GOLD METEO Hello, Investors and Trader I hope you are doing well, I would like to share with you my analysis on Gold,
Goldintraday
Bullish and Bearish Gold Monthly Last week we had very good bullish move, I am bullish till 21st and 22nd March 2023. Price reach and close in side light blue box we may have bearish, get very good and stronger confirmation. We will go bearish.
In case of Bullish in the same blue box, get retesting with very good and stronger confirmation. We will go Bullish
As we all know AU has tendency to make double triple top/bottom which is very much possible case.
Gold continues to be bullish, falling back means going longThe bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) triggered the U.S. banking crisis, and the negative news from Credit Suisse heightened concerns and risk aversion soared, which triggered a new round of gains in safe-haven assets such as gold.At present, the market is closely waiting for new clues about the banking crisis.
The inflation data released recently showed that it was in line with expectations. It has been half a year since it fell from the highest 9.1% to 6%. The gap from the 2% target is still very large, showing strong stickiness.If the Fed continues to raise interest rates, the economy may have problems. If the SVB bankruptcy does not spread to the entire banking industry, the Fed has reason to continue to raise interest rates.There is still nearly a week between now and the Fed's announcement of the interest rate decision next week, which means that whether the financial pressure eases in the future will directly affect the outcome of the Fed's interest rate hike.
After a short-term decline in the European market yesterday, gold quickly recovered, and the US market directly broke through the previous high, reaching the highest position of 1937.Our multi-orders near 1917 in the short-term operation yesterday very accurately captured this wave of strong market conditions. The resistance of 1950 USD is focused on the top, and the support of 1900 USD is focused on the bottom.On the daily chart, various technical indicators are clearly showing an upward trend.On the technical side, the Dayang upside on Monday matched the Dayang breakthrough at the close of last week. In fact, the long trend was established. Although there was a small yin at the top in the market on Tuesday, it was more of a technical adjustment here. Then in the conversion of the time node on Wednesday, the market re-pulled higher out of the sun, re-establishing the long trend and verifying that Tuesday belonged to the market adjustment.
For the future market, we can continue to maintain a long trend response. The target of the daily price level can pay attention to the arrival situation near 1960 in the early stage to make an expectation. In the short term, after yesterday's US market and the continuation of the early intraday trading, it basically came to the bottleneck of stepping back. Intervention can pay attention to 1910 and below, support can pay attention to the 1900 mark, and focus more on the recovery of the upper space.
Gold fell below 1900, and the decline is about to begin?At present, gold prices are slightly lower. Because the February CPI data released overnight in the United States showed that the annual core inflation rate still far exceeded the Fed's 2% target, the dollar index stopped falling and rebounded, suppressing the rise in gold prices.It is expected that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates next week and in May, with the benchmark interest rate increasing by 25 basis points each, because the report released overnight showed that the annual core inflation rate in the United States in February was still as high as 5.5%, and concerns about the long-standing banking crisis have eased.Therefore, gold's short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and the short-term short-term recovery indicates that gold may at least partially take back the gains made in the context of systemic risk panic.
The rebound in U.S. bank stocks has cooled the market's risk aversion to a certain extent. From the perspective of gold's trend, gold has also recovered in a short period of time, but the main structure is still high and volatile. On March 14th, the daily line finally closed at a high level and a small negative line. Gold is technically already seriously overbought, but considering that the current market rise is mainly caused by the buying of risk aversion, and the short-term market risk aversion does not cool down, then gold may still continue to be consumed at a high level, and it is not easy to make significant adjustments.This kind of high volatility may consume more time, gather fundamentals, and may even extend the high volatility until the Fed's interest rate decision next week.
In the short term, it is currently hindered by the actual suppression of the 1910 mark. If the upper space needs to be further opened, then it needs to actually stabilize above the 1910 mark to have further opportunities. As for the lower defensive thinking, as long as you hold on to the rise of 1870 this week, the bulls will succeed.
