Tokyo Session Playbook – Monday, March 4, 2025📅 Session Context:
✅ Friday’s Closing Impact – End-of-week profit-taking & Smart Money positioning
✅ Monday’s Open Setup – Liquidity resets & possible stop hunts
✅ End of Month → New Month Flows – Portfolio rebalancing impact
✅ Trump’s Tariff Policies & Global Risk Sentiment – Risk-on/risk-off flows into gold
✅ Upcoming Key Economic Data – Asian market sentiment will react to global factors
Considerations for Tokyo Session
🔹 Fundamental Impact – Economic News & Trump Tariffs
Trump’s Tariff Policies → More global uncertainty = Bullish for Gold
Chinese Market Reaction → Strong demand from China usually supports Gold
US Dollar Strength → If USD weakens, Gold will push higher
🔹 VSA & Market Maker Logic
If VSA shows Weak Buying → Expect early liquidity sweep & reversal.
If VSA shows Strong Buying → Institutions are preparing for London breakout.
Market Makers will likely trap retail traders before big moves.
Asia will set the liquidity traps for London & NYC expansion.
Tokyo will likely liquidate weak hands before a decisive move during London/NYC.
🔷 Key Technical Levels
✅ POC (Point of Control) → $2,857.44
✅ VAH (Value Area High) → $2,868.00
✅ VAL (Value Area Low) → $2,849.00
✅ VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) → $2,853.14
📌 Interpretation:
Above VWAP ($2,853) → Tokyo session will try to push price toward $2,868-$2,875 (liquidity grab zone).
Below VWAP ($2,853) → Expect a dip into $2,849-$2,832 to clear stop losses before a reversal.
🔷 How Tokyo Will Play the Game
Scenario 1: Bullish Play (Strong Gold Demand in Asia)
✅ Trigger: Smart Money absorbs liquidity at $2,849-$2,853 and price holds above VWAP.
✅ Institutional Confirmation:
Positive Delta & Increasing Bid Volume
Absorption at liquidity zones (VAL & VWAP)
✅ Execution Plan:
BUY: $2,849 - $2,853
STOP LOSS: Below $2,832
TARGETS:
TP1: $2,868 (VAH)
TP2: $2,875 (Liquidity Pool)
TP3: $2,885 (Breakout Target)
🎯 Why This Works?
Asia accumulates long positions before sending price higher in London.
Gold demand in Asia is strong due to risk-hedging.
Expect a slow grind up before liquidity spikes in London.
Scenario 2: Bearish Play (Liquidity Grab Before Reversal)
✅ Trigger: Price spikes to $2,868-$2,875 but rejects with weak buying pressure.
✅ Institutional Confirmation:
Negative Delta & Sell Imbalances Above VAH
Large Orders Absorbing Buys (Liquidity Trap)
✅ Execution Plan:
SELL: $2,868 - $2,875 (Fakeout Zone)
STOP LOSS: Above $2,885
TARGETS:
TP1: $2,853 (VWAP)
TP2: $2,849 (VAL)
TP3: $2,832 (Deep Reversal Zone)
🎯 Why This Works?
Institutions fake the bullish move, trap retail longs, then dump the price.
Gold has a history of early session stop-hunts before reversing.
High probability of selling pressure before London takes control.
Tokyo Session Execution Plan
🔥 Primary Play: BUY THE DIP (Bullish Accumulation Plan)
✅ ENTRY: $2,849 - $2,853 (If price holds above VWAP)
✅ STOP LOSS: Below $2,832
✅ TAKE PROFITS:
TP1: $2,868
TP2: $2,875
TP3: $2,885
🔥 Alternate Play: SHORT THE FAKEOUT (Bearish Rejection Plan)
✅ ENTRY: $2,868 - $2,875 (If price rejects with weak delta)
✅ STOP LOSS: Above $2,885
✅ TAKE PROFITS:
TP1: $2,853
TP2: $2,849
TP3: $2,832
