Gold maintains box oscillation structureSpot gold fluctuated in a narrow range in early Asian trading on Monday, currently trading around $2,911 per ounce. Gold prices had fluctuated at high levels for three consecutive trading days, but still rose 1.85% on a weekly basis, helped by safe-haven inflows and a U.S. jobs report showing lower-than-expected job growth in February, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year. In addition, the volatile tariff policy of U.S. President Trump has also increased market uncertainty.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said earlier on Friday that the Fed will be cautious about easing monetary policy, adding that the economy is "still in good shape" at the moment.
The easing of geopolitical tensions also limited the rise in gold prices, with some progress in a possible ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia. In the Middle East, U.S. President Trump continued to pressure Hamas to release hostages. Meanwhile, according to the World Gold Council, the People's Bank of China continued to buy gold. The People's Bank of China increased its holdings by 10 tons of gold in the first two months of 2025. However, the largest buyer was the Polish central bank, which added 29 tons of gold reserves, the largest purchase since it bought 95 tons of gold in June 2019.
Overall, the rise in gold prices last week once again highlighted its importance as a safe-haven asset. Although the market may face consolidation in the short term, geopolitical risks, inflation concerns and uncertainty about the Fed's policy will continue to support gold demand. The focus of the market is on the upcoming Fed meeting. In addition, inflation reports and retail sales data will also provide more clues to the market.
Gold maintains a wide range of shocks. The weekly line continues to maintain an upward trend structure, and the running price retreats above the MA7 daily moving average and closes higher. The daily chart continues to be cross-shaped. Gold rose sharply above the 2930 mark in the late trading and then formed a high-rise fall. It continues to maintain a wide range of shocks at a high level, and the long and short market will not continue to consolidate.
At present, the MA10/7 daily moving average of the daily chart is at 2902, and the Bollinger Bands are gradually shrinking, with the upper rail at 2956 and the lower rail at 2867. The gold price in the Asian session is at the Bollinger Band middle rail price at 2912. The short-term four-hour chart also shows that the Bollinger Bands continue to close the upper rail at 2927 and the lower rail at 2900. The RSI indicator is in the middle axis 50 value consolidation, and the K-line pattern is alternating between long and short cycles.
The Asian session gold price continues the rebound trend of the NFP market. There are only two operating points in the Asian session. One is to wait for the gold price to continue to rise and reach the pressure of the 2930 range to sell, and the other is to wait for the gold price to adjust and reach the 2900 range to buy. However, the rebound is expected to reach the pressure of the upper 2930 line first, so the opportunity for us to go short is greater than that for going long. At present, the gold price is at the middle level of the range and needs to continue to wait!
Key points:
First support: 2903, second support: 2892, third support: 2882
First resistance: 2920, second resistance: 2928, third resistance: 2940
Operation ideas:
Buy: 2903-2905, SL: 2894, TP: 2920-2930;
Sell: 2929-2931, SL: 2940, TP: 2910-2900;