In the short term, the trend of gold will still be dominated by market sentiment, and it may not be so concerned about the demand for technical trends.At present, it is difficult to predict and control the fundamentals. At present, the focus of the market is on how to deal with the bankruptcy of US banks, and this issue ultimately comes down to how to adjust the Fed's interest rate hike policy.In addition, the United States will announce retail sales and producer price indexes later in the day.Before the FOMC meeting on March 22, it will become important to observe whether U.S. retail sales data indicate any consumer downturn.
The gold bulls are weak, and the bears are about to strike?The data released that the annual CPI rate in the United States in February was in line with the expected value of 6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the annual core CPI rate in the United States in February was in line with the expected value of 5.50%, lower than the previous value of 5.60%.
The inflation data is in line with expectations, indicating that the market generally expects the Fed to continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March and will not increase interest rates again.But overall, inflation has not fallen sharply, and this is not a strong data.Obviously, what the Fed has to consider now is financial stability.
At present, for the gold market, the Fed's policy outlook is divided in the market. On the one hand, the banking crisis may cause the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate increases; on the other hand, the Fed is facing a severe inflation state, and it is still far from the 2% target. Raising interest rates is still the best way to reduce inflation.From the long-term perspective, the current banking crisis is only short-lived, and it is still difficult for the crisis to spread. Raising interest rates is still the best choice for the market to suppress inflation.
In terms of gold's trend, judging from the daily line, gold prices have been on the rise since March 8, and there has been no decent adjustment; in the past two days, gold has risen from a strong position on the 1870 line to the 1900 line and hit the 1914 line. At present, the US index has stopped the decline, and the gold rally has been blocked.To a certain extent, there is a gradual peaking rhythm, and I am optimistic that there will be a wave of effective adjustments in the near future. At present, the short-term support below 1896-1900 is the defensive line of the bulls, and once it breaks down, it will open up the downward space again.
Why do you frequently lose money when you invest in foreign exchange?
One: Counter-market operation: If you don't respect and fear the market, you will be overwhelmed by the market if you operate completely against the trend.
Second: Do not set a stop loss: Stop loss is a necessary means to control risk, and not setting a stop loss is tantamount to throwing away the money directly.
Third: Frequent operations: There is no trading plan, casual trading and frequent multiple transactions greatly increase the probability of loss.
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Can the price of gold continue to rise?After the California banking regulator closed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the price of gold rose 2% on March 10.On March 11, the state regulator also closed Signature Bank, which is headquartered in New York.Due to market concerns about the stability of the banking system, the dollar fell sharply, which pushed gold prices higher in the short term.
In addition, with the outbreak of a crisis in the U.S. banking industry, expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike have cooled, and Goldman Sachs even expects that the Fed will not raise interest rates in March, which will limit the rise of the dollar and boost gold.
Although the Silicon Valley Bank incident, the U.S. Treasury Department has taken steps to ensure the safety of all depositors' funds, helping to ease the panic in the market.However, in essence, the U.S. Treasury Department's actions have not broken the rigid redemption, which is not conducive to market clearance, or will bury more hidden dangers. Therefore, in the short term, the crisis of trust and run crisis caused by this banking crisis may continue to ferment.The current market's lack of confidence in the US dollar and the cooling of expectations of the Fed's aggressive pace of interest rate increases will also support gold to continue to rise.
At the same time, whether gold prices can continue to maintain an upward state still needs to be observed in the data, especially the specific situation of the US CPI data for February.
From the technical point of view, the gold price forms a W-bottom pattern structure on the 4-hour level chart, which helps to support the upward movement of the gold price. Although the current weakening of the upward momentum has led to a decline in the gold price, as long as it does not fall below the 1870 line, gold still has the opportunity to touch the 1900 or even the 1920 line upwards.
Three support levels and three types of rhythms for gold.
On the night of the February non-farm payroll report, gold plummeted with a large volume decline, but on the night of the March non-farm payroll report, it saw the opposite, with gold continuing to rise significantly with a large volume increase.
Entering March, gold maintained its overall sweeping upward momentum. However, last week, due to news on Tuesday, the price dropped sharply, experiencing an unexpected dip. After the dip, it bounced back, relying on the 1810 level to reclaim 1830, and then continued to push up above 1830, breaking through the high point of 1858 and rising further. Today, the price continued to rise and found its way to the 1894 area. With such a market situation, the focus is on defending the high and low points and its sustainability. This also verifies the range of 1890-1900 that I mentioned last week, which only came faster than expected, resulting in a gap around 1870 that needs our attention.
From the trend perspective, gold relied on the four-hour lifeline to find its position on the four-hour trend line, as well as the point of the upward gap, which is also a back-tested support area at the 1872 level.
Therefore, for gold in the future, we should pay attention to three support areas and look at three different market rhythms.
Firstly, there is a strong upward trend with the four-hour purple trend line serving as a support at the early low point of 1872. The price holds onto the support and continues to climb, searching for resistance levels at 1890 and 1894, and seeking to break through the high point to find the next resistance range of 1907-1908.
Secondly, there is a sweeping upward trend with the top and bottom conversion position at the 1858-1856 range, which is also the support point area determined by the last pullback in the closing moments of Friday. It is used as a basis to observe a relatively strong sweeping upward trend.
Thirdly, there is an extremely sweeping and volatile upward trend with multiple supports stacked at the 1836-1833 range. This is quite awkward as the final result is still a rise, but it requires a dip before it can stand up. This is also the starting point of the rise after the non-farm data was announced, serving as the current long defense area.
By clearly understanding the meaning of the corresponding positions, in the subsequent market situation, holding onto the support and maintaining the corresponding rhythm is essential.
Currently, the price is primarily focusing on the first scenario, using the low point and the four-hour purple trend line at 1872 as support, with the idea of continuing to climb. Based on this strategy, a long position at 1874-1872 is recommended. The price has just pulled back to the entry point, and the long position should be held while observing the resistance level above.
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Go long on gold, target 1880.
The released nonfarm data was bearish for gold, but the figure significantly decreased compared to the previous value, and the unemployment rate increased, which is bullish for gold. Therefore, gold surged above 1860 after the data was released, breaking the previous high and opening up more room for upward movement. Based on the current momentum, there is a high probability of reaching around 1880-1900.
So, my trading strategy is to buy gold boldly as long as it doesn't fall below the support range of 1856-1845, with a target around 1875-1880.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Non-agricultural data will be released soon, long or short?
The non-farm payroll data in January was unexpectedly weak, largely due to statistical adjustments and labor hoarding causing abnormal data. The addition of over 500,000 jobs to the non-farm sector is unsustainable, and inflation is likely to continue to trend downward in the first half of this year due to base effects. Therefore, I personally believe that the Federal Reserve does not need to be excessively hawkish during a period of sustained inflation decline, and market sentiment will not remain pessimistic indefinitely. The comments from Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday were also ambiguous, indicating that acceleration in interest rate hikes would only occur when necessary, and not definitively. Therefore, whether or not it is necessary will depend entirely on how the data performs. Based on yesterday's initial jobless claims data, I believe the probability of non-farm payrolls being bullish for gold is relatively high.
Furthermore, this week's sell-off did not continue, and after two consecutive days of low-level volatility, prices rose sharply during the US session, reaching a high of around 1835. This has changed the weak trend, and from a technical perspective, there has been no break below new lows. Instead, bearish momentum has stalled after falling to 1809, and gold has rebounded again. The expected bearish momentum for gold breaking new lows no longer exists, and from a technical standpoint, yesterday's rebound has stopped the downward trend. Gold is likely to continue to rise, particularly given the weak performance of US employment data, which has boosted the long-term expectations for gold. It is not ruled out that gold will continue to oscillate upwards with 1809 as the bottom, fluctuating in a broad range between 1809 and 1855. Based on the weekly chart, signals suggest that the current upward trend will continue next week.
If both the news and technical aspects indicate a bullish outlook for gold, then the rise in gold prices is inevitable, and prices are highly likely to test the previous highs. Conversely, if the bearish factors do not break through the 1809 level, then the rebound in gold prices will not be small either.
Therefore, my short-term trading strategy will focus on going long. As long as the watershed of 1830 is not broken, I will gradually go long at this line, with a target of 1845-1855.
I will provide specific trading strategies during market hours and recommend subscribing. The recent market volatility has been significant, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Control risks while pursuing gains.
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Continue to go long on gold 1809
Gold has shown a double bottom near the 1809 level, suggesting a long position.
Continue to go long, no need to say anything else, just enter the market directly.
The downside support level is near 1802, so we will be long today with no other strategies. Get ready for a strong rally, as I am already prepared.
Trading strategy: Go long on gold at 1809, stop loss at 1802, target at 1845.
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XAUUSD 100% Accurate analysis!Good evening gold gang!! i hope you're well.
Gold saw strong moves to the upside giving us not one but 2 buy opportunities both forecast this morning. I bagged 80 pips today which will top off my week just nicely as there will be no trades tomorrow due to NFP.
I will of course still be active and will be posting my analysis in the morning.
The first buy was a higher risk play due to the size of the range between the 2 zones .. i entered with a low risk. I jumped out and the zone and waited for a strong break for full risk buys up to my major level .. which it hit perfectly!! and with a nice rejection.
I hope you guys took value from my analysis and were able to enter long with me! if so, you owe me a beer!
See you in the morning for london/ny outlook. No asia outlook this evening as i believe volume will be diminished due to the impending news.
TommyXAU
Can gold still rally?
In trading, we may have short-term profit goals, but long-term goals are built on the foundation of short-term profits. Without short-term profits, long-term goals are meaningless. Therefore, we need to balance short-term and long-term goals to achieve steady and sustained profitability.
After Powell's speech, gold continued its downward trend and hit a one-week low around $1809. The question of whether it will continue to rise is a concern for many traders.
I think there is an opportunity. First, the 50-basis-point rate hike in March is not set in stone. It is just a change in expectations. As Powell said, we need to pay attention to data, especially this Friday's non-farm payroll report. If employment data is weak on Friday, it does not support the Fed's continued high-intensity rate hikes. At that time, the expectation of a 50-basis-point rate hike will also cool down, and the gold price will rise accordingly. Secondly, from a medium to long-term perspective, I am still optimistic, because after multiple 50-basis-point rate hikes, the Fed's terminal interest rate is relatively high now, and it should be difficult to continue to raise rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the big cycle will gradually slow down the rate hikes.
Overall, I think there is no need to be too pessimistic. Short-term adjustments will only make subsequent rebounds more powerful. There are many events this week, and the probability of continued volatility is high. It is expected that gold will begin to rebound next week.
For short-term trading strategies this week, we should first look at the support level of $1809 below, with the first target level of $1845 and the second target level of $1860. I will update the article with detailed price levels and trading directions based on the market situation. I also welcome everyone to express their opinions. Follow me to make trading simpler!
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Continue to short gold.
Gold received a boost from the positive impact of initial jobless claims data, resulting in a short-term rally. The resistance level above is at 1225, and those holding short positions at 1819 can continue to do so, waiting for the market to return to the technical aspect and continue to decline. Additionally, it is possible to add short positions again around 1824-1825 and short directly at that level. The stop-loss can be set at 1830, with the target at 1810. During the profitable process, investors can choose their own take-profit points according to their risk tolerance.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold: Trading like this today can lead to profits
On the road to success, whether you take big strides or make small progress every day, as long as you persist, every step counts, and every drop of sweat is not in vain. Please believe that as long as you keep moving forward steadfastly, your goals will get closer and closer to you.
Yesterday, gold was under pressure and oscillated within the range of 1809-1823, without breaking through the resistance of 1823-1825. In terms of trading, we completed three profit-taking transactions yesterday.
As of now, the market is still oscillating around 1814, very similar to yesterday. Additionally, today is Thursday and the non-farm payroll data will be released tomorrow. It is highly likely that the market will continue to fluctuate within this range today, waiting for the impact of the data. Therefore, today we will focus on the support level of 1804-1809 and the resistance range of 1821-1825.
Specific trading strategies:
Buy near 1808-1813, take profit at 1820-1823
Sell short near 1823-1828, take profit at 1814-1809
If the market breaks through the resistance level of 1825 today, the target will be around 1831. If it falls below 1804, the target will be around 1800-1796 and 1785.
I will continue to track market trends and share trading strategies in real time. Thank you for your attention and support. If you have any questions, please leave a message in the comments section. I will provide you with the most reliable solution with a sincere and responsible attitude to help you solve the problem!
Wishing you a pleasant day!
Gold surged and then retreated, waiting to short at 1819.How to maximize profit in real-time gold trading today?
The gold market in the US session has been unable to hold its ground, with clear signs of weakness in the long positions, and the market is struggling to advance. The price briefly surged near 1822 but was quickly pushed down, with three failed attempts to break the resistance level. Overall, the market is in a weak consolidation phase.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is still under strong pressure, and the K-line has not been able to touch the moving average, indicating resistance to further price increases.
Therefore, my real-time short-term trading strategy focuses on selling short. I recommend buying a short position near 1819, with a stop loss at 1826 and a target price at 1809, the support level where we previously entered long positions.
Investors can choose their own profit-taking points during the process of making profits based on their trading styles.
Please note that the above is only a short-term trading opinion. If there are suitable opportunities, I will notify promptly.
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Entering a short position at 1819.
Currently, gold has reached the short selling position of 1819 mentioned in the previous article, so the strategy is to directly enter a short position.
It is recommended to short around 1819, with a stop loss at 1826 and a target price of 1809, which is our previous long support level.
Investors can choose their own profit-taking points according to their trading style during the profit-taking process.
Please note that the above is only a short-term trading opinion.
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Gold: Trading like this today will yield more profits
As expected, gold traded within the range of 1813-1823 in the last few hours yesterday and fell below 1813 today. Therefore, our first target is around 1804, as the trend has turned from bullish to bearish. When trading, it is mainly focused on shorting at high levels.
The chart is based on a 30-minute interval, and the first resistance to be faced today is near 1814. Only by breaking through it is it possible to touch the second resistance near 1823, and then possibly 1831.
1814 is considered the first resistance because it was originally a support level but has now been broken, turning into a resistance level. The same is true for 1823 and 1831.
To trade based on today's bearish sentiment, the specific strategy is as follows:
Start with a small amount of short trading near 1814. If there is a breakthrough, increase short positions in the range of 1819-1823, with TP set at 1813 and 1806, respectively.
When testing the support near 1804, if the support is effective, go long in the range of 1804-1806, with TP set at 1812 and 1819, respectively. Afterward, observe the resistance near 1823 to determine the next trading direction.
I will continue to track the market trends in real-time and share strategies. Thank you for your support and attention, and I hope you continue to follow me as it will contribute to the completeness of the trade. I will also share more interesting trading strategies for you to refer to! If you have any questions, please leave a message in the comments section, and I will provide you with the most reliable solution with the most serious and responsible attitude to help you solve the problem!
Wish you a pleasant day!
Long position in gold 1809 with bullish outlook.
We have entered a long position on Gold (XAU/USD) at 1809 and the current candle is showing a strong bullish momentum. Additionally, a Morning Star pattern has formed at the bottom of the chart, which is indicated by a bullish candle that engulfs the preceding bearish candle, followed by a Doji or spinning top. This combination of candlesticks is a signal of a potential bottom.
The immediate resistance level to watch is near 1833, and there is also the release of the Nonfarm ADP data in the evening, which is likely to push Gold to the 1833 level. The chart also shows a clear double-bottom formation, which supports a bullish outlook.
Our strategy is to hold on to our long positions with a target profit near 1833 and a stop loss at 1802.
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There will be a rebound after a sharp decline.
