the Chinese economy could weaken the yellow metal as China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of gold. Later on Monday, US Durable Goods Orders for July are due. The highlight of the week will be the US Preliminary Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, which will be released on Thursday and Friday. ☘️Technical Analysis: With the current price increase, the technical structure has tilted to the upside. We will wait for the H1 candle to close above the 2520 port to confirm that gold will continue to move straight to the resistance zone of 2530. And in the US trading session, gold can completely create a new ATH. Retracement hooks are relatively unlikely at the moment. When the distance to 2509, the Asian session bottom this morning encountered quite a few barriers. The important technical support hook today will be 2495 to ensure the current market structure. Resistance: 2525 - 2535 - 2547 - 2558 - 2568 - 2590 Support: 2509 - 2500 - 2494 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2442 SELL zone 2528 - 2530 stoploss 2534 BUY zone 2496 - 2494 stoploss 2490
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
EURUSD analysis week 35🌐Fundamental Analysis EURUSD surged in the North American session after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave the green light to interest rate cuts, as he believes inflation is approaching the central bank's 2% target. The pair traded near 1.120, a recent month high. The week ahead opens with a relatively quiet data schedule, however key inflation data points from both the EU and the US remain in the shadows. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures will act as the precursor event on Thursday, but EURUSD traders will focus on a double headline on inflation scheduled for Friday next week. The EU Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) preliminary inflation figures for August are due out next Friday and are widely expected to show that the core EU inflation figures continue to cool towards the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% annual target. On the US side, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be released on Friday. 📊Technical Analysis: EURUSD has formed a strong uptrend that is the highest in the past month following the latest Fed data. On the D1 timeframe, the EMA 34 is sloping up strongly against the EMA 89, suggesting that the market structure is tilted to the upside with the nearest trading range around 1.127-1.110. With such a strong rally, the upside could extend next week to the resistance at 1.14. Any pullback at the moment is seen as a good time to buy rather than a trend reversal. The best BUY level is around 1.100 strong resistance zone that EURUSD broke through and now forms a strong support zone when the pair price returns. Resistance: 1.127-1.146 Support: 1.110-1.100 🕯Trading signals BUY EURUSD zone 1.127-1.129 Stoploss 1.131 SELL EURUSD zone 1.100-1.098 Stoploss 1.096
by TVS-Trader
XAU/USD 26-30 August 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure: Bullish. Internal Structure: Bullish. Price has continued to print all time highs with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation. The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. I have previously mentioned that price could print further highs which would bring CHOCH positioning closer to current price and this is what price printed again, However, CHoCH positioning remains the same. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback. First indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation is for price to print a bearish CHoCH. Bearish CHoCH positioning, which is denoted with a blue dotted line, and 50% internal EQ are almost identical. We currently do not have any indication of price pulling back. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback. Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK