XAU/USD 23 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Despite price printing it's first indication of bearish pullback phase initiation, price continued bullish.
Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions, have influenced market sentiment such as the Fed's recent interest rate decision (reduction) which typically supports Gold prices. Therefore, price is expected to remain highly volatile.
From a structural perspective, price is within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line. Since previous analysis price has continued bullish, as a result, CHoCH positioning has been brought closer to recent price action.
Intraday expectation: Due to volatility, price could continue bullish, however, price could also initiate bearish pullback, therefore, I will be standing by.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has printed a double bullish iBOS since last analysis.
Internal range is now established since price has printed a bearish CHoCH indicating bearing pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish and react at either discount of internal 50% EQ of M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
Alternative scenario: Due to all HTF's requiring a pullback, it would not surprise me if price printed a bearish iBOS.
M15 Chart:
Goldintraday
Analysis of gold price trend on FridayGold fluctuated at a high level on Friday and is currently trading around 2597. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, reaching an intraday high of 2594, approaching the historical high set on Wednesday. Although the performance of U.S. initial jobless claims was good, which once put pressure on gold prices during the session, the Federal Reserve launched a monetary easing cycle, which still attracted bargain-hunting buying to support gold prices, and data showed that the U.S. real estate market was still struggling; in addition, the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Lebanon attracted safe-haven funds to support gold.
The U.S. dollar fell in volatile trading on Thursday, providing support for gold prices. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.38% to 100.64 on Thursday after reversing the early gains; the market struggled to digest the Federal Reserve's sharp 50 basis point interest rate cut and the shift to an accommodative monetary policy stance. If you combine geopolitical risks with our current deficits, coupled with a low-yield environment and a weaker U.S. dollar, the combination of all these factors is the reason for the sharp rise in gold.
It should be noted that data showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week fell to the lowest level in four months, and the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to the level since early June, suggesting that employment growth in September was solid and confirming that the economy continued to expand in the third quarter. This may limit the upside of gold prices. Investors need to pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan on this trading day, pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation and speeches of Federal Reserve officials.
Technical side, gold has experienced a roller coaster ride and then rose sharply on Thursday, with prices rushing back above 2590. The daily line pattern is quite ugly, forming a red and blue alternation. The daily chart ended with a strong positive, and the price once again stood above the MA7/10 daily moving average at 2574/55. The price stood on the middle of the Bollinger band again and was in the current upper track channel. The RSI indicator was adjusted above the middle axis. Considering the large amplitude of the adjustment range, Friday's trading reference 2570/2600 intraday shock layout
Asian trading strategy:
2570-2573 long, stop loss 2562, target 2590-2600;
2596-2600 short, stop loss 2609, target 2580-2570;
9.20 gold short-term operation technical analysis Gold reversed in a deep V yesterday. Gold fell back to support and then rose again. It seems that gold bulls still have the momentum to continue to rise for the time being. Go long first when gold falls back in the early trading.
Gold's 30-minute moving average entered the golden cross pattern. Gold rose after falling yesterday. Gold bulls once again accumulated momentum to rise. It is still expected to continue to challenge new highs. Gold fell to 2569 last night and then rose directly.
Gold is currently high. After the Fed's interest rate decision, it adjusted deeply. Gold rose again. After the adjustment, gold fell back to support and continued to rise. There was no further decline, indicating that it is still in the stage of bull accumulation. Gold is expected to continue to rise; after breaking through the new high, it will accelerate.
Today's operation strategy
2595 short stop loss 2600. Target 2580-2570
2572 long, stop loss 2562, target 2590-2600;
Gold's Wild Ride: Rebound Completed, Time to Short Again
Crazy gold! The market has regained all of yesterday’s losses in today’s rally. This market is always full of surprises!
Now it's clear that the resistance at 2600 is very strong. Since it couldn't break through, it's time to switch back to short positions. What rose from here is likely to fall back down to the same level.
Sell, with a target profit (TP) at 2572.
Gold: Corrective Rebound Expected Before Further Decline
Yesterday, gold experienced extreme volatility, surging before a sharp sell-off. Today, the market should see less fluctuation as much of the news has been priced in. However, another key report is expected during New York trading hours, and I believe short positions will be more favorable following its release.
Before the data comes out, a long position could be effective, given the steep decline yesterday. There is likely to be a corrective bounce as buyers step in to capitalize on the sharp drop, so I see going long ahead of the news as a good move.
Analysis of gold price trend on WednesdayGold is now priced around 2570. Gold prices fell slightly from their all-time highs in the previous trading day as the U.S. retail sales monthly rate in August was stronger than market expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, and some traders took profits on long orders in preparation for the Fed's possible rate cut decision this week.
The unexpected growth in U.S. retail sales in August, with the decline in auto dealer sales overshadowed by strong online shopping, showed that the U.S. economy remained solid for most of the third quarter, which put pressure on safe-haven gold. The previously released retail sales data was better than expected, which seemed to support the Fed's less aggressive stance. It is widely expected that the Fed will announce its first rate cut in more than four years. The last time the Fed cut interest rates was in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
It should be reminded that the market has partially digested the Fed's expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, so whether it is a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut, investors need to beware of the emergence of a "boot landing" market, when a large number of long orders may take the opportunity to take profits, thereby dragging down the price of gold. Similar market conditions have occurred many times in history: before the Fed cut interest rates, gold prices continued to rise due to the expectation of interest rate cuts, but after the Fed actually cut interest rates, gold prices fluctuated and weakened.
Technically, gold has not changed much, and it still fluctuates widely. The daily chart is adjusted at a high level, and the indicators are repaired. MA10/7/5 day moving averages still open upward. The short-term four-hour chart and hourly chart RSI indicators have been overbought for a long time and then returned to the central axis for repair and adjustment. The four-hour Bollinger Bands closed, and the price was consolidated around the middle track. Gold bottomed out and rebounded, and the intraday trading idea is to sell high and buy low. Please do not trade when the news is released!
Trading strategy:
2560-2562 long, stop loss 2551, target 2580-2590;
2585-2587 short, stop loss 2596, target 2560-2570;
9.19 Gold Short-term Operation StrategyThe Fed's interest rate decision will be announced in two hours. Will gold hit a new high or a correction?
On the 1-hour chart, you can see that there is a minor resistance level near the 2575 level, and there is also a downward trend line converging. If the price pulls back to this resistance level, sellers may intervene, aiming to fall to the 2548 support level. On the other hand, buyers want to see prices break higher to increase bullish bets and pursue new highs
, if the Fed eventually chooses to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the market may react quickly, causing the US dollar to rebound. But if the Fed is as dovish as the market expects, cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, and sends signals of more interest rate cuts in the future, the US dollar will weaken further, pushing gold prices higher again, even breaking through the $2,600/ounce mark. Although the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, there is still uncertainty about the magnitude and subsequent policy guidance. If the rate cut is only 25 basis points, it may suppress the short-term demand for gold, and investors will turn to wait and see. If the Fed's policy tends to be cautious, the safe-haven demand for gold may weaken, leading to a short-term sell-off in the market. If the Fed eventually cuts interest rates significantly and signals further easing in the future, gold will benefit from the continued weakening of the dollar and break through historical highs. At the same time, global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks will continue to provide long-term safe-haven demand support for gold.
9.18 Gold Short-term Operation StrategyGold rebounded from a high level and built a top. Don't chase long easily. Gold rebound is an opportunity for shorts. The Fed's interest rate decision and the expectation of interest rate cuts are about to be fulfilled. The positive news for gold is fulfilled and it may rise and fall.
Gold broke down after repeated fluctuations at a high level in 1 hour. The top structure is obvious. The gold 1 hour moving average also began to turn around. The gold 1 hour moving average formed a dead cross, so there is more room for gold to fall and adjust. Gold rebounded last night but did not break through the resistance of 2582. In the morning, it continued to go short at highs under the resistance of 2582.
Strategy:
SELL: 2575 stop loss; 2582
XAU/EUR "GOLD MINES" Bearish Robbery Plan to steal GoldHola ola My Dear 🤑💰,
Robbers / Money Makers & Losers,
This is our master plan to Heist XAU/EUR "GOLD MINES" based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich 💰.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing High
Stop Loss 🛑: Recent Swing High using 30m timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
9.17 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsIn the four-hour chart, the price recovered the upper line and ran below the upper line. The short-term support is at the acceleration line 2573. If it breaks down here, it also indicates that the lower line of the hourly chart will break. Once it breaks, it will resonate downward, at least testing the support of the 2562-50 line. Secondly, from the four-hour moving average chart, the 5-10-day dead cross is downward, and the auxiliary indicator MACD is dead cross at a high level. The hourly chart counterattacks the upper line and turns short for the second time, which is the best time to short, and it is also a reasonable position to reduce positions. Once it breaks down, the overnight closing price of 2579-80 is basically rebounded, which is to add shorts. So as long as you hold 2590 to see that the adjustment remains unchanged, wait for 2600 or above after the breakthrough to make arrangements.
Strategy:
2585-88 area short, loss 92, look at 73-68-62-50. Break down 73 and rebound 80 and short loss 85
9.17 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsAfter rising for three consecutive trading days, the price of gold rose again yesterday to a record high of $2,589 per ounce, close to the $2,600 mark, but it did not break through again. After encountering resistance and retreating, the final price closed at around $2,582. Overall, it still maintained a high level of consolidation.
There is no doubt that the rise in gold prices for three consecutive trading days has already indicated that the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates, and it also indicates that the expectation of further interest rate cuts is in place. The market is concerned about how many basis points the interest rate cut will be, which is not so important because the trends of various varieties are digested in advance.
Yesterday, the price of gold rose to $2,589, and then encountered resistance and retreated. The daily line recorded a small positive cross star. The current price remains above the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. The moving averages of each period are arranged in a bullish pattern. The Bollinger Bands remain open as a whole. The MACD double lines rise, and the red kinetic energy column increases, which is in line with the development of the K-line. At present, the daily line still tends to be bullish.
Since technical indicators have a lag, it will be too late to wait until the price retreats or turns to short. Yesterday's high of $2589 is effective pressure. Looking further up is the $2600 mark, $2606. It is uncertain whether it can be reached. If it can be reached, you can intervene to short and wait for a retracement. The primary support below (short-term target) is $2560.
Today's short-term operation strategy;
Sell at 2585, stop loss at 2590
Buy at 2555, stop loss at 2550
9.17 Gold Short-term Operation GuideAfter gold hit the high point of 2580-90 last week, it basically maintained a consolidation trend at the opening of this Monday. As of now, it is still above 2582 as the high point, and it is consolidating in the range of 70-90.
At present, many people think that the interest rate decision on Thursday will be a node, but not. I think the GDP data will be a window for a change.
Then, institutions may take advantage of the opportunity to buy and pull up again.
2580 is also a support in the 4-hour chart of gold. If it falls below the moving average support here, it is likely to test 2855-50 later.
9.16 Gold Short-term Operation GuideOn Friday, gold rose directly along the 2556 line in the early trading, rose to the 73 line in the European trading, and then fell back. In the evening, it rose again to the 80 line and then fell back. It hit a high of 86 in the late trading and then fell back slightly. Finally, the daily chart closed at 2579 with a big positive line.
Looking back at Friday, the price basically went up in a step-by-step manner. There were corresponding adjustments at each suppression point, but the overall trend was still dominated by bulls. The cyclical double positive continued in terms of form. From the current market, the trend remains unchanged, but the market does not only rise but not fall. If we look at the symmetrical cycle of the form, today's expected rise and fall will close in the negative. However, the market broke through the big positive line last week, and it is not realistic to directly reverse the trend in the short term. The previous platform consolidation has become an important support for the re-upward movement. The daily chart reaches the upper acceleration line suppression area, followed by the oblique pressure of 2597. After the four-hour shock to the breakthrough of the upper line and the acceleration line, the short-term indicators have been seriously overbought, so today I am optimistic about the rise and fall, and the lower 30-minute lower line on Friday formed support for the upward movement. Today, the key support is here on the hourly chart lower line, followed by the four-hour upper line, so today's operation is long first and then short.
Short term operations:
BUY 2567, loss 2561, target 2582-92-97.
SELL2597, loss 2603, target 2573-67-62-55
9.13 Gold Short-term AnalysisGold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, hitting a record high of $2,559.98 per ounce and closing at $2,558.54 per ounce, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, after data showed a slowdown in the U.S. economy. In addition, the European Central Bank's rate cut also reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, and geopolitical concerns continue to provide safe-haven buying support for gold prices. Considering the possibility of profit-taking on Friday, we will patiently pay attention to the strength of profit-taking in gold today.
Market expectations have increased that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 17-18 meeting. The probability of a 25 basis point cut is 73%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 27%. This expectation has driven gold's rise because the low interest rate environment makes gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset.
The European Central Bank announced another rate cut on Thursday, lowering the deposit rate to 3.50%. This decision is closely related to the background of weak economic growth and slowing inflation in the eurozone. The ECB's rate cut reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, further enhancing its attractiveness.
In addition to economic data, geopolitical tensions also have an important impact on gold prices. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Moscow may restrict exports of uranium, titanium and nickel in retaliation against Western countries. The statement has raised market concerns about the global supply chain, further boosting safe-haven demand for gold.
XAUUSD: 11/9 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2550, support below 2450
Four-hour resistance 2530, support below 2493
Gold operation suggestions: Yesterday, the technical side of gold fluctuated and stabilized at the 2500 mark, ushering in a strong bottoming out and rebounding for many days, and closed above resistance. The overall price of the daily chart continued the recent wide range of long and short fluctuations, and the moving average system also moved closer to the bulls. In the short term, it once again approached the previous high point, and whether it can continue to break through this time is still an unknown.
Today, the support below focuses on the 2500-05 area, and the pressure above focuses on the 2525-2530 area. This position is also an important breakthrough point in the European session, and the support below is maintained at the low point of 2500-2505, which was retreated many times yesterday. Once this position continues to break down, the short position in the later period will also be likely to continue to open up space, and the first target below is maintained near 2460-2470. The NY market also has CPI data, which is likely to change the entire situation again. Continue to rely on this range to maintain the rhythm of the layout of the long and short wide range of shocks.
BUY:2494near SL:2490
BUY:2510near SL:2505
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
Today's strategy is running in the range of 2500~2530The price fluctuated in a narrow range on Thursday, and the current price is around 2516. Gold prices rose and fell on Wednesday, supported by safe-haven buying. Gold prices rose to around 2529 earlier in the session on Wednesday, approaching the historical high, but after the US CPI data, gold gave up its gains and fell to around the 2500 mark at one point, as US inflation data prompted investors to reduce their expectations of the Federal Reserve's super-large interest rate cut next week, and the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthened.
Higher-than-expected US core inflation data will become a problem for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next Wednesday. The focus now is on the core CPI monthly rate data, which tends to increase concerns about stubborn inflation. Those among the FOMC members who are worried about monetary policy turning too fast or too decisively will certainly strongly oppose a 50 basis point rate cut next week. This is expected to provide some support for gold prices, as a rate cut will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
The US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Thursday, which may also help the market assess the scale of the Federal Reserve's September rate cut. In addition, investors are also paying attention to the US initial jobless claims report. We also need to pay attention to the ECB's interest rate decision and news related to the geopolitical situation.
Technical aspect: Gold closed slightly lower yesterday, ending the two-day long bullish trend. The 20-cycle Bollinger Bands on the daily chart continued to shrink and the upper and lower tracks were compressed to 2527/2487. The RSI indicator was flat around the middle axis, and the MA10/7-day moving average was glued. There was no obvious trend in the short term, and the high-level wide fluctuations may continue. Continue to refer to the 2500-2530 range for high selling and low buying during the day.
Trading strategy:
2496-2500 long, stop loss 2488, target 2520-2530;
2526-2530 short, stop loss 2539, target 2500-2490;
See below for more signals
Analysis of 9.12 Gold Short-term Operation StrategySpot gold is currently trading around $25,118.46/oz, with a narrow range of fluctuations on Thursday (September 12). Gold prices rose and fell on Wednesday, supported by safe-haven buying. Gold prices rose to around $2,529 earlier in the session on Wednesday, approaching historical highs, but after the U.S. CPI data, gold prices gave up gains and fell to around the 2,500 mark, closing at $2,511.33/oz, as U.S. inflation data prompted investors to scale back expectations for the Fed's super-large rate cut next week, and the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthened.
First: Data, wash; before large data, gold prices have no external stimulation and it is difficult to form range fluctuations; what is large data, such as the mid-month interest rate meeting, such as the U.S. election in October, such as the Middle East war, the risk aversion of the Russian-Ukrainian war; therefore, these small data, like "ants shaking a big tree", are difficult to change the trend of the market; but they will form a wash trend;
Second: On the market, the overall market is consolidating in the large range of 2470-2530; and it is controlled by bulls; this is the core; after several weeks of trend, the market is resistant to decline and it is difficult to form a sharp drop; without the emergence of strong negative fundamentals, it is not enough to change this high-range consolidation and high-range resistance to decline trend;
In terms of data, small data are mainly for washing; on the market, it is high-range consolidation and high-range oscillation; understand this, at least it will not be very wrong; grasp the market trend, it will be relatively easy to do
Detailed intraday operation strategy:
Gold rebounds to 2522 short, defend 2530, target 2510-2500
Gold falls back to 2480 to go long, defend 2472, target 2490-2500
Analysis of gold price trend on WednesdayGold continued to rise on Wednesday, and the current price is around 2526. Gold prices continued to rise by about 0.42% on Tuesday, rising for two consecutive trading days. U.S. Treasury yields continued to weaken, hitting a 15-month low, providing momentum for gold prices to rise; the geopolitical situation remains tense, which also attracts safe-haven buying to support gold.
Currently, market participants are preparing for the release of U.S. inflation data to find further clues on the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut next week. If the core CPI rises by 0.4% or more month-on-month, U.S. Treasury yields may rebound, causing gold to lose its footing. On the other hand, if the data is equal to or lower than market expectations, it may make it difficult for the dollar to attract investors, thereby helping gold to rise.
It should be reminded that the U.S. dollar index fluctuated narrowly on Tuesday, holding on to the gains of the previous two trading days, which made gold bulls still cautious. The market is paying attention to the U.S. presidential candidate debate and inflation data. If Trump wins, the dollar will rise, tariffs may support the dollar, and increased fiscal spending may boost interest rates.
Technical aspect
Gold still maintains a bullish structure, with continuous daily increases. The New York closing price is above the MA10 daily average line of 2506, above the middle axis of the RSI indicator, and above the middle track of the Bollinger band and the 5-day average line of 2510. The short-term four-hour chart shows a continuous positive structure above the 2500 mark, the moving average system golden cross opens upward, and the RSI indicator hooks upward. Technically, gold maintains a bullish structure. The heavy data CPI in the US market needs to focus on the impact on the trend of the gold and silver markets. This data is comparable to the non-agricultural data and even better. At that time, the market volatility will increase.
Trading strategy:
2503-2505 long, target 2520-2530;
2525-2528 short, target 2500-2490;
Check out my profile for more free sharing and profits.
Tuesday Market Analysis and SignalsGold fluctuated in a narrow range on Tuesday, and the current price is around 2,500. Gold prices rebounded slightly on Monday, rising above the 2,500 mark. The rebound of U.S. Treasury yields was blocked, providing gold prices with a rebound opportunity, but the rebound of the U.S. dollar index limited the rise of gold. Investors are waiting for the U.S. inflation report to provide further clues to the scale of the Fed's possible rate cut.
Investors are now paying attention to the U.S. consumer price data for August to be released on Wednesday and the producer price index on Thursday. A report released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed that the U.S. public's expectations of inflation pressure in August did not change much as current price pressures continued to fall.
Technical side
Yesterday, gold formed a bottoming out and rebounded, and it turned to long and maintained a strong closing. The price once again stood above the 2,500 mark, and the RSI indicator remained above the central axis. The short-term four-hour chart once again stood above the middle track of the Bollinger band and the moving average, and the RSI indicator broke through the central axis and hooked upward. The hourly moving average opened upward, and the Bollinger band opened upward. Gold technically formed a bottoming out and rebounded strongly at the end of the day, and the intraday trading callback was low and long. The overall rhythm is expected to rise first and then fall.
Trading strategy:
2488-2490 long, stop loss 2479, target 2510-2520;
2518-2520 short, stop loss 2529, target 2500-2490;
For more signals and analysis, please check my profile
9.10 Analysis of gold short-term operation strategiesIsrael airstrikes Syria, gold price regains 2500 mark: gold price may consolidate in the short term
On Monday (September 9), spot gold rebounded sharply after falling to $2485/oz, and finally closed above 2500, closing at $2506.04/oz. ,, Gold prices soared above $2500/oz on Monday as traders prepared for the release of the US August inflation report and looked for hints that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 or 25 basis points. Gold traders ignored the overall strength of the US dollar. The US dollar index, which measures the performance of the US dollar against six currencies, rose by more than 0.30%.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 73%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 27%.
At the end of the Asian market on Monday, spot gold fell to $2485.48/oz, hitting an intraday low. Gold prices then continued to rebound. As of the close of Monday, spot gold climbed $8.84, or 0.35%, to $2,506.09 per ounce.
The situation in the Middle East remains tense, which provides momentum for gold prices to rebound.
Israel's air strikes on central Syria on September 8 local time killed at least 14 people. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spoke out on September 9 local time, condemning the Israeli army for launching a "criminal attack" and calling on Israel's supporters to stop arming it.
According to the Israeli Times, citing Syrian media reports, Israel launched a series of attacks on several areas in central Syria on the night of August 8 local time, killing at least 14 people and injuring 43 people
This may become a trigger for the gold trend!
How to trade gold?
Gold prices resumed their upward trend and broke through $2,500 per ounce, but gold prices are still below $2,510 per ounce, and buyers seem to have failed to accumulate momentum.
Momentum remains bullish, but gold may consolidate in the short term before resuming its upward trend or turning downward. The relative strength index (RSI) is almost flat, indicating that neither buyers nor sellers are in control of the situation.
If gold climbs above its year-to-date high of $2,531/oz, it could push it to challenge $2,550/oz. If it breaks through the latter, the next target will be the psychological level of $2,600/oz.
If gold falls below $2,500/oz, the next support level will be the August 22 low of $2,470/oz.
If gold falls below $2,470/oz, the next support area will be the confluence of the May 20 high (which has turned into support) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), between $2,450-2,440/oz
Monday Market Analysis and SignalsGold fluctuated in a narrow range in the Asian market on Monday, now around 2497. Gold prices rose and fell last Friday, because the number of new non-agricultural jobs was lower than expected. Gold prices hit a three-week high of around 2529, approaching the historical high, but soon gave up the gains because the unemployment rate fell and the Fed's "No. 3" did not send a signal of a 50 basis point interest rate cut to the market, which made the market doubt the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut later this month.
The lower-than-expected employment growth in August, in addition to the reduction in job vacancies indicating weakening demand, may also reflect a seasonal anomaly, that is, August employment growth is often lower than consensus expectations at first, and will be revised upward later. Affected by the decline in new jobs and Waller's speech, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell last Friday, hitting a 15-month low in volatile trading earlier in the session, which still provides some support for gold.
This week will usher in the US August CPI data, investors need to focus on the performance of the data and pay attention to changes in market expectations. This week will also usher in the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, which investors also need to pay attention to. The vast majority of economists expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on September 12, and cut interest rates again in December. This may provide some support for gold prices, as rate cuts will reduce the cost of holding gold.
Technically, the daily line fell again, and the weekly and daily RSI indicators still remained above the central axis. Secondly, the moving average system did not appear to cross and open downward. Overall, gold continued to fluctuate widely at high levels at the beginning of this week. In terms of operation, high-altitude is the main focus, and low-long is only short-term participation at this high level. Be careful of gold diving at any time.
Trading strategy:
2478-2480 long, stop loss 2468, target 2500-2510;
2512-2514 short, stop loss 2519, target 2490-2480;
Check out my profile for more free sharing and profits.