Gold has experienced a rapid decline in the short term due to market investors' concerns about Powell's speech and non-farm data, which led to an anticipated drop. However, after Powell's actual speech, gold did not rebound from the key support level of 1830 as expected by investors, but instead broke through this strong support level. This indicates that the overall market sentiment towards gold is pessimistic and not influenced by a small number of people, but the sharp and heavy drop this time was too much. Therefore, my personal opinion is to recommend buying on dips, entering the market with a small position, and taking advantage of the possibility of a rebound near the strong support level of around 1823 points, so investors can consider entering long positions around 1820-1823 with the first profit target at 1845 and the second profit target at 1852, with a stop loss around 1804.
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Excellent Buying Opportunity for Gold.
On the 4-hour chart of gold, it can be seen that the current candle is supported by the 4-hour Bollinger midline and is oscillating upward. At present, it is once again testing the support level of the previous high and Bollinger midline around 1845, which is an excellent long position to take advantage of! Don't miss this opportunity as it may not come again.
There is pressure in the 1860-70 range above, so it is best to consider a short position only after touching that level!
Specific strategy:
Go long on gold at 1845 with a stop loss at 1837 and a take profit at 1860. I believe there are still many friends who bought long positions around 1860 and may be trapped. You can also consider increasing your position around 1845 and gradually unlocking the profits. Similarly, those who bought long positions at 1850 can also add to their position around 1845 and wait for profit-taking to exit.
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The opportunity for gold next week is here.
Hey, do you remember the perfect curve pressure on gold we talked about a few days ago at 1860? It's getting close now, so how should we view it next?
It's still a bullish trend, but with the arrival of the pressure level, the short-term trend of gold is likely to be suppressed first and then rebounded.
Short-term trading strategy:
It is suggested to focus on buying on dips next week, with short selling as a supplement, and the short-term key resistance level is around 1860-1870. For those who are trapped, this may be an opportunity. (As I do not know where your position is trapped, I cannot provide corresponding strategies. It is recommended to discuss with me directly.)
The short-term key support level is around 1845-1840. You can confidently buy on dips.
I will also pay close attention to the non-farm data next week and provide recommendations. Welcome everyone to leave a message.
TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
Gold buying point is coming soon.
The essence of trading is not how much profit can be made in a single trade, but whether one can achieve long-term and stable profitability.
Gold encountered resistance near 1860 and fell back. It is about to reach the short-term support level of 1840-1845, which is in line with expectations. Therefore, the next step is to patiently wait for the support level to arrive.
In terms of operation, you can directly open a long position at 1840-1845 with a stop loss at 1832 and a target at 1860-1865.
If you have other ideas, feel free to leave a message and follow me to make trading easier.
Gold sneak attack today, the final direction is bullish
Trading, don't expect everyone to understand you. Even if you do well, not everyone will like you, and not everyone will praise you for what you do. After all, others care about the results and do not look at the hardships you have endured. The same words can have different meanings depending on the speaker, and the same eyes can see things differently; the same heart can have different thoughts. People can only do their best and have confidence in themselves. You should understand that the market doesn't have sympathy for the weak, and it doesn't believe in tears. Eagles don't need applause to soar; grass can grow even if no one cares for it; wildflowers in the mountains can still be fragrant even if no one appreciates them. You don't need to make people understand what you're doing, you just need to put your heart and soul into it. You don't need to be liked in trading, just be true to yourself! In trading, we need "virtue," and when dealing with people, we need "heart."
As shown in the daily chart, the bullish signal is supported at the 1843 area, and resistance is concentrated at the 1875 area. As the market trend changes too quickly, you should avoid blindly chasing the rise and fall. As for short selling, we suggest that you can repeatedly participate in the pressure you encounter. The overall trading strategy is as follows:
Resistance: 1853-1875 Support: 1820-1805
Today's trading range:
For an aggressive approach, you can enter a short position near the 1860-1865 area, with a stop loss at 1870.
You can enter a long position at the 1840-1843 area, with a stop loss at 1832.
